Win against SJU and one game in BET. Probably solid four seed, maybe three seed.
Lose against SJU and win one game in BET. Probably a four seed?
Many scenarios, too much to list and you get the idea. Heck win the SJU game, win the BET and get a two seed.
So question. With BET #1 seed covered, do you play the starters for minimum minutes, not worried about SJU outcome or keep the streak going. BET is a major grind for the players.
Lol.
You okay like you have every other game this year. This isn't the NBA. You don't load manage.
Also, we're a 2 seed if we win 2 more games this season. Book it.
Play to win. Play for the seed. No finish line.
Win one more game and they stay locked in the 3 seed. 3 more wins and 2 seed is possible depending on others.
We should try to score more points than them.
Is this a serious topic?
Quote from: nyg on February 28, 2023, 07:34:45 PM
Win against SJU and one game in BET. Probably solid four seed, maybe three seed.
Lose against SJU and win one game in BET. Probably a four seed?
Many scenarios, too much to list and you get the idea. Heck win the SJU game, win the BET and get a two seed.
So question. With BET #1 seed covered, do you play the starters for minimum minutes, not worried about SJU outcome or keep the streak going. BET is a major grind for the players.
Huh?
Win against SJU and next thursday(probably SJU again) and we are a 3 seed lock.
Next game is Thursday - plenty of time to rest after getting another W.
Quote from: nyg on February 28, 2023, 07:34:45 PM
Win against SJU and one game in BET. Probably solid four seed, maybe three seed.
Lose against SJU and win one game in BET. Probably a four seed?
Many scenarios, too much to list and you get the idea. Heck win the SJU game, win the BET and get a two seed.
So question. With BET #1 seed covered, do you play the starters for minimum minutes, not worried about SJU outcome or keep the streak going. BET is a major grind for the players.
should mention "trap" game and this post would make a lot more sense....
Quote from: wadesworld on February 28, 2023, 07:36:08 PM
Also, we're a 2 seed if we win 2 more games this season. Book it.
All data points to this being completely false except the fact that human being are on the committee and will feel compelled to give a 17-3 conf champ who is top 5 in the polls and made the conf tourney semis a 2 seed. The NET says no but maybe the NET's creators say yes.
Quote from: PointWarrior on February 28, 2023, 07:53:59 PM
should mention "trap" game and this post would make a lot more sense....
Exactly! St John's is an obvious trap game, while we look ahead to playing......St. John's.
Cliche alert!
Can you beat a team 3 times in the same season?
;D
Quote from: tower912 on February 28, 2023, 08:08:53 PM
Cliche alert!
Can you beat a team 3 times in the same season?
;D
LOL.
Quote from: wadesworld on February 28, 2023, 07:36:08 PM
Lol.
You okay like you have every other game this year. This isn't the NBA. You don't load manage.
Also, we're a 2 seed if we win 2 more games this season. Book it.
Yes, that's what I say. Closing in on 2 seed.
Quote from: The Lens on February 28, 2023, 08:03:24 PM
All data points to this being completely false except the fact that human being are on the committee and will feel compelled to give a 17-3 conf champ who is top 5 in the polls and made the conf tourney semis a 2 seed. The NET says no but maybe the NET's creators say yes.
NET said Saint Mary's was a 2 seed.
What does Shaka do? Win.
Win in Saturday and Marquette is locked into a 3 seed IMO.
Any bad loss in NYC wouldn't affect it. Two losses B2b might make Marquette a 4, but even that's not a sure thing. That's also unfathomable.
Win thru to the final on Saturday at the Garden and cut down the nets there and I would be VERY surprised to not see Marquette on the 2 line.
I'd actually consider that a travesty by the committee
DoctorV
Well stated. A two seed should be a sure thing if we win the BET.
One thing I'd like Saturday is to see Chase get extended minutes to help him get his confidence back.
Play to win. That's the only way. Great tune up for next week in NYC.
Ummm ...
Shaka does not " change " anything
They will beat SJU on Saturday. That pretty much locks in a 3 seed.
Regardless of the NET, if they win 2 more ... they are 50/50 for a 2 seed
Quote from: tower912 on February 28, 2023, 08:08:53 PM
Cliche alert!
Can you beat a team 3 times in the same season?
;D
Dodd's says it very hard, especially if one night is a senior night and/or have tired legs.
I for one think we should have a senior night celebration for Joey, represented by empty chair Clint Eastwood style
He plays the seniors on the JV team.
Quote from: GB Warrior on February 28, 2023, 09:19:06 PM
I for one think we should have a senior night celebration for Joey, represented by empty chair Clint Eastwood style
With a pen and paper on it.
If marquette loses the next 2 they are still solidly in the top 4 seeds.
Quote from: #UnleashSean on February 28, 2023, 09:51:48 PM
If marquette loses the next 2 they are still solidly in the top 4 seeds.
We dont want a 4.
Quote from: PGsHeroes32 on February 28, 2023, 10:00:40 PM
We dont want a 4.
I was just responding to the original comment.
Quote from: PGsHeroes32 on February 28, 2023, 10:00:40 PM
We dont want a 4.
Let's just sit back and let that comment sink in.
"Alex, can I have things Duke, Kansas, UCLA, Villanova and UNC fans say in March?"
Need to have a huge win for the fans on Saturday versus The Johnnies . Keep winning and pushing for highest seed possible
Also winning keeps the poll rankings high
I think we are already locked into at least a 3 seed. We could lose twice and I don't see us falling off the three seed line.
We could reach the last 2 seed line but it will take a lot of help, we don't control our own destiny there.
Quote from: TAMU, Knower of Ball on February 28, 2023, 10:47:17 PM
I think we are already locked into at least a 3 seed. We could lose twice and I don't see us falling off the three seed line.
We could reach the last 2 seed line but it will take a lot of help, we don't control our own destiny there.
How much help?
If Marquette wins the BET still need help?
My answer is no, unless "help" is considered teams above them losing.
I'd argue that if Marquette wins the BET they get the 2, because by default some of the teams currently ahead will lose.
Getting to the final but losing and I'd argue that that's where the help part comes in.
Short of the BET final I don't think it matters much, but I will say that I wouldn't be completely floored to be a "surprise" 2 seed if MU wins the next two and loses to UConn.
Quote from: DoctorV on February 28, 2023, 10:54:46 PM
How much help?
If Marquette wins the BET still need help?
My answer is no, unless "help" is considered teams above them losing.
I'd argue that if Marquette wins the BET they get the 2, because by default some of the teams currently ahead will lose.
Getting to the final but losing and I'd argue that that's where the help part comes in.
Short of the BET final I don't think it matters much, but I will say that I wouldn't be completely floored to be a "surprise" 2 seed if MU wins the next two and loses to UConn.
Time and time again the committee has said and shown that conference tournaments don't do much for a team's seeding. Look at TAMU last season. They beat an NIT team, an eventual 2-seed, and dominated an eventual 4-seed and all they got for it was a trip to the NIT and a long incoherent manifesto from their coach.
I think we need to pass three teams to get a 2 seed at this point with only one to two regular season games left for the teams that matter. As an added challenge, our last game won't move the needle, beating SJU at home isn't impressive. As a further challenge, most of the other teams relevant games are Q1, meaning they only have opportunities to improve and no opportunities to fall. Tennessee and Kansas State are close enough that I think we could pass them if we win out and they only lose more game each. I'm not sure we're close enough to Arizona for that.
Quote from: TAMU, Knower of Ball on February 28, 2023, 11:19:06 PM
and all they got for it was a trip to the NIT and a long incoherent manifesto from their coach.
What a crazy mfer. If you are in a P6 conference and are complaining about not getting an at-large bid, then you weren't very good to begin with.
Quote from: nyg on February 28, 2023, 07:34:45 PM
Win against SJU and one game in BET. Probably solid four seed, maybe three seed.
Lose against SJU and win one game in BET. Probably a four seed?
Many scenarios, too much to list and you get the idea. Heck win the SJU game, win the BET and get a two seed.
So question. With BET #1 seed covered, do you play the starters for minimum minutes, not worried about SJU outcome or keep the streak going. BET is a major grind for the players.
Marquette is a three seed or higher no matter what happens the rest of the way. You are not paying attention if you think the team is still on the four line.
Probably start Wrightsil on Senior night and see how much he can go?
(They are going to play normal minutes to win the game.)
Quote from: CountryRoads on February 28, 2023, 11:39:15 PM
What a crazy mfer. If you are in a P6 conference and are complaining about not getting an at-large bid, then you weren't very good to begin with.
Their non-conference schedule was so bad. Like historically awful if I remember right. But TAMU would obviously know letter than me.
"You play to win the game!"
HE
Quote from: tower912 on February 28, 2023, 08:08:53 PM
Cliche alert!
Can you beat a team 3 times in the same season?
;D
This raises an interesting quandary (teal alert).
MU's first NET game will be against either Butler or SJU. We know from people who know much more about basketball than we do (maybe because they had a coach in the family) that it is much harder to beat a team for the third time in the same season.
So, maybe the best thing to do would be to tank against SJU and hope they beat Butler in the first round at MSG. That way MU would not be forced to play a team that they've already beaten twice and would be fired up for revenge.
But, on the other hand, if MU wants to make it to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament, we know that it would be better to lose in their first game in the BET and follow the lead of the 2003 that lost in the first round of the CUSA tournament. They then cruised to the Final Four against teams that wore themselves out in their conference tournaments. Therefore, it might be better to beat SJU on Saturday to give them the motivation they need to seek revenge in the BET.
So, what to do? Whatever they do, if they're trying to follow precedents, I wouldn't recommend having the team plane slide off the runway on the way to NYC just because the only team that tried that ploy proceeded to win 4 games in 4 days to win their conference tournament and then advanced to the Sweet 16 as a 7 seed. The airplane incident seemed to counterbalance the tired legs theory.
Is it really hard to beat a bad team three times in a season? That seems like a cliche that doesn't really have a basis in reality.
play to WIN
honor the seniors
play to WIN
expand the line and get as much PT to ben, chase and jop and seany as possible
rest and confidence
question-who would be next off the bench, if needed, after chase, ben, jop & sean?
play to WIN
Quote from: The Sultan of Semantics on March 01, 2023, 05:53:51 AM
Is it really hard to beat a bad team three times in a season?
No.
Quote from: The Sultan of Semantics on March 01, 2023, 05:53:51 AM
That seems like a cliche that doesn't really have a basis in reality.
It is.
Quote from: The Sultan of Semantics on March 01, 2023, 05:53:51 AM
Is it really hard to beat a bad team three times in a season? That seems like a cliche that doesn't really have a basis in reality.
Even Dodds retreated from "hard" and said it was "harder" to beat a team the third time than it was the first two. He also said that you can't tell if it was harder or not just from scores, making his premise impossible to disprove.
I still think it's hogwash. It might be challenging to play a team 3 times because the opponent learns things about you and you might have to make adjustments. But that would seem to apply equally to both teams regardless of what happened in the first two.
I think its just math. If there is an 80% chance you will be a team, that's pretty good right? But that means there is only about a 50% chance you will beat them three times.
Anyway if Dodds firmly believes something like that is the case, you can pretty much assume its not.
Quote from: The Sultan of Semantics on March 01, 2023, 07:13:45 AM
I think its just math. If there is an 80% chance you will be a team, that's pretty good right? But that means there is only about a 50% chance you will beat them three times.
Anyway if Dodds firmly believes something like that is the case, you can pretty much assume its not.
The thing about this cliche is that people only say it when one team has
already won the first two games. At that point, a good explanation is that the team that won the first two games is a better team. As the better team, there's a relatively good chance they will also win the third game.
When the two teams are 0-0 against each other at the beginning of the season, there's probably some truth to the statement. But by the time one team is 2-0 against the other and everyone is spouting the cliche, it's far less likely to be true.
NFL.
Gotta keep on keepin' on.
Quote from: The Sultan of Semantics on March 01, 2023, 07:13:45 AM
I think its just math. If there is an 80% chance you will be a team, that's pretty good right? But that means there is only about a 50% chance you will beat them three times.
Anyway if Dodds firmly believes something like that is the case, you can pretty much assume its not.
It's never happened in college basketball
Quote from: TAMU, Knower of Ball on February 28, 2023, 11:19:06 PM
Time and time again the committee has said and shown that conference tournaments don't do much for a team's seeding. Look at TAMU last season. They beat an NIT team, an eventual 2-seed, and dominated an eventual 4-seed and all they got for it was a trip to the NIT and a long incoherent manifesto from their coach.
I think we need to pass three teams to get a 2 seed at this point with only one to two regular season games left for the teams that matter. As an added challenge, our last game won't move the needle, beating SJU at home isn't impressive. As a further challenge, most of the other teams relevant games are Q1, meaning they only have opportunities to improve and no opportunities to fall. Tennessee and Kansas State are close enough that I think we could pass them if we win out and they only lose more game each. I'm not sure we're close enough to Arizona for that.
You are assuming that the committee looks at
only NET ranking and metrics. Its not true. If it were they wouldn't need a committee. There is a human element to the selection and the committee members vote. The committee has said there are mathematical elements they use, but it is still partly an art and not entirely a science.
We will see, but if MU is ranked 5th or 6th with a big east title in their pocket, they will be a 2 seed.
I would be very surprised with anything higher than a 3 seed.
Think it would be very difficult to get up to a 2. We only have 5Q1 wins, and our max would be 7 with winning the BET, plus Wisconsin could very easily dip back to a Q3 loss. Then you compare that to a team like Baylor with their 11 Q1 wins, 0 losses outside Q1, and their best wins are better than our best wins. Sure they might finish behind us in the AP poll, but resume wise, there's a lot of ground that needs to be made up in very little time.
Quote from: hairy worthen on March 01, 2023, 08:10:49 AM
You are assuming that the committee looks at only NET ranking and metrics. Its not true. If it were they wouldn't need a committee. There is a human element to the selection and the committee members vote. The committee has said there are mathematical elements they use, but it is still partly an art and not entirely a science.
The art in selection isn't in brining outside factors in to influence a decision (though I've repeatedly said that the selection committee members are human so outside factors like play a small role consciously or subconsciously). The art is in comparing resumes full of conflicting metrics and numbers.
These are the most important factors to seeding:
Overall records by quadrant (specifically Q1 wins and Q3/Q4 losses)
Away and neutral records by quadrant
Overall road and neutral records
Non-Conference strength of schedule
Overall strength of schedule
Here's how MU's resume compares to the current 2 seeds in these categories:
Texas is better in 4/5 categories
UCLA is better in 5/5 categories
Baylor is better in 4/5 categories
Arizona is better in 3/5 categories
The thing holding us back is our non-conference SOS and overall SOS. We played a really weak non-conference and the Big East isn't especially strong this year. To show you the difference:
(SOS/Non-Con SOS)
Marquette 82/196
Texas 21/143
Baylor 2/35
Arizona 72/17
UCLA 50/61
We're last in both categories. That's why we are trailing behind despite having better overall records than Texas and Baylor.
Quote from: hairy worthen on March 01, 2023, 08:10:49 AM
We will see, but if MU is ranked 5th or 6th with a big east title in their pocket, they will be a 2 seed.
Only if they get the help they need. You're getting caught up in the emotion of winning the BET. Would you say the same about Virginia? Virginia could win out from here, have the same overall record as MU and be the ACCT champion. UCLA and Arizona both have better overall records than MU and could finish 1 and 2 in the PAC 12. Baylor, Texas, and Kansas State could all win out until the B12T semis and then two of them could advance to the B12T championship. Tennessee could win out.
Seeding is never just about what you do. It is also about what the other teams around you do. MU is 2-3 spots out of a 2 seed at this point. Winning out won't cut it. They need to win out and have some teams in front of them lose, depending on who loses they may need them to lose multiple games.
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on March 01, 2023, 12:25:01 AM
Probably start Wrightsil on Senior night and see how much he can go?
(They are going to play normal minutes to win the game.)
Haha this was good.
Think they let him use the crutches? Or maybe put him on one of those little roll scooters?
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on March 01, 2023, 12:25:01 AM
Probably start Wrightsil on Senior night and see how much he can go?
(They are going to play normal minutes to win the game.)
Sultan will be so happy for him.
Quote from: The Sultan of Semantics on March 01, 2023, 07:13:45 AM
I think its just math. If there is an 80% chance you will be a team, that's pretty good right? But that means there is only about a 50% chance you will beat them three times.
Anyway if Dodds firmly believes something like that is the case, you can pretty much assume its not.
That is incorrect math. If you have an 80% chance of beating a team then, before you have played them once, the probability of winning all 3 is close to 50%.
But, as has been said, this only comes up when one team has won both previous games. Once those first two are in tha bank, the probability of winning the third is 80%
Quote from: ZiggysFryBoy on March 01, 2023, 10:38:35 AM
Sultan will be so happy for him.
Why would I be happy for him?
Quote from: wisblue on March 01, 2023, 11:50:20 AM
That is incorrect math. If you have an 80% chance of beating a team then, before you have played them once, the probability of winning all 3 is close to 50%.
But, as has been said, this only comes up when one team has won both previous games. Once those first two are in tha bank, the probability of winning the third is 80%
That's a good point.
Quote from: The Sultan of Semantics on March 01, 2023, 11:54:47 AM
Why would I be happy for him?
He's your guy.
Wait. That's Ellis. They look alike.
It also matters how much you beat the opponent the first two times. I would be fine with seeing DePaul or Butler, would be much more nervous against either Nova or Creighton.
Who in the hell is Doods, hey?
Quote from: ZiggysFryBoy on March 01, 2023, 11:58:46 AM
He's your guy.
Wait. That's Ellis. They look alike.
Oh. You're still talking about that? For a second I actually thought you came up with something clever.
But instead you seem obsessed with my posts in the weirdest way.
Quote from: The Sultan of Semantics on March 01, 2023, 12:19:30 PM
Oh. You're still talking about that? For a second I actually thought you came up with something clever.
But instead you seem obsessed with my posts in the weirdest way.
Racist.
You wouldn't let something like that go, so why should I?
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 link=topic=64388.msg1525534#msg1525534 date=
Probably start Wrightsil on Senior night and see how much he can go?
(They are going to play normal minutes to win the game.)
I don't know what Wrightsil's future plans are, but given the timing of his injury he could apply for a medical hardship waiver and gain another year of eligibility--but only if he doesn't play the rest of this year.
Quote from: ZiggysFryBoy on March 01, 2023, 12:27:13 PM
Racist.
You wouldn't let something like that go, so why should I?
You can do what you want. Carry on.
Quote from: The Equalizer on March 01, 2023, 12:27:57 PM
I don't know what Wrightsil's future plans are, but given the timing of his injury he could apply for a medical hardship waiver and gain another year of eligibility--but only if he doesn't play the rest of this year.
I think the medical redshirts are still a thing. I just don't think Wrightsill will be at MU unless we have more than 1 transfer out.
Quote from: 4everwarriors on March 01, 2023, 12:14:21 PM
Who in the hell is Doods, hey?
I think Stevie is that dood
Quote from: nyg on February 28, 2023, 07:34:45 PM
So question. With BET #1 seed covered, do you play the starters for minimum minutes, not worried about SJU outcome or keep the streak going. BET is a major grind for the players.
I'm going to resurrect my post from a somewhat similar thread last week:
Quote from: StillAWarrior on February 23, 2023, 01:25:23 PM
Just. Win. Saturday.
Don't change a thing. Play to win. If we can build a huge lead, let the starters get an extra couple minutes of rest...just like you would any other game.
Quote from: The Sultan of Semantics on March 01, 2023, 05:53:51 AM
Is it really hard to beat a bad team three times in a season? That seems like a cliche that doesn't really have a basis in reality.
https://twitter.com/hoopvision68/status/1102285710034432001?s=46&t=el-XnIMOEDcxAw3lmg3L5A
Quote from: panda on March 01, 2023, 01:25:51 PM
https://twitter.com/hoopvision68/status/1102285710034432001?s=46&t=el-XnIMOEDcxAw3lmg3L5A
Thank you.
Whatever he thinks is best.
Quote from: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 01, 2023, 08:58:06 AM
The thing holding us back is our non-conference SOS and overall SOS. We played a really weak non-conference and the Big East isn't especially strong this year. To show you the difference:
(SOS/Non-Con SOS)
Marquette 82/196
Texas 21/143
Baylor 2/35
Arizona 72/17
UCLA 50/61
I don't disagree with your conclusions, but I wonder what source you are using for strength of schedule.
On the NCAA team sheets they list SOS for both NET and RPI.
On that MU's numbers are 48/134 NET and 87/217 RPI. Their NET overall SOS of 48 is slightly better than both UCLA (53) and Arizona (70). When I have heard the Committe spokesperson after the selection show, it seems like they talk about the NET SOS.
Quote from: real chili 83 on February 28, 2023, 07:44:49 PM
We should try to score more points than them.
Chili knows ball
Shaka the world.
https://breakingt.com/products/marquette-shaka-the-world?currency=USD&variant=39395285041201&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=google&utm_campaign=Google%20Shopping&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIwZDxgKu9_QIVvTizAB0qrA4sEAQYAiABEgLEePD_BwE
(https://media.cdn.lockerroomaccess.com/uploads/virginia/original/2X/c/ce3ddf5559c30f144471ff4e939607108c570bc8.gif)
Quote from: muwarrior69 on March 02, 2023, 07:23:30 AM
Shaka the world.
https://breakingt.com/products/marquette-shaka-the-world?currency=USD&variant=39395285041201&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=google&utm_campaign=Google%20Shopping&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIwZDxgKu9_QIVvTizAB0qrA4sEAQYAiABEgLEePD_BwE
Way better than the Rothstein collection.