Belmont thoughts

[Benny B]

I found an NBA WE formula and ran the numbers

Before the Wilson 3, 76.1% chance of winning

After the 3, 59.2% chance of winning

Other Scenarios:

Makes the 3: 93.8% chance

Does Nothing, literally shot clock violation with 27 seconds left: 60.9%

Take 2 seconds to drive to the basket and makes a lay up: 87.4 %

Also ran some other scenarios in the last minute:
Before the HE charge 37.2 %, after 16.4%

Before the Carter TO: 12.7%, after 3.3%

Does the NBA formula account for the fact that one team only has 4 players on the floor?

[Lennys Tap]

12. We shot it 65 times. Luke shot it 6 times. With Henry in the game teams can't double Luke. He HAS to assert himself and be more involved offensively.
13. Henry was a beast but he's at best a mediocre 3 point shooter. He's virtually unstoppable down low but does the other team a favor when he plays on the perimeter or launches 3s.
14. JJJ looked solid. 5-7 on 2 pointers, 0-3 on 3s. He's a very bad 3 point shooter yet he continues to launch.
15. We couldn't play man to man last year but Wojo stole some games with a pretty decent zone. Another defensive effort like this one and it may be time to bring it back.

12. Got Luke a little more involved, still wish he would assert himself more.
13. I think he was 1-3 on 3s tonight - still like it better when he's closer to the basket.
14. JJJ 0-2 on 3s - one barely grazed the rim, one missed everything. If he wants to play his has to stop.
15. We were again horrid in our man to man. Thankfully Wojo broke out the zone tonight. Without it we lose.