MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: 1SE on November 15, 2017, 07:22:42 AM
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Number crunchers - does anyone have a back of the envelope on how much these inter-conference series boost RPIs (all around). Are these just a scheme of the rich yet richer (P5 conferences strengthen their schedules against each other, further cementing their RPIs)?
How about individual games - so when a Providence beat MN, ceteris paribus, how does that translate to Marquette's RPI (and how does the conditial work vis-a-vis MU's results vs. Prov)? Like does Prov's win, all else equal, raise our RPI by a spot or two? 5 spots? more? Less than one spot?
I know it's "good for us" when BE beats quality out-of-conference opposition, but in terms of a quick and dirty marginal effect - "how good"?
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Number crunchers - does anyone have a back of the envelope on how much these inter-conference series boost RPIs (all around). Are these just a scheme of the rich yet richer (P5 conferences strengthen their schedules against each other, further cementing their RPIs)?
How about individual games - so when a Providence beat MN, ceteris paribus, how does that translate to Marquette's RPI (and how does the conditial work vis-a-vis MU's results vs. Prov)? Like does Prov's win, all else equal, raise our RPI by a spot or two? 5 spots? more? Less than one spot?
I know it's "good for us" when BE beats quality out-of-conference opposition, but in terms of a quick and dirty marginal effect - "how good"?
Depends on the specifics. And remember that a lot of these interconference dealies do not include all the teams in the conference...
In the case of Prov / MN, Providence lost, so it gave a team we play twice another loss instead of a win, which plays into the 50% OWP component. We get a small lift for Opp OWP, but it's not meaningful. Overall, a negative deal for us. Would have been better for us if they had played a 13-17 type team from a middle of the road conference and won.
Our loss to Purdue helps on the 50% OWP component, but drills us in our adjusted win-loss record (1.4 losses)
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It is a huge help to play in a gavitt game instead of taking an easy win against a 300+ rpi team line we've done in the past. If you for to forecast rpi and drop and add games and results you can see this.
Since Alabama state was an early alphabetical team I clicked on the scenario of replacing the loss to Purdue with a home win against Alabama state. Given their predictions on all our other games staying the same, we end up with an RPI of 77 either with the loss to Purdue or a win against Alabama state BUT our strength of schedule is the 23rd best in the country but drops to the 49th if we played Alabama state instead. So basically you've already suffered a terrible loss to Alabama state as soon as you schedule it vs gaining 26 spots on sos with the same rpi even if there was no chance of beating Purdue.
Obviously you also give yourself a chance at the upset, so a win against Purdue would have improved our rpi forecast from 77 to 49 - so literally we played a game last night that helps us a ton even by losing and gave ourselves a chance at an invite worthy win.
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It is a huge help to play in a gavitt game instead of taking an easy win against a 300+ rpi team line we've done in the past. If you for to forecast rpi and drop and add games and results you can see this.
Since Alabama state was an early alphabetical team I clicked on the scenario of replacing the loss to Purdue with a home win against Alabama state. Given their predictions on all our other games staying the same, we end up with an RPI of 77 either with the loss to Purdue or a win against Alabama state BUT our strength of schedule is the 23rd best in the country but drops to the 49th if we played Alabama state instead. So basically you've already suffered a terrible loss to Alabama state as soon as you schedule it vs gaining 26 spots on sos with the same rpi even if there was no chance of beating Purdue.
Obviously you also give yourself a chance at the upset, so a win against Purdue would have improved our rpi forecast from 77 to 49 - so literally we played a game last night that helps us a ton even by losing and gave ourselves a chance at an invite worthy win.
And this is why beating VCU is so important. The difference between Purdue and Alabama State might be a bit more significant than Wichita State and California, but I doubt by much.
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It is a huge help to play in a gavitt game instead of taking an easy win against a 300+ rpi team line we've done in the past. If you for to forecast rpi and drop and add games and results you can see this.
It depends on the specific facts.. but in our case, and how things currently project, not playing and losing vs. Purdue and instead playing AT Alabama State and winning would have a beneficial impact on our RPI.
That's one reason why I'm not opposed to traveling to a weaker opponent (though I'd prefer a close-to-.500 type team).