What's the 5 point plan offensively? I'll defer to the Scoop experts. I mentioned I think we can turn them over a bit, and eliminate Spencer, but they really don't kick it away much. On the offensive end how would you surgically proceed vs their set D? Ty.
Pray they miss all of their threes.
Make baskets
Darkness
Just do what you do. Marquette can play with anyone.
i think they can turn uconn over just fine. Butler has been second best in conference play in protecting the ball, and we turned them over fairly well. Uconn has been 9th at turnover rate in conference play. Hit your shots, stay respectable on the boards and we should have a real shot at it.
I'm going with whatever plan Shaka comes up with. If it's good enough for him, it's good enough for me.
The thing that concerns me most about UConn from the games I've seen is their suffocating defense. They have very long, athletic players to cover the perimeter with Clingan protecting the basket.
MU is going to have to make some outside shots to open things up or it's going to be a long, difficult day. UConn completely shut down the Creighton offense, and I don't want to think much about what they did to Xavier.
If i remember correctly, in the games against UConn last year, the offense performed very well with Gold at center in meeting #2 and Joplin as the big in the BET. Pulled Clingan away from the basket. Not betting on Shaka going to that unless Oso is in foul trouble but wouldnt be surprised either.
Two keys to winning this game. Rebounding, especially not getting crushed with UConn getting many offensive rebounds. The other is stopping Newton. UConn is very good but if MU brings its A game, they can win. The win would be close.
Quote from: wisblue on February 14, 2024, 08:32:25 AM
MU is going to have to make some outside shots to open things up or it's going to be a long, difficult day.
I think this is our key to every game.
Quote from: wisblue on February 14, 2024, 08:32:25 AM
The thing that concerns me most about UConn from the games I've seen is their suffocating defense. They have very long, athletic players to cover the perimeter with Clingan protecting the basket.
MU is going to have to make some outside shots to open things up or it's going to be a long, difficult day. UConn completely shut down the Creighton offense, and I don't want to think much about what they did to Xavier.
Actually if there is a weakness to UConn or way to exploit them. It's their perimeter D.
And when Jop sits we should be looking to go at Karaban frequently
This game reminds me of a couple moments last year when MU was on a nice streak and it felt they could afford a "tough loss." It seemed in those moments they conjured some of their best play of the season. Hoping that's the case on Saturday.
Defensive rebounding will be key as well as limiting fouls on Oso.
I think UConn won't help as much as other teams we have seen. With Clingan in the middle he is going to alter or erase shot opportunities which will allow UConn's guards to stay further out on the perimeter.
MU needs to live 5-10 ft from the basket. If we do, I think it forces clingan to come out a little bit opening up some drop off passes and some fouls because he isn't as swift of foot.
On defense, I think you need to stop Newton. He is leading the team in every category (he is .1 of a point behind Spencer in scoring). He is their leading rebounder and assist man so he creates a lot of shots for others. I think you put Mitchell on him but expect to see a lot of switching with him and Oso. Put Kolek on Spencer. Over half of the FGA and half his makes are from 3. I would consider playing Ross more to cover him but I think that would limit Kolek which is a detriment to our offense.
I expect UConn to get the ball to Clingan deep in the post. I would treat him like Edey though he is a better outside shooter. I think Gold could clean up on threes and get past him on drives. Though I expect Clingan to switch on screens and just protect the hoop allowing the other defender to stop the pick and pop which is why I would live in the 5-10ft range and not try to get all the way to the hoop.
Key will be limiting our scoreless streaks. Both Jop and Kam need to show up.
Quote from: Tyler COLEk on February 14, 2024, 08:55:49 AM
This game reminds me of a couple moments last year when MU was on a nice streak and it felt they could afford a "tough loss." It seemed in those moments they conjured some of their best play of the season. Hoping that's the case on Saturday.
Would be nice to replicate the performance at Creighton last year.
Also would be nice to not replicate the performance at Hartford last year....dont get down early...
I'd like to discuss focus strategies. So if you could create a thread on that topic, I'd happily participate
It'll be interesting to see what the line opens up at. Should we pull it off it would probably be the best win that anyone in the country has, and while I don't have the data to back it up, if often seems like if the committee is splitting hairs between teams/seed lines, the team with the "best" win gets the nod.
Quote from: Its DJOver on February 14, 2024, 09:30:07 AM
It'll be interesting to see what the line opens up at. Should we pull it off it would probably be the best win that anyone in the country has, and while I don't have the data to back it up, if often seems like if the committee is splitting hairs between teams/seed lines, the team with the "best" win gets the nod.
It would easily be the best win.
Someone beating Purdue at Mackey(hasn't happened) would be the only thing that could compete with it
Quote from: PGsHeroes32 on February 14, 2024, 09:36:49 AM
It would easily be the best win.
Someone beating Purdue at Mackey(hasn't happened) would be the only thing that could compete with it
I phased it poorly, it would no doubt be the best win to date, only one that would be in the conversation would be Purdue over Zona, but that was on a neutral court. There would still be 3-ish weeks for Purdue or Houston to potentially trip up at home.
Comes down to Jop.....if continues to get exposed on opponent's first step, misses or turnovers over on his drives to the paint, and doesn't shine from deep.....not good.
If Jop plays adequate enough D, rebounds, no fouls for and ones on their off rebs, hits a few in the lane and gets hot from outside.....real nice!
Quote from: BallBoy on February 14, 2024, 09:01:01 AM
Defensive rebounding will be key as well as limiting fouls on Oso.
I think UConn won't help as much as other teams we have seen. With Clingan in the is going to alter or erase shot opportunities which will allow UConn's guards to stay further out on the perimeter.
MU needs to live 5-10 ft from the basket. If we do, I think it forces clingan to come out a little bit opening up some drop off passes and some fouls because he isn't as swift of foot.
On defense, I think you need to stop Newton. He is leading the team in every category (he is .1 of a point behind Spencer in scoring). He is their leading rebounder and assist man so he creates a lot of shots for others. I think you put Mitchell on him but expect to see a lot of switching with him and Oso. Put Kolek on Spencer. Over half of the FGA and half his makes are from 3. I would consider playing Ross more to cover him but I think that would limit Kolek which is a detriment to our offense.
I expect UConn to get the ball to Clingan deep in the post. I would treat him like Edey though he is a better outside shooter. I think Gold could clean up on threes and get past him on drives. Though I expect Clingan to switch on screens and just protect the hoop allowing the other defender to stop the pick and pop which is why I would live in the 5-10ft range and not try to get all the way to the hoop.
Key will be limiting our scoreless streaks. Both Jop and Kam need to show up.
Excellent points BB. In particular that 5-10 foot shot which is there for us any time we want. Stevie had a beautiful floater yesterday, he's been working on that shot. Kolek has made those too at critical moments and Oso hits his push shot in the paint. But the guy I really want to see take that shot a few times a game is Kam. It's absolutely there for him (even though he's banged up) and against Clingan it's a smart play when it's wide open.
Now, two other things I'd like to point out that may sound like nitpicking but I think against a team of UCONN's caliber is important. We have to stop biting so much on the shot fake from the perimeter. At times it absolutely kills us and we look like we're on skates. Lastly, and some may think I'm crazy, but at least 2-5 times we simply do not catch the ball. It drives me up the fking wall and it manifests itself both on rebounds and when we have clear steals. It reminds me of when a wide receiver is not focused on catching the football and instead is looking up the field. Be stronger usurping rebounds and for the love of God catch the freaking ball. These little things mean a lot against the elite teams imo.
Depends on how the game is officiated. If we get last night's crew, we won't be able to attack the paint as much.
Clingan only averages 20 minutes a game and is a 50% FT shooter. Might be time to use Al and his five fouls if need be.
Quote from: MuggsyB on February 14, 2024, 07:50:22 AM
What's the 5 point plan offensively? I'll defer to the Scoop experts. I mentioned I think we can turn them over a bit, and eliminate Spencer, but they really don't kick it away much. On the offensive end how would you surgically proceed vs their set D? Ty.
Ask Shaka
Oso is the key to this game imo and he cannot miss bunnies or that push floater from 4 feet like he did last night.
Quote from: Its DJOver on February 14, 2024, 09:30:07 AM
It'll be interesting to see what the line opens up at. Should we pull it off it would probably be the best win that anyone in the country has, and while I don't have the data to back it up, if often seems like if the committee is splitting hairs between teams/seed lines, the team with the "best" win gets the nod.
Kenpom and T-Rank both have 76-69 Uconn, T-Tank has UConn -7.5. It'll probably open there.
Accept the L. Get young guys more run.
Quote from: BLWarrior91 on February 14, 2024, 10:56:24 AM
Depends on how the game is officiated. If we get last night's crew, we won't be able to attack the paint as much.
Clingan only averages 20 minutes a game and is a 50% FT shooter. Might be time to use Al and his five fouls if need be.
It makes me wonder what Klingon's fouls per 40 are. He seems to get in fould trouble at times.
I think we are going to see a lot of Ben Gold on Saturday. Provided the big guys can avoid early fouls, I think they play big more than normal on Saturday. Pound the paint and pound it until they give up and try their luck giving MU the three ball.
Quote from: Spotcheck Billy on February 14, 2024, 11:41:39 AM
It makes me wonder what Klingon's fouls per 40 are. He seems to get in fould trouble at times.
4.8 in conference, 5.5 vs Tier A, 3.8 overall.
Fanta says the Marquette- UConn game is the best regular season match up the Big East has had since the realignment. Dauster says he wants to see four of these battles...including the BET and the FF.
Quote from: BLWarrior91 on February 14, 2024, 12:24:17 PM
Fanta says the Marquette- UConn game is the best regular season match up the Big East has had since the realignment. Dauster says he wants to see four of these battles...including the BET and the FF.
OTOH, UConn v. DePaul tonight may be the worst regular season match up since realignment.
Quote from: The Sultan of Semantics on February 14, 2024, 12:26:52 PM
OTOH, UConn v. DePaul tonight may be the worst regular season match up since realignment.
Or is it the ultimate trap game!
Quote from: MuggsyB on February 14, 2024, 07:50:22 AM
What's the 5 point plan offensively? I'll defer to the Scoop experts. I mentioned I think we can turn them over a bit, and eliminate Spencer, but they really don't kick it away much. On the offensive end how would you surgically proceed vs their set D? Ty.
up tempo. Run their ass. Make that Klingon joker move.
Push the tempo and turn them over. We're going to get killed on the boards, but we've got to do everything possible to not make it too bad. Hate our chances in this one, but think we can get them in the rematch in Milwaukee. Maybe they'll kill DePaul so badly tonight they'll develop a few lazy habits that take them a half of our game to reverse.
Quote from: tower912 on February 14, 2024, 11:41:24 AM
Accept the L. Get young guys more run.
I hope this is implied teal.
Quote from: tower912 on February 14, 2024, 11:41:24 AM
Accept the L. Get young guys more run.
.
And have fun. Let the game be a life lesson. Have milkshakes after the loss. No reason to confine them to wins.
Load management.
Offensively, Tyler said it after the St. John's game, if they are going to play drop coverage, Tyler hits a couple of 3s, then they can isolate their bigs on the switches. Oso got in foul trouble in the BET, so Ben and Jop were the bigs. Hurley had to switch to a zone cause Sanago was getting isolated on the perimeter too much.
Defensively, have to turn them over. MU will give away possessions on the boards, but can make it neutral by winning on turnovers.
Turn them over because thats our game: kills/shotclocks/Stevie!
Hit a few threes because thats not our game
guard the three line because thats their game
nullify Clingan because we can
Ty/Oso are who we think they are
Jop,Ben be solid because they can
Finish
3's
* ofer = game-over
* 30% - close game
* 40% - MU win
* 50% - Big win, 1 seed, etc....
Dr. B and Tower
I am signing up for your comments. While I would love to see them win on Saturday, their are bigger goals ahead.
Quote from: MDMU04 on February 14, 2024, 11:38:50 AM
Kenpom and T-Rank both have 76-69 Uconn, T-Tank has UConn -7.5. It'll probably open there.
I would take MU plus 7.5
@UConn was the one time all season MU got rolled. I will not be surprised by a repeat. Take the L, emerge healthy.
Quote from: tower912 on February 14, 2024, 05:35:07 PM
@UConn was the one time all season MU got rolled. I will not be surprised by a repeat. Take the L, emerge healthy.
It's already been a successful week for MU. If they lose Saturday, they can use DePaul as a punching bag next week. Nice to have 3 home games following Saturday.
Georgetown at DePaul would be the worst game since realignment.
When we beat UConn at home last year, they were 6 of 22 from three.
When we lost at UConn last year, they were 12 of 23 from three.
Quote from: Goose on February 14, 2024, 05:00:01 PM
Dr. B and Tower
I am signing up for your comments. While I would love to see them win on Saturday, their are bigger goals ahead.
I agree with this to a point. If the game is winnable, meaning they are playin well, I think Shaka goes for it. Rest be damned. I would be disappointed if he didn't. But if we are getting rolled, he should use it to get other more PT.
Tanya Harding em before gametime
This team isn't penciling in or expecting a loss to anyone, anywhere. Nor should they.
Quote from: wadesworld on February 14, 2024, 07:57:31 PM
This team isn't penciling in or expecting a loss to anyone, anywhere. Nor should they.
Agree. I thought Tower was joking. Apparently not.
13 months ago, muggsy wanted to know how to beat UConn. My answer was to try not to get hurt. I believed UConn was rhe best team in the country. I was not surprised MU got boat raced at their place. I was ecstatic when MU found a way to beat them twice.
I think UConn wins at home by double digits. I think MU ekes out a win at home.
So, take the L and try not to get hurt.
Quote from: tower912 on February 14, 2024, 08:14:24 PM
13 months ago, muggsy wanted to know how to beat UConn. My answer was to try not to get hurt. I believed UConn was rhe best team in the country. I was not surprised MU got boat raced at their place. I was ecstatic when MU found a way to beat them twice.
I think UConn wins at home by double digits. I think MU ekes out a win at home.
So, take the L and try not to get hurt.
Cmon dawg.
We got this.
Shooter
I 100% believe you go into the game believing and wanting to win it. I do not think it would major upset if they do win, they just need to remember that a lot of basketball left before the season is over.
I said in another thread, I think it is about 30% chance of winning going into the game and that is factoring in a big home court advantage. If they win, it will be well earned. If they lose, get home safely and get ready for next game.
Quote from: Goose on February 14, 2024, 08:39:57 PM
Shooter
I 100% believe you go into the game believing and wanting to win it. I do not think it would major upset if they do win, they just need to remember that a lot of basketball left before the season is over.
I said in another thread, I think it is about 30% chance of winning going into the game and that is factoring in a big home court advantage. If they win, it will be well earned. If they lose, get home safely and get ready for next game.
I think we'll know pretty quickly how this game is going to go. And can back off accordingly. Not sure injury is more likely win or lose or trying hard either way. So safety doesn't mean much to me other than the standard hope of safety during a game.
Realistically, this game will be tough to win. But long term vision will have nothing to do with it, nor injury concerns. Rest will be, IF we are getting the doors blown off of us from the get go.
Quote from: Goose on February 14, 2024, 08:39:57 PM
Shooter
I 100% believe you go into the game believing and wanting to win it. I do not think it would major upset if they do win, they just need to remember that a lot of basketball left before the season is over.
I said in another thread, I think it is about 30% chance of winning going into the game and that is factoring in a big home court advantage. If they win, it will be well earned. If they lose, get home safely and get ready for next game.
I did not see your 30% comment but that's exactly what I thought our chances of a W are. UCONN can afford to have some poor plays here and there and still win. Marquette has very little margin for error. I do not think that the fact that they boat raced us last year is very relevant to our chances this year but admittedly it is a factor.
Shooter
Agreed on knowing early. Last year MU played lockdown on D on UConn's first two possessions and they nailed very difficult 3's at the shot clock buzzer and the tone was set. That said there are two big differences this year, MU is much better team than last year and are battle tested. IMO, the battle tested is what makes them a much better team this year. I felt going into the season that their experience of playing in big games together was a big key to potential big success.
Quote from: Goose on February 14, 2024, 08:55:58 PM
Shooter
Agreed on knowing early. Last year MU played lockdown on D on UConn's first two possessions and they nailed very difficult 3's at the shot clock buzzer and the tone was set. That said there are two big differences this year, MU is much better team than last year and are battle tested. IMO, the battle tested is what makes them a much better team this year. I felt going into the season that their experience of playing in big games together was a big key to potential big success.
I totally agree with that Goose.
I'm hoping for that 30% chance Saturday. I know we all want bigger things but I want to win the Big East again as well. I'm of the opinion you can have your cake and eat it too.
Snoop
Last year means nothing to me. IMO, my 30% is broken down as follows:
1. One of ten they simply dominate them or catch UConn on a very bad night.
2. One(maybe a bit more) of ten they win a dogfight.
3. One of ten they just flat out steal one late in the game.
If they were playing at home this Saturday I would have it at a 60-70% chance of winning, probably closer to 60%.
MU is a serious NC contender that can beat anyone am I just not in the camp that this game is do or die. Imo, that is an amazing place for the program to be in.
UConn destroying DePaul now..... bit they got some fouls. And DePaul was holding its own on rebounds for while. Cligan had two fouls first half. We have a chance on Saturday. The 30% is probably a fair estimate - they are a tough team. They play like winners. They bang everyone around all the time. We have to be ready for that.
Go Marquette!
Quote from: Scoop Snoop on February 14, 2024, 08:10:39 PM
Agree. I thought Tower was joking. Apparently not.
Me too. Kolek 'em. Expect Victory not rest.
Win the preseason!
Quote from: wadesworld on February 14, 2024, 07:57:31 PM
This team isn't penciling in or expecting a loss to anyone, anywhere. Nor should they.
Thank you ww.
Send in the doctor
Kansas postgame: "One thing (I'm) going to make clear: We don't take a backseat to anyone. That's how we go about things."
On the radio after that game: "We're Marquette. We are Marquette, and we don't take a backseat to anyone," Smart said to ESPN Milwaukee broadcasters Steve "The Homer" True and Tony Smith after the game in a radio interview. "If someone wants to step up and challenge us, okay, we're going to challenge them right back."
After the BET semifinal win: "It felt like a lot of people were giving UConn the game coming in. And there was comments made about who owns The Garden and that kind of stuff," Smart said. "And, you know, we said wait a minute, we won this league. So we're not taking a back seat to anybody."
Sure there are bigger things to come than Saturday's game. But the idea that this team can't win this game and should throw in the towel before we've even tipped is absolutely absurd. Of course this is a challenging game and shouldn't be an expected win. But eff the idea that we "load manage," as if they're not 18-22 year olds that get 2-6 days off between games. This team is playing for a 1 seed. Winning this game doesn't make them any less likely to make a deep Tournament run. I thought Shaka had changed the mindset at MU. Guess it wasn't everyone's.
Quote from: wadesworld on February 14, 2024, 11:03:35 PM
Kansas postgame: "One thing (I'm) going to make clear: We don't take a backseat to anyone. That's how we go about things."
On the radio after that game: "We're Marquette. We are Marquette, and we don't take a backseat to anyone," Smart said to ESPN Milwaukee broadcasters Steve "The Homer" True and Tony Smith after the game in a radio interview. "If someone wants to step up and challenge us, okay, we're going to challenge them right back."
After the BET semifinal win: "It felt like a lot of people were giving UConn the game coming in. And there was comments made about who owns The Garden and that kind of stuff," Smart said. "And, you know, we said wait a minute, we won this league. So we're not taking a back seat to anybody."
Sure there are bigger things to come than Saturday's game. But the idea that this team can't win this game and should throw in the towel before we've even tipped is absolutely absurd. Of course this is a challenging game and shouldn't be an expected win. But eff the idea that we "load manage," as if they're not 18-22 year olds that get 2-6 days off between games. This team is playing for a 1 seed. Winning this game doesn't make them any less likely to make a deep Tournament run. I thought Shaka had changed the mindset at MU. Guess it wasn't everyone's.
Yeah, all this load manage/stay healthy and accept the L stuff is insane. This is game is one of the biggest big easst games in over a decade. The regular season title is on the line?
I truly dont see us coming out with the win. But that doesnt mean I want us to roll over and take it easy trying to be "safe". Nonsense.
Wanna load manage? Do what we are supposed to against trash can DePaul get up 30 at half. Load manage then next wednesday.
Ok let's talk strategy.
Oddly, I think UConn can be game planned against fairly effectively on the defensive side.
5 main guys
- 2 are complete "chase off the 3P line and stick to them like glue" players.
Karaban and Spencer shoot 40 and 45% from 3 respectively, and take over 50% of their shots from 3.
Doesn't mean they can't beat you in other ways, but they are MUCH more comfortable taking 3P shots and are elite shooters, so stick to them like glue and make them beat you off the dribble.
- Castle is the opposite. He gets most of his driving and doesn't love to shoot from 3. He's only attempted more than 3 3s in 3 of his last 10 games, shoots low 30s. So for him, sag off and clog the lanes, dare him to hoist. Don't play too aggressive and let him beat you off the dribble, he doesn't turn it over as much as the others.
- Newton is the Swiss Army knife 'do it all' type. Loves to drive, loves to shoot a lot, loves to get to the line by seeking out contact. Last 5 games he's attempted 4 or less 3s in every game, whereas the previous 5 he attempted 4 or more in every game, sometimes up to 7/9 threes.
He hasn't been a good 3P shooter so this is likely by design.
He also turns the ball over a lot, very prone to mistakes.
So, be all over him to make him uncomfortable and force mistakes, but don't fear stepping off of him and leaving him open from 3.
- Clingan is a monster size wise, blocks a lot and rebounds. Doesn't rebound as elite as you'd expect which means he's often chasing the block on all drives and others are cleaning up the glass. Fouls a good amount.
Entire squad has good size and rebounds well, so eliminating the offensive boards and putbacks will be one of the biggest keys.
Seems like the play is to glue Stevie, the NCAAs biggest pest, on Newton. Make him uncomfortable and turn him over to speed the game up and get out in transition. Make Tristen beat Stevie going to the basket, don't double and over commit.
Glue Jop on Karaban at the 3P line, make sure he doesn't come off to double, and hope he doesn't get beat off the dribble.
Have Tyler on Spencer and Kam on Castle. This could be tough because Castle has the size on Kam, and that's a tough draw for him off an ankle injury. So he might get beat a lot. If he does, and Tyler/Jop don't sag off their elite shooters it could cause a problem if Oso stays at home or an easy dunk for Clingan if he helps.
Ross and Zaide become key in this scenario.
Clingan gets doubled quickly by anyone not on Karaban or Spencer so he has to give it up and to prevent any Oso foul trouble.
You can get creative, as Shaka did last year during the BET, and drop Jop down there and then double.
Obviously, everyone needs to crash the glass. By everyone, this likely means only 3 guys because Karaban and Spencer's defenders will be out by the 3P line but Jop and TyKo in this scenario must corral the long rebounds so they need to be aggressive after the ball goes up too.
Quote from: PGsHeroes32 on February 14, 2024, 11:23:01 PM
Yeah, all this load manage/stay healthy and accept the L stuff is insane. This is game is one of the biggest big easst games in over a decade. The regular season title is on the line?
I truly dont see us coming out with the win. But that doesnt mean I want us to roll over and take it easy trying to be "safe". Nonsense.
Wanna load manage? Do what we are supposed to against trash can DePaul get up 30 at half. Load manage then next wednesday.
Yes. Posts that are remotely serious about this are a giant pile of excrement. Believe me Shaka and the boys want this game badly and 100% believe they can take them out.
Quote from: DoctorV on February 14, 2024, 11:27:28 PM
Ok let's talk strategy.
Oddly, I think UConn can be game planned against fairly effectively on the defensive side.
5 main guys
- 2 are complete "chase off the 3P line and stick to them like glue" players.
Karaban and Spencer shoot 40 and 45% from 3 respectively, and take over 50% of their shots from 3.
Doesn't mean they can't beat you in other ways, but they are MUCH more comfortable taking 3P shots and are elite shooters, so stick to them like glue and make them beat you off the dribble.
- Castle is the opposite. He gets most of his driving and doesn't love to shoot from 3. He's only attempted more than 3 3s in 3 of his last 10 games, shoots low 30s. So for him, sag off and clog the lanes, dare him to hoist. Don't play too aggressive and let him beat you off the dribble, he doesn't turn it over as much as the others.
- Newton is the Swiss Army knife 'do it all' type. Loves to drive, loves to shoot a lot, loves to get to the line by seeking out contact. Last 5 games he's attempted 4 or less 3s in every game, whereas the previous 5 he attempted 4 or more in every game, sometimes up to 7/9 threes.
He hasn't been a good 3P shooter so this is likely by design.
He also turns the ball over a lot, very prone to mistakes.
So, be all over him to make him uncomfortable and force mistakes, but don't fear stepping off of him and leaving him open from 3.
- Clingan is a monster size wise, blocks a lot and rebounds. Doesn't rebound as elite as you'd expect which means he's often chasing the block on all drives and others are cleaning up the glass. Fouls a good amount.
Entire squad has good size and rebounds well, so eliminating the offensive boards and putbacks will be one of the biggest keys.
Seems like the play is to glue Stevie, the NCAAs biggest pest, on Newton. Make him uncomfortable and turn him over to speed the game up and get out in transition. Make Tristen beat Stevie going to the basket, don't double and over commit.
Glue Jop on Karaban at the 3P line, make sure he doesn't come off to double, and hope he doesn't get beat off the dribble.
Have Tyler on Spencer and Kam on Castle. This could be tough because Castle has the size on Kam, and that's a tough draw for him off an ankle injury. So he might get beat a lot. If he does, and Tyler/Jop don't sag off their elite shooters it could cause a problem if Oso stays at home or an easy dunk for Clingan if he helps.
Ross and Zaide become key in this scenario.
Clingan gets doubled quickly by anyone not on Karaban or Spencer so he has to give it up and to prevent any Oso foul trouble.
You can get creative, as Shaka did last year during the BET, and drop Jop down there and then double.
Obviously, everyone needs to crash the glass. By everyone, this likely means only 3 guys because Karaban and Spencer's defenders will be out by the 3P line but Jop and TyKo in this scenario must corral the long rebounds so they need to be aggressive after the ball goes up too.
Dr V,
I think we need Kam and Jop to large on Saturday. And on both ends of the floor. Chase and Ben too. I would also make a concerted effort to get Oso touches. I think he's ready for this challenge.
Quote from: Goose on February 14, 2024, 09:03:08 PM
Snoop
Last year means nothing to me. IMO, my 30% is broken down as follows:
1. One of ten they simply dominate them or catch UConn on a very bad night.
2. One(maybe a bit more) of ten they win a dogfight.
3. One of ten they just flat out steal one late in the game.
If they were playing at home this Saturday I would have it at a 60-70% chance of winning, probably closer to 60%.
MU is a serious NC contender that can beat anyone am I just not in the camp that this game is do or die. Imo, that is an amazing place for the program to be in.
Once again, we are on the same wavelength regarding percentages. I have our Milwaukee chances at 60%. You have an interesting way of breaking down your 30% though. I'm looking at a broader measure- the odds that we will play at our best without a player having an off game vs. UCONN being in a position to have at least one guy having an off game, yet still winning. Marquette has little room for error or poor performance in any facet of the game. We
can do this, but it will not be easy at all.
Doc V did a great (Herman would say excellent) job at outlining a D strategy. On O, we must turn them over to counter their boards prowess and absolutely must have a very strong performance on 3 point shooting. Otherwise, they will clog the lanes, suffocating Kolek, and a repeat of last year's game is a very real possibility. Nothing I have written is new to anyone here-I'm just restating what I believe is the framework for Marquette.
Quote from: wadesworld on February 14, 2024, 07:57:31 PM
This team isn't penciling in or expecting a loss to anyone, anywhere. Nor should they.
If Shaka is going into this game expecting a loss or even
thinking of "load management", then he's not the coach I thought he was and he's probably not cut out for the Marquette job. And just so we're clear, I absolutely think that Shaka is cut out for the Marquette job. He's heading into a a top five match up against the defending national champion with the conference title effectively on the line. I guarantee you he's 100% committed to winning and not stepping onto the floor thinking that everything will be fine if they lost...maybe he can get his starters some rest. He's playing to win the league title. I know that there are a lot of fans out there who have the attitude, "we won the league and the BET title last year -- checked those off the list of accomplishments, what I really care about is the NCAA tournament and making it past the first weekend." I think that is part of why some people are willing to talk about things like load management in the biggest regular conference game Marquette has played in recent memory (ever?). I understand this sentiment -- honestly probably share it to some extent -- but I really don't think that's how guys like Shaka (and TyKo, Kam, Oso, etc.) are wired. They want to win everything. They want the conference title. They want the BET title. And they want to win in April. I hope and suspect that Shaka and his staff are spending more time researching where to buy the best shakes in Hartford than they are thinking about load management.
Also, there's not a chance in hell Shaka will call off the dogs if they're down eight with a minute left.
Quote from: MU82 on February 14, 2024, 09:54:48 PM
Losing to Marquette - twice - didn't stop UConn from winning the NC last year.
This is a good reminder for Shaka to have in his back pocket -- to share with the team
after the game
if they do not win.
'Load management' was pure sarcasm on my part.
Quote from: Goose on February 14, 2024, 09:03:08 PM
MU is a serious NC contender that can beat anyone am I just not in the camp that this game is do or die. Imo, that is an amazing place for the program to be in.
I agree with the first part of the sentence. I also agree with the second part
if we're talking about competing for the national championship -- you're undeniably right. But I think the game
is "do or die" for the Big East regular season championship. I suspect the team still is intent on defending that title. If they lose Saturday, it will be to an outstanding team and it will do absolutely nothing to diminish my belief that this team is capable of playing deep into the tournament.
This is the game we unleash Al
Al or AI. Borh have the chance to be a total game changer.
Quote from: tower912 on February 15, 2024, 07:30:47 AM
Al or AI. Borh have the chance to be a total game changer.
Al can gives us 5 fouls and 1 rebound
Quote from: Uncle Rico on February 15, 2024, 07:38:05 AM
Al can gives us 5 fouls and 1 rebound
Oops. Wrong Al. I thought you meant McGuire.
Quote from: tower912 on February 15, 2024, 07:27:21 AM
'Load management' was pure sarcasm on my part.
I honestly hadn't paid attention to who first mentioned that phrase. Knowing you as the source, I definitely would have realized that. But my post was really prompted by my surprise at the number of people who seem to think that everyone will be cool with a loss Saturday because UConn is just really good and it's a road game.
Quote from: StillAWarrior on February 15, 2024, 07:50:26 AM
I honestly hadn't paid attention to who first mentioned that phrase. Knowing you as the source, I definitely would have realized that. But my post was really prompted by my surprise at the number of people who seem to think that everyone will be cool with a loss Saturday because UConn is just really good and it's a road game.
I'm cool with a loss, I am cool with a win. It's just sports, my man. Enjoy the ride
MU is a great team having a very good season. I have been high (Rico-esque high) on them all season and will continue to be so. Losing to No.1 and defending national champ on their floor will not change any of that. Some mountains are just too high.
MU winning will put me over the moon.
So, giddyup.
Quote from: StillAWarrior on February 15, 2024, 07:50:26 AM
I honestly hadn't paid attention to who first mentioned that phrase. Knowing you as the source, I definitely would have realized that. But my post was really prompted by my surprise at the number of people who seem to think that everyone will be cool with a loss Saturday because UConn is just really good and it's a road game.
I would not be "cool with a loss" but I think it is simply quite a bit more likely than a win. This a case of hope vs. expectation.
If MU loses on Saturday, especially a bad loss or the give it away, I will be very disappointed in the outcome. I want them to win badly but want them to be ready to win 6 in a row in the tournament more. Saturday is definitely a game I 100% believe they can win and hope they do. That said, when I looked/look at the schedule I am also realistic in probable outcomes. If we were playing them on a neutral court, like Kansas or Purdue, my opinion on the game changes drastically.
Quote from: StillAWarrior on February 15, 2024, 07:50:26 AM
I honestly hadn't paid attention to who first mentioned that phrase. Knowing you as the source, I definitely would have realized that. But my post was really prompted by my surprise at the number of people who seem to think that everyone will be cool with a loss Saturday because UConn is just really good and it's a road game.
Quoting myself...always a strong move.
I should clarify: by "everyone," I meant people associated with the program (i.e., Shaka and the team) . I just saw some posts that I interpreted as suggesting that the
team would be satisfied with a competitive loss -- that they'd be doing the same "hope vs. expectation" analysis that the fans are doing. That was the point in my initial post that some
fans seem so focused on winning in the tournament that they're not too worried about the conference title but that Shaka and the team are not wired that way.
Quote from: Goose on February 15, 2024, 08:04:51 AM
If MU loses on Saturday, especially a bad loss or the give it away, I will be very disappointed in the outcome. I want them to win badly but want them to be ready to win 6 in a row in the tournament more. Saturday is definitely a game I 100% believe they can win and hope they do. That said, when I looked/look at the schedule I am also realistic in probable outcomes. If we were playing them on a neutral court, like Kansas or Purdue, my opinion on the game changes drastically.
Takeaway from Saturday, for me, will be how they play in a real hostile environment. The loss at Madison was disappointing because it felt like they no-showed. Losing is one thing. Losing because they're never in it or don't fight? That'll be disappointing. Learning time in these environments should be over for this group. You may not win, but don't roll over
Quote from: Uncle Rico on February 15, 2024, 08:27:30 AM
Takeaway from Saturday, for me, will be how they play in a real hostile environment. The loss at Madison was disappointing because it felt like they no-showed. Losing is one thing. Losing because they're never in it or don't fight? That'll be disappointing. Learning time in these environments should be over for this group. You may not win, but don't roll over
Nice post Rico. And my thoughts in the UW game were the same as yours. We
looked defeated fairly early in the game.
Quote from: Uncle Rico on February 15, 2024, 08:27:30 AM
Takeaway from Saturday, for me, will be how they play in a real hostile environment. The loss at Madison was disappointing because it felt like they no-showed. Losing is one thing. Losing because they're never in it or don't fight? That'll be disappointing. Learning time in these environments should be over for this group. You may not win, but don't roll over
Yep. This. I feel like we'll know early and I expect a dog fight. There will be no jitters. Come to win the game and let the chips fall where they may.
I thought they were very full of themselves against UW and were not mentally prepared for that game. Once they got hit in the face they buckled to some extent, for one of the few times in the Shaka era. That carried over for another few games, imo.
As we sit here today, I have little concern of seeing that type of mentality moving forward. They look completely dialed in to achieve the ultimate goal. I expect a championship level effort of Saturday and will see if that is good enough to win an extremely big game.
Saturday's loss combined with UWM & St. Thomas will put MU on the play in bracket IMO
Good news: Think I'll be watching game in a public bar setting Saturday. We are undefeated last two years when I do.
Bad news: This is clearly toughest of the games and I'm probably due for public pain.
I think this is a game we miss Sean in. He played big time in the UCONN home win last year. He's the kind of pest that can give Newton some issues. Stevie can as well, obviously, but it'd be nice to have Sean hounding Newton and Stevie using his physicality on Castle.
Quote from: wadesworld on February 15, 2024, 09:35:55 AM
I think this is a game we miss Sean in. He played big time in the UCONN home win last year. He's the kind of pest that can give Newton some issues. Stevie can as well, obviously, but it'd be nice to have Sean hounding Newton and Stevie using his physicality on Castle.
Agreed. Sean is a pest on defense. He also creates some shots at the rim with his speed and athleticism that seemed to come at just the right time in big games this year and last. Would have been nice to have him for 10 minutes just to change things up a bit. Give the opposition something else to think about. Give Tyler a rest.
But agree with others who did not like the pairing on the floor at the same time with Tyler off the ball.
Quote from: Goose on February 15, 2024, 08:52:12 AM
I thought they were very full of themselves against UW and were not mentally prepared for that game. Once they got hit in the face they buckled to some extent, for one of the few times in the Shaka era. That carried over for another few games, imo.
As we sit here today, I have little concern of seeing that type of mentality moving forward. They look completely dialed in to achieve the ultimate goal. I expect a championship level effort of Saturday and will see if that is good enough to win an extremely big game.
Well said Goose. I saw the same thing you did against Wisky. To win on Saturday I believe Kam/Chase have to score the ball. My take is UCONN is going to do everything they can not to let Tyko beat them and essentially sag Clingan and give Oso wide open ten footers. We can open the floor up if Kam in particular efficiently scores the rock, and we know he can. It absolutely changes everything for us and I think it's his time to step-up. The 6-8 footer will be there for us vs their defense. Take some of those shots with confidence. Rebounding concerns me a bit but you will see a level of tenacity from MU that we have not seen all year.
So, you want MU to run a different offense and rebound against a bigger team and if that happens MU will win. Got it.
Quote from: tower912 on February 15, 2024, 10:05:41 AM
So, you want MU to run a different offense and rebound against a bigger team and if that happens MU will win. Got it.
That's not what I said. I'm pointing out what I expect UCONN to do defensively and our counters.
I think we win if we score more points.
Quote from: wadesworld on February 14, 2024, 07:57:31 PM
This team isn't penciling in or expecting a loss to anyone, anywhere. Nor should they.
agreed. Go man-to-man, play with a chip, take the body blows and punch back.
Load management? Accept the L?
WTH is with some of you??
Quote from: Goose on February 15, 2024, 08:52:12 AM
I thought they were very full of themselves against UW and were not mentally prepared for that game. Once they got hit in the face they buckled to some extent, for one of the few times in the Shaka era. That carried over for another few games, imo.
As we sit here today, I have little concern of seeing that type of mentality moving forward. They look completely dialed in to achieve the ultimate goal. I expect a championship level effort of Saturday and will see if that is good enough to win an extremely big game.
Goose, not only do I think they will be mentally prepared for this game, but I believe they have had Saturday - and a couple other upcoming dates for that matter - circled on the calendar for months.
For this group of guys this is more than a measuring stick game, they will be looking to make a statement. They will probably need to withstand a run to start the game, but I fully believe we will see the best physical and mental effort of the season to date.
Quote from: wadesworld on February 15, 2024, 09:35:55 AM
I think this is a game we miss Sean in. He played big time in the UCONN home win last year. He's the kind of pest that can give Newton some issues. Stevie can as well, obviously, but it'd be nice to have Sean hounding Newton and Stevie using his physicality on Castle.
Can't find a link, but the play last year when 5'10" Jones stole the interior lob to 9'14" Clingan was amazing.
Quote from: barfolomew on February 15, 2024, 12:12:22 PM
Can't find a link, but the play last year when 5'10" Jones stole the interior lob to 9'14" Clingan was amazing.
Glad you mentioned this. Earlier in the year I thought I dreamt this from last year.
Sean Jones turned the game around last year and allowed MU to get back into the game.
Quote from: Goose on February 14, 2024, 09:03:08 PM
MU is a serious NC contender that can beat anyone am I just not in the camp that this game is do or die. Imo, that is an amazing place for the program to be in.
This game is do-or-die if we want to win the Big East regular season championship. Lose it and are chances are nil.
Sadly, I'm with Tower on this one. I think we have more like a 5-10% chance than a 30% chance to win this game. Something unusual is going to have to happen for us to win. On the bright side, I think we have about the same chance to beat them that Butler had to beat us in Milwaukee, so it could happen.
Quote from: CTWarrior on February 15, 2024, 01:21:37 PM
This game is do-or-die if we want to win the Big East regular season championship. Lose it and are chances are nil.
Sadly, I'm with Tower on this one. I think we have more like a 5-10% chance than a 30% chance to win this game. Something unusual is going to have to happen for us to win. On the bright side, I think we have about the same chance to beat them that Butler had to beat us in Milwaukee, so it could happen.
Home court definitely is valuable in all of college basketball, and by virtue of that alone UCONN should win. However, I think we are going to win this game. I'm not sold UCONN is a better team this year than they were last year, and I think we are now a better team than we were last year. I also feel we can create more matchup problems for UCONN, than they can us.
Gold's ability to shoot the 3 caused Clingnan/UCONN a lot of problems last year, and we may see less of Gold/Oso together. In fact this may be a rare game where Oso's minutes aren't maxed, and he plays 25-30 and can play at peak intensity.
Kolek is peaking at the right time, and I loved seeing him shoot more 6-10 floaters in the lane against Butler, as I think that will be a better strategy against UCONN versus trying to get all the way to the hoop.
CTWarrior
How did you get to a 5-10% chance of winning? I thought my 30% was pretty well thought out. To take my 30% reasoning out a bit further, I think if MU played UConn ten times at UConn, at least three of the games would be a dogfight. In my previous post on probability, I thought MU would win a dogfight 1 out of 10 times.
I will say anyone that feels MU winning would be a major upset I think they are crazy. I was talking with my son, and I said if #1 and #4 were two different teams than MU and UConn, I would say the road team probably has a 30% chance of winning and it would not be a shock. I'll give UConn an edge on MU for the moment, but I think if they played a 7 game series on a neutral court, that series goes seven games. Now, I might have a different opinion late Saturday afternoon and I will admit if I am more bullish or bearish after the game.
UConn has a 77% chance of winning according to bart torvik.
And 74% per KenPom.
But Butler had a 13.8% chance to beat us in Milwaukee.
69% chance I get high for the game
Quote from: Elonsmusk on February 15, 2024, 02:21:24 PM
However, I think we are going to win this game.
I do too.
Quote from: real chili 83 on February 15, 2024, 10:11:21 AM
I think we win if we score more points.
On today's radio show Shaka said this is not the way.....
Quote from: Goose on February 15, 2024, 02:39:09 PM
CTWarrior
How did you get to a 5-10% chance of winning? I thought my 30% was pretty well thought out. To take my 30% reasoning out a bit further, I think if MU played UConn ten times at UConn, at least three of the games would be a dogfight. In my previous post on probability, I thought MU would win a dogfight 1 out of 10 times.
I will say anyone that feels MU winning would be a major upset I think they are crazy. I was talking with my son, and I said if #1 and #4 were two different teams than MU and UConn, I would say the road team probably has a 30% chance of winning and it would not be a shock. I'll give UConn an edge on MU for the moment, but I think if they played a 7 game series on a neutral court, that series goes seven games. Now, I might have a different opinion late Saturday afternoon and I will admit if I am more bullish or bearish after the game.
They are going to be the best defensive team we face, they'll be at home, they have a guy we can't stop in Clingan and they're going to get a friendly whistle. They are going to be very primed to beat us as revenge for last year and to put away the Big East regular season. They are big and athletic which means they're going to kill us on the boards. Just feels like the stars are aligned against us for this game. Unless something crazy happens, like they can't hit a 3 or we turn them over 25 times or we shoot 60% from 3, I don't see us winning this one on the road. I will be hoping like crazy I am wrong and would be very happy to eat crow if I am.
Have we ever beat a #1 team on their home court?
The last #1 we took down was Nova?
Quote from: real chili 83 on February 16, 2024, 08:02:45 AM
Have we ever beat a #1 team on their home court?
The last #1 we took down was Nova?
Kansas. Neutral.
It would be fun to see 500 MU fans doing a court storm, chanting 'We are...Marquette'
See to it, 644.
Quote from: JakeBarnes on February 16, 2024, 08:08:03 AM
Kansas. Neutral.
Thanks for letting me off easy on that one.
Quote from: Newsdreams on February 15, 2024, 11:20:01 PM
On today's radio show Shaka said this is not the way.....
It's been proven to be effective at least 6 out of 10 times.
Quote from: tower912 on February 16, 2024, 08:40:00 AM
It would be fun to see 500 MU fans doing a court storm, chanting 'We are...Marquette'
See to it, 644.
We've already joked about trying to storm the floor. We might be able to get to the floor, but then I doubt we'll be able to get to the door. Let's hope we're in a position to try!!
Quote from: MUbiz on February 15, 2024, 02:48:42 PM
UConn has a 77% chance of winning according to bart torvik.
"So, you're telling me there's a chance!"
Quote from: Daniel on February 16, 2024, 10:38:06 AM
"So, you're telling me there's a chance!"
77 is a good number for Marquette.
We don't need any special strategies to win this game. If we just play the best version of our game for a big chunk of the game, we have a good chance to win.
UConn has to defend us and score against us, too. When we're playing well, we're a tough matchup for anybody.
82
If they avoid a 3+ minute stretch of bad basketball they will have a chance to win it. The closer we get to the game, the better I am feeling about pulling out a win.
At this point in the season, if Gold hits four (4) 3-pointers, and Mitchell chips in 10 points, Marquette is a lock. If they combine for 15 points, Marquette should win. If they combine for 20+ points, the sky is the limit for Marquette.
Quote from: Goose on February 16, 2024, 11:21:11 AM
82
If they avoid a 3+ minute stretch of bad basketball they will have a chance to win it. The closer we get to the game, the better I am feeling about pulling out a win.
Me too.
It's a great challenge, and that's good. Getting where Shaka and his team want to get isn't supposed to be easy.
Quote from: real chili 83 on February 16, 2024, 09:24:02 AM
It's been proven to be effective at least 6 out of 10 times.
In shaka I trust
Quote from: Goose on February 16, 2024, 11:21:11 AM
82
If they avoid a 3+ minute stretch of bad basketball they will have a chance to win it. The closer we get to the game, the better I am feeling about pulling out a win.
Goose,
We must be in full attack mode for 40 mins and get out of the gates quickly. The start of the game is critical imo. You know they're going to take a big swing. Stay poised, disciplined, take high percentage shots, get those long rebounds, and play with total confidence.
Muggsy
They cannot afford to miss a ton short range shots, especially early in the game. I fully expect Oso to take it hard to the basket today and close out some of the bunnies he missed on Tuesday. I think the Oso and Ben combo lead the team today and keep them in it until the end.
Quote from: Goose on February 17, 2024, 08:47:37 AM
Muggsy
They cannot afford to miss a ton short range shots, especially early in the game. I fully expect Oso to take it hard to the basket today and close out some of the bunnies he missed on Tuesday. I think the Oso and Ben combo lead the team today and keep them in it until the end.
Exactly right. Go strong!! And finish around the rim.
I'm in a good mood, so today feels like a no-lose situation:
Any win puts the BE regular season in play and firmly places us into the conversation for a number one seed. There is certainly a chance that UConn stumbles after such a dominant stretch and/or we come with our full A game on display like we did in Maui.
A close loss (within the spread) would reaffirm what we saw against Kansas and Purdue—we can compete with the best, but have to be on our game. That would hopefully help them focus down the stretch and in terms of media/public perception there would be no real damage.
Even a blowout loss, though, may not be the worst thing in this context. While it may hurt some public perception and minor seeding impact, I think there could be a silver lining in that it would be a good opportunity for the team to really pack it in for the stretch run. The 15 point loss at UConn last year spurred us on to a 10 game winning streak straight through the BE tourney, and I would expect a similar loss could have a similar effect this year.
In other words, the 8 game win streak means that we are playing with house money today and should just enjoy the ride!