Dance Card has us out right now...first four out

[ChicosBailBonds]

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[Lennys Tap]

Who is @Belmont and what did they do to warrant a 97+% chance of getting in?

[NYWarrior]

Who is @Belmont and what did they do to warrant a 97+% chance of getting in?

they won their conference tourney. 

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/24906/looking-for-cinderella-check-out-belmont

[BM1090]

This is one of the less reliable services. It is all computers and no objectivity. It has Cleveland State as safely in, which should show how big of an outlier this site is.

33 of the 36 newly updated brackets shown on Bracket Matrix have Marquette in

[ChicosBailBonds]

This is one of the less reliable services. It is all computers and no objectivity. It has Cleveland State as safely in, which should show how big of an outlier this site is.

33 of the 36 newly updated brackets shown on Bracket Matrix have Marquette in

Correct, it's all data driven.

In terms of reliability..."The version of the Dance Card being used to obtain the current ranking correctly predicted 33 of the 34 available at-large slots in 2010, and 32 of the 34 at-large slots in 2009, for an overall accuracy of 95.6% for these two years."

They were as reliable as Lunardi was last year...missed one.

[Tugg Speedman]

Correct, it's all data driven.

In terms of reliability..."The version of the Dance Card being used to obtain the current ranking correctly predicted 33 of the 34 available at-large slots in 2010, and 32 of the 34 at-large slots in 2009, for an overall accuracy of 95.6% for these two years."

They were as reliable as Lunardi was last year...missed one.

These accuracy ratios are based on the last list done right before the selection show.

We beat Prov tomorrow and they move us to the "last four in" and they are correct and everyone is happy.

[79Warrior]

If we lose tomorrow I think it is very safe to say we are out.

[Lennys Tap]

they won their conference tourney. 

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/24906/looking-for-cinderella-check-out-belmont

So there's only a 97% chance they'll get in AFTER winning the automatic bid? That's cold.

[Tugg Speedman]

If we lose tomorrow I think it is very safe to say we are out.

Not safe to say but we will be a solid bubble team.

[madtownwarrior]

Chicos - did you sit up all night hitting refresh on every bracket projection site until you found the first one that had MU out?

Of course, you could have been multi-tasking while you were paying homage to your Tom crean shrine...

[NavinRJohnson]

So there's only a 97% chance they'll get in AFTER winning the automatic bid? That's cold.

That's what i was thinking. Leaving 3% wiggle room in the event of a plane crash, or what?

[leever]

3% probability that Chico's will file an appeal stating that II,II is actually more deserving of the spot.

[ChicosBailBonds]

So there's only a 97% chance they'll get in AFTER winning the automatic bid? That's cold.

More than likely a typo...just like Lunardi's typo today that had Missouri out of the tournament.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Chicos - did you sit up all night hitting refresh on every bracket projection site until you found the first one that had MU out?

Actually, Madtown...for the last month we've been reporting each week on Bracket Project and Dance Card on Cracked Sidewalks.  The report is delivered to me each week.

It's not the first one that has MU out, in fact several have been posted in the last two days but apparently you only felt the need to send your message to me.  Let me help you with some links so you can make sure to address the others...I'm always happy to help.

Here you go:

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=25279.0

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=25268.0

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=25208.msg280955#msg280955

[ATWizJr]

If I am reading correctly, the Bracket Matrix has us in on 77/81 brackets and we are 39 on the S curve.  A 10 seed.

[TallTitan34]

If we lose tomorrow I think it is very safe to say we are out.

Disagree.  We'd still have a shot.

[muguru]

Actually, Madtown...for the last month we've been reporting each week on Bracket Project and Dance Card on Cracked Sidewalks.  The report is delivered to me each week.

It's not the first one that has MU out, in fact several have been posted in the last two days but apparently you only felt the need to send your message to me.  Let me help you with some links so you can make sure to address the others...I'm always happy to help.

Here you go:

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=25279.0

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=25268.0

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=25208.msg280955#msg280955

Except look at dance card, it's garbage.....Look at the teams he has in, and NONE of them are even close to getting in.... Cleveland State, California, USC, VCU(out unless they win tonight for the auto bid)  & CSU(they are closer than the other 3).

[ZiggysFryBoy]

More than likely a typo...just like Lunardi's typo today that had Missouri out of the tournament.

cuz the 9 & the 7 are close to the 1 and the 0 and the 0?   

[ChicosBailBonds]

If I am reading correctly, the Bracket Matrix has us in on 77/81 brackets and we are 39 on the S curve.  A 10 seed.

Correct...but the downside is that 25 of those brackets haven't been updated since we got clobbered by Seton Hall.  So it's a bit skewed right now until all the data is in.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Except look at dance card, it's garbage.....Look at the teams he has in, and NONE of them are even close to getting in.... Cleveland State, California, USC, VCU(out unless they win tonight for the auto bid)  & CSU(they are closer than the other 3).

None are even close to getting in?  Can you describe what close to getting in means?  Lunardi has USC as one of his first four out...that isn't close to getting in? 

It might be garbage, this stuff changes...they got one wrong last year...so did Lunardi.  Go figure.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Here is one of the authors of that forum's response on Belmont

"Yep – although we’ve generally left the at-large probabilities posted just in case someone want to know what that team’s chances would have been without the automatic bid.

That said, I was just considering changing that this morning – but I haven’t gotten around to adjusting my programming code.    "

[oldwarrior81]

how about USC being in?

18-13; with 6 losses to teams outside the RPI top 100, and 3 of those coming to teams outside the top 200.  That loss to TCU (1-15 in MWC) really stings.

[ChicosBailBonds]

how about USC being in?

18-13; with 6 losses to teams outside the RPI top 100, and 3 of those coming to teams outside the top 200.  That loss to TCU (1-15 in MWC) really stings.

I wonder why Lunardi thinks highly enough of them to be the first out not to make it....one would think they wouldn't even get a mention.  Go figure.   

[NickelDimer]

Disagree.  We'd still have a shot.

Yep, especially depending how other conference tourney's went.  But let's hope we don't even have to discuss this scenario after tomorrow night.

[JWags85]

If we miss out, and both Michigan and MSU (barring a run to the BTT final or something) get in, as well as a garbage Cal team with a similar record but no good wins in a mediocre conference, I would eat my hat.