The way too early 2016 NCAA Bracket

[Benny B]

Barring material injuries, Marquette -8 vs. UW this year.  Book it.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

it's not very hard.  the 2013-2014 team that went to the final four had jackson and brust as the only 2 upper classmen who had been contributors on the 2012-2013 team.  the only players to average 15+ mpg on the 13-14 team were brust, gasser, jackson, dekker, kaminsky, hayes, and koenig.  brust and jackson were upper classmen who averaged 34 and 27 mpg, respectively, the year before.  kaminsky averaged 10 mpg, gasser was out with injury and didn't play, dekker was a sophomore (underclassman) in 13-14, and hayes and koenig were both freshman in 13-14.  they finished in the top 4 of the b1g and went to the final four.

this season they will have hayes and koenig as their 2 upper classmen who were contributors on the past year's team, just like the 13-14 team had jackson and brust, and there is no doubt whatsoever that the combination of hayes and koenig is far better than jackson and brust were (brust was underrated, but jackson was bad and it's no surprise that the badgers really rounded into form once koenig took the reigns when jackson got hurt last season).

i'm sure there are plenty more examples, but i didn't waste my time when really it took the first year prior to last season (when everyone expected them to be very good for the first time under bo).

now, find me a year where bo's team has been bad in the regular season and then i would be on your side.  but that hasn't happened.

Lets compare 13-14 to 15-16

13-14
Bohananon RS Senior
Brust Senior
Dukan RS Junior
Gasser RS Junior
Anderson RS Junior
Jackson Junior
Kaminsky Junior
Dekker Sophomore
Showalter Sophomore
Hayes Freshman
HIll Freshman
Koenig Freshman
Brown Freshman
Dearring Freshman

Total years of experience: 22

15-16
Showalter RS Junior
Koenig Junior
Hayes Junior
Brown Junior
Hill RS Sophomore
Dearring RS Sophomore
Happ RS Freshman
Pritzl Freshman
Iverson Freshman
Illikainen Freshman
Thomas IV Freshman

Total years of experience: 14

Bos system requires underclassmen. He doesn't have them this year. They will still make the tournament but they won't finish in the top of the B1G. Look at Maryland, Michigan state, Indiana, abd Purdue. Which of those four do you really think will be worse than Wisconsin this year? Then look at Iowa, Ohio state, and Michigan. All of them will be about as good if not better. Conference strength matters

[withoutbias]

If you find me another year where Bo had 0 seniors, 4 juniors, 0 sophomores who have ever averaged more than 3 minutes a game, and had to rely on at least five freshmen playing significant minutes (where only one of them was ranked in the top 100...and it was in the bottom quarter), then I would say it was the same thing.

Bo's system needs upperclassmen with experience. He doesn't have that this year. They will struggle. Bo's streak of top 4 B1G finishes ends this year. However, next year, they will be pretty damn good again (assuming no surprising departures).

Lets compare 13-14 to 15-16

13-14
Bohananon RS Senior
Brust Senior
Dukan RS Junior
Gasser RS Junior
Anderson RS Junior
Jackson Junior
Kaminsky Junior
Dekker Sophomore
Showalter Sophomore
Hayes Freshman
HIll Freshman
Koenig Freshman
Brown Freshman
Dearring Freshman

Total years of experience: 22

15-16
Showalter RS Junior
Koenig Junior
Hayes Junior
Brown Junior
Hill RS Sophomore
Dearring RS Sophomore
Happ RS Freshman
Pritzl Freshman
Iverson Freshman
Illikainen Freshman
Thomas IV Freshman

Total years of experience: 14

Not a good comparison on your part.

i bolded the players that matched your experienced upperclassmen required to make bo's system work.  seems like an identical comparison on my part.

so first you were claiming he needs experienced upper classmen.  when i proved that wrong now the argument changes to total years of experience in college basketball, regardless of how many minutes they played, what their role on the team is, etc.  got it.

hard to be wrong when you change the argument once your first argument is wrong.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

i bolded the players that matched your experienced upperclassmen required to make bo's system work.  seems like an identical comparison on my part.

so first you were claiming he needs experienced upper classmen.  when i proved that wrong now the argument changes to total years of experience in college basketball.  got it.

hard to be wrong when you change the argument once your first argument is wrong.

I didn't change my argument at all. Experience means years in college basketball. Why do you think bo uses redshirts more than any other high major coach? It's to teach his players his system and make them better before relying on them for major minutes. Do you think they are just standing around during redshirt years?

Hayes/Koenig is better than Brust/Jackson, but you are ignoring the rest of the team. Deeker/Gasser/kaminsky/dukan is better than showalter/brown/dearring/hill.

[withoutbias]

I didn't change my argument at all. Experience means years in college basketball. Why do you think bo uses redshirts more than any other high major coach? It's to teach his players his system and make them better before relying on them for major minutes. Do you think they are just standing around during redshirt years?

Hayes/Koenig is better than Brust/Jackson, but you are ignoring the rest of the team. Deeker/Gasser/kaminsky/dukan is better than showalter/brown/dearring/hill.

then what's the point of adding "experienced" in front of upperclassmen.  if a player gains experience just by the number of years he is on a roster in college basketball, regardless of how much he plays, isn't any upperclassman going to be "experienced" in your definition?  seems redundant.  or else you were differentiating between players who were upperclassmen that had contributed and players that were upperclassmen that had yet to contribute significantly to a team's success.

we don't know if that second group of players is going to be better or worse, not to mention dekker was a sophomore so we can remove him based on your "experienced" definition (he only had 1 year of college basketball experience, so he couldn't be an experience player i guess).  going into 13-14 i guarantee you we were saying "gasser, kaminsky, and dukan have no experience, they won't be any good."

if you guys want to continue to doubt and question what bo can do that's fine.  argue with the results.  it's never smart to do, but I'm not going to stop you.  until he has a down year, i will continue to not overlook them and pretend they'll be a bubble team.  they never are.  maybe others will learn that.

[Sylvester78]

Agree with Bias.  What are Benny and others crowing about.   Until they are bad I won't believe they are going to be bad.  We have many many more unproven players. Safe to say Hayes/Koenig are better than Luke and Duane.   They have two guys that were key cogs and a few others that contributed to 2 FF runs.   Koenig and Hayes are both very good college players who will only get better like all their other guys in the past.

[brewcity77]

It's not about Hayes and Koenig, it's that they have no one after those two.

[withoutbias]

It's not about Hayes and Koenig, it's that they have no one after those two.

just like they had "no one after" jackson/brust in 2013-2014...until they did. and then they went to the final four.

same song and dance every year.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

then what's the point of adding "experienced" in front of upperclassmen.  if a player gains experience just by the number of years he is on a roster in college basketball, regardless of how much he plays, isn't any upperclassman going to be "experienced" in your definition?  seems redundant.  or else you were differentiating between players who were upperclassmen that had contributed and players that were upperclassmen that had yet to contribute significantly to a team's success.

we don't know if that second group of players is going to be better or worse, not to mention dekker was a sophomore so we can remove him based on your "experienced" definition (he only had 1 year of college basketball experience, so he couldn't be an experience player i guess). 

I never said that only upperclassmen can contribute. I said his system requires upperclassmen to work. I also said that it can't rely on freshmen contributing at a high level. Bo will have limited upperclassmen this year. He will also rely on at least three freshmen making huge contributions. That is not a winning formula for the Badgers, never has been. Bo has always had at least one senior and several reliable redshirt juniors/true juniors to rely on. As Brew mentioned before, only three badger freshmen have ever played 40% or more of a reliable minutes in the past 8 years. Bo will need three freshmen to do that next year alone. This is a team unlike any Bo has ever had before.

going into 13-14 i guarantee you we were saying "gasser, kaminsky, and dukan have no experience, they won't be any good."

I'll admit I wasn't penciling them into the Final Four, but I didn't say they wouldn't be good. I looked back at my notes, I penciled them in for a 5 seed.

You keep wanting to compare 13-14 to next year. It truly is a bad comparison. I already mentioned the 22 years of experience vs. 14 years of experience. Brew mentioned how much better the efficiency of Wisconsin's returning bench was versus this year. You also act like the cupboard was bare when 12-13 was over. They only lost 42% of their offense that year. Easily replaceable. They lost 66% of their offense this year. The 12-13 team also lost their top rebounder and shot blocker. This year, they are losing their top scorer, rebounder, assister, shot blocker, and three point shooter.

If you don't buy any of those arguments, how about comparing the career minutes of the returning players?

Career Minutes Going into 2013-2014
Josh Gasser: 2,184
Ben Brust: 2,013
Traevon Jackson: 1,065
Sam Dekker: 780
Frank Kaminsky: 600
George Marshall: 552
Zak Showalter: 147
Zach Bohannon: 80
Evan Anderson: 73
Duje Dukan: 56
Nigel Hayes: 0
Bronson Koenig: 0
Vitto Brown: 0
TOTAL: 7,550

Career Minutes Going into 2015-2016
Nigel Hayes: 1,981
Bronson Koenig: 1,724
Zak Showalter: 440
Vitto Brown: 258
Riley Dearring: 39
Jordan Hill: 0
Ethan Happ: 0
Brevin Pritzl: 0
Khalil Iverson: 0
Alex Illikainen: 0
Andy Van Vliet: 0
Charlie Thomas IV: 0
TOTAL: 4,442

See the difference yet? There is no comparing the two seasons. This season will be much more difficult for Bo than the 2013-2014 campaign.

if you guys want to continue to doubt and question what bo can do that's fine.  argue with the results.  it's never smart to do, but I'm not going to stop you.  until he has a down year, i will continue to not overlook them and pretend they'll be a bubble team.  they never are.  maybe others will learn that.

I get your argument. Bo has been consistent for years. Why wouldn't he be now? It's simple, because every shred of data says that he has never faced a rebuild like this before and doesn't have the experience or the talent to do it at a level where they earn a high seed or finish in the top 4 of the B1G. Despite this, I still think they make the tourney as a bubble team. Which you may have forgotten, but Bo has been on the bubble before. This wouldn't even be his worst team.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

just like they had "no one after" jackson/brust in 2013-2014...until they did. and then they went to the final four.

same song and dance every year.

....But they did have people after Jackson/Brust. They had Gasser (who had more career minutes than either of them), they had Sam Dekker (former 5 star recruit who started the season before), and they had Kaminsky (highly efficient bench big man who was third off the bench during the 12-13 season).

So even if Hayes/Koenig is better than Brust/Jackson, Gasser/Dekker/Kaminsky is helluva lot better than Showalter/Brown/Dearring.

You seem to have this impression that people thought the 13-14 Badgers were going to suck. I don't think many predicted the final four, but I really don't remember anyone saying they were going to be bad.

[withoutbias]

fair enough. i guess we'll agree to disagree.

heard from a little birdie last night that this discussion may be irrelevant and we may never find out whether bo continues his b1g top 4 run or not.

[brewcity77]

just like they had "no one after" jackson/brust in 2013-2014...until they did. and then they went to the final four.

same song and dance every year.

Did you read my post above? They returned two very high efficiency upperclassmen that year in Gasser & Kaminsky as well as a 5-star sophomore in Dekker.

Everyone may have been shocked by Frank, but we shouldn't have been. His offensive efficiency was fantastic and he was an upperclassman. That's Bo's formula for success. He doesn't have that this year. If Vitto Brown becomes the next Frank, it would be shocking because while Frank was excellent in limited minutes, Brown was terrible.

[Benny B]

fair enough. i guess we'll agree to disagree.

heard from a little birdie last night that this discussion may be irrelevant and we may never find out whether bo continues his b1g top 4 run or not.

Bo will start the season, and Gard will have the reigns by year's end... but that doesn't mean they're going to pull a Bobby-->Pat Knight move.

[withoutbias]

Bo will start the season, and Gard will have the reigns by year's end... but that doesn't mean they're going to pull a Bobby-->Pat Knight move.

i won't believe it until i actually officially see it, but hearing bo could be taking care of gard by waiting to announce his retirement until it's too late for the badgers to hire anyone else.  but it's probably too late right now, so not sure on that.

[Warrior Code]

fair enough. i guess we'll agree to disagree.

heard from a little birdie last night that this discussion may be irrelevant and we may never find out whether bo continues his b1g top 4 run or not.

Wisconsin is leaving the Big Ten?

[Benny B]

i won't believe it until i actually officially see it, but hearing bo could be taking care of gard by waiting to announce his retirement until it's too late for the badgers to hire anyone else.  but it's probably too late right now, so not sure on that.

Gard is already the heir apparent.  Bo doesn't need to do anything with Barry already on board... it's simply a matter of when they announce the transition.

[withoutbias]

Gard is already the heir apparent.  Bo doesn't need to do anything with Barry already on board... it's simply a matter of when they announce the transition.

not what i've heard. heard bo and barry clash heads and that when bo moved on there are 2 candidates they would try to throw big money at.

[Dawson Rental]

not what i've heard. heard bo and barry clash heads and that when bo moved on there are 2 candidates they would try to throw big money at.

Is Tony Bennett one?

[BM1090]

Is Tony Bennett one?

Not sure, but Bennett definitely will not be coaching UW

[77ncaachamps]

NO VIRGINIA TECH?!?