MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: Cooby Snacks on October 23, 2016, 05:50:35 PM
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MU @ #47
Predicted 18-11 Overall, 9-9 in Big East
Rest of Big East:
2. Villanova
11. Xavier
19. Butler
29. Georgetown
32. Creighton
38. Seton Hall
63. Providence
108. St. John's
177. Who else?
Nonconference opponents in order:
8. Wisconsin
31. Michigan
49/51. SMU/Pitt
53. Georgia
64. Vanderbilt
137. Fresno St.
196. IUPUI
275. Howard
294. Houston Baptist
297. Western Carolina
300. SIU Edwardsville
326. St. Francis (PA)
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Would note SMU/Pitt not included in the 18-11 record; while we might be projected to win that game, the probabilities of the other games could mean a projection of either 19-11 or 18-12
Iirc, 40's for both Adj Ortg & adj Drtg
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I knew it. I knew it!!! Pomeroy thinks we're better than 49th!
More Butler love than most.
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Iirc, 40's for both Adj Ortg & adj Drtg
Would that be our highest Drtg under Wojo? I feel like our defense has always been ranked mid 100s.
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Would that be our highest Drtg under Wojo? I feel like our defense has always been ranked mid 100s.
Both would be the best marks if they were season ending numbers. Offense has been 116 & 155, defense has been 88 & 69.
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I dont see what's so special with Seton Hall.
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I dont see what's so special with Seton Hall.
Similar to us, they return virtually everyone but their best player. Theoretically, all that returning experience should be able to make up for Whiteheads departures. Their biggest question mark is point guard. Carrington is much better off the ball and may struggle running the point. They do bring in two transfer PGs but neither were very good at their last school and Seton Hall is a step up from Kansas state and wake forest.
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Similar to us, they return virtually everyone but their best player. Theoretically, all that returning experience should be able to make up for Whiteheads departures. Their biggest question mark is point guard. Carrington is much better off the ball and may struggle running the point. They do bring in two transfer PGs but neither were very good at their last school and Seton Hall is a step up from Kansas state and wake forest.
They also have Georgetown taking a huge jump from last year
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They also have Georgetown taking a huge jump from last year
Us too. I think we finished what? 95th in Ken Pom last season? To jump 40 spots after losing your best player is significant.
Georgetown is another, lost their best player but return everyone else. Like us, they also bring in some really good transfers in Rodney Pryor and Jonathan Mulmore. Like the Hall, their question mark is PG. Trae Campbell is not a high major PG and Jonathan Mulmore will be transitioning from the juco level.
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Looking at Big East Numbers, Butler, Georgetown, Creighton at 10-8, with us and Seton Hall at 9-9. Not a lot of space between #3-7.
Can we sweep St. John's, Providence, DePaul and beat Butler, Georgetown, Creighton and Seton Hall at home? That's 10 wins, puts us closer to the top and hopefully a tourney bid.
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I dont see what's so special with Seton Hall.
Defense.
#10th best in AdjD via KenPom last year.
Rodriguez & Sanogo get steals like crazy, Sanogo & Delgado block shots well, and Delgado gets it done on the defensive glass, too.
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275. Howard
294. Houston Baptist
297. Western Carolina
300. SIU Edwardsville
326. St. Francis (PA)
Why MU will not be in the post season yet again. Who is scheduling this mess? Such a joke.
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275. Howard
294. Houston Baptist
297. Western Carolina
300. SIU Edwardsville
326. St. Francis (PA)
Why MU will not be in the post season yet again. Who is scheduling this mess? Such a joke.
No. This schedule is actually really good.
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275. Howard
294. Houston Baptist
297. Western Carolina
300. SIU Edwardsville
326. St. Francis (PA)
Why MU will not be in the post season yet again. Who is scheduling this mess? Such a joke.
Just gonna ignore the rest of the non-conference schedule with five top 70 teams, huh?
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Hanner/ SI released their projections yesterday, which were interesting...
http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2016/10/24/big-east-preview-villanova-xavier-creighton
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Luke's a 'proficient rebounder?!' Since when?
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Luke's a 'proficient rebounder?!' Since when?
He is great on the offensive glass. Terrible on defense.
It's very interesting that they have JJJ taking a huge step back. I think Rowsey and Reinhardt are good, but they are not going to steal production from JJJ like that.
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He is great on the offensive glass. Terrible on defense.
It's very interesting that they have JJJ taking a huge step back. I think Rowsey and Reinhardt are good, but they are not going to steal production from JJJ like that.
Agreed. I'd be shocked if JJJ is the team's fifth leading scorer as a senior.
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Agreed. I'd be shocked if JJJ is the team's fifth leading scorer as a senior.
What was more surprising to me was his projected average of 7.9. I added up the points projected for each teams' 7 players listed
Villanova 76.9
Butler 76.7
Xavier 73.6
Creighton 71.3
Georgetown 66.9
Seton Hall 65.7
DePaul 64.6
MU 63.5
St. John's 63.2
Providence 62.4
MU's number might make sense, if Wojo is really going to play 10 players. 3 more players at 4 points a game gets us to 75.5.
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Agreed. I'd be shocked if JJJ is the team's fifth leading scorer as a senior.
I'd be equally as shocked if Duane finished outside the top 7 in scoring, and averaged under 5 PPG. Gimme a break.
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I'd be equally as shocked if Duane finished outside the top 7 in scoring, and averaged under 5 PPG. Gimme a break.
Yes. And no Markus?
I was frankly surprised, perhaps shocked by the SI player projections. Winn & Hanner are better than that, but especially Duane... nutso
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He mentioned MU on Twitter yesterday:
https://mobile.twitter.com/DanHanner/status/790596751422066688
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Agreed. I'd be shocked if JJJ is the team's fifth leading scorer as a senior.
And getting pretty much the same PT as Hauser??
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Looking at Big East Numbers, Butler, Georgetown, Creighton at 10-8, with us and Seton Hall at 9-9. Not a lot of space between #3-7.
1 whole game separating #3 (a good bet for the NCAA tournament) from #7 (on the outside looking in). That would make for a pretty exciting season, with the conference tournament seeds and at-large bids coming right down to the wire.
So, get hot, get lucky or otherwise find a way to win 1 game you weren't supposed to — and MU is in the mix for the postseason.
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1 whole game separating #3 (a good bet for the NCAA tournament) from #7 (on the outside looking in). That would make for a pretty exciting season, with the conference tournament seeds and at-large bids coming right down to the wire.
So, get hot, get lucky or otherwise find a way to win 1 game you weren't supposed to — and MU is in the mix for the postseason.
A 7th place and 9-9 BE isn't a lock to miss the tourney.
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A 7th place and 9-9 BE isn't a lock to miss the tourney.
Agreed. I think 9-9 in the Big East and 19 wins gets us in, certainly has us on the bubble at worst. That would likely include a minimum of 6 top-100 wins. The Big East could get as many as 7 teams in this year, and honestly I expect 6.
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I think a 9-9 team would need to pick up two Big East tournament wins to get a bid. Creighton was 9-9 last year and got an NIT bid.
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I think a 9-9 team would need to pick up two Big East tournament wins to get a bid. Creighton was 9-9 last year and got an NIT bid.
Creighton played a crap non-con schedule last year. Their best non-con win was over a bad Nebraska team. Their 9 wins only included three over tourney teams. Comparing their resume last year and what ours would be with 19 wins and a 9-9 conference record this year is completely flawed. The two aren't even remotely similar.
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A 7th place and 9-9 BE isn't a lock to miss the tourney.
Particularly in the scenario of 3-4-5 at 10-8 and 6-7 at 9-9. Heck, depending on the variables of who the wins are actually against, a 10-8 team might miss while a 9-9 gets in.
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The Big East could get as many as 7 teams in this year, and honestly I expect 6.
The Big East could get 7. But I don't think it's likely — depends on how we do collectively during the non-conference schedule. Five bids seems like a safe assumption, with a good possibility for 6 this year.
Making it back to the tournament would be a big step this year, even if we finish 7th. Last team in, who cares? You're in. At this point, that's enough. But I also want to finish in the top half of the Big East as soon as possible — another important step.
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I've got a question:
So lets say Kenpom is vaguely correct (Seton Hall will have to prove 38 to me)..but in general, lets say its correct.
Then we have:
7 games against top 25
8 games against 26-50 (split the SMU/Pitt at 50)
4 games against 51-64
6 games in the 100s
3 games in the 200s
2 games in the 300s
if we lose only one >100 (10-1) and split the 1-64 (9-10)
and win 1 in the BET. that's 20wins (20-12).
I'll also add lets assume MU is no worse than 9-9 in BE play.
Would that be enough for MU in the Big Dance?
That's not unreasonable, is it?
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Boy that'd be firmly on the bubble I would think. Would depend on how many good mid-majors win their conference tourneys, those types of things. With the softness of the bubble in most recent years, thinking would probably be enough to at least get 'em to Dayton for a PIG.
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I've got a question:
So lets say Kenpom is vaguely correct (Seton Hall will have to prove 38 to me)..but in general, lets say its correct.
Then we have:
7 games against top 25
8 games against 26-50 (split the SMU/Pitt at 50)
4 games against 51-64
6 games in the 100s
3 games in the 200s
2 games in the 300s
if we lose only one >100 (10-1) and split the 1-64 (9-10)
and win 1 in the BET. that's 20wins (20-12).
I'll also add lets assume MU is no worse than 9-9 in BE play.
Would that be enough for MU in the Big Dance?
That's not unreasonable, is it?
20 wins and we're in. Honestly, I think 19 with a 9-9 league record gets us in.