Want a Tourney Dark Horse? Here are 5 (article from MSNBC)

[SoCalwarrior]

Out of this guys five dark horses, four are from the BE, including Marquette.


Opinion: Want tourney dark horse? Here are five
Perhaps one of these lower seeded teams will make Final Four run
By Ken Davis
Updated: 7:36 p.m. PT March 12, 2007

Everyone loves a good surprise.

That's the magnet that pulls us back to the NCAA Tournament every year. It's the most unpredictable championship event in American sports. We love the underdog and, in the field of 65, underdogs have their day all the time.

The top question this year — and quite frankly it is getting a little old — is based on the biggest surprise from last year. Who will be this year's George Mason? We all know the popular answer is Winthrop. So let's move on.

If you are filling out your bracket for the office pool by picking every higher seed over every lower seed — and ending up with four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four — then you haven't been paying attention. That's not how this thing works.

The top seeds do reach the Final Four almost 41 percent of the time, but upsets are the best part of March Madness. If you can identify the teams that will pull the biggest upsets, you may want to become a bracketologist. Then again, you might want to have an actual life.

In that case, let's give the process a softer touch and call it Searching For Cinderella.

The popularity of the tournament reached new heights in the 1980's when three of the greatest championship stories were scripted. Jim Valvano got it started in 1983 with the miraculous run by North Carolina State that ended with Jimmy V looking for someone to hug after the Wolfpack shocked Houston.

Two years later, Villanova played the perfect game and shocked Patrick Ewing's Georgetown team in Lexington. And in 1988, Danny Manning and the Miracles recovered from a 12-8 start as Kansas reached the Final Four in Kansas City and upset Oklahoma to win the national championship.

Those title runs were memorable because of the odds against those teams. North Carolina State and Kansas were No. 6 seeds and Villanova was a No. 8 seed. Those are the three lowest seeds ever to win the NCAA Tournament, a true testament to the importance of earning a high seed. George Mason's run last year was remarkable because the Patriots were a No. 11 seed, the lowest ever to reach the Final Four. LSU also got that far as a No. 11 in 1986.

This year's field seems true to form, with the primary title contenders sitting no lower than the top four lines. But who knows? Something special may be brewing. So we have selected five possible dark horses — one from each region and one bonus pick.

The qualifications? Each team must be a No. 6 seed or lower — and capable of winning it all. Here they are:

Arizona (No. 8, Midwest, 20-10, Pac-10 at-large): The Wildcats were underachievers this season — and that's putting it nicely. Arizona has the offensive firepower to compete with any team in the field. But problems with focus, discipline and defense made Arizona an ordinary team this season. Sophomore forward Marcus Williams was an All-Pac-10 selection and forward Chase Budinger is one of the top freshmen in the nation. The Wildcats have good wins against UNLV, Memphis, Stanford and Oregon, but lost to the Ducks by 19 in the quarterfinals of the Pac-10 Tournament. Coach Lute Olson has brought a team to the tournament 23 consecutive seasons. Last year the Wildcats lost to Villanova in the second round. There's no indication that Arizona is ready to turn the season around. It's entirely possible the Wildcats could lose their first round game to No. 9 seed Purdue. But Olson orchestrated one of the tournament's most memorable runs in 1997 when the Wildcats defeated three No. 1 seeds on the way to the national championship. Could he do it again?

Villanova (No. 9, West, 22-10, Big East at-large): The selection committee didn't show much respect for the Big East after giving Georgetown the No. 2 seed in the East. Villanova is a dangerous team, although certainly not as good as the team that lost to Florida in a regional final last season. The Wildcats were 10-8 in conference play. Curtis Sumpter is going out in style as a senior and he joins classmates Will Sheridan and Mike Nardi to form the nucleus of this squad. But freshman Scottie Reynolds is the big threat. Reynolds has been an explosive scorer in the final half of the season, including a 40-point performance at UConn's Gampel Pavilion that broke the opponent scoring record. Nardi was sidelined during the Big East Tournament with an injured left ankle, but coach Jay Wright expects Nardi to be healthy for Villanova's first-round game against Kentucky. The winner gets No. 1 Kansas in the second round and that's a chance to become a tournament spoiler. Villanova beat Georgetown, Louisville, Texas and Notre Dame during the regular season.

Marquette (No. 8, East, 24-9, Big East at-large): The Golden Eagles played well at the start of the season and, during an eight-game winning streak from January to early February, established themselves as a contender in the Big East. Marquette flirted with a top-four seed during that time, but then lost five of its last eight. Guard Jerel McNeal, the Big East defensive player of the year, missed the conference tournament with an injured thumb but should return. He is an important part of a guard rotation that includes Dominic James and Wesley Matthews. James has a quick release on his shot and averages almost five assists. Watch for 6-10 forward Ousmane Barro. Coach Tom Crean has taken Marquette to the Final Four (2003) so he knows what it takes to orchestrate a deep run. He faces an emotional tournament opener against No. 9 Michigan State. The Spartans are coached by his mentor, Tom Izzo. It should be one of the best opening games of the tournament.

Louisville (No. 6, South, 23-9, Big East at-large): The Cardinals are one of the hottest teams going into the tournament and are coached by Rick Pitino, one of the most successful postseason coaches of all time. Some think Louisville has been overrated, while others see a team hitting its stride at the right time. Either way, this is a young Louisville team that should be awesome next season. Injuries and youth held Pitino back early in the season. Eight of  Louisville's 11 scholarship players are freshmen or sophomores. The improved play of freshman big man Derrick Caracter was instrumental in a six-game winning streak heading into the Big East Tournament. Louisville lost to Pittsburgh in the Big East semifinals. Freshman guard Edgar Sosa and sophomore forward Terrence Williams have been scoring in double figures. Williams also has emerged as a team leader. Louisville has a tough opener against No. 11 Stanford, but the game will be in nearby Lexington's Rupp Arena — where Pitino used to work as coach of the Kentucky Wildcats. That should make for an interesting atmosphere.

Notre Dame (No. 6, Midwest, 24-7, Big East at-large): This is the bonus selection. The Fighting Irish are back in the tournament for the first time since 2003. They didn't get much respect from the selection committee, receiving a No. 6 seed and matched against No. 11 Winthrop (mentioned earlier in this piece as this year's George Mason). In other words, Notre Dame may be headed home after one game. Then again, the Irish could go on a roll if they clear that first hurdle. The Irish play a style that's hard to adjust to and hard to defend. With four players in double figures, they average 81. 5 points a game. Coach Mike Brey was named Big East coach of the year after leading the Irish to an 11-5 conference record. Notre Dame beat Alabama, Louisville, West Virginia and Marquette during the regular season. The Irish can shoot the ball, hitting 46.3 percent from the field and 39.7 from three-point range. Colin Falls is the Big East's career three-point leader and guard Russell Carter is having a terrific senior year.

© 2007 MSNBC InteractiveKen Davis is a frequent contributor to MSNBC.com and freelance writer based in Hartford, Conn.
URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17585832/page/2/

© 2007 MSNBC.com

[MURFC]

No coincidence that four of the five "lower seeded teams" are from the Big East.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

I think Louisville is definitely a team to watch.

[AlumKCof93]

I think ND is a tough out.  They are very good offensively with Falls and Carter from deep and with Harongody inside they have a presence.  That Tory Jackson can really create and drive so even if the outside shots aren't falling they can get it in.  My only question about them is how good their defense is.  From the BE, I like Gtowns and NDs chances of making a run more than anyone else.  Except for MU, of course.

[MUCHI814]

Not that there is ever an easy trip to the Final Four or Elite 8, but Georgetown doesnt have that tough of a road.  Significantly easier than UNC, the 1 seed, if you ask me.  They would have to be your pick from the Big East, not to mention that they're playing pretty great ball right now.

[AlumKCof93]

I agree.  I don't see how G-town doesn't get to the elite 8.  UNC has a very tough road in comparison.

[WashDCWarrior]

I think Louisville is definitely a team to watch.

I think their 2nd round game against Texas A&M will be one of the best in this year's tournament.

[BM1090]

winner of the texas a&m-Louisville game is going to the final four. Mark it down

[Final Four or Bust]

I think ND is a tough out.

Yes, but problem is they are playing Winthrop first, which will give them fits.  I agree about G-Town's road, and I actually have Louisville in my final four.