Belmont thoughts

[tower912]

MU was up 1.   They were playing 5-on-4, as a Belmont player was on the ground cramping up.   Duane had shot poorly all night.    If he pushes the ball into the paint, attacks the rim, he could have made the lay-up/ gotten fouled/ dished off to a big for a dunk.     If he holds the ball and runs offense, against 4 defenders, he runs clock and probably gets an easy basket.   And his rebounders have time to prepare for a shot, instead of fouling because they were out of position.    The officials call time out so they can attend to the downed player.   Wojo takes advantage of the time out and sets his strategy for this possession and what comes after.     No, jacking the 3 was the worst decision he could have made.

[MU82]

I don't think that was that bad of a shot to take. 

I respectfully disagree, my fellow Connecticutian.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I respectfully disagree, my fellow Connecticutian.

I wish I saw the game rather than follow the end of the game play-by-play on my phone so I can have an opinion with my fellow Nutmeggers.

[Eldon]

I wish I saw the game rather than follow the end of the game play-by-play on my phone so I can have an opinion with my fellow Nutmeggers.

I'm not a fellow nutmegger, but I have eaten at Frank Pepe's so I reserve the right to chime in.

From what Homer and Mac said, it was a stupid shot.  I'll take their word for it.

[CTWarrior]

If he pushes the ball into the paint, attacks the rim, he could have made the lay-up/ gotten fouled/ dished off to a big for a dunk.     ...

He also could have dribbled off his foot, travelled, thrown away a bad pass or missed a lay-up or pull-up jumper.  When something doesn't work out, it is easy to say he should have done something else.  As I listened on the radio, I thought it was a bad idea, but watching it later on television, I completely understood why it made sense in the moment to Wilson.  He was wide open and had a great look at the basket with rebounders underneath. 

I understand just about no one will agree with me, especially because of how it played out, but I don't think it was an awful decision.

[Galway Eagle]

He also could have dribbled off his foot, travelled, thrown away a bad pass or missed a lay-up or pull-up jumper.  When something doesn't work out, it is easy to say he should have done something else.  As I listened on the radio, I thought it was a bad idea, but watching it later on television, I completely understood why it made sense in the moment to Wilson.  He was wide open and had a great look at the basket with rebounders underneath. 

I understand just about no one will agree with me, especially because of how it played out, but I don't think it was an awful decision.

I get your defense of him, but he should realize when he's having an off night. If he was red hot all game, then definitely take the shot but he wasn't he was shooting fairly poorly so a true leader would recognize that and figure out what's the smarter move. 

[Eldon]

I get your defense of him, but he should realize when he's having an off night. If he was red hot all game, then definitely take the shot but he wasn't he was shooting fairly poorly so a true leader would recognize that and figure out what's the smarter move.

Nah man, I completely disagree with this.

He was indeed having an off-night, but if you got an open shot take it.  A few minutes before his stupid shot, he nailed a three in the corner.  When they passed to him and he spotted up I thought "nooooo don't shoot, youve been off all night.....<swish>.....yes!  see, that's a leader right there"

The other shot was a bad one because he didn't plant his feet AND it was early in the shot clock.  That corner three probably made him too confident.

[MerrittsMustache]

He also could have dribbled off his foot, travelled, thrown away a bad pass or missed a lay-up or pull-up jumper.  When something doesn't work out, it is easy to say he should have done something else.  As I listened on the radio, I thought it was a bad idea, but watching it later on television, I completely understood why it made sense in the moment to Wilson.  He was wide open and had a great look at the basket with rebounders underneath. 

I understand just about no one will agree with me, especially because of how it played out, but I don't think it was an awful decision.

If he makes the shot, it's a huge. If he misses, it leaves the door wide open for the opposition. Either way, it's a poor decision. If there's a 5-on-4, you need to attack. Had Duane pulled the ball out to run the clock, the refs likely would have blown the possession dead to allow Belmont to tend to the injured player. Even if that was the case, having possession, the lead and the ability to run the clock down to under 30 seconds is more valuable than the 5-on-4. In addition, he didn't catch the ball cleanly and in rhythm. It was a high-risk, medium-reward shot attempt. He'll learn from it.

[Nukem2]

If he makes the shot, it's a huge. If he misses, it leaves the door wide open for the opposition. Either way, it's a poor decision. If there's a 5-on-4, you need to attack. Had Duane pulled the ball out to run the clock, the refs likely would have blown the possession dead to allow Belmont to tend to the injured player. Even if that was the case, having possession, the lead and the ability to run the clock down to under 30 seconds is more valuable than the 5-on-4. In addition, he didn't catch the ball cleanly and in rhythm. It was a high-risk, medium-reward shot attempt. He'll learn from it.

That's much what Wojo said on the post-game show with Homer.

[NotAnAlum]

Had Duane pulled the ball out to run the clock, the refs likely would have blown the possession dead to allow Belmont to tend to the injured player.

I'm pretty sure that is what he was thinking.  He knew the guy was down but the refs won't stop a play that is already in motion.  I'm pretty sure if we waits they blow the whistle and the advantage is lost, if he shoots and misses MU should have an advantage underneath and if we get the rebound they blow the whistle and we've got 30 more seconds.  If he'd taken that shot 5 on 5 I agree its dumb but had it worked in this situation everybody would have been praising Duane for a heady play realizing the guy was down and pushing the ball.
Regardless that is not what cost us the game.  Failure to rebound Duane's miss, the charge on Henry, and Traci's failure to understand what you can do in 8 seconds all hurt us more.

[GGGG]

We took a number of ill advised shots.  That was merely one of them.  Didn't JJJ take a 3 from the corner with the shot clock off and about 12 seconds on the game clock just before halftime?  To single one out as "game changing" is a little misguided IMO.

[MerrittsMustache]

I'm pretty sure that is what he was thinking.  He knew the guy was down but the refs won't stop a play that is already in motion.  I'm pretty sure if we waits they blow the whistle and the advantage is lost, if he shoots and misses MU should have an advantage underneath and if we get the rebound they blow the whistle and we've got 30 more seconds.  If he'd taken that shot 5 on 5 I agree its dumb but had it worked in this situation everybody would have been praising Duane for a heady play realizing the guy was down and pushing the ball.

Regardless that is not what cost us the game.  Failure to rebound Duane's miss, the charge on Henry, and Traci's failure to understand what you can do in 8 seconds all hurt us more.

It was a bad shot regardless. If he wanted to take advantage of the 5-on-4 then he should have attacked the basket.

To oversimplify, Marquette's inability to play help defense cost them the game.

[brewcity77]

We took a number of ill advised shots.  That was merely one of them.  Didn't JJJ take a 3 from the corner with the shot clock off and about 12 seconds on the game clock just before halftime?  To single one out as "game changing" is a little misguided IMO.

Thanks for reminding me about that. Ugh, that was a groan-worthy shot. It was 8 seconds left and they didn't score after, but they got a look at a three. Young team, lots of miscues. Honestly, it's just unfortunate we opened the season with a team like Belmont. We schedule 7 games against the absolute drek of cupcakes yet somehow manage to start the season with what is probably our toughest non-conference home game of the season (Iowa the only other consideration). For all the supposed effort that went into scheduling this season, it couldn't have set up much worse.

And I know this is a LC game, but this is not the type of team you want to start the season with when your schedule screams that you are terrified about having an inexperienced team.

[Nukem2]

And I know this is a LC game, but this is not the type of team you want to start the season with when your schedule screams that you are terrified about having an inexperienced team.

What ya gonna do.  The game was pre-set for MU as you note.  Luck of the draw.  Could have been Kennesaw State or So. Alabama.....  In any event, Wojo probably learned a lot more about his team from playing Belmont than he will tonight playing yewie puey. 

[brewcity77]

What ya gonna do.  The game was pre-set for MU as you note.  Luck of the draw.  Could have been Kennesaw State or So. Alabama.....  In any event, Wojo probably learned a lot more about his team from playing Belmont than he will tonight playing yewie puey.

Give the LC different dates. Play those games after the games in Brooklyn. That happens all the time. I don't know...one more schedule gripe I have in what felt like a trainwreck of non-conference scheduling. I'm still very glad we got Belmont, but had we played them after we got back from NYC, I think we may have seen a much different result. Why go to all the trouble of scheduling patsies to "teach a team how to win" or whatever the excuse was if you aren't going to frontload those teams on the schedule?

[Benny B]

Sorry to be tardy to the party, but here are my thoughts (some of which, I'm sure, I'm duplicating others')

1. Bunk crowd.  Seriously... what else was going on at 8:00 pm on a Friday night that we couldn't draw more butts to a game which was widely foretold that it would be more competitive (and entertaining) than half the conference games this year?  And I'm not talking about the students here.

2. Henry's offense was solid, and he was dogging it on defense.  He's ready for the NBA (snark to the NBA, not Henry).  There were several situations where he showed no hustle - if any intent - on loose balls.  He seemed focused on two things: shoot and rebound.  Though, this is what happens to a lot of freshmen in their first game... sometimes the lights get the better of you the first night, so you concentrate on doing what you know and not looking stupid.  This should be temporary and just a matter of time.  I hope it's temporary and just a matter of time.

3. Luke's defense was equally horrid.  In his defense, however, the problem was that after Chucky Chuckerson made those first four 3's, Belmont stretched their offense, and Luke had to come out to the perimeter to guard his man.  But unlike Henry, it didn't appear to be a lack of effort... he was completely out of his element, and frankly, looked lost.  These are the times I wish the triangle-and-two was universally taught.

4. Granted, nobody broke any ankles, but our guys were getting beat off the dribble all night.  After Belmont's thirty-eleventh bunny in the first half, I began to tell myself it was merely to get the crowd hyped up for Slash's halftime performance.

5. Sandy is going to be good.  Perhaps not "Jimmy Butler" good, but I can definitely see a future Scoop debate on whether he deserves the middle initial 'F'.

6. Why is our starting PG good enough to be in down 3 with seconds remaining but not good enough to be in down 1 with a few more seconds remaining?

7. Du Wil's 5-on-4 was - by conventional wisdom - the incorrect move if you're only trying to shave time off the clock.  I'll leave it to the bama's and company to do the analysis, but in that situation, statistically, it should be the correct move... being up by single point under a minute to go with Belmont assured at least one more possession, and especially given the rebounding advantage - it is absolutely the right time to take a wide-open three.  If you make it, you're up 4; if you miss, you have a good chance at an offensive rebound, in which case, you can reset, run the clock to under 15 seconds and take your shot.  If you don't get the rebound, you still get the last possession to win/tie (assuming you defend the 3).

Philosophically, you have to ask yourself, "am I playing to win, or am I playing not to lose?"

8. IUPUI is all that matters right now.

[Nukem2]

Give the LC different dates. Play those games after the games in Brooklyn. That happens all the time. I don't know...one more schedule gripe I have in what felt like a trainwreck of non-conference scheduling. I'm still very glad we got Belmont, but had we played them after we got back from NYC, I think we may have seen a much different result. Why go to all the trouble of scheduling patsies to "teach a team how to win" or whatever the excuse was if you aren't going to frontload those teams on the schedule?

Those games are played before the main event.  And, it's not like MU has a lot of dates to work with and there is that Iowa game on Thursday.  Not so sure that MU had much flexibility as to the LC games.

[MUfan12]

1. Bunk crowd.  Seriously... what else was going on at 8:00 pm on a Friday night that we couldn't draw more butts to a game which was widely foretold that it would be more competitive (and entertaining) than half the conference games this year?  And I'm not talking about the students here.

Yeah I was disappointed by the size of the crowd as well. But, those who did show up were pretty into it. Students upstairs were at their drunken best.

[MerrittsMustache]

Yeah I was disappointed by the size of the crowd as well. But, those who did show up were pretty into it. Students upstairs were at their drunken best.

I actually thought the crowd was very respectable given that MU is coming off an ugly year and it was an early season game against a no-name school. It was roughly the same attendance as last season's opener.

[Benny B]

I actually thought the crowd was very respectable given that MU is coming off an ugly year and it was an early season game against a no-name school. It was roughly the same attendance as last season's opener.

Granted it's early, but this no-name school was a big-time opponent... the best we've seen in a season opener since 1997.

[GGGG]

The casual fan doesn't know the difference between Belmont and Tennessee-Martin.  Or at least doesn't care about the difference.

[MerrittsMustache]

The casual fan doesn't know the difference between Belmont and Tennessee-Martin.  Or at least doesn't care about the difference.

Exactly.

If the opener was against IUPUI, attendance would have been about the same. If the opener was against Iowa, there would have been more bodies in the seats. If it was against Duke, the place would have been full.

[brewcity77]

Those games are played before the main event.  And, it's not like MU has a lot of dates to work with and there is that Iowa game on Thursday.  Not so sure that MU had much flexibility as to the LC games.

As I said, those games could have been played after Brooklyn. The last time the Legends Classic did it was just 2 years ago in 2013; Stanford played South Dakota State at home on December 1 as part of the Legends Classic, after returning from NYC.

[MUDPT]

I found an NBA WE formula and ran the numbers

Before the Wilson 3, 76.1% chance of winning

After the 3, 59.2% chance of winning

Other Scenarios:

Makes the 3: 93.8% chance

Does Nothing, literally shot clock violation with 27 seconds left: 60.9%

Take 2 seconds to drive to the basket and makes a lay up: 87.4 %

Also ran some other scenarios in the last minute:
Before the HE charge 37.2 %, after 16.4%

Before the Carter TO: 12.7%, after 3.3%

[willie warrior]

I found an NBA WE formula and ran the numbers

Before the Wilson 3, 76.1% chance of winning

After the 3, 59.2% chance of winning

Other Scenarios:

Makes the 3: 93.8% chance

Does Nothing, literally shot clock violation with 27 seconds left: 60.9%

Take 2 seconds to drive to the basket and makes a lay up: 87.4 %

Also ran some other scenarios in the last minute:
Before the HE charge 37.2 %, after 16.4%

Before the Carter TO: 12.7%, after 3.3%

So the HE charge and the Carter TO were more costly, because after them our chances of winning were 16.4% and 3.3%