Seth Davis

[JTBMU7]

here is his take on MU's chances to make the dance, not too surprising. but his point about 3-point shooting is interesting...

http://m.si.com/3786427/up-in-smoke/

“Certainly if anyone can alchemize this rusty old bucket, it’s the wondrous Brent Williams. But I believe this task is beyond even his considerable powers. It’s not complicated what’s happening here: Marquette can’t shoot. According to kenpom.com the Eagles are ranked 101st in offensive efficiency, 254th in free throw percentage and 287th in 3-point percentage. They get just 19.6 percent of their points from behind the three-point line, which ranks 320th nationally. I’ve always believed that if a team isn’t utilizing the three-point line at a high rate, they may as well be playing 4 on 5. There are too many teams taking advantage of that part of the game to think you can compete consistently without it.

Yes, Marquette did not expect to lose Vander Blue to the pros, and the season-ending injury to freshman point guard Duane Wilson was a tough blow. This program has won big in recent years much more because of its culture than its talent, so it is more vulnerable to personnel losses. I’ll be interested to see if Buzz can resurrect this, but as of now, it looks like the team that was picked to win the Big East conference in the preseason will not even make the NCAA tournament.”

[BrewCity83]

Seth Davis must read MUScoop.  He says it's like we're playing 4 on 5.

[keefe]

Seth Davis must read MUScoop. 

And why wouldn't he? The man is a professional journalist and wants to present the facts.

[ceh]

If you watch closely, sometimes we play 3 on 5.

[CTWarrior]

Seth Davis must read MUScoop.  He says it's like we're playing 4 on 5.

Well, if my math is correct,  isn't it down to 3 on 5 because we lose one because our PG is Derrick Wilson (Kevin O'Neill) and one because we can't shoot the 3 (Seth Davis)?  Buzz is 10-7 coaching 3 on 5.  If that's not the COY, I don't know who is!

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

I think the next 3 games tell the story of the season.

Win 2 out of 3, and I think MU has a good chance to get in because the last 10 games on the schedule are favorable. They could get to 12-6 in the conference and win a game or 2 in the BET.

Go 0-3 or 1-3, and they don't have any room for error. They'll have to win every pick 'em style match-up and probably pull a couple of upsets.

If somehow they win the next 2, I think they might be sitting pretty good. They could could win out at home and they only have 1 certain loss on the road (Nova).

[LloydMooresLegs]

I think the next 3 games tell the story of the season.

Win 2 out of 3, and I think MU has a good chance to get in because the last 10 games on the schedule are favorable. They could get to 12-6 in the conference and win a game or 2 in the BET.

Go 0-3 or 1-3, and they don't have any room for error. They'll have to win every pick 'em style match-up and probably pull a couple of upsets.

If somehow they win the next 2, I think they might be sitting pretty good. They could could win out at home and they only have 1 certain loss on the road (Nova).

I don't think that will happen, but if it does, turn out the lights, Howard.

[Windyplayer]

According to kenpom.com the Eagles are ranked 101st in offensive efficiency, 254th in free throw percentage and 287th in 3-point percentage. They get just 19.6 percent of their points from behind the three-point line, which ranks 320th nationally.

Ugh, those are devastating statistics. I get the lack of scoring from beyond the arc, but if you're going to focus on paint play and mid-range jumpers, you have got to hit your free throws. The poor combination above makes for misery.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

I don't think that will happen, but if it does, turn out the lights, Howard.

Realistically, yes. They'd have to win out to have a chance.

But, optimistically, they could win 2 our of the next 3, and then win 10 out of the next 11.

 

[tower912]

I find it amusing that Seth thinks that MU is not good, but Buzz is such a good coach that the season might be savable.   That it has been the culture as much as the talent that has contributed to MU's success.  

IMO, this is how to maximize MU's talent the rest of the year.   This assumes no more injuries and of course does not take into account foul trouble or game flow.     Start Otule, Jamil, Derrick, Jake, and either Todd or Deonte.     Oxtule experiment ends.   They split the minutes 24 Ox/16 Otule.   Mayo gets 26-29 mpg.   Jamil plays almost exclusively at the stretch 4, with Juan getting around 12 mpg off of the bench, both for Jamil and Deonte.     Dawson starts coming in for Derrick about 1 dead ball prior to the media TO's, giving him 4-6 minutes and giving Derrick a breather.    STjr gets only foul trouble minutes until he is healed.  


More 3 guard sets.   Less Oxtule.   More putting the game on Jamil and Todd's back.  
Make your FT's, run more down-screens for Jake, let the wings feed Gardner instead of Derrick.   Against a 2-3 zone, put Deonte at the foul line.

[Lennys Tap]

I find it amusing that Seth that MU is not good, but Buzz is such a good coach that the season might be savable.   That it has been the culture as much as the talent that has contributed to MU's success.  

Yeah, obviously Seth doesn't read Scoop. If he did he'd know Buzz is the problem. Ners takes over and we're Final Four bound.

[bilsu]

Besides sucking at threes and free throws we also suck at fast breaks.

[downtown85]

here is his take on MU's chances to make the dance, not too surprising. but his point about 3-point shooting is interesting...

http://m.si.com/3786427/up-in-smoke/

“Certainly if anyone can alchemize this rusty old bucket, it’s the wondrous Brent Williams. But I believe this task is beyond even his considerable powers. It’s not complicated what’s happening here: Marquette can’t shoot. According to kenpom.com the Eagles are ranked 101st in offensive efficiency, 254th in free throw percentage and 287th in 3-point percentage. They get just 19.6 percent of their points from behind the three-point line, which ranks 320th nationally. I’ve always believed that if a team isn’t utilizing the three-point line at a high rate, they may as well be playing 4 on 5. There are too many teams taking advantage of that part of the game to think you can compete consistently without it.

Yes, Marquette did not expect to lose Vander Blue to the pros, and the season-ending injury to freshman point guard Duane Wilson was a tough blow. This program has won big in recent years much more because of its culture than its talent, so it is more vulnerable to personnel losses. I’ll be interested to see if Buzz can resurrect this, but as of now, it looks like the team that was picked to win the Big East conference in the preseason will not even make the NCAA tournament.”

I am having trouble finding logic in the bolded statement above.  If culture is more important than talent then does it really matter if you one or another player gets hurt?  It seems like the opposite conclusion would be true, i.e., the team is less vulnerable by personnel losses.

[forgetful]

I am having trouble finding logic in the bolded statement above.  If culture is more important than talent then does it really matter if you one or another player gets hurt?  It seems like the opposite conclusion would be true, i.e., the team is less vulnerable by personnel losses.

Confused me at first too.  I think what he is saying is that a lot of people expect MU to be very good, because their recent success implies they have had a lot of talent.

Rather, they have always had minimal talent that they maximized...therefore outperforming expectations.

The problem is then, if the talent they did have leaves (aka Vander), there really is a dearth of backup options.  In that regard they are significantly more affected by a loss of talent (there isn't anyone to step up in their place).

In that type of situation, they still outperform their talent but that isn't enough to live up to the expectations.

[willie warrior]

Besides sucking at threes and free throws we also suck at fast breaks.

Amen. I only recall one this, year 4 on 1 and Jamil blew an 8 footer.

[forgetful]

Amen. I only recall one this, year 4 on 1 and Jamil blew an 8 footer.

You haven't been watching.  We have had more than 1 alley oop of a fast break, one failed miserably.  Against Xavier (I think), Mayo had two run out fast breaks in the same game.

Fewer, yes, but we have had plenty of fast breaks.  Biggest difference is Junior loved to fire the ball ahead (led to some turnovers, but also fast break points), D. Wilson is more reluctant to do so.

[willie warrior]

You haven't been watching.  We have had more than 1 alley oop of a fast break, one failed miserably.  Against Xavier (I think), Mayo had two run out fast breaks in the same game.

Fewer, yes, but we have had plenty of fast breaks.  Biggest difference is Junior loved to fire the ball ahead (led to some turnovers, but also fast break points), D. Wilson is more reluctant to do so.

OK, we had 3 this year. And yes, Jr. pushed the ball on the break. Judging by your slam to Jr., you prefer Derrick, but that is OK, because Buzz insists he is a game changer--something he never said of Jr.

[keefe]

Yeah, obviously Seth doesn't read Scoop. If he did he'd know Buzz is the problem.

Anyone call Mayo Smith about his availability?

[forgetful]

OK, we had 3 this year. And yes, Jr. pushed the ball on the break. Judging by your slam to Jr., you prefer Derrick, but that is OK, because Buzz insists he is a game changer--something he never said of Jr.

Ummm, actually going back until his freshman year I have always been a fan and supporter of Junior.  I really like him as a player and have said even recently that this team misses Junior and would be better with him.

In fact I took flack last year for defending Junior.  I have both defended and criticized Derek this year. 

[NersEllenson]

Yeah, obviously Seth doesn't read Scoop. If he did he'd know Buzz is the problem. Ners takes over and we're Final Four bound.

Thanks Lenny.  But come on my friend, you know that I have long been one of Buzz's biggest fans, supporters, and still am.  The fact I disagree on his distribution of minutes at the PG and SG spot, doesn't mean I still don't love the guy.  Just frustrated, and think distributing the minutes at those two positions quite differently could really help the team.  IF we are being honest, this is the worst a Buzz team has looked - and there is a lot of talent on the roster - far more than during the season of the midgets, in which we all thought Buzz worked miracles...and did.

[Jay Bee]

here is his take on MU's chances to make the dance, not too surprising. but his point about 3-point shooting is interesting...

“They get just 19.6 percent of their points from behind the three-point line, which ranks 320th nationally. I’ve always believed that if a team isn’t utilizing the three-point line at a high rate, they may as well be playing 4 on 5. There are too many teams taking advantage of that part of the game to think you can compete consistently without it."

Always dangerous when non-numbers guys start trying to talk about numbers.

Last year Louisville was #287 nationally in 3FG points distribution.

Or take last year's MU team.. one of the other Elite 8's: Just 18.5% of their points came from 3's.. and they shot just 29.6% (vs. 19.6% and 31.0% this year).

Dumb.

[MU82]

here is his take on MU's chances to make the dance, not too surprising. but his point about 3-point shooting is interesting...

http://m.si.com/3786427/up-in-smoke/

“Certainly if anyone can alchemize this rusty old bucket, it’s the wondrous Brent Williams. But I believe this task is beyond even his considerable powers. It’s not complicated what’s happening here: Marquette can’t shoot. According to kenpom.com the Eagles are ranked 101st in offensive efficiency, 254th in free throw percentage and 287th in 3-point percentage. They get just 19.6 percent of their points from behind the three-point line, which ranks 320th nationally. I’ve always believed that if a team isn’t utilizing the three-point line at a high rate, they may as well be playing 4 on 5. There are too many teams taking advantage of that part of the game to think you can compete consistently without it.

Yes, Marquette did not expect to lose Vander Blue to the pros, and the season-ending injury to freshman point guard Duane Wilson was a tough blow. This program has won big in recent years much more because of its culture than its talent, so it is more vulnerable to personnel losses. I’ll be interested to see if Buzz can resurrect this, but as of now, it looks like the team that was picked to win the Big East conference in the preseason will not even make the NCAA tournament.”

Hmmm ... this reminds me of my favorite Scooper's insistence that the enormous 3-point deficit MU faces nearly every night is an absolute killer. Combine that with the enormous PG-scoring deficit we face nearly every game and it's an almost impossible 1-2 punch to overcome.

[77ncaachamps]

Fewer, yes, but we have had plenty of fast breaks.  Biggest difference is Junior loved to fire the ball ahead (led to some turnovers, but also fast break points), D. Wilson is more reluctant to do so.

Because that's where the hoop is located.