[Cracked Sidewalks] NCAAs: Who do we want?

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NCAAs: Who do we want?

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (brewcity77)

So the general opinion of most pundits after Marquette beat Providence  last night is that the Warriors are a lock for the tournament. While we  won't know until Selection Sunday, one thing we can do is look ahead and  start thinking about possible opponents for Marquette in the first  round. Of course, it's tough to predict a potential opponent for a team  projected anywhere from a 6-seed to a 13-seed according to 50webs Bracket Matrix.

There are a few things the Selection Committee tries to do. First, they  have a guideline that they do not schedule teams from the same  conference until the Elite 8. While the Big East getting as many as 11  bids (or 12 if South Florida shocks the world) will make that  impossible, there's still no way any Big East teams play each other  before the Sweet 16. The SC also tries to avoid in-season rematches,  which means that no matter their seed, Marquette shouldn't see  Vanderbilt or Gonzaga in the first round, and are unlikely to see  Wisconsin or Duke in the second round. Finally, the SC tries to avoid  rematches from the past two NCAA tournaments, which takes Utah State,  Missouri, and Washington out of the equation.

So who does that leave? Let's use the current BTB S-Curve to take a look at what opponents Marquette might meet if they end up with the bold-faced seeds:

13-Seed

Kentucky: UK is the only team  on the 4-line Marquette hasn't played. This matchup would be Marquette  and Kentucky's 11th in NCAA tournament history, with MU holding a 6-4  edge. Kentucky is again led by youth, as their top three scorers are all  freshmen. Kentucky has an excellent offense, rated #8 by Pomeroy, but  their 28th-rated defense isn't as impressive. The key is likely slowing  down Brandon Knight. His field goal averages are 39.5% in losses and  47.1% in wins. If MU does get UK, pray that it's nowhere near Rupp  Arena. The Wilcats are 16-0 at home and 6-8 on away or neutral courts.

12-Seed

Arizona: Personally, I love  this matchup. Arizona has kenpom's 18th-ranked offense and 62nd-ranked  defense. They also have taken advantage of a weak PAC-10, and are only  2-4 against the RPI top 50, with both wins coming on home court against  35 UCLA and 47 Washington. They also are fairly small; none of their  regular contributors are bigger than 6'8". Chris Otule could have a  field day against this team.

Xavier: The Musketeers are hot,  going 16-1 since the start of conference play, including a  non-conference game with Georgia. But I have to think we'd go in as a  favorite. They're 1-4 against kenpom's top 50 with an offensive rating  of 31 and defensive of 53. They do have a pair of good guards and a  solid big man, but I really think Marquette is simply the better team.

11-Seed

Kansas State: I'm always wary  of teams that start the season highly rated, slip, then make a big push  late. K-State has done that, winning 7 of 8, including wins over Kansas,  Missouri, and Texas. The Wildcats are incredibly deep, with 10 players  averaging 10+ minutes per game. What scares me most is that they are one  of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. That along with a  stud senior point guard in Jacob Pullen would make for a very difficult  match-up.

10-Seed

Temple: This is an experienced  team with some length, but this match-up would be all about pace.  Temple's opponents have only scored 70+ in six games this season, and  the Owls are 2-4 in those match-ups, with their wins coming against RPI  314 Northern Illinois and 164 LaSalle. Translation: if a quality team  can run on the Owls, they'll win.

Texas A&M: The Aggies like  to play slow, their tempo is #325 in the nation. That could be dangerous  for a Marquette team that likes to run. In the middle, Marquette could  have an edge, and this could be a game where our bigs could step up. The  pace would favor them and A&M only has one regular player that is  bigger than 6'8". Another danger is that A&M is a good offensive  rebounding team. Without a doubt, the most important player for  Marquette would be Otule.

UNLV: Living up to their  nickname, the Runnin' Rebs play fast. They also play solid defense that  saw them knock off Wisconsin and K-State in the non-conference schedule.  But what have they done lately? Not much. The only team in kenpom's top  70 they've defeated since that win over K-State in December has been  New Mexico twice, by a combined 4 points. And despite playing at a  faster pace than Marquette, they only average 72 points per game. Get  the Rebs running, and Marquette would have a decent chance.

Old Dominion: The Monarchs  aren't very big, and play very, very slow. They are also rated by kenpom  as the best offensive rebounding team in the nation. This is the  prototype for the kind of team that could give Marquette fits. For  Marquette to win, they need to shoot the deep ball. ODU shoots 32.9%  from three while allowing opponents to hit at a 37% clip. If DJO is on  and Marquette can turn it into a game of horse, they can win. If the  game is decided in the trenches, it could be a long day.

9-Seed

UCLA: The Bruins are a big  team, but are also young. The surprising key might be 6'10" freshman  center Joshua Smith. He is often in foul trouble, but has only fouled  out three times, and UCLA lost all three of those games. I think our own  freshman center, Davante Gardner, would be asked to play a big role  offensively trying to pressure Smith into fouls that could allow  Marquette to exploit the interior.

George Mason: How good are the  Patriots, really? They have only played two games against kenpom top 50  opposition, going 1-1 against #48 Old Dominion. This certainly isn't the  Final Four team. In 2006, GMU had 5 double-digit scorers, this year  they have 3. This year is a much better team from three, however,  shooting 39.7% as opposed to 35.6% in 2006. That team was more solid  all-around. This year's team will succeed if they can hit the deep ball.  I think the key is to outrun them and limit their three-point  opportunities, which has been a problem for Marquette at times this  year.

Florida State: How do you  explain a team that can lose to Auburn, then a week later beat then-#1  Duke? The 'Noles are ridiculously deep, 10 players average 10+ minutes,  and long, 6 of those players are 6'8" or bigger. They also play a great  brand of defense, rated #5 by kenpom. This would be a classic offense  versus defense struggle. The key may be for Marquette to slow it down,  something we rarely do. FSU likes to play fast and is only 2-6 in games  in which they score 62 points or less.

8-Seed

Tennessee: Which Volunteers  will show up? The ones that beat Pitt on the road, or the ones that lost  to Mississippi State at home? It's tough to tell how exactly to beat  Pearl's team. They have won and lost seemingly every type of game. One  constant is that if you slow Scotty Hopson, you can beat them. The Vols  have lost the past 6 games when Hopson scored 13 or fewer points.

7-Seed

Butler: The Bulldogs are led by  Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack, two of the stars of last year's NCAA  runners-up team. So what is the difference between that team and this  one? Quite simply, defense. Last year Butler was ranked 5th by kenpom in  defense, this year they languish at 75th. Winning this game for  Marquette is simple. Keep Butler off the offensive boards, something  they struggle at, and stay in attack mode. They want to play slow, so up  the tempo. Butler is 1-5 when their opponent scores 76+ points.

Michigan: Michigan was 3-8 from  December 28 through February 3, including a 6-game losing streak. Since  then they haven't beaten a single team currently in the RPI top 50, yet  at a projected 10-seed, they're nearly a lock to make the tourney. If  that doesn't say something about how soft the bubble is, I don't know  what would. I would love to see the Wolverines in the first round.  Marquette is bigger, faster, and better on the offensive boards.  Michigan does protect the ball well, but that's about all they really do  well. As long as Marquette didn't get sucked into their slow-down  style, I think we would hammer Michigan.

Illinois: The Illini have an  identical conference record and overall record as Michigan, yet is a  much scarier team. They have a lot of experience, including an excellent  senior point guard in McCamey and two quality senior bigs in Davis and  Tisdale. And speaking of big, Illinois is the tallest team in all of  college basketball. They also play pretty good defense. There are a lot  of things to like about this team, but some reasons for optimism. They  went 6-9 in their last 15 games. And since the start of December, they  are 1-5 against kenpom top 30 teams, with their only win at home over  Wisconsin. Still, they'd be a tough team for Marquette to match up with.  I'd rather avoid the Illini.

6-Seed

Georgia: I'm just not sold on  this team. They beat Kentucky, and that's about it. Not very good  offense, average defense, though to their credit, they don't have a bad  loss; their worst is to bubble team Alabama. Still, this team turns the  ball over far too often, especially for a team that plays a lot of  three-guard sets. I'd be very happy to see them across the bracket from  us.

Richmond: It's tough to get a  good read on Spiders. They upset Purdue, but that's the only kenpom  top-50 win they have. They are long, but one of the worst teams in the  field on the offensive glass. The biggest danger is that they are a  great three-point shooting team (40.6%) and also defend the three well.  This game would be about tempo. If it becomes a game of H-O-R-S-E, we  would be hard pressed to keep up. If we can get out and run with our  athleticism, we'll leave them in the dust. Not my favorite team to match  up with.

St. Mary's: The Gaels have lost  3 of 5, but get a chance to build momentum with a surprising  non-conference home game against Weber State on Friday. I guess that's  the advantage of playing an early conference tournament. St. Mary's is a  great offensive team and simply lights it up from the field. But they  aren't very good defensively, and when they do miss, are mediocre on the  offensive boards. That's not surprising, as they don't have much  length. As long as Marquette limited second-chance points, they would  more than likely handle the Gaels.

So there you go, the 18 teams that Marquette is most likely to match up  with once the brackets come down on Selection Sunday. For a quick  review, how about a look at teams that are good match-ups, bad  match-ups, and toss-ups...

Good Match-ups: Arizona, Xavier, Temple, UNLV, Butler, Michigan, Georgia, St. Mary's

Bad Match-ups: Kansas State, Texas A&M, Old Dominion, Florida State, Illinois

Toss-ups: Kentucky, UCLA, George Mason, Tennessee, Richmond

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