By The Numbers: What are Close Losses?

[krocheck]

Last season I set out to track Free Throws, specifically looking at MU making more than the opponent attempts. (http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=18618.0)

This year I've taken a much broader approach to statistical analysis.  Taking over 15 different parameters of each game into account, I've been able to create a statistical ratio, a statistical score card to see how the games broke down beyond points on the board.  Ultimately PTS and FGs are the most important, so there is a weight in the score.  In the process, I've found that in our 8 losses, totaling 36 points (average of 4.5 ppl), some losses were close and others, it would seem, we were lucky to come out with a close score.

So, halfway through the Big East season and over two-thirds through the regular season ... here's where we're at.

Worst Loss: U Conn

Take a look at the box score and you will see that we were matched or beat in everything (fast break points and bench points are not scored).  Save us having an extra block and a better 3 Pt percentage, there is no conceivable reason we would have won this game.  Statistically, under my weighted system, they beat us 4 - 22 at a 0.18 statistical ratio (1 is a tie).

Next Worse Loss: Duke
8 - 24 / 0.33

Closest Loss: Wisconsin

This is really interesting game because the statistical score was 15 - 16 at a 0.94 ratio, a near tie.  Take, for instance, that the Badgers scored more buckets than us, however, we were more efficient with the shots we did take.  MU: 22-46 (47.7%), WIS: 26-47 (45.6 %).  MU lost the 3 pt battle, but won at the charity stripe.  The rest of the box score was roughly split 50/50 with a point or two extra going to the Badgers.  This 5 point loss was closer than the 5 other losses of 5 points or less.

2nd Closest Loss: Vanderbilt
12 - 18 / 0.67

Best Win: DePaul (duh!)
31 - 1 / 31.00

2nd Best Win: Mississippi Valley St.
27 - 2 / 13.50

2nd Best BE Win: Notre Dame
27 - 5 / 5.40

Closest Win: Syracuse

Take the Wisconsin game and turn the tables.  A 14 - 13 / 1.08 score.  The scoreboard was key, but the story of MU's edge was not in FGs, but at the line.  MU: 24-33 (72.7%), SYR: 8-14 (57.1%).  Both teams going 6 - 13 from 3 Pt land helped keep this one close.  MU had an edge in the Rebounds (O&D), Turnover, and Personal Foul categories with Syracuse taking Assists, Steals, and Blocks.  It was a close win statistically and on the scoreboard.

2nd Closest Win: South Dakota
20 - 12 / 1.67

MU vs. BE Opponents

Stat	MU Tot	Opp Tot	MU Avg	Opp Avg	Game W/L
Pts	695	646	77.22	71.78	5-4
FG	264-555	267-553	47.6%	48.3%	4-5 (%); 4-5 (FGM)
3P	69-163	66-182	42.3%	36.3%	5-3-1 (%); 3-3-3 (3PM)
FT	174-248	123-176	70.2%	69.9%	6-3 (%); 7-2 (FTM)
REB	289	284	32.11	31.56	5-4
OREB	108	91	12.00	10.11	6-3
AST	147	153	16.33	17.00	4-5
STL	52	53	5.78	5.89	3-5-1
BLK	25	32	2.78	3.56	4-5
TO	92	117	10.22	13.00	5-2-2
PF	150	186	16.67	20.67	6-2-1
P10+	33	33	3.67	3.67	2-3-4
ATR			1.60	1.31	5-4
PITP	262	278	29.11	30.89	3-5-1
POTO	140	95	15.56	10.56	5-3-1
SCP	117	109	13.00	12.11	5-3-1
FBP	102	86	11.33	9.56	6-3
BP	92	134	10.22	14.89	3-6

Legend:

3P	3-Point Field Goals
AST	Assists
ATR	Assist to Turnover Ratio
BLK	Blocks
BP	Bench Points
FBP	Fast Break Points
FG	Field Goals
FT	Free Throws
OREB	Offensive Rebounds
P10+	Number of Players Scoring 10+ Points
PF	Personal Fouls
PITP	Points in the Paint
POTO	Point off Turnovers
PTS	Points
REB	Rebounds
SCP	Second (2nd) Chance Points
STL	Steals
TO	Turnovers

As with any stat, this is not a perfect science, but its fun more me to look beyond the score to find the strengths and weaknesses of MU.  When applied to last season the Villanova and ND close home losses scored as close wins.

Enjoy!

Keith

[77ncaachamps]

Compelling analysis of stats that suggest TO battle and PF/FT battles usually favor MU.

Great job!

[Dr. Blackheart]

Thanks Keith...bench points really stand out...we lost our bench somewhere along the line.  Buzz has really shortened his bench and our subs are not very sure in BE play. 

One interesting box score to fold in may be largest leads and their time.  Having watched the UCONN and Wisky games, I never would have come to the same conclusions.  The Wisky game never was close, yet the UCONN game was--mainly because we didn't lead late in one and the other we did. 

Not that I am a glutton for punishment, but where did the Lville net out?

Thanks

[mileskishnish72]

Score to "fold" in - come on, Black, don't be cruel.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Score to "fold" in - come on, Black, don't be cruel.

My therapy has been going better since the SU game...I am more ready today to face the inner demons   

[bamamarquettefan]

Great stuff.  The two that really surprise me are that we have lost the steal battle in most games but won the turnover battle in most games.  Would have expected the reverse.

I do get assists.  Even though we are among the assist leaders in the country and seem to whip it around very well, I guess with the weaknesses in our defense and need to double and leave someone open that makes sense.  I guess every time Buycks or DJO drive to the hoop that's a bucket but not an assist.

But I think of us as a team that can get a little over aggressive and whip a pass out of bounds and has a stud playing out of position at point guard, so I think of us as high on turnovers, but the ones that go out of bounds.  I think of us as a team that turns up the heat and goes for steals and turns them into baskets, but the numbers don't quite bear that out.

[krocheck]

Thanks Keith...bench points really stand out...we lost our bench somewhere along the line.  Buzz has really shortened his bench and our subs are not very sure in BE play. 

One interesting box score to fold in may be largest leads and their time.  Having watched the UCONN and Wisky games, I never would have come to the same conclusions.  The Wisky game never was close, yet the UCONN game was--mainly because we didn't lead late in one and the other we did. 

Not that I am a glutton for punishment, but where did the Lville net out?

Thanks

Louisville came out as the 4th worst loss with 10 - 21 / 0.48

I had looked into using the largest leads, but I didn't find a way to properly score it under this system.  I have other things that I've 'made up'.  I still have my columns to track the free throws like I did last year (which are not scored).  I might pull the P10+ stat, and not because MU is poor at it.  I want to build in something related to Rankings, but unsure of that as well.

With the WI and UConn games ... I watched them as well.  The stat sheet tells a different story at face value, however, I actually think the scoring properly snapshots the momentum of the game at the final buzzer (while also capturing the essence of the game).  Imagine if both of those games were played an additional minute or two.  The WI game we had the momentum to potentially close the gap more and even take the game ... time ran out.  The UConn game would probably be just as ugly as it was for the last few minutes ... no baskets, no momentum on MU's side.

There is quite a bit different between fighting through a game to stay alive and letting the wheels fall off in the last quarter.  A good effort will generally shine through a loss in the stats ... a poor effort (whether for part or whole) will skew the stats every time.

Keith