Pomeroy Preseason Rankings

[brewcity77]

A 7th place and 9-9 BE isn't a lock to miss the tourney.

Agreed. I think 9-9 in the Big East and 19 wins gets us in, certainly has us on the bubble at worst. That would likely include a minimum of 6 top-100 wins. The Big East could get as many as 7 teams in this year, and honestly I expect 6.

[bilsu]

I think a 9-9 team would need to pick up two Big East tournament wins to get a bid. Creighton was 9-9 last year and got an NIT bid.

[brewcity77]

I think a 9-9 team would need to pick up two Big East tournament wins to get a bid. Creighton was 9-9 last year and got an NIT bid.

Creighton played a crap non-con schedule last year. Their best non-con win was over a bad Nebraska team. Their 9 wins only included three over tourney teams. Comparing their resume last year and what ours would be with 19 wins and a 9-9 conference record this year is completely flawed. The two aren't even remotely similar.

[Brewtown Andy]

A 7th place and 9-9 BE isn't a lock to miss the tourney.

Particularly in the scenario of 3-4-5 at 10-8 and 6-7 at 9-9.  Heck, depending on the variables of who the wins are actually against, a 10-8 team might miss while a 9-9 gets in.

[Marcus92]

The Big East could get as many as 7 teams in this year, and honestly I expect 6.

The Big East could get 7. But I don't think it's likely — depends on how we do collectively during the non-conference schedule. Five bids seems like a safe assumption, with a good possibility for 6 this year.

Making it back to the tournament would be a big step this year, even if we finish 7th. Last team in, who cares? You're in. At this point, that's enough. But I also want to finish in the top half of the Big East as soon as possible — another important step.

[MUBigDance]

I've got a question:

So lets say Kenpom is vaguely correct (Seton Hall will have to prove 38 to me)..but in general, lets say its correct.

Then we have:
7 games against top 25
8 games against 26-50 (split the SMU/Pitt at 50)
4 games against 51-64

6 games in the 100s
3 games in the 200s
2 games in the 300s

if we lose only one >100 (10-1) and split the 1-64 (9-10)
and win 1 in the BET. that's 20wins (20-12).

I'll also add lets assume MU is no worse than 9-9 in BE play.

Would that be enough for MU in the Big Dance?

That's not unreasonable, is it?

[Eye]

Boy that'd be firmly on the bubble I would think. Would depend on how many good mid-majors win their conference tourneys, those types of things. With the softness of the bubble in most recent years, thinking would probably be enough to at least get 'em to Dayton for a PIG.

[brewcity77]

I've got a question:

So lets say Kenpom is vaguely correct (Seton Hall will have to prove 38 to me)..but in general, lets say its correct.

Then we have:
7 games against top 25
8 games against 26-50 (split the SMU/Pitt at 50)
4 games against 51-64

6 games in the 100s
3 games in the 200s
2 games in the 300s

if we lose only one >100 (10-1) and split the 1-64 (9-10)
and win 1 in the BET. that's 20wins (20-12).

I'll also add lets assume MU is no worse than 9-9 in BE play.

Would that be enough for MU in the Big Dance?

That's not unreasonable, is it?

20 wins and we're in. Honestly, I think 19 with a 9-9 league record gets us in.