Marquette has 8-team cushion for bid – UNTIL tourney upsets start

[bamamarquettefan]

Two of Marquette’s projected fellow 10-seeds (Florida and Virginia Tech) lost this weekend, meaning Marquette could have an 8-team cushion for a tourney bid today.  Below are my top 21 bubble teams based on Lunardi’s Bracket and Last In/Out.  If there were no surprise tourney upsets that gave a conference and extra tourney spot, then the top 13 teams on this list would make the list (if Lunardi is right). 

Every time a surprise team does win one of the 13 conference tourneys in question to add a team, you would eliminate a spot starting with the 13th team on this list.  So if Butler doesn’t win the Horizon, then Mississippi State at #13 below would lose their spot, etc.  The conferences in question are listed below the list. This is based on me interpreting Lunardi’s projections from Friday, but I’ve noted the games since then in parenthesis since Notre Dame and Mississippi have likely replaced UConn and Louisville this weekend.  However, all four 9-seeds just in front of Marquette won, which is fine with me because I don’t want to play a No. 1 seed in the 2nd round.  With the losses by the other 10-seeds, Tuesday’s game could feature two projected 10-seeds in Marquette and Louisville.

These would be the first 21 out if all 13 conference tourneys resulted in upsets that added tourney teams (not going to happen, but this would be the ultimate worst-case). Based on this list, MU would be the last team in even if there were 8 teams added through conference tourneys:

1.   Georgia Tech (W vs. Boston College, 73-68, March 2 at Clemson)
2.   Clemson (W at Florida State 53-50, March 2 vs. Georgia Tech)
3.   UTEP (W vs. Rice 78-64, March 2 at Marshall)
4.   Oklahoma State (W vs. Kansas 85-77, at Texas A&M)
5.   Marquette (W at Seton Hall 84-83, March 2 vs. Louisville)
6.   Florida (L at Georgia 76-78, March 2 vs. Vandy)
7.   Virginia Tech (L Maryland, March 3 NC State)
8.   Louisville (W at UConn, March 2 at MU)
9.   UConn (L vs. Louisville, March 3 at ND)
10.   Rhode Island - (L at St. Bonaventure 81-74)
11.   UAB - (W vs. Tulane 76-55)
12.   St. Mary's - (W vs. Loyola Marymount 88-80, conference tourney)
13.   Mississippi State - (W at South Carolina 76-63, March 3 at Auburn)
EVERYONE ABOVE THIS LIST MAKES IT IF THERE ARE NO TEAMS ADDED THROUGH CONFERENCE TOURNEYS
14.   Arizona State (L at California 46-62, March 4 USC)
15.   San Diego State (March 3 vs. Colorado State)
16.   Cincinnati (L at WVU 74-68, March 2 Villanova)
17.   Dayton (W Massachusetts 96-68, March 4 at Richmond)
18.   Old Miss  (W at 69th Alabama 76-73, vs. LSU)
19.   Charlotte (L at George Washington 75-70, at Rhode Island)
20.   Seton Hall (L Marquette 84-83)
21.   Notre Dame (W at Georgetown 78-64, March 3 UConn)

In 17 of the 30 conference tournaments, only the tourney champ will make the NCAA tournament. 
There are four conferences that will add another team unless the current first place team wins (Butler, 5-seed, Horizon), (Northern Iowa, 7-seed, Missouri Valley), (California, 10-seed, Metro Atlantic) and (ODU, 11-seed, Colonial).  The others of interest  are the Big East, ACC, Big 12, Big 10, SEC, Atlantic 10, Mountain West, Conference USA and the West Coast.

[bamamarquettefan]

Sorry, typo, Notre Dame and Mississippi likely replaced UConn and RHODE ISLAND.  Obviously Louisville is in as of today.

I haven't see Lunardi's last four in and out come out tonight, so he could have kept UConn in.

[PGsHeroes32]

We should be fine as long as we dont lose 3 in a row.

[MU111]

There are four conferences that will add another team unless the current first place team wins (Butler, 5-seed, Horizon), (Northern Iowa, 7-seed, Missouri Valley), (California, 10-seed, Metro Atlantic) and (ODU, 11-seed, Colonial).  The others of interest  are the Big East, ACC, Big 12, Big 10, SEC, Atlantic 10, Mountain West, Conference USA and the West Coast.

Don't forget Siena (the real MAAC leader, as opposed to Cal).  Granted, Siena's stock has been falling fast so they might not get in without a conference tourney championship, anyway.

[bamamarquettefan]

I did make a judgment call on Siena and Utah State, who I think might drop out without winning their conference tourney, but I could be wrong.  I just saw that TSN already had Louisville and Marquette as 10-seeds, and with the other two 10-seeds losing this weekend, it looks pretty clear Tuesday is two 10-seeds by all accounts.

http://www.sportingnews.com/college-basketball/article/2010-02-22/projecting-field-65-finally-shakeup-top?obref=obinsite

I think we could sneak in even losing the last three, but I don't want to see if I'm right OR risk several of these conference surprises shrinking the field.

[TallTitan34]

Great work bama. 

Hopefully we will win Tuesday and lock this thing up.

[MUBurrow]

a win against the ville would be sweet for seeding purposes

[DCWarriors04]

I think it's safe to assume that Marquette is in after the last 3 games...3 OT wins on the road and 2 against teams fighting to get into the Big Dance says a lot. There's no way the Big East doesn't send 7 teams this year. Only way I can see us not getting in is if Marquette makes a complete collapse over the next 2 weeks by losing at against Louisville and Notre Dame and there first game in the BE tourney.

All that being said, I can't see us losing 3 in a row...Buzz has this team prepared and peaking at the right time.

[bamamarquettefan]

cushion was not quite as big - Lunardi updated this morning and actually had only a six team cushion, meaning if the bids were held today there would have to be 7 upset conference winners to knock us out.  Below I put the last teams in reverse order of how I started this strand, so with one surprise conference winner, #1 San Diego State would be eliminated, etc., so SD State, Miss St, St. Mary's, Va Tech, UAB and UConn would all be eliminated before we would be even if there were a bunch of upsets.  I'm not sure how many of them can move ahead of us even if we lose, outside of a big conference tourney run by Va Tech or Miss State, so to me the biggest threat is surprise conference winners in the 13 conferences that should already have teams going:

1. San Diego State (last team in if ZERO surprise conference tourney winners add teams)
2. Miss State
3. St. Mary's
4. Virginia Tech
5. UAB
6. UConn
7. Marquette
8. Florida (was hoping loss to Georgia would put them below us, but didn't)
9. Illinois
10. Florida State
11. Clemson
12. Wake Forest
13. Louisville (that's right, 6 spots better than us, a lock today unless all 13 tourneys possible produced an additional conference team)
14. Ga Tech
15. UNLV
16. Oklahoma State
17. Texas
18. Missouri

Good news is things are really stabilizing so we might not drop almost at all with losses against tough teams.  UConn didn't move down with home loss to Louisville, and Florida didn't with loss vs. UGA.  A lot of the teams right behind us have lost to weaker opponents than we will play, so we might have more buffer than it would appear.

Then he continues with the next teams in, starting with the Irish:
1. Notre Dame
2. Minnesota
3. Rhode Island
4. Dayton
5. Mississippi
6. Seton Hall
7. Cincy
8. Memphis
9. Arizona State
10. Washington
11. Wichita State

[MuMark]

Dance Card says we have a 14 team cushion.


Bracketology 101(most accurate site over the last 3 years) has us at an 8 seed.

I trust them over Lunardi.