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MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 02, 2019, 01:00:34 AM

Title: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 02, 2019, 01:00:34 AM
https://painttouches.com/2019/03/02/2019-tsw-viewing-guide/

The last couple of years, PT has put out a "Team Bubble Watch Viewing Guide" to quickly identify the games that impact Marquette's NCAA chances. This season we happily have put TBW on the shelf in exchange for Team Seed Watch. We'll be updating daily until selection Sunday to point out the games that matter to Marquette seed come selection Sunday.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: fjm on March 02, 2019, 01:11:00 AM
https://painttouches.com/2019/03/02/2019-tsw-viewing-guide/

The last couple of years, PT has put out a "Team Bubble Watch Viewing Guide" to quickly identify the games that impact Marquette's NCAA chances. This season we happily have put TBW on the shelf in exchange for Team Seed Watch. We'll be updating daily until selection Sunday to point out the games that matter to Marquette seed come selection Sunday.

Really awesome! Thanks for putting this together.

I am going to root for Penn state vs Wisconsin and also rooting for Butler vs Nova.

Otherwise I’m with ya on the rest.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: We R Final Four on March 02, 2019, 08:52:15 AM
Really awesome! Thanks for putting this together.

I am going to root for Penn state vs Wisconsin and also rooting for Butler vs Nova.

Otherwise I’m with ya on the rest.
+1. At this point I want Nova to lose. I understand that this may have a slight effect in NET or Quad victories, but I think the BEast title is the immediate goal.
And I don’t cheer for Bucky.  I can’t do it.
I don’t have the ability to shut off my dislike for them and root for a victory, even for a game. Not in my makeup.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on March 02, 2019, 09:02:24 AM
Thanks guys.  I might add that MUs blogging and podcast community is outstanding.  For those of us who like to geek out, enjoy the provocative, and just basketball jones it, we should appreciate all their efforts.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: marqfan22 on March 02, 2019, 11:53:34 AM
This is great!

Thank you TAMU.

I'll be cheering for Butler. I'd rather have a lower NCAA seed, but a conference title.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 02, 2019, 11:30:07 PM
https://painttouches.com/2019/03/02/2019-tsw-viewing-guide/

Today was an alright day with 12/25 results going our way. Unfortunately, most of the 12 were the lower impact games that don't matter as much. Best results for us were Nevada, Michigan State, and Houston all going down. LSU, Kansas, and Florida State won by the skin of their teeth, would have been nice to have those .

Not a lot of games tomorrow but obviously a big one. Michigan and Maryland also could have big implications
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: MU82 on March 02, 2019, 11:39:54 PM
Spectacular stuff, TAMU.

Thanks for doing the work. Then again, for what we pay you, it's the least you can do.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 04, 2019, 08:08:28 AM
https://painttouches.com/2019/03/02/2019-tsw-viewing-guide/

The tone of the guide has changed from "how to get a 2-seed" to "how to stay a protected seed" after yesterday's debacle. Only two games to watch tonight, a pair of Big 12 matchups at 8 pm.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on March 04, 2019, 09:14:05 AM
https://painttouches.com/2019/03/02/2019-tsw-viewing-guide/

The tone of the guide has changed from "how to get a 2-seed" to "how to stay a protected seed" after yesterday's debacle. Only two games to watch tonight, a pair of Big 12 matchups at 8 pm.

At this point,  the only outcomes to worry about are Marquette games.  Take care of business and Marquette will be a 4 seed.

A 3 seed would require Marquette to win the next two plus BET.  Seems pretty cut and dried.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 04, 2019, 11:03:02 AM
At this point,  the only outcomes to worry about are Marquette games.  Take care of business and Marquette will be a 4 seed.

A 3 seed would require Marquette to win the next two plus BET.  Seems pretty cut and dried.

MU does not need to win the BET to get a 3 seed
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on March 04, 2019, 11:52:26 AM
MU does not need to win the BET to get a 3 seed

I guess 4-1  gives Marquette an outside shot at a 3 but it would require quite a bit of help.  Either way,  Marquette needs to win a lot.

Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 04, 2019, 01:00:12 PM
I guess 4-1  gives Marquette an outside shot at a 3 but it would require quite a bit of help.  Either way,  Marquette needs to win a lot.

Unless you think all of the teams in front of us are going to do better than 4-1, it's not an outside shot.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on March 04, 2019, 01:52:05 PM
Unless you think all of the teams in front of us are going to do better than 4-1, it's not an outside shot.

I still think Marquette is 14th on the S-curve.  But even going 4-1 means teams have to lose 2 or 3 games for Marquette to pass them.

Marquette's 4-1 won't be as good as other teams 4-1.  I think LSU and Purdue would stay ahead of Marquette at 3-1 or 3-2.  Computer numbers and marquee wins work in their favor, not Marquette's.

That leaves a very small window to get the last 3 seed.  Texas Tech and Kansas would both need to lose before the Big 12 tournament final, plus one other loss each.  And that's just to make to committee debate the last 3 seed.  Like I said, a small window.

Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 04, 2019, 02:11:10 PM
I still think Marquette is 14th on the S-curve.  But even going 4-1 means teams have to lose 2 or 3 games for Marquette to pass them.

Marquette's 4-1 won't be as good as other teams 4-1.  I think LSU and Purdue would stay ahead of Marquette at 3-1 or 3-2.  Computer numbers and marquee wins work in their favor, not Marquette's.

That leaves a very small window to get the last 3 seed.  Texas Tech and Kansas would both need to lose before the Big 12 tournament final, plus one other loss each.  And that's just to make to committee debate the last 3 seed.  Like I said, a small window.

I guess I just disagree with your definition of a small window. I don't think moving up 2 spots on the s-curve is a small window. I think we need to be one game better than two of the teams in front of us. Houston we probably only need to be a half game better than.

Regardless, this is why we're doing the viewing guide. Cause other results have the potential to impact Marquette's seed positively or negatively.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on March 04, 2019, 02:26:32 PM
I don't agree with your analysis. I don't think moving up 2 spots on the s-curve is a small window. I think we need to be one game better than two of the teams in front of us. Houston we probably only need to be a half game better than.

I think Marquette is 1.5 games behind the 3 seed line.  It seems you and I differ on the size of the gap by 1 game. 
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 05, 2019, 08:18:41 AM
https://painttouches.com/2019/03/02/2019-tsw-viewing-guide/

Quiet day yesterday as both games went against what we were hoping for. Much busier night tonight with 9 meaningful games on tap.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: MU82 on March 05, 2019, 09:28:07 AM
https://painttouches.com/2019/03/02/2019-tsw-viewing-guide/

Quiet day yesterday as both games went against what we were hoping for. Much busier night tonight with 9 meaningful games on tap.

Yeah, neither of the teams we wanted to win put up much resistance. Surprising to see a You Know Who-coached Texas team perform so poorly!
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: palellama on March 05, 2019, 04:33:32 PM
I think tonight's guide is missing cheering for Oklahoma over Kansas (unless I missed it).
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: GooooMarquette on March 05, 2019, 04:45:27 PM
Yeah, neither of the teams we wanted to win put up much resistance. Surprising to see a You Know Who-coached Texas team perform so poorly!

You can use his name: #donedeal Smart.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: UWW2MU on March 05, 2019, 05:30:25 PM
https://painttouches.com/2019/03/02/2019-tsw-viewing-guide/

Quiet day yesterday as both games went against what we were hoping for. Much busier night tonight with 9 meaningful games on tap.

Appreciate these breakdowns.  I mostly agree with the assessments so far.

One small suggestion, if you're open to it, is improving the way the results are listed.  Right now takes too much looking back and forth, figuring out what loses/wins means for the results, etc.   Would help if it was a bit clearer.

Thanks for doing this!
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: We R Final Four on March 05, 2019, 06:59:03 PM
I’ve been following these games since this was first posted and....it seems we can’t catch a break. Frustrating.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: MUBigDance on March 05, 2019, 07:47:23 PM
I’ve been following these games since this was first posted and....it seems we can’t catch a break. Frustrating.

Agree, now it’s all about MU WINNING and avoiding the fall. It used to be winning and other games gives us a 2...Now it’s all about what we do. Win out and win BET and I think we get the 3 regardless. Only 1 more loss and a 4. Everything else is a 5.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 05, 2019, 08:41:05 PM
I think tonight's guide is missing cheering for Oklahoma over Kansas (unless I missed it).

Wow. Thank you for pointing that out. Management regrets the mistake. I went in and edited the post.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 05, 2019, 08:43:05 PM
Appreciate these breakdowns.  I mostly agree with the assessments so far.

One small suggestion, if you're open to it, is improving the way the results are listed.  Right now takes too much looking back and forth, figuring out what loses/wins means for the results, etc.   Would help if it was a bit clearer.

Thanks for doing this!

Always open to feedback. I'm having a hard time visualizing what you are saying. Are you suggesting that once the day is over we get rid of the old games and instead condense them into a summary of how the day went?
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 05, 2019, 08:50:08 PM
I’ve been following these games since this was first posted and....it seems we can’t catch a break. Frustrating.

It doesn’t really matter.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 05, 2019, 08:57:07 PM
It doesn’t really matter.

How the teams around us on the s-curve do doesn't matter?
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: JakeBarnes on March 05, 2019, 09:11:43 PM
I’ve been following these games since this was first posted and....it seems we can’t catch a break. Frustrating.

Purdue just went down.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 05, 2019, 09:26:34 PM
Purdue just went down.

Kansas is also down 19 midway through the second.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 05, 2019, 09:31:14 PM
How the teams around us on the s-curve do doesn't matter?

MU is either a 3,4 or 5 seed. Where they end up being seeded has much more to do with how the next 2 games and the BET go than the results of teams you expect to be around them on the S curve.

Obviously teams around them losing should help for seeding all things being considered. But MU is fine and stressing the results of other 3-5 seed brethren isn’t overly important to where MU lands seedwise, in my opinion. MU winning or losing their remaining games is going to determine their seed.

Certainly not an attack on you - the guide is a nice resource. I just don’t think, IMO, MU needs to be “catching breaks” for seeding this season like the post I responded to said.   
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: MU82 on March 05, 2019, 09:39:24 PM
Purdue just went down.

That's impossible.

How could Purdue miss all of those FTs? How could Edwards play so poorly? Didn't they know what was at stake?

A team with a conference title on the line can't possibly lose to an inferior team!
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 05, 2019, 09:44:50 PM
MU is either a 3,4 or 5 seed. Where they end up being seeded has much more to do with how the next 2 games and the BET go than the results of teams you expect to be around them on the S curve.

Obviously teams around them losing should help for seeding all things being considered. But MU is fine and stressing the results of other 3-5 seed brethren isn’t overly important to where MU lands seedwise, in my opinion. MU winning or losing their remaining games is going to determine their seed.

Certainly not an attack on you - the guide is a nice resource. I just don’t think, IMO, MU needs to be “catching breaks” for seeding this season like the post I responded to said.   

I just see it differently. If we don't catch breaks, we won't be a 3 seed, regardless of how we do. If we drop a game but catch some breaks we could keep a 4 seed. If we win and catch a ton of breaks we could even sneak into a 2 seed though that may be impossible after tonight.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: We R Final Four on March 05, 2019, 09:54:18 PM
Purdue just went down.
Things are looking up!
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: JakeBarnes on March 05, 2019, 10:05:17 PM
Kansas loses uglier than we did. Wasnt even close.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: MU82 on March 05, 2019, 10:09:47 PM
Kansas loses uglier than we did. Wasnt even close.

Yeah, another team that must not have known what was on the line. If you're a ranked team and you lose to an unranked team, what a bunch of losers you must be!
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on March 05, 2019, 10:12:18 PM
Kansas loses uglier than we did. Wasnt even close.

Glad MU cooled on Grimes.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: We R Final Four on March 06, 2019, 06:56:10 AM
MU is either a 3,4 or 5 seed. Where they end up being seeded has much more to do with how the next 2 games and the BET go than the results of teams you expect to be around them on the S curve.

Obviously teams around them losing should help for seeding all things being considered. But MU is fine and stressing the results of other 3-5 seed brethren isn’t overly important to where MU lands seedwise, in my opinion. MU winning or losing their remaining games is going to determine their seed.

Certainly not an attack on you - the guide is a nice resource. I just don’t think, IMO, MU needs to be “catching breaks” for seeding this season like the post I responded to said.   
So it doesn’t matter or it isn’t overly important? Those are two different positions to take.
Unlike you, I think that there is a large difference between a 3 or a 5 seed.
I Agree, we need to win the games in front of us. However, as TAMU has pointed out, and is recognized elsewhere.......we may need some help from those on the S-curve in front of us to lose. I want those teams to lose, so I’m watching the final scores of the games Tamu provided.
So I guess to me in matters.
You may be one of those guys who turns on selection Sunday as says “if you told me at the start of the season we would be a 5 seed, I’d take it.”
I’m cheering and hoping for a 3 seed so I’m watching.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 06, 2019, 09:11:00 AM
So it doesn’t matter or it isn’t overly important? Those are two different positions to take.
Unlike you, I think that there is a large difference between a 3 or a 5 seed.
I Agree, we need to win the games in front of us. However, as TAMU has pointed out, and is recognized elsewhere.......we may need some help from those on the S-curve in front of us to lose. I want those teams to lose, so I’m watching the final scores of the games Tamu provided.
So I guess to me in matters.
You may be one of those guys who turns on selection Sunday as says “if you told me at the start of the season we would be a 5 seed, I’d take it.”
I’m cheering and hoping for a 3 seed so I’m watching.

Lol, Of course I prefer a 3 seed to a 5 seed. That’s not what I am saying.

What I am saying is what really matters is how Marquette plays in their final 5 games.

If they go 5-0, they’re a 3.

If they go 4-1, they have a good shot at a 3 but likely a 4.

If they lose 2 or more, they’re probably a 5. Maybe a small shot at a 4 with a loss tonight and loss against Nova in BET final, but likely s 5.

I just think it’s that simple at this point.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: UWW2MU on March 06, 2019, 10:50:27 AM
Always open to feedback. I'm having a hard time visualizing what you are saying. Are you suggesting that once the day is over we get rid of the old games and instead condense them into a summary of how the day went?

I didn't have anything specific in mind at the time.  But maybe a strike through on the top line of the game info if it didn't go our way, a special symbol for whether it was a good or bad outcome, or a red/green on the results.

As seen below:


Creighton at Marquette
2:00 PM CT
FS1
Line: MARQ -7.5
Why?: Obviously the most important game being played tomorrow for Marquette’s tournament chances. The Golden Eagles prevailed in overtime on the road and are heavily favored at the Fiserv.
Marquette loses 66-60

Or:

Creighton at Marquette
2:00 PM CT
FS1
Line: MARQ -7.5
Why?: Obviously the most important game being played tomorrow for Marquette’s tournament chances. The Golden Eagles prevailed in overtime on the road and are heavily favored at the Fiserv.
--- Marquette loses 66-60   (vs. +++ if it went our way)

Or:

Creighton at Marquette
2:00 PM CT
FS1
Line: MARQ -7.5
Why?: Obviously the most important game being played tomorrow for Marquette’s tournament chances. The Golden Eagles prevailed in overtime on the road and are heavily favored at the Fiserv.
Marquette loses 66-60    (vs. green if it went our way)
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 06, 2019, 10:58:46 AM
Gotcha UWW, I already did the update for today but maybe I'll try something for tomorrow. I did have something but it was kind of small. If the comment said "X team won" that means it went in our favor. If the comment said "X team lost" it means it went against us. But that's certainly not obvious.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 06, 2019, 11:01:02 AM
If they go 5-0, they’re a 3.

If they go 4-1, they have a good shot at a 3 but likely a 4.

If they lose 2 or more, they’re probably a 5. Maybe a small shot at a 4 with a loss tonight and loss against Nova in BET final, but likely s 5.

I just think it’s that simple at this point.

This is where we disagree. We could go 5-0 and still be a 4 seed if the right teams win. We could go 0-3 and still be a 4-seed if the right teams lose. While how we do is the most important thing, it doesn't happen in a vacuum.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 06, 2019, 11:07:40 AM
https://painttouches.com/2019/03/02/2019-tsw-viewing-guide/

Really good results last night with 7/10 going in our favor. Purdue and Kansas losing were huge for our 3-seed chances. Win tonight and we definitely hop over Kansas on the s-curve. A win may be enough to get over Purdue, if not, it puts us right there with them.

10 more games tonight, most of them on the low importance end. Marquette playing is obviously huge and the other result to watch is LSU at Florida. If both go our way it's possible that we hop over LSU. If we don't pass them, there's at very least a tangled mess between MU/LSU/Houston/Purdue that will be hard to sort out. 3 would get 3-seeds, 1 would get the top 4-seed.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: We R Final Four on March 06, 2019, 11:17:17 AM
Lol, Of course I prefer a 3 seed to a 5 seed. That’s not what I am saying.

What I am saying is what really matters is how Marquette plays in their final 5 games.

If they go 5-0, they’re a 3.

If they go 4-1, they have a good shot at a 3 but likely a 4.

If they lose 2 or more, they’re probably a 5. Maybe a small shot at a 4 with a loss tonight and loss against Nova in BET final, but likely s 5.

I just think it’s that simple at this point.
If you believe that we are approximately #14–in the middle of the 4 seeds, then we need to leapfrog a few teams in front of us to get on the 3 line.  If we go 5-0 and so do the teams directly in front of us,  we probably don’t leapfrog them. If we go 4-1 and so do they teams in front of us...how do we pass these teams to get into the 3 seed?
So, the only way we can jump them is by keeping an eye on how we would....AND how the teams in front of us perform.
Similarly, if we go 4-1 or 3-2, I’ll be watching to see if the teams directly behind us go 5-0 or 4-1. So it does matter for that.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: UWW2MU on March 06, 2019, 11:27:11 AM
https://painttouches.com/2019/03/02/2019-tsw-viewing-guide/

Really good results last night with 7/10 going in our favor. Purdue and Kansas losing were huge for our 3-seed chances. Win tonight and we definitely hop over Kansas on the s-curve. A win may be enough to get over Purdue, if not, it puts us right there with them.

10 more games tonight, most of them on the low importance end. Marquette playing is obviously huge and the other result to watch is LSU at Florida. If both go our way it's possible that we hop over LSU. If we don't pass them, there's at very least a tangled mess between MU/LSU/Houston/Purdue that will be hard to sort out. 3 would get 3-seeds, 1 would get the top 4-seed.

I'm not sure about these.  When you look at averages of brackets on bracketmatrix, there's a big jump from Kansas to MU and even bigger for LSU to MU.  Can those 1 losses make that +1 jump?   (not that bracketmatrix is gospel)
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 06, 2019, 11:51:38 AM
I'm not sure about these.  When you look at averages of brackets on bracketmatrix, there's a big jump from Kansas to MU and even bigger for LSU to MU.  Can those 1 losses make that +1 jump?   (not that bracketmatrix is gospel)

While bracketmatrix is good for a general snapshot, its a little too reactionary for my taste. I've been using my own s-curve that I created after the bracket reveal.

I'm pretty confident that if Marquette wins, they will pass Kansas on the S-Curve. Kansas was only two spots ahead of Marquette and since then has lost 3 games by an average of 16.3 points. Marquette has lost only twice by must closer margins, though the home loss to Creighton was worse than any of Kansas' 3 losses. Assuming Marquette beats Seton Hall, their 5 wins would also be better than Kansas' 5 wins in the same stretch.

Passing LSU I'm a lot less sure about. They were somewhere between 6-8 spots behind Marquette in the bracket reveal but has since made up that ground and some by getting big wins at Kentucky, vs Tennessee, vs. Auburn, and at Mississippi State. Their home loss to Florida is also better than our home loss to Creighton by a little bit. They've been unquestionably better than Marquette since the bracket reveal but only the committee knows how big of gap there was between #12 Marquette and #18-#20 LSU. Honestly, I don't think a win/loss gets Marquette above LSU tonight, which is why I only said it was possible.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 06, 2019, 01:27:02 PM
This is where we disagree. We could go 5-0 and still be a 4 seed if the right teams win. We could go 0-3 and still be a 4-seed if the right teams lose. While how we do is the most important thing, it doesn't happen in a vacuum.

IMO, there is a zero percent chance this team isn't at least a 3 seed if they win out.  ZERO.  Happy to put any amount of wager on that.   

But carry on.  Just felt I should tell the guy stressing about the results of relatively random ACC, B12 or insert whatever conference game on a Tuesday night.  These results, again IMO, are not nearly as important as say other bubble teams losing for fellow bubble teams. 
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: MU82 on March 06, 2019, 01:29:11 PM
I was watching the Kentucky-LSU game and loved it when LSU won. I wasn't thinking, "Wait ... how might this affect our NCAA seeding?" It's weird how all of this stuff can change the way we view games.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 06, 2019, 01:36:52 PM
Another thing to keep in mind in regards to seeding in the 3-5 range.

There are 5 ACC teams in the top 16 of the S curve (likely to get 8 overall bids).

There are are 4 B10 teams in the top 17 of the S curve (likely to get 8 overall bids).

There are 4 B12 teams in the top 19 of the S curve (likely to get 8 overall bids) .

There are 4 SEC teams in the top 20 in the S curve (likely to get 8 overall bids) .

MU has a fairly decent chance to be bumped a seed line one way or the other to try and avoid same-conference teams in regions.  That could end up affecting our seeding more than the results of a Va Tech-FL State game, or Miss St.-Tenn game, or a Kansas-Oklahoma game, etc.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: barfolomew on March 06, 2019, 02:44:46 PM
IMO, there is a zero percent chance this team isn't at least a 3 seed if they win out.  ZERO.  Happy to put any amount of wager on that.   

(https://y.yarn.co/d88fcda4-a451-4ec2-9f3c-709d84d53277_text.gif)
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: We R Final Four on March 06, 2019, 02:45:12 PM
IMO, there is a zero percent chance this team isn't at least a 3 seed if they win out.  ZERO.  Happy to put any amount of wager on that.   

But carry on.  Just felt I should tell the guy stressing about the results of relatively random ACC, B12 or insert whatever conference game on a Tuesday night.  These results, again IMO, are not nearly as important as say other bubble teams losing for fellow bubble teams.
Not stressing at all. Enjoying the ride.
Again, your MU scenario is not exclusive.
If we win out.......and the 3 teams that are directly in front of us also win out......how do we jump them?
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 06, 2019, 03:04:48 PM
Not stressing at all. Enjoying the ride.
Again, your MU scenario is not exclusive.
If we win out.......and the 3 teams that are directly in front of us also win out......how do we jump them?

The teams right in front of us or behind us besides Houston play in the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and B12, so its going to be hard for them all to win out.  They're going to play each other. 
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: UWW2MU on March 06, 2019, 03:14:44 PM
IMO, there is a zero percent chance this team isn't at least a 3 seed if they win out.  ZERO.  Happy to put any amount of wager on that.   

But carry on.  Just felt I should tell the guy stressing about the results of relatively random ACC, B12 or insert whatever conference game on a Tuesday night.  These results, again IMO, are not nearly as important as say other bubble teams losing for fellow bubble teams.

I don't think anyone is stressing out (I don't think?).  This stuff is FUN.   If you don't care, cool then let us enjoy it without pooping on our parade.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: We R Final Four on March 06, 2019, 03:32:59 PM
LSU
PUR
HOU
KU
FSU
NEV
All in different conferences. If these teams all win out.....like us.......there is more than a ZERO percent chance of MU not landing on the 3 line. It certainly can happen. Additionally, if KSU (beats TT AND KU for example) or VT (beats Duke/Virg/UNC) in their respective tournaments, their 5 wins (or # of remaining games) will be stronger than our 5 wins.
What teams do who are close to us does matter.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: BM1090 on March 06, 2019, 03:45:44 PM
LSU
PUR
HOU
KU
FSU
NEV
All in different conferences. If these teams all win out.....like us.......there is more than a ZERO percent chance of MU not landing on the 3 line. It certainly can happen. Additionally, if KSU (beats TT AND KU for example) or VT (beats Duke/Virg/UNC) in their respective tournaments, their 5 wins (or # of remaining games) will be stronger than our 5 wins.
What teams do who are close to us does matter.

Nevada isn't getting a 3. Don't disagree much on the rest.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 06, 2019, 05:09:41 PM
The teams right in front of us or behind us besides Houston play in the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and B12, so its going to be hard for them all to win out.  They're going to play each other.

Actually no. None of the teams right in front of us play each other.

The teams that we could pass or be passed by are:

Michigan State
Texas Tech
LSU
Purdue
Houston
Kansas
Florida State
Wisconsin
Virginia Tech
Kansas State

None of those teams play each other in the final games of the regular season. With 1 SEC team, 1 AAC team, 3 B1G teams 3 B12 teams, and 2 ACC teams the tournaments could easily play out so the the teams that matter to us don't play each other until it is too late.

IMO, there is a zero percent chance this team isn't at least a 3 seed if they win out.  ZERO.  Happy to put any amount of wager on that.

You may be right that it happens, but you are wrong about the zero % chance. For example:

Michigan State wins out and loses in the B1GT semifinals
Texas Tech wins out and loses in B12T championship to Kansas
LSU wins out including the SECT
Purdue wins out and loses to Wisconsin in the B1GT championship
Houston wins out including the AACT
Kansas wins out including the B12T
Florida State wins out and loses ACCT championship to Virginia Tech
Wisconsin wins out including the B1GT
Virginia Tech wins out including the ACCT

In that scenario, not only would Marquette not be a 3-seed, there is a chance they could get pushed to a 5-seed depending on the wins different teams picked up in the conference  tournaments. Now this scenario isn't likely, but it is possible, which is why other games matter. And while the above is a worst case scenario, there are several other scenarios where a 5-0 Marquette team gets a 4 seed because the wrong teams ahead of them won as well.

I don't think anyone is stressing out (I don't think?).  This stuff is FUN.   If you don't care, cool then let us enjoy it without pooping on our parade.

But mostly this  ;D
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 06, 2019, 05:40:29 PM
Actually no. None of the teams right in front of us play each other.

The teams that we could pass or be passed by are:

Michigan State
Texas Tech
LSU
Purdue
Houston
Kansas
Florida State
Wisconsin
Virginia Tech
Kansas State

None of those teams play each other in the final games of the regular season. With 1 SEC team, 1 AAC team, 3 B1G teams 3 B12 teams, and 2 ACC teams the tournaments could easily play out so the the teams that matter to us don't play each other until it is too late.

You may be right that it happens, but you are wrong about the zero % chance. For example:

Michigan State wins out and loses in the B1GT semifinals
Texas Tech wins out and loses in B12T championship to Kansas
LSU wins out including the SECT
Purdue wins out and loses to Wisconsin in the B1GT championship
Houston wins out including the AACT
Kansas wins out including the B12T
Florida State wins out and loses ACCT championship to Virginia Tech
Wisconsin wins out including the B1GT
Virginia Tech wins out including the ACCT

In that scenario, not only would Marquette not be a 3-seed, there is a chance they could get pushed to a 5-seed depending on the wins different teams picked up in the conference  tournaments. Now this scenario isn't likely, but it is possible, which is why other games matter. And while the above is a worst case scenario, there are several other scenarios where a 5-0 Marquette team gets a 4 seed because the wrong teams ahead of them won as well.

But mostly this  ;D

1) I was referring to remaining league games + conference tournaments. All those teams can’t win their conference tournaments.

2) sure there are scenarios that MU could win out and get a 4. The odds are long. Still happy to make that wager with anyone. Any result that doesn’t end up with MU winning out through BET is a push.

3) Not to get all wades, but the majority of what matters is MU games. The other results have some bearing on where MU could land obviously, but it’s really not that important. They don’t need other teams to lose to get in. Their seed range is fairly narrow. 

Also not trying to poop on anyone’s parade. I agree this stuff is fun. If people wanna get all excited about LSU-Florida in hopes that an LSU loss may result in MU being a 3 seed, go right ahead! Enjoy the hoops while it lasts, it’ll be over in just a couple weeks! ☹️
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 06, 2019, 06:26:32 PM
3) Not to get all wades, but the majority of what matters is MU games.

There we go. We started with "It really doesn't matter" and got to "The majority of what matters MU games" which I think everyone would agree with.

(http://media2.giphy.com/media/wviWX42iqt0kM/giphy.gif?cid=3640f6095c75e2cb49444c762e33643d)
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 06, 2019, 06:30:36 PM
There we go. We started with "It really doesn't matter" and got to "The majority of what matters MU games" which I think everyone would agree with.

(http://media2.giphy.com/media/wviWX42iqt0kM/giphy.gif?cid=3640f6095c75e2cb49444c762e33643d)

If you want to split hairs, the comment was it doesn’t really matter. As in it matters, but not that much.  ;D 8-) :P