Net Points This Year vs Last

[Henry Sugar]

I'm going to do a few posts comparing each player's net points contributions for this year vs last year.

To start with, Net Points is taken from "Basketball on Paper", which is also known as the book that invented the entire concepts of Offensive Efficiency, the Four Factors, and Offensive Rating. It's a view of a player's net impact on the margin of victory (or loss). There are issues with the statistic, but I find that it generally meets the "eye test" of how well a player is performing or not.

First, Gardner.



The basketball stats love Gardner for two reasons. First, a lot of credit is given for making free throws (because those are points created by the player). Second, defensive performance is only based on an approximation from the box score. Having said that, he is trending better than last year.

Note: The flat line from last year is when Gardner was injured and sat out.

[Henry Sugar]

Vander



Last year, Vander feasted on the OOC opponents. Then he struggled at the beginning of the BE season, but turned it around and finished strong.

This year, the numbers show what we've all seen. He's been one of the best players on the team, with very few poor performances.

[Henry Sugar]

Junior



The stats have never been very kind to PGs in the Buzz offense, nor Junior in particular. In general, assists are not highly valued from an efficiency perspective. For Junior, he's just not an offensively efficient player. He turns the ball over worse than average and is below average from an efficiency perspective. (note: I'm not hating on Junior... just pointing out some facts)

Last year, Junior started strong, was basically flat for the non-conference season, and then got worse throughout conference season.

This year, he was flat early, had a stretch of very strong games, and since then has been flat / up and down. Way better than last year, though.

[Henry Sugar]

Repost of Jamil.



Better than last year, but more inconsistent. Seems to have turned the corner a bit and will hopefully finish strong like last year.

[Henry Sugar]

That's all I've done so far. Those are the top four players. If there are requests for specific players, let me know.

[ATL MU Warrior]

these are very cool.  Thanks for posting.

[Aughnanure]

Thanks Warrior's Path. Very useful and enlightening. OOC success can be so misleading

[Henry Sugar]

A few points here
Defensive Rating has a lot of issues. It doesn't cover off the ball defense very well at all. They're entirely based on how good the team is defensively, and then adjusted based on defensive stats in the box score (DR, steals, blocks). For example, the defense played by Dominic James, where his man wouldn't ever get the ball or take a shot, gets no credit in these ratings. Vander gets less credit here.

Things need to be put in context of usage. For example, Lockett vs Ferguson.

Again, point guards in the Buzz offense get the shaft. Buzz himself has said that Derrick Wilson shows very negatively if you look at the stats.

These are the aggregate season numbers and won't exactly match the season trends shown up above. Also, the trend of a player over time is more interesting.

Free Steve Taylor!

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Has anybody regressed this year?

AND...

I think this is good news because if the same guys can get better next year, maybe we won't hear "We need better players!"

[Silkk the Shaka]

Has anybody regressed this year?

AND...

I think this is good news because if the same guys can get better next year, maybe we won't hear "We need better players!"

Marginal improvement from the returnees and a legitimate contribution from a couple of the newcomers (Jameel + 1 frosh) and this team is a major threat next year.  Anything more than what I just described and it will be a VERY fun season indeed.

[Silkk the Shaka]

A few points here
Defensive Rating has a lot of issues. It doesn't cover off the ball defense very well at all. They're entirely based on how good the team is defensively, and then adjusted based on defensive stats in the box score (DR, steals, blocks). For example, the defense played by Dominic James, where his man wouldn't ever get the ball or take a shot, gets no credit in these ratings. Vander gets less credit here.

Things need to be put in context of usage. For example, Lockett vs Ferguson.

Again, point guards in the Buzz offense get the shaft. Buzz himself has said that Derrick Wilson shows very negatively if you look at the stats.

These are the aggregate season numbers and won't exactly match the season trends shown up above. Also, the trend of a player over time is more interesting.

Free Steve Taylor!

First of all, thanks for doing the legwork on this.

Second of all, I couldn't agree more with the bolded.  Not only does Steve pass the eye test, he passes the stats test too.  An offseason or two with Todd combined with experience in the system and I see no reason why Steve can't reach Jimmy B/Crowder/Hayward levels.

[Tugg Speedman]

You have Mayo stats?  How about Lockett this year versus last year at ASU?  Is that a fair comparison?

[JD]

Whoa Jamil, looks like my stock profile 

[Henry Sugar]

You have Mayo stats?  How about Lockett this year versus last year at ASU?  Is that a fair comparison?

Mayo had a very strong OOC performance last year, and then struggled with conference play. This year he's had two good stretches sandwiched around a bad stretch.

Doing these stats is a manual process where I have to enter them manually for every game. Therefore, I do not have Lockett's stats for last year at ASU.

[Henry Sugar]

Lockett

[🏀]

That's all I've done so far. Those are the top four players. If there are requests for specific players, let me know.

Jake Thomas?

[JD]

Lockett

Funny about Lockett, i thought he's been doing much better as of late.

[Henry Sugar]

Jake Thomas?

Really? It's just a downward sloping line.

Funny about Lockett, i thought he's been doing much better as of late.

Well, this does show a four game stretch of playing well, and then DePaul, and then pretty much everyone sucked at Georgetown.

[🏀]

Really? It's just a downward sloping line.

Lines gotta start somewhere, right?