Grinch Sagarin Gives MU 3.2% chance at NCAA Appearance
Christmas gifts include dominant twin towers, a 8-game winning streak, and three top 10 teams from the Big East to give MU's improving young team many chances for signature wins. In addition, MU is the top team in the nation at keeping teams off the foul line DESPITE putting up great steal and blocked shots numbers - and MU is one of only 15 teams to be both one of the 50 best shooting teams AND the 50 best at shooting defense (eFG%).
The bad news is that analytics give MU only a 3.2% chance of making it to the tournament, based on current
Sagarin ratings and the schedule ahead (virtually the same percentage as if we used
www.kenpom.com ratings).
| Scenario | Scenario Resulting in March Madness Appearance | Sagarin% | RPI, SOS, Over, BE |
|---|
| I | 20 wins or fewer but win Big East Tournament (e.g. beat SJU, Providence, Xavier, Villanova) | 0.8% | 55, 80, 24-11, 9-9 (or worse)
|
| II | 21 wins plus two tournament wins (e.g. beat Providence, Xavier, lose to Villanova) | 0.4% | 55, 75, 23-11, 10-8
|
| III | 22 wins plus one Big East tourney win (e.g. beat Providence, lose to Xavier) | 1.0% | 55, 83, 23-10, 11-5
|
| IV | 23-8 or better regular season (12-6 Big East even if 1st round loss in BE tourney) | 0.9% | 52, 96, 23-9, 12-6 (or better)
|
| BID: Chance of either 23 wins for at-large bid, or BE title (rounding of above reason for 3.2% rather than 3.1%) | 3.2% | any of above
|
| V | NO BID: Chance of anything else happening | 96.8% | 22 wins or fewer, no BE title |
The premise of my calculations is that MU needs 23 total wins for an at-large bid, because anything less leaves MU so far from the top 50 in RPI and potentially outside the top 100 in Strength of Schedule after a "play-in" game in the Big East tournament.
Both Sagarin and Pomeroy project Marquette to finish the regular season 18-13. Using the tool at
RPI Forecast, there is an 89.8 percent chance MU finishes the regular season with 20 or fewer wins, and if that is the case MU simply must win the Big East tournament to get a bid.
SCENARIO I - BIG EAST TITLE DESPITE 20 or FEWER WINS - That path would most likely entail winning four games such as St. John's (80% chance of win on neutral court), Providence (39%), Xavier (15%) and Villanova (21%). Multiply those chances together and Marquette would have a 0.94% chance of winning those four to take the title. So under the 89.6% chance of 20 or fewer wins, multiplied by the 0.94% chance of following that effort with a Big East title, there is a 0.8% chance of a bid under this scenario.
SCENARIO II - 21-10 PLUS 2 TOURNAMENT WINS (Providence and Xavier) - If MU wins 21 or more games, the 10-8 or better Big East record should result in a 5th seed or better. There is a 6.8% chance of 21 regular season wins, and a 5.58
Source: Grinch Sagarin Gives MU 3.2% chance at NCAA Appearance (http://)