OOC results vs. expectations

[The Equalizer]

I said worse. I expected us to beat Georgia and had everything else correct. I still think we beat Georgia 7/10 in that situation, but it wasn't our day. I'm satisfied with results, largely because we beat VCU (you all know my thoughts there) and didn't take any truly bad losses, but I wanted the matchup with Michigan (though beating LSU is an acceptable substitute) and felt 10 wins was realistic.

According to RPI Wizard, after beating VCU but losing to Georgia, our projected RPI is 70.3, with a projected SOS of 29.

Had we beat Georgia, lost to VCU, then won the two games against Michigan and California in the consolation bracket in Maui, our projected RPI would be 60, with an SOS of 36.

I think this shows that you simply can't make up RPI ground lost by losing home games with a marginally more difficult SOS. Losing home games to Georgia and Purdue killed our RPI, and beating VCU in order to have our asses handed to us by Wichita State didn't make up for it. 

At the end of the year, putting all the debate about beating VCU aside, it turns out that the home game against Georgia will be the most important game of the season for us. 

[bilsu]

I am happy with the 9-3 non-conference season, but I do not think we beat anyone that will earn an at-large bid in NCAA tournament.

[brewcity77]

Had we beat Georgia, lost to VCU, then won the two games against Michigan and California in the consolation bracket in Maui, our projected RPI would be 60, with an SOS of 36.

This is a logical fallacy. The difference of who we played in Maui was not contingent on the Georgia outcome like it was the VCU outcome. Georgia must be treated as independent. Also, there's no guarantee we get two wins after the VCU loss. Every reasonable metric would have us as an underdog to Michigan, so that's two fallacious assumptions in one post.

[wadesworld]

The biggest game of the season is Wednesday, 12/27/17 against Xavier.

[brewcity77]

If you go with the exact percentages per RPI Wizard the rest of the way, we would have a 7-11 conference record and finish the regular season 16-14 (11-7). We would have an RPI of 73 and SOS of 30.

If you assume a loss to VCU, the logical follow-through would be a win over California and a loss to Michigan (we are rated lower in kenpom, Sagarin, RPI, Massey, etc). That would give us a record of 15-15 (11-7) with an RPI of 89 and SOS of 37.

So, the VCU win nets us an RPI improvement of 16 spots and SOS boost of 7 spots.

If you simply turn the Georgia loss into a win, we finish 17-13 (11-7) with an RPI of 61 and SOS of 28. Winning the Georgia game would net us an RPI improvement of 12 spots and SOS boost of 2 spots (don't ask me how the calculation figured that us beating Georgia, and thus worsening their record despite no other changes would give us a better SOS).

Regardless, we have to remember that while the VCU and subsequent Maui games have a direct relation to each other, the Georgia game is completely independent. We also have to remember that if we are solely using the predictors as accurate (which we must assume to normalize the conference record) then we must also assume a loss to Michigan and a 1-2 record in Maui.

Listen, no one is saying winning at home isn't important. All things being equal, I would rather go 9-9 in conference play with 9 wins at home and 9 losses on the road than any other permutation of 9-9. You benefit more from winning the games at home and losing the games on the road than you do losing at home and winning on the road. Road wins are valuable, but home wins are more important.

But that's all irrelevant now. We lost to Georgia. It sucks, but it has no bearing on any other game and it has less impact than the expected results had we lost to VCU as opposed the the real results we earned from beating VCU.

[Loose Cannon]

The biggest game of the season is Wednesday, 12/27/17 against Xavier.

Never ever Tired of hearing This.

[MU82]

The biggest game of the season is Wednesday, 12/27/17 against Xavier.

Says the guy who in another thread just claimed the Panthers were inferior to the Packers because of GB's past glories. Never mind that the Panthers eliminated the Packers from the playoffs 6 days ago!

[real chili 83]

The biggest game of the season is Wednesday, 12/27/17 against Xavier.

Yep, we gotta score more points than them.

[wadesworld]

Says the guy who in another thread just claimed the Panthers were inferior to the Packers because of GB's past glories. Never mind that the Panthers eliminated the Packers from the playoffs 6 days ago!

Congrats! Your team was able to have a better season than a team who lost the best player in football for half the season!

I understand your excitement in needing to bring the NFL thread over to MU basketball. It is very, very rare the Panthers have a better season than the Packers. Congrats again!

[MU82]

Congrats! Your team was able to have a better season than a team who lost the best player in football for half the season!

I understand your excitement in needing to bring the NFL thread over to MU basketball. It is very, very rare the Panthers have a better season than the Packers. Congrats again!

Very rare. Only 2 out of the last 3 years.

I accept your congratulations.

And I agree about X being the biggest game!

(He said, smoothly moving back to the topic.)

[wadesworld]

Very rare. Only 2 out of the last 3 years.

I accept your congratulations.

And I agree about X being the biggest game!

(He said, smoothly moving back to the topic.)

Woo hoo!  2 out of the last 3 years!  Congrats!  The Panthers will have a season that lasts longer than the Packers for a whopping 4th time in their franchise history!  Super exciting!

Again, let me know the next time the Panthers win something, because the next time will be the first time!

[MU82]

Woo hoo!  2 out of the last 3 years!  Congrats!  The Panthers will have a season that lasts longer than the Packers for a whopping 4th time in their franchise history!  Super exciting!

Again, let me know the next time the Panthers win something, because the next time will be the first time!

A great person has said (repeatedly) that the next game is all that matters!

[wadesworld]

A great person has said (repeatedly) that the next game is all that matters!

Who's that?