Shall we feast on the BEast?

[Real Chilly Podcast]

Come one, come all, to feast
On our schedule in the BEast
On Froling we'll count
For the comebacks we'll mount
And our rankings shall rise like yeast!


Ok that was a weak attempt at limerick, but Anonymous Eagle's Andy Fleck certainly has a better command of MU's Big East outlook than the Real Chilly Pod does of the English language.

THAT'S RIGHT! The Real Chilly Pod and Anonymous Eagle have collaborated for a Big East Preview episode, and it's a doozy. Not just for basketball insight, but as a gauge of the copious amounts of Golden Kool-Aid flowing through the veins of MU faithful after that drubbing of Becky at the Kohl's Return Desk.

Not to give a total spoiler alert, but all four podders on this episode forsee Marquette finishing with a Big East record that would afford us a NCAA Tourney bid. 

SO -- come and sip yourself some MU Kool-Aid along with us on this podcast, or bring your most devilish advocacy and tell us why we're homers.


iTunes:  https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/podcasts-real-chilly/id1161254067
SoundCloud:  https://soundcloud.com/user-454605464/the-big-east-preview-pod-with-anonymous-eagle
YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOX3p-vvnaI&feature=youtu.be

[Silkk the Shaka]

I look at the BEast schedule broken into 5 chunks

1.) Must win

DePaul 2x GTown 2x

Can't win all 4 of those, and we'll probably need to get to 11-7 in conference to be in or snag a massive road win against Nova/X

2.) Tier 2 high confidence

Home games against:

Providence
Butler
St. John's
Creighton

I rank Butler, Providence, St. John's, Creighton from most to least likely

Win 4/4 (entirely reasonable) that gets us to 8 wins right there with a ton of room for error
Win 3/4, gets us to 7, and we have some work left to do
Win 2/4, that gets us to 6 and we're in some trouble

3.) Mid Tier Fighting chance

Road games against Providence, Butler, Creighton

I think we have a good chance to take 2/3 here, with Butler & Providnce being the most likely

If we sweep the first 2 tiers, 2/3 here is lock city. 1/3 would likely get us in too.

If we go 3/4 in tier 2, 2/3 here likely gets us in, while 1/3 leaves work to do.

4.) Bad matchups - low probability

Home games against Xavier & Seton Hall, on the road vs. St. John's

Xavier can score at will and we have a mediocre D to say the least, Seton Hall has an inside presence and slashing wings that could eat us alive, and St. John's is the type of team that causes us a lot of trouble and I see us shooting poorly in their gym.

0/3 here not a disaster but would require near-perfection in tiers 1-3 or a miracle in tier 4. 1/3 here would be great, and gives us room for error elsewhere. 2/3 and I don't see any way we miss the tourney unless tiers 1 & 2 are a train wreck. 3/3 and we're likely a top 6 seed in March.

5.) Virtual write-offs

On the road against Nova, Xavier, Seton Hall, and home against Nova

Any win here is gravy for tourey seeding, or lipstick on a pig loss to DePaul or GTown.



Gun to my head, I say we go

Tier 1: 4/4
Tier 2: 3/4
Tier 3: 2/3
Tier 4: 1/3
Tier 5: 0/4

That gets us to 10-8 & safely in as an 8/9 seed with ability to move up a seed based on MSG performance

10% chance we go 7-11, 10% chance of 8-10, 20% chance of 9-9

on the upside, 15% chance of 11-7, 10% chance of 12-6, 5% chance of 13-5

[MUBigDance]

First, thanks for the podcast...its not been on my radar but will seek it out more. A real service to us fans like painttouches, anonymousE.

EFR, I've been thinking a similar structure but its not jelled. Obviously, Road less likely than home but didnt split it that way...so my 2 cents:

1. From what I've watched and read....I really think we are better than these teams:
DP, GT, BT, PV
They aren't all equal but we are better than all of them I think.
6-2 minimum

2. These teams we're close to but I just don't know...STJ is a real mystery. Saw some of a game and STJ was good...and losses against quality teams. Are they back?
SH, STJ, CR
Could go both ways against each of these.
minimum 3-3

3. The Elites...Nova is the best but every game will require a special effort to get close.
X, VN
But I think we win one!
minimum 1-3


TOTAL 10-8.....but I suspect MU is better than we think.

[brewcity77]

1.) Must win

DePaul 2x GTown 2x

Can't win all 4 of those, and we'll probably need to get to 11-7 in conference to be in or snag a massive road win against Nova/X

That's just not how it works. Not at all. Conference records matters, how you get it doesn't. 9-9 is likely enough, 10-8 makes us a lock. If we lose to DePaul or Georgetown, we'll have to pick one up against Xavier, Nova, or a road game we don't expect. You don't need bonus wins because of a bad loss. The only time that applies is if it tangibly affects your schedule like VCU did.