I say we beat Butler at Fiserv.
DePaul is playing really well lately and is on the verge of kicking someone's ass and good. If we continue to insist on doing incredibly stupid things at inopportune times at the end of games, we could easily lose.
St. John's a toss up.
Huge Shaka fan, but the team needs to win the next three games (against inferior opponents) and at least one in the BET else:
1) the February Fade crowd will have a field day
2) the January 5-2 gauntlet record appears to be more of a "fart in the wind" with each loss
Quote from: Dickthedribbler on February 20, 2022, 05:17:58 PM
I say we beat Butler at Fiserv.
DePaul is playing really well lately and is on the verge of kicking someone's ass and good. If we continue to insist on doing incredibly stupid things at inopportune times at the end of games, we could easily lose.
St. John's a toss up.
Feels like 1-2. Beat Butler, lose the next two.
Hard to describe how much of a cliff they have fallen off defensively.
Quote from: PointWarrior on February 20, 2022, 05:29:04 PM
Huge Shaka fan, but the team needs to win the next three games (against inferior opponents) and at least one in the BET else:
1) the February Fade crowd will have a field day
2) the January 5-2 gauntlet record appears to be more of a "fart in the wind" with each loss
If we win the next 3 BET no matta.
I think we win out. In fact I would be shocked if we didn't.
They way MU is playing they could easily lose all 3 too.
MU needs to regroup and get back to what got them through the gauntlet. Play hard and play for each other.
Yep, they could lose all 3 and it would put them back as a bottom feeder in the BE despite a good run in Jan.
Quote from: Norm on February 20, 2022, 09:29:49 PM
They way MU is playing they could easily lose all 3 too.
MU needs to regroup and get back to what got them through the gauntlet. Play hard and play for each other.
Quote from: PointWarrior on February 20, 2022, 05:29:04 PM
Huge Shaka fan, but the team needs to win the next three games (against inferior opponents) and at least one in the BET else:
1) the February Fade crowd will have a field day
This is your #1 concern? Who cares what a bunch of interwebs mopes think?
Marquette needs to win because winning always beats losing. 3-0 is not just doable but likely. I almost feel sorry for Butler.
IMO, all that matters is how they do in March. It is a long season and they played a difficult schedule and a ton of intensity for over a month takes a toll. This is a time to get three wins and get as many guys PT as possible.
Quote from: Goose on February 21, 2022, 09:56:33 AM
IMO, all that matters is how they do in March. It is a long season and they played a difficult schedule and a ton of intensity for over a month takes a toll. This is a time to get three wins and get as many guys PT as possible.
Everyone else in the league also plays a difficult schedule and a long season with a ton of intensity.
Some of those teams are handling things better at the end of the season than MU
DePaul has Freeman-Liberty back and they are a nuisance, Will be a tough game. Butler.... We should win that one. St John's is playing well - tough matchup. We will have our hands full with the last three games.
Need to get back to sharing the ball more, attacking the basket, crashing the boards, and better shot selection. And our defense needs to be productive.
Go Marquette!
jesmu
I am not sure who had a tougher Jan schedule, but I will give them a pass for a bit of letdown. Honestly, I am disappointed with the Butler loss, but UConn and Creighton are far from cupcakes on the road. Losing sucks and no one likes it, but I think Shaka has been wiggle room to try different things and lineups over the past few games. Now it is time to clean things up and move onto bigger things in upcoming weeks.
Quote from: MuggsyB on February 20, 2022, 08:40:27 PM
I think we win out. In fact I would be shocked if we didn't.
Agree with your first sentence. Disagree on your second (I think I would be mildly surprised, not shocked). Even without the losses to Creighton and Butler, the here and now of it all is that St. Johns and DePaul have shown that, despite their overall performances/records, they are capable of occasionally playing very solid games.
We no longer have the #4-5 BET seed in our pocket. I would like to see us be the #4-#5 and have a chance for revenge vs. Creighton. Win and play either Nova or Providence. I'm good with that. If we end up #6, we face GT, win, and then... probably UCONN. I'm NOT good with that. Do well in the BET and we reap benefits in NCAAT seeding.
I'll leave it up to Brew to sift through the ramifications of our regular season end, but I think parceling out the next three games, BET and NCAAT for discussion is a mistake.
I will be leaving my house soon and not be back until late afternoon to reply.
Quote from: Scoop Snoop on February 21, 2022, 10:41:16 AM
Do well in the BET and we reap benefits in NCAAT seeding.
Don't get me wrong, the BET is one of my favorite sporting events of the year, but I'm not sure conference tournaments really have much impact on the bubble or seeding. As far as the NCAA tournament goes, I'm not sure the games mean much. I think with all of the logistics and constraints required to produce the bracket, Marquette (and most others) will be slotted in their spot on Thursday or Friday before Selection Sunday. I imagine the committee would just scramble or have contingency plans if really crazy things started happening in the conference tournaments.
Quote from: Scoop Snoop on February 21, 2022, 10:41:16 AM
Agree with your first sentence. Disagree on your second (I think I would be mildly surprised, not shocked). Even without the losses to Creighton and Butler, the here and now of it all is that St. Johns and DePaul have shown that, despite their overall performances/records, they are capable of occasionally playing very solid games.
We no longer have the #4-5 BET seed in our pocket. I would like to see us be the #4-#5 and have a chance for revenge vs. Creighton. Win and play either Nova or Providence. I'm good with that. If we end up #6, we face GT, win, and then... probably UCONN. I'm NOT good with that. Do well in the BET and we reap benefits in NCAAT seeding.
I'll leave it up to Brew to sift through the ramifications of our regular season end, but I think parceling out the next three games, BET and NCAAT for discussion is a mistake.
I will be leaving my house soon and not be back until late afternoon to reply.
I fully expect to win out s-snoop. There is a zero % chance we lose to Butler at home. My general take is that we should fear no one in the BET and have lost a number of games because we beat ourselves. I believe we will learn from this one and get things back on track.
Now there's no denying yesterday sucked, and there's a lot of blame to go around. Something that has not been talked about enough are the turns and how they were committed and are correctable.
Our three primary players that handle the rock cannot commit 13 turns. And what's most disturbing about them s-snoop is that most were on the dribble and being completely out of control or forcing one on one. This must be addressed imo. Part of the problem with Lewis is not recognizing when to pass when the double comes, or being worried the double is coming and playing too fast. Slow down and value and control the basketball. Have to play better fundamental basketball.
Quote from: CountryRoads on February 21, 2022, 10:52:11 AM
Don't get me wrong, the BET is one of my favorite sporting events of the year, but I'm not sure conference tournaments really have much impact on the bubble or seeding. As far as the NCAA tournament goes, I'm not sure the games mean much. I think with all of the logistics and constraints required to produce the bracket, Marquette (and most others) will be slotted in their spot on Thursday or Friday before Selection Sunday. I imagine the committee would just scramble or have contingency plans if really crazy things started happening in the conference tournaments.
I think this is pretty accurate. Unless a bubble team gets crazy hot and wins the whole thing, I don't think the Conference Tourneys matter as much as we think.
It sounds like the framework of the bracket is pretty well-established by the time the weekend hits.
The last three regular season games are all certainly winnable, but, as has been noted, Butler is playing a lot better recently, DePaul is dangerous, and StJ is a potential problem. If we lose two, there may not be a tournament spot for us. I don't know the ins and outs of the metrics, but, say we lose two remaining games, a 17-12 overall record and a 10-9 conference record does not exactly scream "tournament team" - especially since there will be surprise teams that have to be accommodated on Selection Sunday.
Marquette in February and March have been very difficult to follow since 2013.
This team included. I'm struggling to separate this new group from the past groups even though it should be easy because they are completely unrelated.
Maybe it is because my confidence in the program is still low because of the past few years, but I actually think Butler will beat Marquette on Saturday. Is Marquette more talented? Yes. But Butler didn't look flustered by anything Marquette threw at them.
Hopefully the home crowd makes a difference!
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on February 21, 2022, 12:09:15 PM
I actually think Butler will beat Marquette on Saturday.
I actually think you're insane!
Marquette will crush Butler, just as St. John's did a few days ago.
Quote from: MU82 on February 21, 2022, 12:11:59 PM
I actually think you're insane!
Marquette will crush Butler, just as St. John's did a few days ago.
I hope you're right, though against St. John's, Butler played without Hodges and with an injured Nze.
Also they got Bolden back who can shoot it.
Quote from: cheebs09 on February 21, 2022, 11:31:29 AM
I think this is pretty accurate. Unless a bubble team gets crazy hot and wins the whole thing, I don't think the Conference Tourneys matter as much as we think.
It sounds like the framework of the bracket is pretty well-established by the time the weekend hits.
I understand that much of the decision making is firming up by conference championship time, but it seems that there is still an opportunity to move up (or down) in overall ranking. Depending on where a team is on a seed line, I would think that they could be bumped up/down a line.
Calling Brew. Come in please.
Quote from: Scoop Snoop on February 21, 2022, 04:00:20 PM
I understand that much of the decision making is firming up by conference championship time, but it seems that there is still an opportunity to move up (or down) in overall ranking. Depending on where a team is on a seed line, I would think that they could be bumped up/down a line.
Calling Brew. Come in please.
Paraphrasing from Brew's podcast.......a team is more likely to drop down than move up based upon conference tournament results. That being said......even that doesn't happen much. There is not as much movement as it seems that you may think that there is.
January MU goes 3-0.
February MU probably goes 1-2.
Hoping they get pissed off and focused after the last one. The first gift to CRT set them on fire. Let's win 7 in a row again. That would pretty well get us off the 7-line.
I will say they go 2 - 1. If they somehow lose to an inferior Butler team, on NMD, in front of a sell out... when
owing them big in a revenge game...
It's time get the life boats.
Quote from: We R Final Four on February 21, 2022, 05:56:26 PM
Paraphrasing from Brew's podcast.......a team is more likely to drop down than move up based upon conference tournament results. That being said......even that doesn't happen much. There is not as much movement as it seems that you may think that there is.
I think there's a pattern within the Big East that shows where historically the tournament has been a difference maker.
Finishing a full game over .500 is strongly correlated with getting an NCAA a bid, regardless of what happens in New York. Since realignment, 13 teams finished 1 game over .500 (all of them prior to UConn joining, so all 10-8 in conference. Nobody finished 11-9 yet). 12 of those teams made the BET, regardless of their performance in the BET (for the record, 7 won at least one game, 5 lost their BET opener).
However, a .500 record has historically meant that a win the BET is needed to make the NCAA tournament. Since realignment, no Big East team with a .500 record has made into the NCAA field without also winning at least one tournament game. Furthermore, winning a game in the BET is necessary, but insufficient. Three .500 teams won their opener, and still missed the NCAA tournament.
All three teams .500 teams that won two BET tournament games made the NCAA tournament
In the data, I included the three teams from 2021 that played an odd number of games and were 1/2 game off a .500 record. (St. Johns and Seton Hall went 10-9, and Providence was 9-10). Given that each team could have finished .500 had they played all their games, I included them with the .500 teams. None of the three made the tournament.
| Year | Team | Standings | Make NCAA? | At Least One BET win | Notes |
| 2014 | Marquette | .500 | N | N | |
| 2015 | Xavier | .500 | Y | Y | Won 2 games, lost BET Championship |
| 2016 | Creighton | .500 | N | N | |
| 2017 | Xavier | .500 | Y | Y | Won 2 games, lost in semis |
| 2018 | Butler | .500 | Y | Y | Won first game, lost in semis |
| 2018 | Marquette | .500 | N | Y | |
| 2019 | Seton Hall | .500 | Y | Y | Won 2 games, lost BET Championship |
| 2019 | Xavier | .500 | N | Y | |
| 2019 | Creighton | .500 | N | N | |
| 2019 | Georgetown | .500 | N | N | |
| 2021 | St. Johns | .500* | N | N | |
| 2021 | Seton Hall | .500* | N | Y | |
| 2021 | Providence | .500* | N | N | |
So if you're keeping score over the next three games--if we win 2 or 3 to finish 11-8 or 12-7, we're looking good for an NCAA bid regardless of what happens in New York.
If we drop two of the next three, we're likely going to need a win or two in the BET.
Both Depaul and St. John's were hurt by covid at start of Big East play. They are better than their records.
Quote from: Scoop Snoop on February 21, 2022, 04:00:20 PM
I understand that much of the decision making is firming up by conference championship time, but it seems that there is still an opportunity to move up (or down) in overall ranking. Depending on where a team is on a seed line, I would think that they could be bumped up/down a line.
Calling Brew. Come in please.
You don't play your way in during Championship Week, but a bad loss can keep you out. If you take a bad loss (Xavier to DePaul last year) and there are bid thieves, that's a dangerous combination.
There's more evidence of teams moving a line or two up the bracket than on the bubble. A conference title can move a team up a line, though more typically it's like 2019, where MU was a 5, lost early, and stayed a 5 while Nova was a 6, won the conference tourney, and stayed a 6.
Championship Week is exciting, but has little impact on the bracket, no matter what the talking heads (that want you watching all those games) say.
Quote from: brewcity77 on February 22, 2022, 09:43:59 PM
You don't play your way in during Championship Week, but a bad loss can keep you out. If you take a bad loss (Xavier to DePaul last year) and there are bid thieves, that's a dangerous combination.
There's more evidence of teams moving a line or two up the bracket than on the bubble. A conference title can move a team up a line, though more typically it's like 2019, where MU was a 5, lost early, and stayed a 5 while Nova was a 6, won the conference tourney, and stayed a 6.
Championship Week is exciting, but has little impact on the bracket, no matter what the talking heads (that want you watching all those games) say.
Thanks Brew.
Quote from: The Equalizer on February 22, 2022, 08:21:49 PM
I think there's a pattern within the Big East that shows where historically the tournament has been a difference maker.
Finishing a full game over .500 is strongly correlated with getting an NCAA a bid, regardless of what happens in New York. Since realignment, 13 teams finished 1 game over .500 (all of them prior to UConn joining, so all 10-8 in conference. Nobody finished 11-9 yet). 12 of those teams made the BET, regardless of their performance in the BET (for the record, 7 won at least one game, 5 lost their BET opener).
However, a .500 record has historically meant that a win the BET is needed to make the NCAA tournament. Since realignment, no Big East team with a .500 record has made into the NCAA field without also winning at least one tournament game. Furthermore, winning a game in the BET is necessary, but insufficient. Three .500 teams won their opener, and still missed the NCAA tournament.
All three teams .500 teams that won two BET tournament games made the NCAA tournament
In the data, I included the three teams from 2021 that played an odd number of games and were 1/2 game off a .500 record. (St. Johns and Seton Hall went 10-9, and Providence was 9-10). Given that each team could have finished .500 had they played all their games, I included them with the .500 teams. None of the three made the tournament.
| Year | Team | Standings | Make NCAA? | At Least One BET win | Notes |
| 2014 | Marquette | .500 | N | N | |
| 2015 | Xavier | .500 | Y | Y | Won 2 games, lost BET Championship |
| 2016 | Creighton | .500 | N | N | |
| 2017 | Xavier | .500 | Y | Y | Won 2 games, lost in semis |
| 2018 | Butler | .500 | Y | Y | Won first game, lost in semis |
| 2018 | Marquette | .500 | N | Y | |
| 2019 | Seton Hall | .500 | Y | Y | Won 2 games, lost BET Championship |
| 2019 | Xavier | .500 | N | Y | |
| 2019 | Creighton | .500 | N | N | |
| 2019 | Georgetown | .500 | N | N | |
| 2021 | St. Johns | .500* | N | N | |
| 2021 | Seton Hall | .500* | N | Y | |
| 2021 | Providence | .500* | N | N | |
So if you're keeping score over the next three games--if we win 2 or 3 to finish 11-8 or 12-7, we're looking good for an NCAA bid regardless of what happens in New York.
If we drop two of the next three, we're likely going to need a win or two in the BET.
We should be fine as long as we win one of the next three. We might drop to a 9 or 10 seed due to overall win/loss record, but there should be enough quality there to get us in with room to spare. Torvik projects MU as a 7 seed with a 2-1 finish but a 9 with a 1-2 finish. Huge tumble from a protected seed but not close to missing entirely.
If we go 0-3, we're in a lot of trouble even if we end up winning a few in the BET.
Win the next one and we're in. No Q3 or 4 losses and a slew of Q1 wins.
Let's get that next one and then the next two.and make sure we're on the 6 line - huge jump in probability of winning the first round.game moving from 7, 8, 9 or 10 to 6.
Was playing with the standings trying to visualize how we could get up to fourth. Basically, as far as CRT is concerned, we'd have to win 2 and they would have to lose out. Given that we're on a 2-4 tear, it got me to looking at who is nibbling at our heels. Even if we win 2, it isn't impossible that one of the 7-8 teams (SHU, SJU, and Xav could win out and be sitting at 11-8. In that scenario, they could be tied with MU and CRT. We have the edge against the Hall, and CRT has it on us. If Xav is the team to do it, we'dd need PC to fall behind Nova. MU vs. SJU head-to-head is TBD.
So a Wed. MSG game is not yet definitively ruled out. If we only win one more CRT can't be caught
and we're in the same situation with the others as above, but they'd only have to win 3, and if one of them does win out, we're on in NYC for Wed.
The solution is simple - win out!
I feel like Creighton on Thursday is a near certainty. Considering we got them short-handed and coming off a brutal stretch of games and still couldn't beat them Sunday, I don't like our chances in that one. Their pick and roll defense is too good. Any team that can render Kolek unplayable is going to be tough for us to deal with.
Quote from: brewcity77 on February 23, 2022, 08:40:39 AM
I feel like Creighton on Thursday is a near certainty. Considering we got them short-handed and coming off a brutal stretch of games and still couldn't beat them Sunday, I don't like our chances in that one. Their pick and roll defense is too good. Any team that can render Kolek unplayable is going to be tough for us to deal with.
...and Stevie Mitchell is not a one game solution, at least not against CU.
Quote from: brewcity77 on February 23, 2022, 08:40:39 AM
I feel like Creighton on Thursday is a near certainty. Considering we got them short-handed and coming off a brutal stretch of games and still couldn't beat them Sunday, I don't like our chances in that one. Their pick and roll defense is too good. Any team that can render Kolek unplayable is going to be tough for us to deal with.
MU just went into their gym and scored 82. We can keep banging on about their PNR defense, but that wasn't the issue Sunday.
If MU doesn't get their own house in order defensively, they'll be playing Wednesday night.
Quote from: MUfan12 on February 23, 2022, 09:12:26 AM
MU just went into their gym and scored 82. We can keep banging on about their PNR defense, but that wasn't the issue Sunday.
If MU doesn't get their own house in order defensively, they'll be playing Wednesday night.
They effectively changed the way we play in the half court. Even though Morsell dominated, not letting our facilitator get into the rhythm of the game and thusly play down the stretch, came back to bite us.
I'd argue the fouls took Kolek out of the flow of the game more than Creighton's defense.
Agree to disagree, but I'm not worried about the offense at this point. They'll find ways to score. It's the defense that has killed them this month.
Quote from: MUfan12 on February 23, 2022, 09:37:43 AM
I'd argue the fouls took Kolek out of the flow of the game more than Creighton's defense.
Agree to disagree, but I'm not worried about the offense at this point. They'll find ways to score. It's the defense that has killed them this month.
Fair enough-either way he was out of the rhythm of the game and apparently wasn't comfortable enough to play down the stretch 🤷🏻♂️
Quote from: brewcity77 on February 23, 2022, 08:40:39 AM
I feel like Creighton on Thursday is a near certainty. Considering we got them short-handed and coming off a brutal stretch of games and still couldn't beat them Sunday, I don't like our chances in that one. Their pick and roll defense is too good. Any team that can render Kolek unplayable is going to be tough for us to deal with.
Eh, we've played two one-possession games against them and gave away both. In the last one, they threw in 10 prayers at the shot-clock buzzer. I'll call it pretty much even-steven, and say we're due!
Quote from: brewcity77 on February 23, 2022, 08:40:39 AM
I feel like Creighton on Thursday is a near certainty. Considering we got them short-handed and coming off a brutal stretch of games and still couldn't beat them Sunday, I don't like our chances in that one. Their pick and roll defense is too good. Any team that can render Kolek unplayable is going to be tough for us to deal with.
Posted this in another thread, but also relevant here:
Ran through some scenarios using T-Rank's projected scores. If the favored team wins (obviously won't happen all the way thru), final standings would be as follows:
PC 14-3
Nova 16-4
UCONN 14-5
Marquette 12-7
Creighton 11-8
SJU 10-9
Seton Hall 9-9
Xavier 9-10
Butler 6-14
Depaul 4-16
Gtown 0-20
Worst case scenario SJU wins out including beating MU at home (which isn't impossible vs. CU, @DP, vs. X, @MU), and Creighton wins more than 1 game rest of the way in their gauntlet (@SJU, @PC, vs. UCONN, vs. Hall), I believe MU slides down to the 6 seed at 11-8 losing the three way tie breaker with Creighton and SJU at 0-3.
I believe all other realistic scenarios of MU winning 2/3 we still get the bye.
Moral of story: root for Creighton to beat SJU tonight. And then in general root against those 2 the rest of the way (not that rooting matters!). Also, if MU just takes care of business and wins the games they're supposed to win (all of them rest of the way), should wrap up the 4 seed and face Creighton Thursday in NYC.
Brew is right that their ability to shut down Kolek makes them a bad matchup...but MUFan12 is correct that Shaka adjusted and found a way to beat their defense handily. It was our defense that was the problem, and has been a problem for the past 4 games. We've only given up 80+ points in 5 games this season, all losses. 3/5 of those have come in the last 4 games and the 4th game was to Georgetown.
Quote from: MUfan12 on February 23, 2022, 09:12:26 AM
MU just went into their gym and scored 82. We can keep banging on about their PNR defense, but that wasn't the issue Sunday.
If MU doesn't get their own house in order defensively, they'll be playing Wednesday night.
We had 8 assists on 35 made baskets and our PG played a season low in minutes. They completely changed how our offense functions. They were also missing a starter and playing their 4th game in 9 days, which should have given us even more of an advantage, at full strength and better rested. They're a bad matchup for us.
Can we beat Creighton? Sure. Almost did twice. But I would have much rather seen Xavier or Seton Hall as the lead-in to a rubber match with Providence.
I'm fine with anybody but UConn.
Let's just win these 3 effen games. I think we will.
Quote from: MuggsyB on February 20, 2022, 08:40:27 PM
I think we win out. In fact I would be shocked if we didn't.
Prepare to be electrocuted, Muggsy
I am fine with any team we play in the BE tourney or NCAA.
Quote from: Goose on February 23, 2022, 11:29:59 AM
I am fine with any team we play in the BE tourney or NCAA.
Yeah, I'll amend mine to that too. And it's not like we get a choice!
Between CRT and the 'Dence I don't even know who our BE foes are anymore.
For anyone looking for a little positivity as we head into a little bit of a stressful stretch of MU Hoops I urge you to go back to YouTube and watch the mini series WhoWeAre.
I just watched all 8 episodes (theres another coming out soon) and it was really cool to see how far this team has come since day 1. https://youtu.be/leEMw5KsQNQ
Not only that but it is cool to see this guys having fun off the court as well. Fun team that has come a long way and deserves the fans full attention the rest of the way.
Quote from: rocky_warrior on February 23, 2022, 01:03:55 PM
Between CRT and the 'Dence I don't even know who our BE foes are anymore.
When did Critical Race Theory join the Big East?
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on February 23, 2022, 01:42:45 PM
When did Critical Race Theory join the Big East?
I can't believe no one here attended that school board meeting.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on February 23, 2022, 01:42:45 PM
When did Critical Race Theory join the Big East?
It's been here all along, as Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, Seton Hall, DePaul, Creighton, Xavier, and St. John's all have law schools, which is pretty much the only place it's taught.
Quote from: mileskishnish72 on February 23, 2022, 08:25:59 AM
In that scenario, they could be tied with MU and CRT. We have the edge against the Hall, and CRT has it on us. If Xav is the team to do it, we'dd need PC to fall behind Nova. MU vs. SJU head-to-head is TBD.
While we're at it. I guess I'm confused by the Timbiqui Airport reference too.
(https://giffiles.alphacoders.com/141/14168.gif)
Quote from: mileskishnish72 on February 23, 2022, 08:25:59 AM
Was playing with the standings trying to visualize how we could get up to fourth. Basically, as far as CRT is concerned, we'd have to win 2 and they would have to lose out. Given that we're on a 2-4 tear, it got me to looking at who is nibbling at our heels. Even if we win 2, it isn't impossible that one of the 7-8 teams (SHU, SJU, and Xav could win out and be sitting at 11-8. In that scenario, they could be tied with MU and CRT. We have the edge against the Hall, and CRT has it on us. If Xav is the team to do it, we'dd need PC to fall behind Nova. MU vs. SJU head-to-head is TBD.
So a Wed. MSG game is not yet definitively ruled out. If we only win one more CRT can't be caught
and we're in the same situation with the others as above, but they'd only have to win 3, and if one of them does win out, we're on in NYC for Wed.
The solution is simple - win out!
Thankfully both X and Hall cannot win out; they play each out on Saturday. Here are their remaining schedules:
X: @PC, vs. Hall, @ SJU, vs. Gtown.
Hall: vs. Butler, @X, vs. Gtown, @ Creighton
X's schedule is tougher than Halls, for sure. I guess I could see Hall possibility winning out.
The one I am more concerned about passing us (at least for bye purposes) is St. Johns. @ Creighton, @ Depaul, vs. X, and @MU is their remaining schedule. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them win the first three. If we go 1-1 in the next 2 games, we could be playing SJU for the bye a week from Sat.
Of course, as you said, MU is in control of their own destiny. Just win the next three.
On the flip side, I'd love to see the BE get 7 teams in. Sh*t, maybe even 8 if SJU somehow gets to 11-8. But X, Hall, Creighton and SJU all losing definitely helps MU in the standings.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on February 23, 2022, 01:42:45 PM
When did Critical Race Theory join the Big East?
Connecticut
Road and
Transit College
CRT = Cretin Bluejays
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on February 23, 2022, 10:24:18 AM
Moral of story: root for Creighton to beat SJU tonight. And then in general root against those 2 the rest of the way (not that rooting matters!). Also, if MU just takes care of business and wins the games they're supposed to win (all of them rest of the way), should wrap up the 4 seed and face Creighton Thursday in NYC.
Correct. I share your fear the SJU is the 4-0 threat. I'm also rooting tonight for Butler and find myself in the unenviable position of rooting for Prov tonight.
The sooner the 7-8 group gets losses, the better. 4th vs. 5th - no matta, it's 6th we don't want.
The two worse threats lost tonight, so good night for MU.
Quote from: mileskishnish72 on February 23, 2022, 09:58:04 PM
The two worse threats lost tonight, so good night for MU.
And SH loses out if we tie due to our sweep of them. Yep- a good night.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on February 23, 2022, 10:24:18 AM
Posted this in another thread, but also relevant here:
Ran through some scenarios using T-Rank's projected scores. If the favored team wins (obviously won't happen all the way thru), final standings would be as follows:
PC 14-3
Nova 16-4
UCONN 14-5
Marquette 12-7
Creighton 11-8
SJU 10-9
Seton Hall 9-9
Xavier 9-10
Butler 6-14
Depaul 4-16
Gtown 0-20
Worst case scenario SJU wins out including beating MU at home (which isn't impossible vs. CU, @DP, vs. X, @MU), and Creighton wins more than 1 game rest of the way in their gauntlet (@SJU, @PC, vs. UCONN, vs. Hall), I believe MU slides down to the 6 seed at 11-8 losing the three way tie breaker with Creighton and SJU at 0-3.
I believe all other realistic scenarios of MU winning 2/3 we still get the bye.
Moral of story: root for Creighton to beat SJU tonight. And then in general root against those 2 the rest of the way (not that rooting matters!). Also, if MU just takes care of business and wins the games they're supposed to win (all of them rest of the way), should wrap up the 4 seed and face Creighton Thursday in NYC.
Updated projected standings with last night's results:
PC 14-3
Nova 16-4
UCONN 14-5
Creighton 12-7
Marquette 12-7
Seton Hall 9-9
SJU 9-10
Xavier 9-10
Butler 6-14
Depaul 4-16
Gtown 0-20
Creighton's projected 12-7 looks fragile after Nembhard's broken wrist.
Quote from: BrewCity83 on February 24, 2022, 12:04:39 PM
Creighton's projected 12-7 looks fragile after Nembhard's broken wrist.
Perhaps. Not an easy finish for the Bluejays. @PC, vs. UCONN and vs. Hall. Could definitely see 0-3. If Hall beats them and goes 3-0 (@X, vs. Gtown, @ Creighton), that would flip Seton Hall to the 6 seed and Creighton to the 7. Me thinks I'd rather play Creighton shorthanded than a Seton Hall team that sure hates our guts, so we should probably root for Creighton to win one of those games.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on February 24, 2022, 01:12:19 PM
Perhaps. Not an easy finish for the Bluejays. @PC, vs. UCONN and vs. Hall. Could definitely see 0-3. If Hall beats them and goes 3-0 (@X, vs. Gtown, @ Creighton), that would flip Seton Hall to the 6 seed and Creighton to the 7. Me thinks I'd rather play Creighton shorthanded than a Seton Hall team that sure hates our guts, so we should probably root for Creighton to win one of those games.
Remember the rule that you can't beat a team 3 times, this we want CRT and not SH.
With today's win (for which no style points will be awarded) MU moved a big step closer to locking up the 5 seed in the BET. A win over DePaul would take care of it, even if either Seton Hall or SJU wins out.
I also think that MU can now be declared a lock for the NCAA. I was holding out until they reached a point where even losing out wouldn't be enough to drop them out. They have pretty much lowered their ceiling for an NCAA bid to a 6 or so unless they beat a couple of tourney caliber teams in the BET.
I really want MU to wrap up the BET 5 seed to remove the scenario where they would be playing a "no win situation" game against Georgetown and then have to play someone like UConn the next day.