[Cracked Sidewalks] The Wayback Machine shows the road ahead

[NYWarrior]

The Wayback Machine shows the road ahead

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Tim Blair)

With the NBA draft deadline passing earlier this week a host of very early pre-season rankings are popping up for the college basketball-starved.  For Marquette the pattern is predicable with Adam Zagoria notably slotting the Warriors in for a 12th place finish in the still far-off BIG EAST season.    Zagoria cites the loss of key players (including Patrick Hazel, LOL) and inexperience as the reasons for the low expectations which Chris Dokish at the NBE Basketball Report also notes as he picks MU to finish 11th overall.

Considering the dramatic roster turnover these predictions are somewhat sound but MU fans ought to remember that Marquette's first BIG EAST squad was picked to finish 12th overall for similar reasons, yet surprised with a 4th place finish.  (**Say what you want about Tom Crean, but he did a heck of a job coaching that team and deserved the BIG EAST Coach of the Year nod over Jay Wright. If somebody can explain to me why Wright was the pick -- after all, Nova was favored to win the league and they did what was expected (barely) -- I'm all ears.)

Since it's only June optimism abounds in these parts and looking ahead there are a number of parallels between the Three Amigos' freshman season and the campaign Buzz' Bunch will kick off in the fall.   Consider......

The return of an outstanding senior scorer.  Lazar Hayward is this year's Steve Novak.  As a senior Novak was the most efficient offensive player in the country and a nearly impossible match-up.  Luckily for MU, Hayward is the most efficient returning offensive player in the BIG EAST (for higher-usage players, ie: involved in 20% of their team's possessions).   Hayward averaged 16 points and 6 rebounds per game as junior.  Steve Novak averaged 14 points and four rebounds per game as a junior and elevated as a senior averaging nearly 18 points and six rebound per game.  This is promising.

An offensively efficient role player.  Jimmy Butler led the BIG EAST in offensive efficiency last season.  Though the sample size is small which is what you'd expect from a role player Butler saved his best  for the back half of the BIG EAST conference slate,  a positive indicator for next season.  Looking back to the 05-06 team, senior Joe Chapman was the 6th most efficient offensive player in the BIG EAST, providing a serviceable veteran threat to complement Novak's greatness.  The 2005-2006 team was not simply Steve and the Amigos.

Overloaded, redundant perimeter talent.  I knocked Tom Crean's inability to balance a roster many times, but in 2005-2006 the formula worked.  That squad had no discernible inside presence much like we'd expect from Buzz' Bunch next season.  However by adding the Three Amigos to Novak and backcourt/wing role players like Joe Chapman and Dan Fitzgerald (who nailed 40% of his three-pointers that year) Crean created match-up problems for the opposition in most conference games.  Fast forward to next season when Buzz Williams will surround veteran role players Maurice Acker, David Cubillan and Jimmy Butler with newcomers Junior Cadougan, Dwight Buycks, Erik Williams and Darius Johnson-Odom.    In effect, the formula could be familiar to the Warrior faithful though next year's team also figures to receive a sizable boost from freshman power forward Jeronne Maymon.

The BIG EAST takes a step back.  After the 2004-2005 season the BIG EAST endured a massive talent exodus highlighted by Charlie Villanueva, Hakim Warrick, Ryan Gomes, Chris Taft, Chevy Troutman, Chris Thomas and Josh Pace.  When teams laced'em up in the 2005-2006 season two teams stood out as heavyweights, Villanova and UConn.  The rest of the league was balanced with only four games separating the 3rd place and 10th place teams.  In addition, 2004-2005 BIG EAST champ Boston College left the league that previous summer and 2005 Final Four participant Louisville joined the BIG EAST after losing All-American Francisco Garcia as well as starters Ellis Myles and Larry O'Bannon.  And we all know what happened to Bob Huggins at Cincy that off-season.  Crean's squad took full advantage of a younger, tamer BIG EAST to storm to the top quarter of the league.

This past season the BIG EAST was historically dominant placing five teams in the Sweet 16 and three in the Elite 8.   As you'd expect the outgoing talent from those teams is extraordinary.  Hasheem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien, Earl Clark, DaJuan Blair, Sam Young, Levance Fields, Terrence Williams, DaJuan Summers, the Three Amigos, Paul Harris, Jonny Flynn, A.J. Price and Dante Cunningham are just a few of the athletes who will play the game for a living in the fall.   An exodus like that creates somewhat of a vacuum that a talented team -- no matter how young or inexperienced -- figures to take advantage of.   To be sure, every other BIG EAST team is re-loading for the winter and a pair of unheralded teams like Cincinnati and Seton Hall could be poised for breakthrough seasons, so why not MU?

Player development: With roughly five months until the Warriors kick off the season, player development is crucial and based on Buzz Williams' comments last week on the radio it appears that Chris Otule  is making giant strides this summer.  On the 05-06 team, sophomore Ousmane Barro averaged a quiet four points and three rebounds per game, figures that could be attainable with modest progress from Otule.

Otule's progress is tempered a bit by Joe Fulce's problematic knee which required surgery and will keep him out of action for about 12 weeks, but the MU roster can overcome that loss.  In addition with JUCO All-American Dwight Buycks already on campus hitting the books and the off-season program the Warriors could shore up their backcourt more quickly than expected.

Again, why not?   History could be on the Warriors' side this winter.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2009/06/wayback-machine-shows-road-ahead.html

[VegasWarrior77]

They picked us for 12th our first year in the BEast and we surprised a lot of people!  Why not again!

[ChicosBailBonds]

History may repeat.  You've outlined all the reasons it could.

On the flip side, the question becomes if that group was a more special group then most?  Novak is in the NBA now and got there by having an NBA senior season, will Hayward haev an NBA senior season?  Are the freshmen going to be as good as the freshmen were back then, with DJ making Rookie of the Year and the other two having very solid years.

That team also had another senior is Joe Chapman.  Is Coobs this year's version of Chapman or are we missing that dimension?

That team also had some experience (questionable talent however) with Jamil Lott and Ryan Amoroso.  Barro was a sophomore, Dan Fitgerald on the practice squad, Chris Grimm providing some toughness and senior leadership.

On the other hand, the 2005-06 Big East was rated 2nd in the RPI, just like this past year.  I don't think the Big East will be a top 2 conference this year, so that bodes well for a more optimistic prediction.


I think at it's core, this year's squad is more talented clearly 1 through 12 (Grimm, Lott, Amoroso, etc don't have the talent these guys have), but I'd argue the Big 3 may be more talented their freshman years then any of the new kids this year (that remains to be seen obviously).

Will Butler continue to flourish, will all of the new kids be up for the challenge, who will provide the leadership, etc?  All of these question marks probably lead some to say 11th or 12th.  I think that's too low, but at this point anything from 6th to 10th seems reasonable to me.  11th or 12th seems a bit too pessimistic, but not out of the world impossible either.  Notre Dame and Georgetown come to mind from this past year alone to show how quickly it is to fall WAY below expectations in the preseason.

[dsfire]

Mostly agree with Chico.  While it's well within the realm of possibility that next year's crew will have a very similar year to 05-06, I think that group overachieved and we'd have to see some spectacular performances from the newcomers to match James and McNeal that year.  I'm also guessing we have a decent chunk less D1 played time in next year's returnees than those in 2005 (if I remember, I'll look that up later).

I do think Hayward can - and should - match Novak's senior year (with the exception of the 41/16 game and his NCAA-leading efficiency, but Hayward has other areas where he's better than Novak).

Also think Acker is more likely to play the role of Chapman on next year's squad than Cubes.

[MuMark]

Hayward averaged 8.6 rebounds a game last year not 6.

[NYWarrior]

Hayward averaged 8.6 rebounds a game last year not 6.

nice catch, thanks.......those extra few rebounds make this scenario even more likely 

[HoopsMalone]

4 years ago we also had a coach with Final Four experience.  I think Buzz knows basketball equal or better than Crean does, but Buzz's has not developed coaching savvy yet.  He did not seem to know how to use his timeouts as momentum breakers when the other team was on a run last year.  (Could also be his style to let people play).  Buzz also had relatively no substitution decisions to make once the Big 4 proved that they could log close to 40 mins per game it seemed. 

So, one big element to look for next year is how Buzz improves as a coach and how he will coach a team with mostly players he recruited.  Having coached in a lot of big games against a lot of quality teams for a season can't hurt him in any way though.

Buzz is a yeller and a motivator.  He lets off steam sometimes. (i.e. the end of the Mizzou game and a few T's he picked up)  But his actual coaching decisions seem to be based on stats and empirical evidence of how to be successful as evidenced by his obsession with paint touches and other stats like that.  The guy already has a good understanding of what he wants to see out there and the type of guys he wants to develop.  I think that all he needs is a little more savy and needs to polish off a few things, but I like his general approach and have confidence personally that he will be an improved coach and his improved decision making could mean a few more close wins.