Xavier Scouting report

[downtown85]

I watched a rerun of the Dayton vs. Xavier from Feb 27th.  Here are few observations.

Their Defense-- X's standard defense is man-to-man.  It is a sagging man-to-man where everyone sort of watches the ball and reacts quickly with help on any dribble penetration.  It is almost a sort of zone at times. This does leave a perimeter shooter open for 3pt shots at times but does make dribble penetration and paint touches more difficult.  If we hit a couple of early 3s it should open up their D a bit.  Also, X ran a 1-2-2 and a 2-3 zone also at times just to mix up the defenses.

I think the key will be for Junior to generate the initial penetration forcing help and then passing to find the open man for the shot.  Also, if we can get into a transition game with them, we stand to do well. 

Guards-- On offense, X does have an outstanding back court of Holloway and Lyons. Holloway is really, really good at both scoring and distributing.  Both of their guards can dribble penetrate.  They are excellent at getting to the rim and drawing fouls.  The key to our defense will be to contain Hollway without fouling him.  MU needs to treat him like Marshon Brooks or Kemba Walker.

Free throws-- In fact X gets to the line about at the same rate as MU.  (For comparison, Jimmy Butler has attempted 202 FTs this year, Holloway has taken a total of 263 and hit 86%)  On the other hand, MU doesn’t foul as much as X. If we hit more free throws than X takes, it will be difficult for them to win since they rely on free throws for almost 25% of their points.

.I think the battle of the foul line could be big, especially if we get non-Big East refs and a lot of ticky-tack fouls are called.  Xavier is not very deep (7 man rotation) and if we can get a couple of their key players in foul trouble it could be a long night for them.  Our Depth is clearly superior. 

Our Defense-- I think that we just need to do what we have been doing against Providence and West Virgina and UConn and we will be o.k.  We may want to try to press them.  I am not sure how they are at breaking to the press.  But with our depth vs their lack of depth, the effect of the pressure could be cumulative and could lead to wearing them out. 

Our bigs vs. their bigs--  I actually think we win the match up here.  Otule, Gardner are better than Frease.  Butler and Crowder are better than Jackson and McLean. 

Conclusion--  I think we match up well with Xavier.  If we get going early, we could run away with this game barring no second half meltdown.  If I were Xavier, I would be pretty upset with having to meet MU in the first round. 

[tower912]

I don't think Xavier will present us with anything we haven't seen before.   Clearly a good team.  Nothing but respect for their program and their season.  Honestly, though,  we are our own worst opponent.    If the aggressive offense/running/good defensive rebounding/creating turnovers team shows up, we probably win.   If the afraid to shoot/terrible defensive rebounding/stand around on offense/dumb fouls 30 feet from the basket team shows up, we probably lose.     You just know that somebody is going to have a career day from 3.   Can we push the ball, get some baskets in transition, and create foul trouble and fatigue?   I think our chances are just marginally better than a coin flip in this one. 

[downtown85]

I don't think Xavier will present us with anything we haven't seen before.   Clearly a good team.  Nothing but respect for their program and their season.  Honestly, though,  we are our own worst opponent.    If the aggressive offense/running/good defensive rebounding/creating turnovers team shows up, we probably win.   If the afraid to shoot/terrible defensive rebounding/stand around on offense/dumb fouls 30 feet from the basket team shows up, we probably lose.     You just know that somebody is going to have a career day from 3.   Can we push the ball, get some baskets in transition, and create foul trouble and fatigue?   I think our chances are just marginally better than a coin flip in this one. 

+1 Usually the good team shows up in the first half and the lousy team shows up after halftime.  If we can bring it for 40 minutes, we should cruise to victory.  IMO