Deepest MU team in......well you tell me

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I may be wrong as I haven't looked into historical production of high, medium and low contributors, but isn't averaging 8-10 points a pretty high expectation?  I want to say that 8-10 would be a full year starter playing a majority of the minutes per game.

[NersEllenson]

I may be wrong as I haven't looked into historical production of high, medium and low contributors, but isn't averaging 8-10 points a pretty high expectation?  I want to say that 8-10 would be a full year starter playing a majority of the minutes per game.

You make a good point - 8-10ppg is a relatively high expectation, I guess - yet not too high for a player ranked liked Vander - who is pretty much a consensus 5-star player.  For context, I believe Lazar averaged about 7ppg as a freshman - and Zar wasn't rated nearly as high as Vander..but..Zar did get decent minutes as a freshman..and didn't have nearly the depth to compete with, that Vander will. 

What do others think as far as production you would expect from Vander this year?

[brewcity77]

What do others think as far as production you would expect from Vander this year?

I think at this point it's incredibly difficult to say, largely because of playing time. I think that we can safely assume DJO will start at one of the guard positions. If Buzz runs two guards, my guess is Cadougan will get a good chunk of time because he's a natural point. Do we run a standard 2-guard set? If so, competing with Buycks for playing time, Blue could end up averaging only around 5-10 mpg. If he scored 8-10 ppg with that kind of PT, suffice to say we'd all be screaming bloody murder for him to start.

I basically have two different expectation levels for Blue. My first is that he manages to solidify himself as a solid bench option, and possible spot starter. He averages 20-25 mpg and gets around 9 ppg, leaving us all salivating over his future potential. But that's my high expectation. My second is that he gets some time, but his freshman status and inability to hold on to the ball early on limits him to 5-10 ppg, and he ends up averaging around 4-6 ppg. While we'd probably be disappointed, it's a more realistic expecation, and if this team is as deep as it looks on paper, really wouldn't be a bad production line from a kid who could be behind a trio of more experienced guards.

[bilsu]

You make a good point - 8-10ppg is a relatively high expectation, I guess - yet not too high for a player ranked liked Vander - who is pretty much a consensus 5-star player.  For context, I believe Lazar averaged about 7ppg as a freshman - and Zar wasn't rated nearly as high as Vander..but..Zar did get decent minutes as a freshman..and didn't have nearly the depth to compete with, that Vander will. 

What do others think as far as production you would expect from Vander this year?

I looked at the top scorers in the Big East last year. The list cutoff at 10.8 points. I only recognized two players on the list as being freshmen, Lance Stephenson averaged 12.3 points and Brooks (Providence) averaged 14.2. I am not 100% sure he was a freshmen. There may be some one else on the list that was a freshmen I did not recognize. The point here there are not many freshmen that score a lot in the Big East. * points would be a lot to get out of Blue, especially since his strenght is defense and not offense. MU offense will also not run through him.

[GGGG]

Furthermore, only three MU players averaged 10+ ppg last year.

Lazar 18.0, JB at 14.7, and DJO at 13.0.  Of those three, DJO had the least amount of minutes per game at 29.7.

I seriously doubt that Vander is going to get around 30 mpg and average 10 ppg.  My guess is around 12-15 mpg and about 6 ppg.  Now if he starts off well, that may go up.  However if he struggles he may end up being the fifth guard on this team and have trouble getting double didgit minutes during BE season.

[NersEllenson]

I looked at the top scorers in the Big East last year. The list cutoff at 10.8 points. I only recognized two players on the list as being freshmen, Lance Stephenson averaged 12.3 points and Brooks (Providence) averaged 14.2. I am not 100% sure he was a freshmen. There may be some one else on the list that was a freshmen I did not recognize. The point here there are not many freshmen that score a lot in the Big East. * points would be a lot to get out of Blue, especially since his strenght is defense and not offense. MU offense will also not run through him.

Good research/find/analysis - thanks.  Think this is helpful for tempering people's expectations of Blue - I felt mine were fairly modest at 8-10ppg considering all of the hype..but now we know statistically how tough it is to contribute alot as a freshman in the Big East...

[LAMUfan]

Even if Vander doesn't score a lot he'll get plenty of PT if he can play solid D and rebound over smaller guards.  Put him on the floor with DJO and as a team we will be able to score just fine.

[bma725]

You make a good point - 8-10ppg is a relatively high expectation, I guess - yet not too high for a player ranked liked Vander - who is pretty much a consensus 5-star player. 

You might want to look at what other players with his sort of rating have done throughout the the years before going with that thought.  Vander's consensus ranking is #48, compare that to other players with the same rank over the last decade.

2009: Kahwi Leonard - San Diego State...12.7 PPG in 31 MPG
2008: Kenny Frease - Xavier....5.4 PPG in 14 MPG
2007: Scoop Jardine - Syracuse...5.5 PPG in 19 MPG
2006: Tom Herzog - Michigan State...redshirted as a freshman
2005: Vernon Goodridge - Miss State...1.8 PPG in 7 MPG, only played in 23 games
2004: Al Horford - Florida....5.6 PPG in 22 MPG
2003: Shagari Alleyne - Kentucky... 0.8PPG in 3 MPG, only played in 18 games
2002: Deron Williams - Illinois...6.3 PPG in 27 MPG
2001: Charles Frederick - Washington...0.8PPG in 5MPG, only played in 6 games due to also playing football
2000: Eddie Starks - Iona...5.5 PG in 16 MPG

Only one player out of 10 scored in double figures, and he was playing at San Diego State, a decidedly lower level of competition.  In general, the production for players of that level at the high major level seems to be 5-6 PPG....and that's not taking into account the depth that is available and may hinder playing time at MU.

[GGGG]

You might want to look at what other players with his sort of rating have done throughout the the years before going with that thought.  Vander's consensus ranking is #48, compare that to other players with the same rank over the last decade.

2002: Deron Williams - Illinois...6.3 PPG in 27 MPG.

I wonder if anyone back then seriously thought that Williams was going to be an All-Star NBA guard.  He may have actually been labelled a disappointment after his freshman year.

[LAMUfan]

Al Horford as well

[NersEllenson]

You might want to look at what other players with his sort of rating have done throughout the the years before going with that thought.  Vander's consensus ranking is #48, compare that to other players with the same rank over the last decade.

2009: Kahwi Leonard - San Diego State...12.7 PPG in 31 MPG
2008: Kenny Frease - Xavier....5.4 PPG in 14 MPG
2007: Scoop Jardine - Syracuse...5.5 PPG in 19 MPG
2006: Tom Herzog - Michigan State...redshirted as a freshman
2005: Vernon Goodridge - Miss State...1.8 PPG in 7 MPG, only played in 23 games
2004: Al Horford - Florida....5.6 PPG in 22 MPG
2003: Shagari Alleyne - Kentucky... 0.8PPG in 3 MPG, only played in 18 games
2002: Deron Williams - Illinois...6.3 PPG in 27 MPG
2001: Charles Frederick - Washington...0.8PPG in 5MPG, only played in 6 games due to also playing football
2000: Eddie Starks - Iona...5.5 PG in 16 MPG

Only one player out of 10 scored in double figures, and he was playing at San Diego State, a decidedly lower level of competition.  In general, the production for players of that level at the high major level seems to be 5-6 PPG....and that's not taking into account the depth that is available and may hinder playing time at MU.

Good stuff indeed..though as we debated in a different thread..it is very peculiar that 2 services used to assemble his consensus rank have him ranked 90th and unranked...whereas the other 4 sources have him anywhere from 22-34...either way..glad this information and comparison analysis is coming out so fans expectations aren't too high considering all of the hype around Vander.

[MerrittsMustache]

Furthermore, only three MU players averaged 10+ ppg last year.

Lazar 18.0, JB at 14.7, and DJO at 13.0.  Of those three, DJO had the least amount of minutes per game at 29.7.

I seriously doubt that Vander is going to get around 30 mpg and average 10 ppg.  My guess is around 12-15 mpg and about 6 ppg.  Now if he starts off well, that may go up.  However if he struggles he may end up being the fifth guard on this team and have trouble getting double didgit minutes during BE season.

If Jones and Blue combine for 30mpg and 10ppg, I'd be thrilled.

My guess is...
Butler/DJO: 32ppg
Buycks: 10-12ppg
Crowder/Fulce: 8-10ppg
Otule/EWill: 6-8ppg
Blue/Jones: 6-8ppg
Cadougan/Smith: 6-8ppg
Others: 0-2ppg

That comes out to 68-78ppg.

I hope I'm wrong, but I definitely agree with the posters who think that people need to temper their expectations for Blue. He's eventually going to be an excellent player for MU, but a majority of freshmen need some time to adjust before they're ready to become starters/key contributors.

[Blackhat]

Reggie Smith is going to get a lot of pt this year, imo.   He may have the best freshman year.

Crowder as Juco POY should show good too.

[LAZER]

If Jones and Blue combine for 30mpg and 10ppg, I'd be thrilled.

My guess is...
Butler/DJO: 32ppg
Buycks: 10-12ppg
Crowder/Fulce: 8-10ppg
Otule/EWill: 6-8ppg
Blue/Jones: 6-8ppg
Cadougan/Smith: 6-8ppg
Others: 0-2ppg

That comes out to 68-78ppg.

I hope I'm wrong, but I definitely agree with the posters who think that people need to temper their expectations for Blue. He's eventually going to be an excellent player for MU, but a majority of freshmen need some time to adjust before they're ready to become starters/key contributors.

While I agree with you that some need to temper expectations with Blue and Jones, I'll be very pretty dissappointed if they combine for 7pts a game.  These are two of our best recruits in years.

[bma725]

While I agree with you that some need to temper expectations with Blue and Jones, I'll be very pretty dissappointed if they combine for 7pts a game.  These are two of our best recruits in years.

Bit of an overstatement there.  Blue is #48 in the consensus rankings, Jones is #74.  Last year, Cadougan was #47, Erik Williams was #67 and Jeronne Maymon was #73.  If Junior doesn't get injured that trio probably averages around 9-10 PPG, which wouldn't exactly be out of line with what was suggested for Blue/Jones.

[LAZER]

Bit of an overstatement there.  Blue is #48 in the consensus rankings, Jones is #74.  Last year, Cadougan was #47, Erik Williams was #67 and Jeronne Maymon was #73.  If Junior doesn't get injured that trio probably averages around 9-10 PPG, which wouldn't exactly be out of line with what was suggested for Blue/Jones.

I was just going by Scout, ESPN, and Rivals, I don't know what the "consensus rankings" are.  Either way, i'm also making this assesment from the freshman year performances and similarily touted recruits of Diener, Novak, Mason, Amoroso, Matthews, McNeal, James, Hayward, and Maymon.

[ErickJD08]

I would be surprised with Blue or Jones saw significant PT next year (>5min).  I don't expect them playing point or center next year.  So there are three spots on the floor left.  They are competing with JB, DJO, Buycks, Fulce, EWill (who I expect to be the biggest surprise next year), and Jae.  To make PT more scarce for Jones and Blue, I think DJO and JB will average around 35 minute per game.  So that leaves about 50 minutes.  This is a good problem though.

[bma725]

I was just going by Scout, ESPN, and Rivals, I don't know what the "consensus rankings" are.  Either way, i'm also making this assesment from the freshman year performances and similarily touted recruits of Diener, Novak, Mason, Amoroso, Matthews, McNeal, James, Hayward, and Maymon.

Consensus = RSCI, a system that looks at all rankings by the major services and comes up with a composite Top 100.  Draft Express also does one that goes all the way to 150 or so.  Generally far more reliable than any one services ranking.

Any way, the problem with a comparison between this class and the players in other years is that these guys likely won't have the opportunity for playing time that the previous ones did.  The Amigos were starters right away.  Novak only had one guy in front of him as a freshman.  Diener played when there were only 3 other guards on the entire roster, only one of whom played his natural position.  

Conversely, Jones has to compete with Jimmy, Jae, Erik, and Joe to get playing time at the 3.  If he slides over to the 2, then he's got to compete with DJO, Dwight and Vander as well.  Similarly, Vander has to compete with Junior and Reggie at the 1, DJO and Dwight at the 2.  If for some reason we go with a 3 guard offense there will be more time available, but given the glut of forwards on the team that doesn't make much sense.

Problem is the comparison doesn't exactly work because those teams didn't have the depth at the positions that this team will.

Diener didn't start, but he played a ton because there were only 4 guards on the roster.
Novak didn't start, but

[MerrittsMustache]

I was just going by Scout, ESPN, and Rivals, I don't know what the "consensus rankings" are.  Either way, i'm also making this assesment from the freshman year performances and similarily touted recruits of Diener, Novak, Mason, Amoroso, Matthews, McNeal, James, Hayward, and Maymon.

You have to consider who else is on the roster. Replace DJO and Buycks with Joe Chapman and Jared Sichting and there would obviously be a lot more opportunities for Blue and Jones.

[LAZER]

You have to consider who else is on the roster. Replace DJO and Buycks with Joe Chapman and Jared Sichting and there would obviously be a lot more opportunities for Blue and Jones.

Definitely true, but bottomline from all i've heard, read, and seen of these guys is if Blue is averaging 4pts and Jones 3pts i'll be dissappointed for sure.

Now if it's because they can't find the floor on a team that's competing for a Big East championship i'll get over it pretty quickly.

[ErickJD08]

Definitely true, but bottomline from all i've heard, read, and seen of these guys is if Blue is averaging 4pts and Jones 3pts i'll be dissappointed for sure.

Now if it's because they can't find the floor on a team that's competing for a Big East championship i'll get over it pretty quickly.

You gotta put things into perspective.  There are only 200 minutes of floortime typically in a game.  I'll be more disappointed if EWill, Jae, and Buycks do not average 15 minutes a game. 

Here is the break down
JC/Smith - 40mpg
DJO - 35mpg
JB - 35 mpg
These are minutes that I pretty confident about.  so that leaves us with 90 minutes left.  Would you be more or less disappointed with Otule rode the bench?  I want all the talk about his improvements to be real.  I want to see that guy on the floor for about 25 minutes a game.  All things being equal, would you want a 4 star freshmen getting minutes or a 4 star sophmore getting minutes.  You obviously want the sophmore.  What about a senior like Fulce?

Yes, I want the best players playing.  But I would be really disappointed if Otule, EWill, Jae, Buycks, and Fulce can not take the next step as players.  I would be disappointed not only because my team would be worse off but because it would weaken my confidence in Buzz developing players.

[Benny B]

You gotta put things into perspective.  There are only 200 minutes of floortime typically in a game. 

Judging by the last part of 09-10, I could have sworn there was 225 minutes.

[Dawson Rental]

Judging by the last part of 09-10, I could have sworn there was 225 minutes.

POST OF THE WEEK!!!!!

[Dawson Rental]

You gotta put things into perspective.  There are only 200 minutes of floortime typically in a game.  I'll be more disappointed if EWill, Jae, and Buycks do not average 15 minutes a game. 

Here is the break down
JC/Smith - 40mpg
DJO - 35mpg
JB - 35 mpg
These are minutes that I pretty confident about.  so that leaves us with 90 minutes left.  Would you be more or less disappointed with Otule rode the bench?  I want all the talk about his improvements to be real.  I want to see that guy on the floor for about 25 minutes a game.  All things being equal, would you want a 4 star freshmen getting minutes or a 4 star sophmore getting minutes.  You obviously want the sophmore.  What about a senior like Fulce?

Yes, I want the best players playing.  But I would be really disappointed if Otule, EWill, Jae, Buycks, and Fulce can not take the next step as players.  I would be disappointed not only because my team would be worse off but because it would weaken my confidence in Buzz developing players.

Your point guard minutes break down ain't gonna happen.  Don't be fooled by height, Blue or Buycks will be going in at the point before Smith.  Until recently, Smith was excelling in high school at the SG spot despite his height because of his amazing athleticism.  He's still learning to play the point.  IMO he's going to need every bit as much of seasoning as Gardner will his freshman year. I think that next year his only opportunity to play meaningful minutes will be as a defensive stopper in certain matchups.

I expect that Cadugan will win a close battle with Blue for the starting PG position in the preseason with Blue coming on stronger and getting more minutes as the year goes on.

I expect that we've seen the best from Fulce.  I see him losing minutes to Otule, EWill, and Jones, as Crowder and Otule replace Lazar's minutes.