More Musings: A Possible Model for Next Season

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I found myself thinking about next season, specifically how terrible we are going to be on paper. Just think about it. We finished last season at 17-15, 90 in RPI, 76 in KenPom. We missed the NIT then proceeded to graduate/lose our coach, four starters, and our top bench player. Amongst the players lost we lose our top scorer (Davante), top rebounder (Jamil), top shot blocker (Otule, top sniper (Jake), and most clutch player (Mayo). That's 72% of our scoring. The one starter returning is arguably the worst of the bunch from last season. And the talent we have coming in is good, but probably not enough to replace what was lost. A graduate transfer, a redshirt freshman, a midseason transfer and a four star guard is not going to make up the production of 4 seniors and a talented junior. There was talent on the bench last season, but if you go by Bama's value add numbers, they will tell you that are not likely to be good enough to even give us a winning season. Things look pretty bleak.

This made me think of another perennial powerhouse that had faced a bleak looking situation recently. It is school that I hate for more reason than one but I have to give them respect for bouncing back from a terrible season. That team is the Texas Longhorns.

2012-2013 was a brutal season for the Longhorns. After racking up one of the longest NCAA tournament streaks in history, they fell flat. A preseason top 25 team, they ended with a losing record, going 16-18 (7-11), including a loss to D2 Chaminade and a first round CBI exit at in state rival Houston. Their final RPI was 115 and KenPom was a 98. A disaster of a season, people were even speculating that Barnes could be fired Buzz to Texas. The offseason brought no relief. One starter declared for the draft (went undrafted), two starters and a promising bench player decided to transfer, and another player decided to pursue a professional career overseas. The lost about 60% of their offense to transfers as well as their lead scorer, assistman, thief, and three point shooter. The freshman class they brought in was nothing spectacular, at least not for Texas. One four star and three three stars. None of them were ranked in the top 100. By all projections, they were going to be worse in 2013-2014 than they had been in 2012-2013.

But that didn't happen. Despite all the departures and hardships, the Longhorns had a fantastic season. Former bench players Cameron Ridley and Demarcus Holland became starters and exceeded all projections. Johnathan Holmes turned from a solid player into a star. And Isiah Taylor, the lowest ranked freshmen in the class, ended being a solid starter. They finished with a 24-11 (11-7) record in a very tough Big 12. They earned a 7 seed and made it to the round of 32 before being bounced by Michigan.

On paper, the Longhorns sucked, they were awful. But after moving down here and getting to interact with people who are close to the program, I realized that it wasn't a surprise to many Longhorn fans. Their perception was that during the 2012-2013 season, Barnes lost the team (sound familiar?). Barnes got stuck playing the most talented players instead of the best teammates (kind of opposite of what we had). Texas had three great superstars in Kabongo, McClellan, and Lewis but a terrible team. I've also heard that Kabongo was a cancer to the team and needed to cut off (Mayo?). Barnes got a fresh start with a new group and was able to turn his team back into a winner. Not only that, but with no graduating seniors or transfers on the team and all-world recruit Myles Turner arriving, Texas is projected to be even better in 2014-2015. They are a team with a legitimate shot at a deep postseason run (But not a conference championship because only the Jayhawks are allowed to win the B12).

It's obviously not a perfect comparison, but I see a lot of similarities between the Longhorns 2012-2013 season and the Warriors 2013-2014 season. On paper, we are awful, and we have to accept the possibility of an awful season. We have to accept that there will be growing pains. We also have to accept that the media and other fans are going to peg us to finish 9th in the BEast. But the breath of fresh air that has been the start of the Wojo regime has got me optimistic. Maybe he can turn Buzz' duece of last season into a contender. Then you add in what looks to be shaping up to be a top 5 recruiting class in 2015...

Just my two cents. In Wojo we trust!

[Nukem2]

Hope you are correct.  The big difference is that TX had several bigs who can control the paint.  MU will be far more of a perimeter team.  People point out that Mizzou team from 3 years ago; but, that team (even without Bowers) still had two 6'9" seniors in Radcliffe and Moore who anchored the middle while averaging almost 17ppg and 11rpg with 70+ blocked shots.  Going to be tough for MU, especially for most of the NC schedule.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I love the optimism!

[Galway Eagle]

Ryan I love the optimism but come on Texas returned a coach with a proven track record who's had a ton of NCAA success before while we lost our coach, who kinda went a bit crazy sure, but still losing a coach on top of all the players is quite a lot to overcome. 

[moomoo]

The Theory of Competition says "just because they're the strong doesn't mean they can't get their a$$e$ kicked."

That's right. See, what every long-shot, come-from-behind underdog will tell you is this: The other guy may in fact be the favorite; the odds may be stacked against you. Fair enough ... But what the odds don't know is this isn't a math test. This is a completely different kind of test. One where passion has a funny way of trumping logic. So before you step up to the starting line, before the whistle blows and the clock starts ticking, just remember: out here, the results don't always add up. No matter what the stats may say and the experts may think and the commentators may have predicted, when the race is on, all bets are off. Don't be surprised if someone decides to flip the script and take a pass on yelling "uncle". And then suddenly, as the old saying goes, "We got ourselves a game."

Sorry for the cliches, my golden warrior brethren. But I think you get the point.

[brandx]

I found myself thinking about next season, specifically how terrible we are going to be on paper. Just think about it. We finished last season at 17-15, 90 in RPI, 76 in KenPom. We missed the NIT then proceeded to graduate/lose our coach, four starters, and our top bench player. Amongst the players lost we lose our top scorer (Davante), top rebounder (Jamil), top shot blocker (Otule, top sniper (Jake), and most clutch player (Mayo). That's 72% of our scoring. The one starter returning is arguably the worst of the bunch from last season. And the talent we have coming in is good, but probably not enough to replace what was lost. A graduate transfer, a redshirt freshman, a midseason transfer and a four star guard is not going to make up the production of 4 seniors and a talented junior. There was talent on the bench last season, but if you go by Bama's value add numbers, they will tell you that are not likely to be good enough to even give us a winning season. Things look pretty bleak.

I think you answered a lot of your own questions.

"Amongst the players lost we lose our top scorer (Davante), top rebounder (Jamil), top shot blocker (Otule, top sniper (Jake), and most clutch player (Mayo). That's 72% of our scoring."

Nothing very impressive there. I would wager that our top scorer, rebounder, sniper, and clutch player will match or exceed those from last year. Of the people you listed, I think we miss Otule the most - not for shot blocking per se, but just the size and presence that he gave to the team in the paint. And Buzz did not fully utilize the talent on the bench.

I think we will enjoy this team especially once Fischer is eligible. They will have us wailing and gnashing teeth over a few losses to bad teams, but will also beat some good teams.

I won't predict NCAAs but wouldn't be surprised. It's the perfect year for a team like this in the BE where we can play with anybody except maybe 'Nova.

[barfolomew]

Damn. I clicked on this thread because I thought Wojo was recruiting Kate Upton.

Oh well, I do like the sentiment.
Yes, we lose 72% of our scoring, but also 65% of our shot attempts. If some guys step up, it's not insurmountable to make up that differential.

[real chili 83]

Nice write up TAMU.

[MU82]

I think you answered a lot of your own questions.

"Amongst the players lost we lose our top scorer (Davante), top rebounder (Jamil), top shot blocker (Otule, top sniper (Jake), and most clutch player (Mayo). That's 72% of our scoring."

Nothing very impressive there. I would wager that our top scorer, rebounder, sniper, and clutch player will match or exceed those from last year. Of the people you listed, I think we miss Otule the most - not for shot blocking per se, but just the size and presence that he gave to the team in the paint. And Buzz did not fully utilize the talent on the bench.

I think we will enjoy this team especially once Fischer is eligible. They will have us wailing and gnashing teeth over a few losses to bad teams, but will also beat some good teams.

I won't predict NCAAs but wouldn't be surprised. It's the perfect year for a team like this in the BE where we can play with anybody except maybe 'Nova.

I was thinking much the same thing as I read TAMU's post. I didn't even remember that Jamil was our leading rebounder, and the fact that Jake was our top sniper says a lot.

In other words, there might be a lot of addition by subtraction this season, starting with the head coach, as I trust the new one won't be half-insane.

I'm actually quite psyched for this season. I'm thinking that, at the very least, they will play hard, entertain me and give me hope for outstanding seasons in 2015-16 and beyond.

[River rat]

I have been saying it all along, we will be better than people think.  May take some lumps early, but we have talent. Its not like conference will be the old BE, there are wins to be had.

[Skatastrophy]

I have been saying it all along, we will be better than people think.  May take some lumps early, but we have talent. Its not like conference will be the old BE, there are wins to be had.

I don't think we'll be good, but I believe we'll have flashes of greatness this season.

[PBRme]

I think you answered a lot of your own questions.

"Amongst the players lost we lose our top scorer (Davante), top rebounder (Jamil), top shot blocker (Otule, top sniper (Jake), and most clutch player (Mayo). That's 72% of our scoring."

Nothing very impressive there. I would wager that our top scorer, rebounder, sniper, and clutch player will match or exceed those from last year. Of the people you listed, I think we miss Otule the most - not for shot blocking per se, but just the size and presence that he gave to the team in the paint. And Buzz did not fully utilize the talent on the bench.

I think we will enjoy this team especially once Fischer is eligible. They will have us wailing and gnashing teeth over a few losses to bad teams, but will also beat some good teams.

I won't predict NCAAs but wouldn't be surprised. It's the perfect year for a team like this in the BE where we can play with anybody except maybe 'Nova.

If our "top sniper" isn't better we may not win a game

[Dawson Rental]

.....Former bench players Cameron Ridley and Demarcus Holland became starters and exceeded all projections.

Cameron Ridley exceeded all projections?  Are we talking about this Cameron Ridley?

McDonald's All-American ... ranked as the No. 8 prospect nationally in the ESPN100 following his senior season ... posted 12 points, nine rebounds and two blocks to lead the West squad to a victory at the 2012 McDonald's All-America Game in Chicago.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Cameron Ridley exceeded all projections?  Are we talking about this Cameron Ridley?

McDonald's All-American ... ranked as the No. 8 prospect nationally in the ESPN100 following his senior season ... posted 12 points, nine rebounds and two blocks to lead the West squad to a victory at the 2012 McDonald's All-America Game in Chicago.

Yes. But he had a vander blue like freshman year where he had trouble scoring and couldn't get off the bench. Longhorn fans were not optimistic about him starting the following year.

[Johnny B]

Well written Ryan.

[Nukem2]

Yes. But he had a vander blue like freshman year where he had trouble scoring and couldn't get off the bench. Longhorn fans were not optimistic about him starting the following year.

More to the point, Ridley was overweight and out of shape as a frosh.

[tower912]

It is possible, TAMU.   The primary difference is that Barnes has a track record and right now we still have no idea if Wojo can coach a game.    We know he can say the right things.   We know he can, at least in the short term, improve morale in the MU athletic offices.   We know he can retain some of Buzz's recruits and can take in some transfers, one with a track record, one with a record in track.   We THINK he will be able to land some top recruits  (Thursday afternoon, September 4)   But we don't know if he can game coach.   We don't know if he can develop talent.   We don't know if he can sign the top recruits.   And because we know what we don't know, any prediction right now is either a hopeful guess, or a less-than-hopeful guess. 

[WellsstreetWanderer]

I'm just excited to see all the new faces play and how our returnees have improved. No expectations  right now

[jsglow]

For me, all the guys we lost off last year's team are replaceable.  I believe we'll be a competitive team this year hurt mostly by lack of size and typical underclassmen growing pains.

[DoggyDaddy]

Worse than what we really want, better than what really expect.