Syracuse losing

[karavotsos]

And completely misleading.  According to Brew's own bracket, the wins against 'tournament and/or bubble teams' w/ Otule were against seeds 15, 15, 8, and currently not in.

The losses w/o Otule are to a 1, 3 and 5 seed.

Like previous post said, not difficult to see that competition has increased since the injury.  Also, I believe there was an adjustment period and the front-line players had to change to new things they were expected to do.  One of the best parts of the last month is how Gardner and Wilson have both stepped up to the challenge.

[wadesworld]

4-0 against likely tournament or bubble teams with Otule.

3-4 against likely tournament or bubble teams without Otule.

Not sure which way this was meant to steer the argument, but you can then say this about Syracuse:

20-0 with Fab Melo (1.000)
0-1 without Fab Melo (0.000)

Or you could question whether we would be undefeated if Otule had remained healthy but either DJO or Cadougan went down.  My guess is the answer to those questions would be: NO.  Even with the 4-0 against likely tournament/bubble teams with Otule, the competition is still much tougher during our 3-4 stretch without him against likely tournament/bubble teams.

My guess is you looked at it like this: 4-0 includes Ole Miss (more bubble than tourney), Wisconsin (more tourney, but not a lock), and I'm not sure who?  Norfolk State? And we're 2-0 against them.  I mean, they're a possible (even likely) tournament team because they're likely to win their conference tournament team, but they have no chance at an at-large bid if they don't.  Their biggest win is over an 11-7 (1-2 in the MWC) TCU team.  They have losses to ELIZ (who doesn't even have a team page on ESPN.com, so I'm not sure who that even is...probably a D2 or D3 team since they don't have a page?) and Illinois State (4-5 in the MVC).  I wouldn't consider them a likely NCAA/bubble team, otherwise you could make the case that absolutely everyone on our schedule is, as long as they win their conference tournament, which would technically be true.  So I would say that record is much more like 2-0 than it is 4-0.

My guess is you would consider the 3-4 record as:
Wins over: Washington, Louisville, and...???  UWM?  Between Pitt, Nova, St. John's, and Proivdence they have 6 total Big East wins, so I'm assuming you aren't considering any of those as bubble or potential NCAA teams?
Anyways, Washington is much, much more bubble and similar to Morehead State as the Pac 12 very well may only get 1 bid this year.  UWM is exactly like Morehead State as they have 0 chance at an at-large bid but very well could win the Horizon League Tournament, but still, can't really consider them a bubble/NCAA team at this point for SOS purposes.  And Louisville needs to turn things around to make the NCAA and is more out than in at this point.  Their Big East wins are against Pitt, Depaul, and St. John's and only win over an NCAA Tournament team is against Vanderbilt at home before Ezili was back.

Losses to: LSU, Vanderbilt, Georgetown, Syracuse (only 4 losses on the year, so that was fairly easy to figure out ;-)).
LSU is hardly even on the bubble and will need about 5 wins against top SEC teams to get in (or an SEC Tournament win).  Other than that, now that Vanderbilt is healthy they have Final Four talent (I realize they lost at home yesterday, but it was in overtime to a top 15 team and they will only get better as Ezili gets more and more involved...they also have 3 first round draft picks this year, which is a formula for Tourney success), Syracuse is an obvious Final Four threat, and Georgetown could go to the Elite Eight, although I expect them to fall off a bit, but still a much better team than Wisconsin and Ole Miss.

So I would argue are records are more like:
2-0 against bubble/NCAA Tournament teams with Otule
1-3 against bubble/NCAA Tournament teams without Otule

And the competition in those games have been far and away tougher without Otule than with Otule.

[JoBo2756]

I disagree with almost all of these posts on this thread.

I think its a BIG DEAL for ND to beat No. 1 Syracuse. Remember ND is without Tim Abromaitis who is clearly the best player on their team. They aren't really the ND of recent year's past who could give any BEAST team a game. They are 12-8, have lost to Cincinnati, UCONN and Rutgers along with five other in non-conference play. Imagine if MU lost to Georgia, MIZZOU, Gonzaga, Maryland and Indiana (what ND did in their non-conference play), then they beat the No. 1 Team.... nobody in South Bend would say that was "expected."

Syracuse is a No. 1 team and has been for a long time. As others have mentioned, Syracuse has a decent replacement for Melo.

I think this was a big win for ND and as much as I HATE their guts, I think they deserve much more credit than people saying their win was "expected" because Melo is out. BS.

[bilsu]

And completely misleading.  According to Brew's own bracket, the wins against 'tournament and/or bubble teams' w/ Otule were against seeds 15, 15, 8, and currently not in.

The losses w/o Otule are to a 1, 3 and 5 seed.

Like previous post said, not difficult to see that competition has increased since the injury.  Also, I believe there was an adjustment period and the front-line players had to change to new things they were expected to do.  One of the best parts of the last month is how Gardner and Wilson have both stepped up to the challenge.

Isn't that in itself misleading. You could argue that if we had Otule and won those three games that those teams would not be projected as 1, 3 and 5 seeds. conversely, if Otule had missed the games he played in and we lost to those teams they might be projected higher than 15, 15 and 8th.

[Hoopaloop]

Nope. I'd say Otule's more important than Melo. Melo scores a couple more and rebounds a little more (literally, Melo averages 2.2 points and 1.3 rebounds more per game than Otule). His blocks are huge, but Syracuse has another able replacement in Keita that can fill the role and also averages over a block a game. It took us over a month to put together a truly dominant performance after Otule went out because no one could do what he did. Not the case for Syracuse.

Melo is a better player, and has a better prospective pro career, but in terms of importance to their respective teams, I definitely feel Otule is more important than Melo.

Melo also built some of those stats up against Big East competition while Otule played no Big East games.  Not exactly the same resume of competition. 

[karavotsos]

Isn't that in itself misleading. You could argue that if we had Otule and won those three games that those teams would not be projected as 1, 3 and 5 seeds. conversely, if Otule had missed the games he played in and we lost to those teams they might be projected higher than 15, 15 and 8th.

Huh?

The 15 and 8 are Norfolk State and Wisconsin.  The bubble team is Ole Miss, I assume.  If you believe games against Norfolk State at home and on a neutral floor and the game against WI, even on their home floor this year, are equivalent difficulty to games against SU, GU and Vandy, that's fine.  I would disagree.

I would say UW has an 8 next to their name right now largely because of their 3 game losing streak that included a home loss to Iowa.  Norfolk has a 15 bcs they are a low auto-bid school.  The only reason they came close to MU in the second game is MU was not ready to play against zone yet.

Of the teams we lost to, even if Syracuse lost to us, they would be a 2 right now.  Vandy is only a 5 because of injuries and inconsistency at the beginning of the year and will likely be higher by the end of the year.  They also have the talent of a 2 or a 3.  Georgetown would probably still be a 4 if we beat them.

So no I don't think its misleading.  It shines a light on the fact that the competition that we lost to after we lost Otule was better than the competition we played before we lost him.  If you want to argue that Wisconsin, Norfolk State and Ole Miss are as good as Syracuse, Georgetown and Vandy feel free to do so. 

I am not saying Otule would not have had an impact on those games.  As I said, it was an adjustment to play without him.  Especially defensively, he was a huge presence.   

 

[Golden Avalanche]

4-0 against likely tournament or bubble teams with Otule.

3-4 against likely tournament or bubble teams without Otule.

The Warriors lost two games in which they choked on themselves and they lost two games to better squads.

A healthy Otule doesn't change the mental midget errors in the first two losses and he certainly doesn't change the ass kicking received in the first half of the latter two losses.

The ironic part of everyone's argument that Otule is Chamberlain in disguise is that his back-up has played his best stretch of basketball in his absence.

But, I get it, Otule's impact isn't statistical anyway. He did all the little things.

[wadesworld]

The Warriors lost two games in which they choked on themselves and they lost two games to better squads.

A healthy Otule doesn't change the mental midget errors in the first two losses and he certainly doesn't change the ass kicking received in the first half of the latter two losses.

The ironic part of everyone's argument that Otule is Chamberlain in disguise is that his back-up has played his best stretch of basketball in his absence.

But, I get it, Otule's impact isn't statistical anyway. He did all the little things.

A healthy Otule and we probably win the Georgetown game and definitely win the LSU game.

I would hope the bolded part would be true.  He's getting a ton more minutes and getting more consistent minutes.  Anybody's effectiveness would increase in that circumstance.  Not ironic at all and has nothing to do with Otule besides the fact that he's not there to split the minutes with Gardner.

[Silkk the Shaka]

But, I get it, Otule's impact isn't statistical anyway. He did all the little things.

Belittle that sentiment all you want, but Buzz said after the Louisville game that Chris led the team in assists without ever touching the ball.  He was great at using his body to clear out the lane for open drives for players like DJO, Cadougan, and Blue.  And like it or not, but Gardner has had some foul trouble and matchup problems over this stretch as well.  When he's on the bench, wouldn't it be more advantageous to have a 6'11" 265 lb. space clearing shot blocker on the court?  Or do you think players like that don't matter in the Big East?

[brewcity77]

And completely misleading.  According to Brew's own bracket, the wins against 'tournament and/or bubble teams' w/ Otule were against seeds 15, 15, 8, and currently not in.

The losses w/o Otule are to a 1, 3 and 5 seed.

Like previous post said, not difficult to see that competition has increased since the injury.  Also, I believe there was an adjustment period and the front-line players had to change to new things they were expected to do.  One of the best parts of the last month is how Gardner and Wilson have both stepped up to the challenge.

The 4 wins with Otule, 15 NSU, Bubble Ole Miss, 15 NSU, 8 UW.

The 4 losses without Otule, 1 Syracuse, 3 GTown, 5 Vandy, Bubble LSU

The 3 wins without Otule, Bubble Washington, 15 Milwaukee, 9 Louisville.

Ole Miss is probably the best of the three bubble teams. LSU did have 2 bad early losses, and probably need another marquee win to offset those, as well as an extra marquee win along with beating the teams they should beat. If they go 9-7 or 10-6 in the SEC, they'll have a decent case, especially as that would mean a couple wins over MSU, Kentucky, Vandy, or 'Bama. Washington is bubble mainly because they could win the Pac-12 outright. They're only a half-game back in league play and I'm guessing there will be 2 Pac-12 teams that get bids. Washington doesn't have any truly bad losses, but 13-5 or better in league play (definitely possible) would have them in the mix.

Regardless, I don't see what's misleading at all about it. True, we've played some better teams, but I definitely think we win 2 more with Otule. The LSU game wasn't so much them winning as us losing, imo. Our lack of length killed us. The Georgetown game, again, we allowed too much penetration into the lane late in the game during their comeback. Having a defensive stopper would have definitely reduced that significantly.

I realize if if's were dollars we'd all be rich, but we aren't the same team without him, and only now are truly learning how to play as a team. I see us sort of like a Missouri light. We're really talented and can hang with pretty much anyone, but our size is still an Achilles' Heel. We had one guy to fix that, and without him, it makes us a lot more like our 2009-10 team. Talented, spunky, and able to overachieve, but unable to be considered truly elite.

I also agree that I'm happy to see how DG and Jamil have stepped up. But it definitely wasn't an overnight process. They're doing a better job on the defensive end than we saw early on (massive interior problems against Washington, LSU, Green Bay, Vandy) but I still don't think we're as good there as we were when Otule was in. The real benefits of this will be seen next year, when both of those two are better players due to the increased PT, and we have our defensive stopper back in CO.

[Golden Avalanche]

A healthy Otule and we probably win the Georgetown game and definitely win the LSU game.

I would hope the bolded part would be true.  He's getting a ton more minutes and getting more consistent minutes.  Anybody's effectiveness would increase in that circumstance.  Not ironic at all and has nothing to do with Otule besides the fact that he's not there to split the minutes with Gardner.

I happen to disagree. MU made mental errors in both games leading to the loss. I'm not sure how a serviceable 5 who splits time at his position would fix those mental errors.

The ironic part is that we have production out of the 5 spot we haven't really seen since MJax without compromising a 4 out of position. We wouldn't be getting that if Otule was still playing and time was split.

[Golden Avalanche]

Belittle that sentiment all you want, but Buzz said after the Louisville game that Chris led the team in assists without ever touching the ball.  He was great at using his body to clear out the lane for open drives for players like DJO, Cadougan, and Blue.  And like it or not, but Gardner has had some foul trouble and matchup problems over this stretch as well.  When he's on the bench, wouldn't it be more advantageous to have a 6'11" 265 lb. space clearing shot blocker on the court?  Or do you think players like that don't matter in the Big East?

I fully expect the coach in any sport to say that. He's not doing his job if he doesn't bring up how an injured player can help the team. Nearly all of them do it.

Clearly, you'd want to bring size off the bench in an ideal world but the way MU has largely played for the last decade you can find some success without that size. It isn't the reason MU lost those four games.

Shocking, but I don't consider Otule a shot blocker. At the least, with his size, you'd expect 1-2 a game. Besides, Otule has rarely played in the Big East over his three incomplete seasons, and he's only had a couple games where his shot blocking had an impact so I think it's a tad incomplete of a resume to regard him a shot-blocker at this time.

[tower912]

I happen to disagree. MU made mental errors in both games leading to the loss. I'm not sure how a serviceable 5 who splits time at his position would fix those mental errors.

The ironic part is that we have production out of the 5 spot we haven't really seen since MJax without compromising a 4 out of position. We wouldn't be getting that if Otule was still playing and time was split.

I agree that this team made mental errors against G-town.   They excelled when they started running the offense out of the high post and stopped going to the low blocks where we did a really good job of trapping them for the first 28 minutes.   But we only needed two defensive stops on them during the last 12 minutes and we can win that game.   I think it is reasonable to argue that with Otule in guarding their high post, we get a couple of deflections, altered shots, or defensive rebounds.

[Silkk the Shaka]

I fully expect the coach in any sport to say that. He's not doing his job if he doesn't bring up how an injured player can help the team. Nearly all of them do it.

Clearly, you'd want to bring size off the bench in an ideal world but the way MU has largely played for the last decade you can find some success without that size. It isn't the reason MU lost those four games.

Shocking, but I don't consider Otule a shot blocker. At the least, with his size, you'd expect 1-2 a game. Besides, Otule has rarely played in the Big East over his three incomplete seasons, and he's only had a couple games where his shot blocking had an impact so I think it's a tad incomplete of a resume to regard him a shot-blocker at this time.

He was blocking shots at a 10% clip, only bettered by the three best shot blockers in the Big East, Drummond, Melo, and Dieng.  Last year, through a FULL Big East season, he blocked shots at an 8.9% clip, good for second best in the Big East behind only Terrence Jennings.  Not sure what your definition of shot blocker is, but I think he fits the bill.

[wadesworld]

Shocking, but I don't consider Otule a shot blocker. At the least, with his size, you'd expect 1-2 a game. Besides, Otule has rarely played in the Big East over his three incomplete seasons, and he's only had a couple games where his shot blocking had an impact so I think it's a tad incomplete of a resume to regard him a shot-blocker at this time.

Huh?  "At the least, with his size, you'd expect 1-2 a game."  So, he was averaging 1.6 blocks/game this year (in 18 minutes), 1.5 blocks/game last year (in 18 minutes), and 1.7 blocks/game 3 years ago (in 8.3 minutes in like 4 games).  The only year he averaged under 1 block/game was his freshman year, when he averaged 0.6 in just under 7 minutes per game.  So I guess he has lived up to your expectations, so I'm not sure where you were going with that...

[tower912]

Chris had 13 blocks in the first 7 games.   He had no blocks in 2 minutes against Washington.     It is more accurate to say he was averaging 1.8 blocks per game.   40 points and 35 rebounds in the same first 7 games, so again, it is more accurate to say he averaged 5.8 pts and 5 rebounds a game, in just over 20 minutes.    Playing 2 minutes against Washington with nothing but 0's but still getting credit for a game played skews his stats downward.   

[wadesworld]

Chris had 13 blocks in the first 7 games.   He had no blocks in 2 minutes against Washington.     It is more accurate to say he was averaging 1.8 blocks per game.   40 points and 35 rebounds in the same first 7 games, so again, it is more accurate to say he averaged 5.8 pts and 5 rebounds a game, in just over 20 minutes.    Playing 2 minutes against Washington with nothing but 0's but still getting credit for a game played skews his stats downward.   

Good catch.

[MUMac]

I happen to disagree. MU made mental errors in both games leading to the loss. I'm not sure how a serviceable 5 who splits time at his position would fix those mental errors.

The ironic part is that we have production out of the 5 spot we haven't really seen since MJax without compromising a 4 out of position. We wouldn't be getting that if Otule was still playing and time was split.

Your assumption is that the game plays out exactly the same.  Others disagree.  Would those "mental errors" have impacted the game had Otule played?  Would it have come down to that?  You believe so.  I am not so certain. 

Otule helps in a myriad of ways.  The least of which is depth.  He was MU's best interior defender.  It has taken a while for the team to learn how to play without Otule and his shot blocking ability back there. 

Does LSU get all the put backs in the 1st half if Otule plays?  Does MU get some offensive boards in some of those games that might impact?

MU is a better team with Otule than without Otule.  That is the belief of many, but apparently not you.

[Golden Avalanche]

He was blocking shots at a 10% clip, only bettered by the three best shot blockers in the Big East, Drummond, Melo, and Dieng.  Last year, through a FULL Big East season, he blocked shots at an 8.9% clip, good for second best in the Big East behind only Terrence Jennings.  Not sure what your definition of shot blocker is, but I think he fits the bill.

Does that mean he blocks a shot 10% of the time the other team has a possession? And we're talking this season, right? Early? Those cupcakes at 10%?

I think your stat moreso reflects the lack of true centers in the Big East then it does Otule being considered a strong shot blocker. When I think of Otule's game, shot blocking isn't at the top of the list.

[Golden Avalanche]

Huh?  "At the least, with his size, you'd expect 1-2 a game."  So, he was averaging 1.6 blocks/game this year (in 18 minutes), 1.5 blocks/game last year (in 18 minutes), and 1.7 blocks/game 3 years ago (in 8.3 minutes in like 4 games).  The only year he averaged under 1 block/game was his freshman year, when he averaged 0.6 in just under 7 minutes per game.  So I guess he has lived up to your expectations, so I'm not sure where you were going with that...

My point is that Otule does what you'd expect him to do with his size. No more. Look at a kid like Anthony Davis. Shorter then Otule yet he's a dominating presence defensively with his blocking ability. Certain players will always get a couple a game. It's the elite that get more to be considered a shot blocker.

For example, guys like Maxiell and Hicks (formerly of Cincinnati) I consider more impactful in terms of disrupting penetration with their shot blocking/altering ability. Those guys were 6'7'' yet they influenced near everything that came their way.

[Golden Avalanche]

Your assumption is that the game plays out exactly the same.  Others disagree.  Would those "mental errors" have impacted the game had Otule played?  Would it have come down to that?  You believe so.  I am not so certain. 

Otule helps in a myriad of ways.  The least of which is depth.  He was MU's best interior defender.  It has taken a while for the team to learn how to play without Otule and his shot blocking ability back there. 

Does LSU get all the put backs in the 1st half if Otule plays?  Does MU get some offensive boards in some of those games that might impact?

MU is a better team with Otule than without Otule.  That is the belief of many, but apparently not you.

How does Otule playing reverse the mental error of DJO dribbling thrice into double team coverage with a turnover occurring? How does Otule playing reverse the mental error of Crowder taking bad trailing 3s in the second half? How does Otule playing reverse Blue's jump passes that ended up in the hands of LSU's frosh PG?

I agree that Otule brings positives. Never said he didn't. In fact, earlier this year I was impressed with his improvement. However, I just don't agree that he's some sort of shot blocking force that apparently many here believe him to be.

As for put backs, I'm not sure. MU wasn't exactly strong in the defensive rebounding area with Otule whether it be the early games this season or all of last season. It's been a fatal flaw going back to the Crean days.

I believe either incarnation (with Otule and without) of MU would be a flawed team. I also believe they find ways around those flaws to get success. That's a credit to Buzz. I'm just not going to be that fan who whines about not having a platooning 5 as the reason why MU may not live up to potential this campaign.

The other thread was locked so you couldn't answer but is it true you attend every single MU game in person?

[MUMac]

How does Otule playing reverse the mental error of DJO dribbling thrice into double team coverage with a turnover occurring? How does Otule playing reverse the mental error of Crowder taking bad trailing 3s in the second half? How does Otule playing reverse Blue's jump passes that ended up in the hands of LSU's frosh PG?

I agree that Otule brings positives. Never said he didn't. In fact, earlier this year I was impressed with his improvement. However, I just don't agree that he's some sort of shot blocking force that apparently many here believe him to be.

As for put backs, I'm not sure. MU wasn't exactly strong in the defensive rebounding area with Otule whether it be the early games this season or all of last season. It's been a fatal flaw going back to the Crean days.

I believe either incarnation (with Otule and without) of MU would be a flawed team. I also believe they find ways around those flaws to get success. That's a credit to Buzz. I'm just not going to be that fan who whines about not having a platooning 5 as the reason why MU may not live up to potential this campaign.

The other thread was locked so you couldn't answer but is it true you attend every single MU game in person?

Reading and comprehension must not be your strong suit. 

[Golden Avalanche]

Reading and comprehension must not be your strong suit.  

You are just one snide a$$hole, huh?

[MUMac]

You are just one snide a$$hole, huh?

Pot, meet kettle.  Back at ya!

Seriously, though, your comments above were twisting, distorting and changing what I stated.  I stand by my comment.  That tends to be your MO.