Pre season conf ranking Big East

[CAGASS24]

http://network.yardbarker.com/all_sports/article_external/2013_14_college_basketball_conference_snapshot_big_east/13724975

[CAGASS24]

I didn't know Grant Gibbs from Creighton was potentially seeking a 6th year;

[Galway Eagle]

seems about right though I feel like Depaul next year could be a bubble team before returning to the basement again. 

[ATLmarquettefan]

I'm not sure if I wouldn't put Georgetown ahead of us.  Smith-Rivera is going to be a stud next year, and they return a lot of their core.

[dgies9156]

Fun to think about, but an absolutely ridiculous exercise this time of year. We have about 160 days until basketball season and some of our keys to next year aren't even on campus yet.

I think we have a great team and a genuine potential to reach the promised land in 2013-2014. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. There is a lot of work to be done and only the big Jesuit in the sky knows how all of the variables among 10 teams will work out. And, with all due respect to those who prognosticate, I don't think that Jesuit has shown his hand... yet.

Let's check back in late October on this one!

[CAGASS24]

Will be interesting to see how the squad deals with a true round robin home and home schedule too.  This season is going to be really, really fun.  I just hope one of our new guys get rolling.  Seems like the media loves the freshman phenom angle.  Here's hoping for JJJ for first team all conf

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I have Georgetown and Creighton above us. Butler is losing nearly half of its offense, so I extremely doubt that they will be in the top half.

My list:
Creighton (If Gibbs pulls an Otule, 2nd if he is denied)
Georgetown
Marquette
Villanova
Saint John's
Providence
Xavier
Butler
Seton Hall
DePaul

[dwaderoy2004]

Am I crazy to think that 8 teams will be battling for NCAA bids next year (everyone but Seton Hall and DePaul)?  Not saying all 8 make it, but the talent is there I think.  I really like Providence as a dark horse next year, especially.

[WarriorInNYC]

Am I crazy to think that 8 teams will be battling for NCAA bids next year (everyone but Seton Hall and DePaul)?  Not saying all 8 make it, but the talent is there I think.  I really like Providence as a dark horse next year, especially.

I thought the same thing when going through that list.  I don't think 8 will make it either, but the top 8 will definitely have legitimate shots at doing so.  Gonna be tough to get many in when they'll be beating each other up in conference play.

[frozena pizza]

Am I crazy to think that 8 teams will be battling for NCAA bids next year (everyone but Seton Hall and DePaul)?  Not saying all 8 make it, but the talent is there I think.  I really like Providence as a dark horse next year, especially.

I was thinking that too.  I would bet on 4-5 getting in, but agree that 8 will have a legitimate shot.  Going to be a fun year.

[GooooMarquette]

Agreed on there being about 8 teams fighting for bids, but about 5 actually getting them.  MU, Creighton and Georgetown look pretty solid for 3 of the bids, but quite a few teams will be banging at the door.

Loving the idea of the double round robin.  It probably won't last if/when we go to 12, but this should be a fun season.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The scary thing about this conference is that the bottom team could beat the top team on any given night. I think Seton Hall and DePaul are the consensus bottomfeeders for the conference next year, but both teams will be much improved from last year. Seton Hall gets a lot of players back from injury and bring in a decent class with a very talented juco. Depaul will start four seniors and bring in a class with an ESPN 100 recruit.

I would say that every team but DePaul is talented enough to be in the tournament. Only 4-6 will make it but more will be in the bubble conversation.

[wadesworld]

Seems like every year we're saying teams like Seton Hall, St. John's, Providence, etc. could make the leap and contend for an NCAA bid. Then the season actually comes around and they're fighting for 13th place. Until one of them actually has a good season, I'm going to hold off on my hopes for any of them to be competitive. And Xavier was awful last year.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Seems like every year we're saying teams like Seton Hall, St. John's, Providence, etc. could make the leap and contend for an NCAA bid. Then the season actually comes around and they're fighting for 13th place. Until one of them actually has a good season, I'm going to hold off on my hopes for any of them to be competitive. And Xavier was awful last year.

Seton Hall, legitimate point.

Providence, they were at least a fringe bubble team this year and had the unexpected Ledo debacle. They will be better next year, but I agree, probably not a tourney team.

St. John's was a 6 seed in the tournament two years ago. This year their coach had to deal with a lot of personal issues. They only lose a single role player and add a 5 star recruit. They will be in the tournament next year.

[frozena pizza]

Butler is losing nearly half of its offense, so I extremely doubt that they will be in the top half.

We are actually losing more scoring than they are.

[The Equalizer]

If the goal is to maximize NCAA bids, we'd actually be better off if we had 3 really bad teams to suck up all the conference losses, and leave 7 teams at .500 or better. 

With an 18 game schedule and 10 teams, the league will play 90 games and there will only be 90 total wins across the 10 teams.

For the sake of argument, let's build out the standings in a way that would maximize NCAA bids:

First place team goes 15-3.  That leaves 75 total wins for 9 teams
Second place:  14-4 record, 61 wins for 8 teams
Third place:  13-5 record, 48 more for 7 teams
Fourth place: 12-6 record, 36 wins for 6 teams
Fifth place: 11-7 record, 25 wins for 5 teams
Sixth place:  10-8 record, 15 wins for 4 teams.
Seventh place: 9-9 record, 6 wins for the remaining 3 teams

The bottom three teams will play each other twice each, accounting for those 6 total wins.
Eight place: 4-14
Ninth place: 2-16
Tenth palce: 0-18

Worst case is if those bottom teams become competitive.  We could wind up with standings that look like this (and only 3 NCAA bids):

1st  15-3
2nd 14-4
3rd  13-6
4th  8-10
5th  8-10
6th  8-10
7th 7-11
8th 6-12
9th 6-12
10th 5-13

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

We are actually losing more scoring than they are.

I am aware. We are losing 45% of our scoring and Butler is losing 44% of theirs. That 1% is made up by the fact that we have a top 10 recruiting class coming in and Butler's doesn't register on anyone's top 50. We also have a deeper rotation and can thus make up for losses better than Butler can.

Equalizer, completely agree with your analysis. Unfortunately, we have a very competitive conference. I would bet solid money on every team being in the RPI top 150 and would only be a little surprised to see all 10 in the top 100. Unless there are some injuries or unexpected departures (or players don't live up to expectations), I don't see there being true bottom feeders.

We have four rock solid tourney teams (Marquette, Georgetown, Creighton, Villanova), two likely bubble teams (Providence, St. John's), and three fringe bubble teams (Butler, Xavier, and Seton Hall). I would bet on 5 and hope for 6.