MUScoop

Not that Nova's loss last night really changes anything as we probably still need to beat them to win the regular season title but, if you had to chose, what would you value more - a regular season crown or winning the BET?

For me it's all about what better predicts NCAA success. Going back to 05-06 (because who cares about the BE pre-Marquette) there have been 8 years in which the regular season champ and BET champ were different.

06 BET Syracuse (5 seed, lost 1st round), RSC Nova (1 seed, lost in EE), UConn (1 seed, lost in EE)

08 BET Pitt (4 seed, lost 2nd round), RSC Gtown (2 seed, lost 2nd round)

10 BET WV (2 seed, lost FF), RSC Cuse (1 seed, lost SS)

11 BET UConn (3 seed, National Champs), RSC Pitt (1 seed, lost 2nd round)

12 BET Louisville (4 seed, lost FF), RSC Cuse (1 seed, lost EE)

14 BET Prov (11 seed, lost 1st round), RSC Nova (2 seed, lost 2nd round)

16 BET Hall (6 seed, lost 1st round), RSC Nova (2 seed, national champs).

2010-2012 BET champs had good runs. RSCs that didn't win BET all under-performed to seed expect 2016 Nova. Gotta say slight edge to BET - better to come in hot!

Quote from: 1SE on February 18, 2019, 03:22:29 AM
Not that Nova's loss last night really changes anything as we probably still need to beat them to win the regular season title but, if you had to chose, what would you value more - a regular season crown or winning the BET?

For me it's all about what better predicts NCAA success. Going back to 05-06 (because who cares about the BE pre-Marquette) there have been 8 years in which the regular season champ and BET champ were different.

06 BET Syracuse (5 seed, lost 1st round), RSC Nova (1 seed, lost in EE), UConn (1 seed, lost in EE)

08 BET Pitt (4 seed, lost 2nd round), RSC Gtown (2 seed, lost 2nd round)

10 BET WV (2 seed, lost FF), RSC Cuse (1 seed, lost SS)

11 BET UConn (3 seed, National Champs), RSC Pitt (1 seed, lost 2nd round)

12 BET Louisville (4 seed, lost FF), RSC Cuse (1 seed, lost EE)

14 BET Prov (11 seed, lost 1st round), RSC Nova (2 seed, lost 2nd round)

16 BET Hall (6 seed, lost 1st round), RSC Nova (2 seed, national champs).

2010-2012 BET champs had good runs. RSCs that didn't win BET all under-performed to seed expect 2016 Nova. Gotta say slight edge to BET - better to come in hot!

You forgot 2013 when MU, Georgetown and Louisville were co-champions. MU went on to the elite eight after one of the great NCAA tournament comebacks in the first round.

I think Marquette can win both. I really don't see anyone outside of Marquette or Nova winning the tournament. I know many are high on St. Johns but if I had to be honest I would say that win yesterday for them was more lucky than it was skill. Nova got complacent when they got up by 19. When St. Johns got it close Booth looked like he never shot a basketball before. Not that I think St. Johns isn't a good team but Nova hadn't lost a game up 19 in 5 years, yesterday was just the perfect storm.

Also, a regular season title shows a complete body of work. A 3-4 day tournament without any rest and something that the committee has shown doesn't impact seeding as much as everyone thinks has to come second.

Quote from: HowardsWorld on February 18, 2019, 07:17:26 AM
I think Marquette can win both. I really don't see anyone outside of Marquette or Nova winning the tournament. I know many are high on St. Johns but if I had to be honest I would say that win yesterday for them was more lucky than it was skill. Nova got complacent when they got up by 19. When St. Johns got it close Booth looked like he never shot a basketball before. Not that I think St. Johns isn't a good team but Nova hadn't lost a game up 19 in 5 years, yesterday was just the perfect storm.

Yak yak yak.

For sure winning both and the NCAA tourney is best. But the point is which of the two would you rather have?

Regular season for sure I've never been one who cares much for conference tournaments. Just seems like a little extra money grab before the real tournament

Quote from: 1SE on February 18, 2019, 07:21:22 AM
Yak yak yak.

For sure winning both and the NCAA tourney is best. But the point is which of the two would you rather have?

Regular season, not even a discussion.

Body of work is better than one hot 3-4 day stretch.

Interesting. So people actually care about these outcomes in their own right?

My initial post is certainly an anecdotal sample - but if that's something that is statistical (i.e. teams that win their conference tournament but not regular season title either a) do better in NCAA overall or b) better relative to seed) wouldn't you rather win the thing that better portends NCAA success?

Also, my guess is that winning a conference tourney has some measurable impact on seed. I'd say we're far more likely to be a 2 seed if we win the BET but not the regular season title (i.e. lose at Nova and win out the rest) than if we win at Nova but then fail to win the BET.

Quote from: 1SE on February 18, 2019, 08:02:20 AM
Interesting. So people actually care about these outcomes in their own right?

My initial post is certainly an anecdotal sample - but if that's something that is statistical (i.e. teams that win their conference tournament but not regular season title either a) do better in NCAA overall or b) better relative to seed) wouldn't you rather win the thing that better portends NCAA success?

Also, my guess is that winning a conference tourney has some measurable impact on seed. I'd say we're far more likely to be a 2 seed if we win the BET but not the regular season title (i.e. lose at Nova and win out the rest) than if we win at Nova but then fail to win the BET.

This has been proven false over the last 5 years. If you are boarding the 2/3 line and then 2 losses and you pick up wins over Nova and St. Johns then yes you will likely move up. If you are the last 3 and you have wins of Depaul, Georgetown, and Xavier in the BET thats not going to move you any.

Quote from: 1SE on February 18, 2019, 08:02:20 AM
Interesting. So people actually care about these outcomes in their own right?

My initial post is certainly an anecdotal sample - but if that's something that is statistical (i.e. teams that win their conference tournament but not regular season title either a) do better in NCAA overall or b) better relative to seed) wouldn't you rather win the thing that better portends NCAA success?

Also, my guess is that winning a conference tourney has some measurable impact on seed. I'd say we're far more likely to be a 2 seed if we win the BET but not the regular season title (i.e. lose at Nova and win out the rest) than if we win at Nova but then fail to win the BET.

You are confusing correlation with causation.   There are plenty of anecdotes of teams that lose early in their conference tournaments but go on deep tournament runs.

For example,  2003 champs Syracuse and Final Four Marquette.  Both lost in the quarterfinals of their conference tournaments.

The 2004 Syracuse team that won the BET lost in the first round.

The best of the best usually win both the regular season and conference tournament titles.  Simply put,  the best teams win a lot of games, period.

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/efa0962878857ab3332344f84c41a345/tenor.gif?itemid=3787079)

I've seen MU win the conference regular season. I haven't seen them win the BET. So I want to see them win the BET.

Regular season is definitely worth more. That being said, I have never seen us win a BET and I have a seen a Big East regular season championship so I kinda want to get the BET championship off the bucket list.

But I'm with Chick, let's just win the next 9 games and get both

Quote from: warriorchick on February 18, 2019, 08:22:26 AM

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/efa0962878857ab3332344f84c41a345/tenor.gif?itemid=3787079)

To win both we'll probably have to beat Nova in Philly and New York. I'm not sure what the odds are on that, but certainly no better than .25.

The sample size in the OP is far too limited to "portent" anything.

I'd far, far, far prefer the regular-season championship, which reflects season-long excellence and which usually affects NCAA seeding more than a tournament championship does.

Of course, I'd love to see us win our first BET title, and if we get to the championship game and we lose a close one, I'll be bummed for that moment. But I really won't lose one second of sleep if we don't win the BET, even if we lose our first game. The BET title gives a nice banner to hang, but it means little in the grand scheme IMHO. Just ask Virginia players and coaches.

Personally, I'd trade the BET title for a S16 appearance (or better). Not that it's possible to make such a trade, and not that we can't achieve both, but that's my thinking.

Quote from: Lazar's Headband on February 18, 2019, 08:21:06 AM
You are confusing correlation with causation.   There are plenty of anecdotes of teams that lose early in their conference tournaments but go on deep tournament runs.

For example,  2003 champs Syracuse and Final Four Marquette.  Both lost in the quarterfinals of their conference tournaments.

The 2004 Syracuse team that won the BET lost in the first round.

The best of the best usually win both the regular season and conference tournament titles.  Simply put,  the best teams win a lot of games, period.

Right - I said the BE post-2006 story was an anecdote. 2003 Cuse and Marquette is another anecdote.

But over the population of teams that have won their conference tourney but not the regular season, or vice-versa, there is probably some statistically significant difference in how they perform (relative to seed) in the Tourney.

For the sake of argument - IF that data suggested tourney performers did better, would that change your mind about what you'd want?

Quote from: warriorchick on February 18, 2019, 08:22:26 AM

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/efa0962878857ab3332344f84c41a345/tenor.gif?itemid=3787079)

No half measures, 'eh?

I've always viewed the regular season games just like any sport, in which winning your conference is great and all, but you're really playing to put yourself in the best position for the "post season."  So for me it is largely about seeding in the BET and NCAAT so you can truly win the championships. 

I can see why people disagree, but this is my personal view on it.

Quote from: UWW2MU on February 18, 2019, 09:00:11 AM
I've always viewed the regular season games just like any sport, in which winning your conference is great and all, but you're really playing to put yourself in the best position for the "post season."  So for me it is largely about seeding in the BET and NCAAT so you can truly win the championships. 

I can see why people disagree, but this is my personal view on it.

I agree with this as well. To be honest if Marquette wins either the BET or the Regular Season title, anything short of a S16 would be a disappointment.

Regular season.

But I'll be at MSG this year so winning the BET would be pretty sweet.

Quote from: HowardsWorld on February 18, 2019, 09:02:42 AM
I agree with this as well. To be honest if Marquette wins either the BET or the Regular Season title, anything short of a S16 would be a disappointment.

FIFY.

All of us will be disappointed if we don't get to the second weekend because we're good enough to do it. The level of disappointment from Scooper to Scooper will vary, of course.

Regular season

Quote from: MU82 on February 18, 2019, 09:13:22 AM
FIFY.

All of us will be disappointed if we don't get to the second weekend because we're good enough to do it. The level of disappointment from Scooper to Scooper will vary, of course.

LOL MUGURU will need help.

Quote from: 1SE on February 18, 2019, 08:52:34 AM
Right - I said the BE post-2006 story was an anecdote. 2003 Cuse and Marquette is another anecdote.

But over the population of teams that have won their conference tourney but not the regular season, or vice-versa, there is probably some statistically significant difference in how they perform (relative to seed) in the Tourney.

For the sake of argument - IF that data suggested tourney performers did better, would that change your mind about what you'd want?

I have no opinion on hypothetical evidence.  Please provide real evidence,  and then I will give my opinion.

The only team I can think of that went on a solid run after winning their tournament was 2011 Uconn. They didn't look like they would make it out of the 1st weekend let alone win the whole thing prior to winning the BET tournament.. After running through the BET they received a 3 seed and went on to win the title. Other than that I can't recall a team that wasn't already a top team go on a run like that.

Quote from: 1SE on February 18, 2019, 03:22:29 AM
Not that Nova's loss last night really changes anything as we probably still need to beat them to win the regular season title but, if you had to chose, what would you value more - a regular season crown or winning the BET?

For me it's all about what better predicts NCAA success. Going back to 05-06 (because who cares about the BE pre-Marquette) there have been 8 years in which the regular season champ and BET champ were different.

06 BET Syracuse (5 seed, lost 1st round), RSC Nova (1 seed, lost in EE), UConn (1 seed, lost in EE)

08 BET Pitt (4 seed, lost 2nd round), RSC Gtown (2 seed, lost 2nd round)

10 BET WV (2 seed, lost FF), RSC Cuse (1 seed, lost SS)

11 BET UConn (3 seed, National Champs), RSC Pitt (1 seed, lost 2nd round)

12 BET Louisville (4 seed, lost FF), RSC Cuse (1 seed, lost EE)

14 BET Prov (11 seed, lost 1st round), RSC Nova (2 seed, lost 2nd round)

16 BET Hall (6 seed, lost 1st round), RSC Nova (2 seed, national champs).

2010-2012 BET champs had good runs. RSCs that didn't win BET all under-performed to seed expect 2016 Nova. Gotta say slight edge to BET - better to come in hot!

2018 BET Villanova (1seed) - NCAA Champion, RSC Champ Xavier (1 seed) lost in 2nd round

Quote from: HowardsWorld on February 18, 2019, 07:17:26 AM
I think Marquette can win both. I really don't see anyone outside of Marquette or Nova winning the tournament. I know many are high on St. Johns but if I had to be honest I would say that win yesterday for them was more lucky than it was skill. Nova got complacent when they got up by 19. When St. Johns got it close Booth looked like he never shot a basketball before. Not that I think St. Johns isn't a good team but Nova hadn't lost a game up 19 in 5 years, yesterday was just the perfect storm.

Not saying the Johnnies can't win the BET but I'd say it's a hell of a lot harder when you only really have 7 guys playing significant minutes.  Those guys are going to have to wear out at some point during the week.

Quote from: warriorchick on February 18, 2019, 08:22:26 AM

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/efa0962878857ab3332344f84c41a345/tenor.gif?itemid=3787079)

Why not all 3; just win the next 15.

Quote from: GooooMarquette on February 18, 2019, 08:54:46 AM


No half measures, 'eh?

Just making sure we aren't aiming too low.   ;D

Quote from: Pepe Sylvia on February 18, 2019, 08:32:05 AM
I've seen MU win the conference regular season. I haven't seen them win the BET. So I want to see them win the BET.

That's where I'm at.

Quote from: HowardsWorld on February 18, 2019, 09:24:14 AM
The only team I can think of that went on a solid run after winning their tournament was 2011 Uconn. They didn't look like they would make it out of the 1st weekend let alone win the whole thing prior to winning the BET tournament.. After running through the BET they received a 3 seed and went on to win the title. Other than that I can't recall a team that wasn't already a top team go on a run like that.

Louisville won the big east tournament in 2013 and then won the national championship. Yeah, I know it's vacated but they still won the games

How can you all possibly say regular season and the "body of work" is superior to a BET Championship but then in the same sentence say you'd prefer the NCAA Championship? Completely illogical.
It is clearly:

NCAA Championship > BET Championship > Regular Season Champs

No argument.

Quote from: TheREALwrk on February 18, 2019, 11:43:54 AM
How can you all possibly say regular season and the "body of work" is superior to a BET Championship but then in the same sentence say you'd prefer the NCAA Championship? Completely illogical.
It is clearly:

NCAA Championship > BET Championship > Regular Season Champs

No argument.

Fixed if for you

NCAA Championship > Regular Season Champs   > BET Championship

BET. It's a no brainer and anyone who says or votes otherwise is wrong.

Did I mention I'm going to my first BET this year? That may have swayed my vote.  ;D

Quote from: Spaniel with a Short Tail on February 18, 2019, 12:34:07 PM
BET. It's a no brainer and anyone who says or votes otherwise is wrong.

Did I mention I'm going to my first BET this year? That may have swayed my vote.  ;D

FIFY  ;)

Ive always been about the regular season title. It's far more difficult to be really good for 18 games rather than as few as 3.

That said, I would really like to see 1 BE tourney title. Would just be fun to see us win on Saturday night at MSG in prime time.

For personal enjoyment I'd definitely be ok seeing the BE tourney title instead this year, but it's not the better accomplishment

Quote from: HowardsWorld on February 18, 2019, 12:33:09 PM
Fixed if for you

NCAA Championship > Regular Season Champs   > BET Championship

Did you read my post? I said no argument!

Went with the BET assuming that we'll be seeded either #1 or #2. I agree that the regular season represents a bigger body of work but I  want to see them do well (let's face it, for a change) on the big MSG stage.

If we were in the habit of winning conference titles on a regular basis, a la Villanova, I think I would be more interested in a regular season title.  The regular season crown would show that the team was top flight and looked good going into the NCAAs.  So we crap out in NYC....in the long run that doesn't matter.

But we're not.  We've been in this league for 15 years and have a single conference regular season crown (that we shared 3-ways), but have lots of good near-the-top seasons.  Weve had good NCAA runs.

But we have exactly ONE appearance in the Big East tournament semifinals (in 2008...coincidentally the last time I was there). I want to see us play on Saturday in NYC and bring home a trophy.  Do that, and I'm ok with finishing a game behind Nova in the standings and/or exiting early (but not too early) in the NCAAs.  Get some hardware!

Old timers can correct me if I'm wrong, but Marquette has NEVER won a conference tournament in the Great Midwest, CUSA, or BE?  We gotta get one!

Quote from: SaveOD238 on February 18, 2019, 10:00:57 PM
Old timers can correct me if I'm wrong, but Marquette has NEVER won a conference tournament in the Great Midwest, CUSA, or BE?  We gotta get one!

Marquette won the 1997 Conference USA tournament as the 5 seed. I believe that's the only one.

Quote from: Happy Meehl on February 18, 2019, 10:11:58 PM
Marquette won the 1997 Conference USA tournament as the 5 seed. I believe that's the only one.

I didn't watch that so it might as well not have happened. Win the damn tournament!

Quote from: Happy Meehl on February 18, 2019, 10:11:58 PM
Marquette won the 1997 Conference USA tournament as the 5 seed. I believe that's the only one.

I was there, pretty amazing in St Louis....a great run for four days, but a few days later Austin Croshere and Providence put the wood to us 81-59 in the NCAA tournament.  Deanne got kicked out of the game, he got into CM Newton's face and that earned him a suspension if I recall.

Got to spend some time Faisal Abraham's dad who was super cool.  RIP.

Win the regular season, have fun in NYC and then be ready for what really matters!

And seriously, how can the winner of the BEAST NOT be on the 2 line?

Quote from: SaveOD238 on February 18, 2019, 10:00:57 PM
If we were in the habit of winning conference titles on a regular basis, a la Villanova, I think I would be more interested in a regular season title.  The regular season crown would show that the team was top flight and looked good going into the NCAAs.  So we crap out in NYC....in the long run that doesn't matter.

But we're not.  We've been in this league for 15 years and have a single conference regular season crown (that we shared 3-ways), but have lots of good near-the-top seasons.  Weve had good NCAA runs.

But we have exactly ONE appearance in the Big East tournament semifinals (in 2008...coincidentally the last time I was there). I want to see us play on Saturday in NYC and bring home a trophy.  Do that, and I'm ok with finishing a game behind Nova in the standings and/or exiting early (but not too early) in the NCAAs.  Get some hardware!

Old timers can correct me if I'm wrong, but Marquette has NEVER won a conference tournament in the Great Midwest, CUSA, or BE?  We gotta get one!

Interesting take but I would take an extra win in the NCAA over a BET title any day. Only one tournament that matters.

Quote from: 1SE on February 19, 2019, 01:35:31 AM
Interesting take but I would take an extra win in the NCAA over a BET title any day. Only one tournament that matters.

If you can only have one, either a Big East Tournament title or a second round game in the NCAA tourney (but no Sweet 16) which do you pick? I think 5 years down the road, few would remember the team that won a single NCAA game, but everyone would remember the first BET title.

Quote from: SaveOD238 on February 18, 2019, 10:00:57 PM
But we have exactly ONE appearance in the Big East tournament semifinals (in 2008...coincidentally the last time I was there). I want to see us play on Saturday in NYC and bring home a trophy.  Do that, and I'm ok with finishing a game behind Nova in the standings and/or exiting early (but not too early) in the NCAAs.  Get some hardware!

Fake News

We made it in 2008 (lost to Pitt) and 2010 (Lost to Georgetown)

Quote from: YoungMUFan4 on February 19, 2019, 05:52:23 AM
Fake News

We made it in 2008 (lost to Pitt) and 2010 (Lost to Georgetown)

Fine...TWO in fifteen years.  And not a single appearance on Saturday night.  That's what I want!

Quote from: brewcity77 on February 19, 2019, 02:07:45 AM
If you can only have one, either a Big East Tournament title or a second round game in the NCAA tourney (but no Sweet 16) which do you pick? I think 5 years down the road, few would remember the team that won a single NCAA game, but everyone would remember the first BET title.

Can't win the second game if you don't win the first.

But there's something to the point - but I think it depends on the seed. If we lose in the second round as a 2 or 3 seed I think we'll remember it for a long time(and FIRE WOJO!!!). If we win the BET and then lost in the second round as a 10 seed I think you're right, we'd remember the BET title.

We might also remember the BET title just because it would be the first. You always remember the first. If it was like our 5th or 6th it might just get lost in the sands of time.