MU picked 7th...I can't say that I'd argue.
http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2017/06/02/big-east-conference-reset-its-still-villanovas-league-but-for-how-long/
Agreed. While it may not be this year, Wojo's next mission is consistently getting MU in the top half of the league. I know we finished 4th based on tie breakers, but we need to pass the Butler's and Hall's and Providence's of the world on an every season basis.
Not complaining where we're at or where we're slotted. But with our annual investment, those should be the long term minimum standards.
I think 5-8 are pretty interchangeable. Butler, Creighton, and Marquette all had serious losses while St John's will likely be moving up with their young core. Newcomers, sophomore slumps, and how role players step up will determine a lot. I wouldn't argue with us being anywhere in that range.
Quote from: brewcity77 on June 03, 2017, 09:46:31 AM
I think 5-8 are pretty interchangeable. Butler, Creighton, and Marquette all had serious losses while St John's will likely be moving up with their young core. Newcomers, sophomore slumps, and how role players step up will determine a lot. I wouldn't argue with us being anywhere in that range.
While Marquette definitely lost 3 solid players and role player, i just don't think we're going to miss anyone other than Luke all that much. IMO, JJJ, Duane and Katin will all be easily replaced. Luke's going to be tougher, and while he definitely had his shortcomings as a player, we don't really have anyone that can replace him. Here's to hoping some combo of Heldt, Froling and John is serviceable at the 5 (I think it will be).
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on June 03, 2017, 10:15:05 AM
While Marquette definitely lost 3 solid players and role player, i just don't think we're going to miss anyone other than Luke all that much. IMO, JJJ, Duane and Katin will all be easily replaced. Luke's going to be tougher, and while he definitely had his shortcomings as a player, we don't really have anyone that can replace him. Here's to hoping some combo of Heldt, Froling and John is serviceable at the 5 (I think it will be).
I think saying that two seniors and a four year junior are going to be "easily replaced" is extreme optimism.
Quote from: Sultan of Slap O' Fivin' on June 03, 2017, 10:16:53 AM
I think saying that two seniors and a four year junior are going to be "easily replaced" is extreme optimism.
I'm generally optimistic, but it has moreso to do with them just not being that good. Duane is definitely replaceable and was going to be a 15 MPG guy anyway. JJJ was obviously very talented but he never developed into anything other than a scrappy on ball defender that consistently gambled and got burned and really only good for a few highlight reel dunks per game. I think Cain can give us 70% of what JJJ did and I expect to see Sam at the 3 most of the time once Froling is eligible.
Katin is a tougher one to peg. I don't think we have anyone that can really replace his game persay, and he was a more talented player than his stat line would show last year, but he was a bit of a square peg in a round hole. I'm not sure he really needs to be directly replaced.
Rowsey and Markus will have the backcourt covered 75-80% of the time.
FWIW, Katin played more than anyone else in BEast games. He sported a 123 ORtg (19% usage), good for 7th best in the conference.
In these Posts, seems like no one has mention what kind of impact Greg Elliott will have next year.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on June 03, 2017, 10:23:52 AM
I'm generally optimistic, but it has moreso to do with them just not being that good. Duane is definitely replaceable and was going to be a 15 MPG guy anyway. JJJ was obviously very talented but he never developed into anything other than a scrappy on ball defender that consistently gambled and got burned and really only good for a few highlight reel dunks per game. I think Cain can give us 70% of what JJJ did and I expect to see Sam at the 3 most of the time once Froling is eligible.
Katin is a tougher one to peg. I don't think we have anyone that can really replace his game persay, and he was a more talented player than his stat line would show last year, but he was a bit of a square peg in a round hole. I'm not sure he really needs to be directly replaced.
Rowsey and Markus will have the backcourt covered 75-80% of the time.
If Cain gives us "70% of what JJJ did," he isn't replaced.
Luke will be a bigger loss than most think, I wish we had him for one more year. He played hard
and seemed to really grow as an all around player last year, with a great attitude
Quote from: Loose Cannon on June 03, 2017, 10:35:48 AM
In these Posts, seems like no one has mention what kind of impact Greg Elliott will have next year.
Personally, because I expect minimal contributions from him. Howard, Rowsey, and Cheatham likely combine for around 70-75 mpg. That doesn't leave a lot of time in the backcourt for a late blooming true freshman. He could certainly surprise, but I'm not counting on a ton from any of the freshmen, with Cain and John the two I'd most expect to carve out significant roles.
MU has posted the new roster now. Elliott is list at 6'3" and 170 while Cain is listed at 6'7" and 185. these guys need work in the weight room.
They both need 10-15 pounds of muscle for the BE, I see Cheatham has bulked up if these are
accurate weights
7th in the Beast is unacceptable, and Wojo better get going on success. What is his record at MU? About .500. And he is in his 4th year. When the BEast was reformed, there were people on this board that scoffed at "mid-majors" like Butler and Creighton be taken into the league. Those two programs have out performed the Duke Wonderboy since he became head coach. While I would rate him an A as a recruiter, he gets about a charitable C- as a bench coach. It is time for Wojo to step up and compete seriously for BEast titles, and not for middle of the pack mediocrity. Isn't he being paid big bucks along with excellent resources to be at the top of the conference, instead of a pack lagger?
Quote from: Nukem2 on June 03, 2017, 10:48:02 AM
MU has posted the new roster now. Elliott is list at 6'3" and 170 while Cain is listed at 6'7" and 185. these guys need work in the weight room.
Heldt 6'10" 250
John 6'9" 240
Harry 6'11" 250
Ike 6'9" 230
We've gotten bigger (nh)
Quote from: willie warrior on June 03, 2017, 10:55:44 AM
7th in the Beast is unacceptable, and Wojo better get going on success. What is his record at MU? About .500. And he is in his 4th year. When the BEast was reformed, there were people on this board that scoffed at "mid-majors" like Butler and Creighton be taken into the league. Those two programs have out performed the Duke Wonderboy since he became head coach. While I would rate him an A as a recruiter, he gets about a charitable C- as a bench coach. It is time for Wojo to step up and compete seriously for BEast titles, and not for middle of the pack mediocrity. Isn't he being paid big bucks along with excellent resources to be at the top of the conference, instead of a pack lagger?
Wojo has improved every year. Hopefully this year is better than last, but progress is not always in a straight line.
Quote from: Nukem2 on June 03, 2017, 10:48:02 AM
MU has posted the new roster now. Elliott is list at 6'3" and 170 while Cain is listed at 6'7" and 185. these guys need work in the weight room.
In comparison, Sandy was 180 as a Frosh.
Quote from: Sultan of Slap O' Fivin' on June 03, 2017, 10:58:02 AM
Wojo has improved every year. Hopefully this year is better than last, but progress is not always in a straight line.
I think that's just wee willie whining. We could finish second in the Big East, make the BET final, and go to the Final Four and he'd complain that Wonderboy Wojo didn't win the league and both tournaments.
Quote from: brewcity77 on June 03, 2017, 11:10:51 AM
I think that's just wee willie whining. We could finish second in the Big East, make the BET final, and go to the Final Four and he'd complain that Wonderboy Wojo didn't win the league and both tournaments.
While true, if we remain a bottom half BEast team through the rest of the decade I'd consider that unacceptable.
Quote from: brewcity77 on June 03, 2017, 11:10:51 AM
I think that's just wee willie whining. We could finish second in the Big East, make the BET final, and go to the Final Four and he'd complain that Wonderboy Wojo didn't win the league and both tournaments.
That said, this will be his first year with just "his guys". Wojo is a systems coach, and he chose (or inherited) to piecemeal it until now. So, to me, no matter the finish unlike Willie, it will be interesting to see how this team progresses this season.
I think that the starters will be stable. Rowsey, Howard and Sam will be very solid. I am hopeful for significant improvement from Haani and Heldt. The shooting will be fine.
The rest is a big question mark, frankly. Harry: We don't know what we are going to get. The freshman seem underrated, maybe because of their size or experience...but they all seem to have significant upside. Theo seems the most physically ready on defense but his offensive skills appear limited. Sacar? We've hardly known thee.
Let's talk defense. It has been very bad especially by Marquette and BE standards. Wojo has stated it will and must get better this season. The Big bodies will help, but the on ball defense has been matador at best. With the returning perimeter players and youngins, I am doubtful, but it will be a test of Wojo.
This is Year 4 on the Chicos Scale. I am excited to see Wojo put it all together. I expect we will need Year 5 before we go "all Willie".
I prefer the term "Full Willie"
I have to agree though, picked 7th is unacceptable. I kind of don't care where we finish but I expect to be picked in the top 3 every year. Outside the top 3, I say we go to Stan....DNT
Quote from: jsglow on June 03, 2017, 12:36:16 PM
While true, if we remain a bottom half BEast team through the rest of the decade I'd consider that unacceptable.
Sure, but we've notably improved every year under Wojo. Anyone that can't see this team is headed in the right direction and there's plenty of reason for optimism is simply blind or stupid. Anyone taking the "where's the progress" angle is either trolling or just being a whiny little bitch.
Quote from: brewcity77 on June 03, 2017, 02:11:31 PM
Sure, but we've notably improved every year under Wojo. Anyone that can't see this team is headed in the right direction and there's plenty of reason for optimism is simply blind or stupid. Anyone taking the "where's the progress" angle is either trolling or just being a whiny little bitch.
Yep.
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on June 03, 2017, 05:57:35 AM
MU picked 7th...I can't say that I'd argue.
http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2017/06/02/big-east-conference-reset-its-still-villanovas-league-but-for-how-long/
There was some thought that went into this research report. However they are under rating Markus and Sam and have made no provision for the return to form of Haanif. The 3 through 10 spots in the Big East will be bitterly fought for all season long. I think we can be the leader of that group.
Quote from: Marquette Fan In NY on June 03, 2017, 02:22:48 PM
There was some thought that went into this research report. However they are under rating Markus and Sam and have made no provision for the return to form of Haanif. The 3 through 10 spots in the Big East will be bitterly fought for all season long. I think we can be the leader of that group.
In 2017, #3-6 in conference had the same records. #7 was Xavier who was Elite 8 even with devastating injuries. I think we would all be fine with that, even Willie.
But, as a fan, there is a lot of upside to be had, which means ups and downs. Last year, the question with the veteran team was could they gel? This year the question is around personal progression of individuals. Wojo recruited them to fit his system, so we know that question has been put to rest. There is only upside with this group on potential versus waiting for, let's say, a Jamil or JjJ to achieve elite levels (with their recruiting ratings) that never came.
Quote from: willie warrior on June 03, 2017, 10:55:44 AM
7th in the Beast is unacceptable, and Wojo better get going on success. What is his record at MU? About .500. And he is in his 4th year. When the BEast was reformed, there were people on this board that scoffed at "mid-majors" like Butler and Creighton be taken into the league. Those two programs have out performed the Duke Wonderboy since he became head coach. While I would rate him an A as a recruiter, he gets about a charitable C- as a bench coach. It is time for Wojo to step up and compete seriously for BEast titles, and not for middle of the pack mediocrity. Isn't he being paid big bucks along with excellent resources to be at the top of the conference, instead of a pack lagger?
Agree with all of this. Without their win over 'Nova last year, a game they were down double digits for 33 minutes, they maybe make the NIT. Then they looked terrible in both postseason performances. Excuses need to stop for the program and Wojo start delivering results. The Big East is a good conference, but there are no blue bloods. Not a reason in the world we shouldn't be able to outperform the likes of Seton Hall, Providence, Creighton, Butler, etc., which we clearly haven't in 4 years of new BE. Time for Wojo to show something, or get out of the way for somebody who can.
Quote from: HutchwasClutch on June 03, 2017, 03:31:48 PM
Agree with all of this. Without their win over 'Nova last year, a game they were down double digits for 33 minutes, they maybe make the NIT. Then they looked terrible in both postseason performances. Excuses need to stop for the program and Wojo start delivering results. The Big East is a good conference, but there are no blue bloods. Not a reason in the world we shouldn't be able to outperform the likes of Seton Hall, Providence, Creighton, Butler, etc., which we clearly haven't in 4 years of new BE. Time for Wojo to show something, or get out of the way for somebody who can.
2014–15 13–19 (4–14) T–9th No postseason
2015–16 20–13 (8–10) 7th No postseason
2016–17 19–13 (10–8) T-3rd NCAA bid
Is this not showing you something???
Quote from: HutchwasClutch on June 03, 2017, 03:31:48 PM
Agree with all of this. Without their win over 'Nova last year, a game they were down double digits for 33 minutes, they maybe make the NIT. Then they looked terrible in both postseason performances. Excuses need to stop for the program and Wojo start delivering results. The Big East is a good conference, but there are no blue bloods. Not a reason in the world we shouldn't be able to outperform the likes of Seton Hall, Providence, Creighton, Butler, etc., which we clearly haven't in 4 years of new BE. Time for Wojo to show something, or get out of the way for somebody who can.
Here we go again.
They have Georgetown 10th. Can't say I disagree.
Raise your hand if you thought the season that DePaul did not finish last would be to a "storied program" like Georgetown.
Quote from: Sultan of Slap O' Fivin' on June 03, 2017, 04:00:10 PM
2014–15 13–19 (4–14) T–9th No postseason
2015–16 20–13 (8–10) 7th No postseason
2016–17 19–13 (10–8) T-3rd NCAA bid
Is this not showing you something???
Tied for 3rd based on tiebreakers, anybody who's honest knows it was a middle of the pack finish, including one and done in conference tournament. As I pointed out, a 7 minute stretch in one game got them in the NCAA's. Without that comeback, they don't make it. Then they get killed in that game. We're not setting the bar very high to be happy with one NCAA bid as a 10 seed. Year before, they had an NBA top 20 pick, and couldn't even get to .500 in conference, including a home loss to DePaul, and another one and done in conference tournament.
They've shown they can be very mediocre under him. Which I guess is fine for a lot of fans.
Quote from: HutchwasClutch on June 03, 2017, 04:35:01 PM
Tied for 3rd based on tiebreakers, anybody who's honest knows it was a middle of the pack finish, including one and done in conference tournament. As I pointed out, a 7 minute stretch in one game got them in the NCAA's. Without that comeback, they don't make it. Then they get killed in that game. We're not setting the bar very high to be happy with one NCAA bid as a 10 seed. Year before, they had an NBA top 20 pick, and couldn't even get to .500 in conference, including a home loss to DePaul, and another one and done in conference tournament.
They've shown they can be very mediocre under him. Which I guess is fine for a lot of fans.
They have improved every year. That's something. And where did I say I was satisfied with that? I expect the bar to be set higher.
You just can't recognize progress.
Quote from: HutchwasClutch on June 03, 2017, 04:35:01 PM
Tied for 3rd based on tiebreakers, anybody who's honest knows it was a middle of the pack finish, including one and done in conference tournament. As I pointed out, a 7 minute stretch in one game got them in the NCAA's. Without that comeback, they don't make it. Then they get killed in that game. We're not setting the bar very high to be happy with one NCAA bid as a 10 seed. Year before, they had an NBA top 20 pick, and couldn't even get to .500 in conference, including a home loss to DePaul, and another one and done in conference tournament.
They've shown they can be very mediocre under him. Which I guess is fine for a lot of fans.
What would another coach have done different the last two years? I am not a Wojo fan and have stated my views over that time . What do you think Wojo could have done to elevate our status above mediocre?
Quote from: HutchwasClutch on June 03, 2017, 04:35:01 PM
We're not setting the bar very high to be happy with one NCAA bid as a 10 seed. Year before, they had an NBA top 20 pick, and couldn't even get to .500 in conference, including a home loss to DePaul, and another one and done in conference tournament.
They've shown they can be very mediocre under him. Which I guess is fine for a lot of fans.
I think people are pleased with the trajectory and outlook. Wojo still had his predecessor's players last season. Coaching changes are rarely simple flicks of the light switch.
This month, the likely #1 pick in the NBA draft will be a kid whose team went 9-22 and had a single top-100 KenPom win (in overtime at home to a medicore Colorado team). Your NBA top 20 pick comment has little relevance.
Size and defense has been an issue with the roster. This year's class and transfers in help to address this issue. However, one transfer is out for the first part of the season; the other isn't eligible for a year. .the others are young, true frosh...
But smart people see we're giving ourselves a chance to be very good in 2018-19. The roster is being built. That's the very good sign, even though it's difficult to expect greatness in 2017-18.... the outlook and improvement is evident.
Quote from: Jay Bee on June 03, 2017, 05:01:51 PM
I think people are pleased with the trajectory and outlook. Wojo still had his predecessor's players last season. Coaching changes are rarely simple flicks of the light switch.
This month, the likely #1 pick in the NBA draft will be a kid whose team went 9-22 and had a single top-100 KenPom win (in overtime at home to a medicore Colorado team). Your NBA top 20 pick comment has little relevance.
Size and defense has been an issue with the roster. This year's class and transfers in help to address this issue. However, one transfer is out for the first part of the season; the other isn't eligible for a year. .the others are young, true frosh...
But smart people see we're giving ourselves a chance to be very good in 2018-19. The roster is being built. That's the very good sign, even though it's difficult to expect greatness in 2017-18.... the outlook and improvement is evident.
First, I agree the foundation is there for success as far as how the current roster and 2018-19 roster has come together. I think this could be a very underrated incoming freshman class. If they stay together of course, which is a huge if given today's college basketball landscape, and what we've seen at MU over several years now.
Yes, there has been progress in Wojo's three years. I certainly would hope so given where it started in 2014-15, they were bottom feeders of the conference. It could hardly have gotten much worse than 4-14 and a near 20 loss season. But the two years since has been very modest progress as I've already argued.
The notion of having Ellenson and that team without anything to show for it, is not an irrelevancy. Coaches lose their jobs quickly when that happens. Romar at Washington and Jones at LSU were fired the seasons after their one and done stars moved on to the NBA. And Romar had a track record of success at Washington. I realize those two guys did and will go much higher than Ellenson did, but bottom line is Ellenson was not far outside of the lottery.
I am very open to the notion that I could be wrong about Wojo. I am not declaring he's a failure, should be fired now, etc. Just color me highly skeptical based on what we've seen to date. Very underwhelming overall.
Quote from: HutchwasClutch on June 03, 2017, 07:02:46 PM
First, I agree the foundation is there for success as far as how the current roster and 2018-19 roster has come together. I think this could be a very underrated incoming freshman class. If they stay together of course, which is a huge if given today's college basketball landscape, and what we've seen at MU over several years now.
Yes, there has been progress in Wojo's three years. I certainly would hope so given where it started in 2014-15, they were bottom feeders of the conference. It could hardly have gotten much worse than 4-14 and a near 20 loss season. But the two years since has been very modest progress as I've already argued.
The notion of having Ellenson and that team without anything to show for it, is not an irrelevancy. Coaches lose their jobs quickly when that happens. Romar at Washington and Jones at LSU were fired the seasons after their one and done stars moved on to the NBA. And Romar had a track record of success at Washington. I realize those two guys did and will go much higher than Ellenson did, but bottom line is Ellenson was not far outside of the lottery.
I am very open to the notion that I could be wrong about Wojo. I am not declaring he's a failure, should be fired now, etc. Just color me highly skeptical based on what we've seen to date. Very underwhelming overall.
So what would you advocate that Wojo could have done differently . I have put my views out over the years and am interested in hearing yours.
Quote from: HutchwasClutch on June 03, 2017, 07:02:46 PM
First, I agree the foundation is there for success as far as how the current roster and 2018-19 roster has come together. I think this could be a very underrated incoming freshman class. If they stay together of course, which is a huge if given today's college basketball landscape, and what we've seen at MU over several years now.
Yes, there has been progress in Wojo's three years. I certainly would hope so given where it started in 2014-15, they were bottom feeders of the conference. It could hardly have gotten much worse than 4-14 and a near 20 loss season. But the two years since has been very modest progress as I've already argued.
The notion of having Ellenson and that team without anything to show for it, is not an irrelevancy. Coaches lose their jobs quickly when that happens. Romar at Washington and Jones at LSU were fired the seasons after their one and done stars moved on to the NBA. And Romar had a track record of success at Washington. I realize those two guys did and will go much higher than Ellenson did, but bottom line is Ellenson was not far outside of the lottery.
I am very open to the notion that I could be wrong about Wojo. I am not declaring he's a failure, should be fired now, etc. Just color me highly skeptical based on what we've seen to date. Very underwhelming overall.
How is it "modest?" They went from sub .500 to an NCAA tournament in two years. Your arguments are lacking facts.
Quote from: Sultan of Slap O' Fivin' on June 03, 2017, 08:02:07 PM
How is it "modest?" They went from sub .500 to an NCAA tournament in two years. Your arguments are lacking facts.
Because if you take away his good wins this year then it wouldn't have been progress and there would be no NCAA Tournament appearance. Duh. It's unacceptable that had we not won some big games we wouldn't have gone dancing. Marquette fans have become too accepting of mediocrity if they don't see that when you remove the good games from a season the season was really bad.
Quote from: Sultan of Slap O' Fivin' on June 03, 2017, 10:43:50 AM
If Cain gives us "70% of what JJJ did," he isn't replaced.
Cain doesn't need to replace JJJ that's the point. Sam will play most minutes in JJJs spot, and he's a far better player.
Quote from: brewcity77 on June 03, 2017, 11:10:51 AM
I think that's just wee willie whining. We could finish second in the Big East, make the BET final, and go to the Final Four and he'd complain that Wonderboy Wojo didn't win the league and both tournaments.
We have not even been close to those results. But keep your wojo colored glasses on and savor the mediocrity.
Stop with the hypothetical bullsh!t taking away the Villanova win. MU could just as easily have won both Providence games and the first Seton Hall game...13-5! Hypothetical 2nd place! What do you think, 4 or 5 seed? See, it goes both ways.
As for the next complaint: Missing the tournament with Henry. How about acknowledging the fact that, despite losing Henry, the team went on to make the tournament. If missing the tournament with Henry was a huge failure, making the tournament without him is just as big of a success.
But that wouldn't fit the anti-Wojo agenda. Honestly, I was not thrilled when Wojo's name first came up in the coaching search. He still hasn't completely proven himself but the trend is up. Face it, Buzz left MU in a downward spiral. Wojo's first year, things hit rock bottom. The trend has been upward since. We're probably one year away. Have some patience. The front court is improving. One more high quality guard would make me feel better. Wojo is getting there. I'm optimistic going forward.
Quote from: willie warrior on June 04, 2017, 06:36:06 AM
We have not even been close to those results.
Which changes nothing about my post or my point. You're whining for no reason and willfully ignoring steady and obvious improvement.
Quote from: willie warrior on June 03, 2017, 10:55:44 AM
7th in the Beast is unacceptable, and Wojo better get going on success. What is his record at MU? About .500. And he is in his 4th year. When the BEast was reformed, there were people on this board that scoffed at "mid-majors" like Butler and Creighton be taken into the league. Those two programs have out performed the Duke Wonderboy since he became head coach. While I would rate him an A as a recruiter, he gets about a charitable C- as a bench coach. It is time for Wojo to step up and compete seriously for BEast titles, and not for middle of the pack mediocrity. Isn't he being paid big bucks along with excellent resources to be at the top of the conference, instead of a pack lagger?
I would give Wojo a B in recruiting. 4 incoming freshmen, who do not even get us ranked in the top 40 recruiting classes does not earn an A in recruiting.
Quote from: 1.21 Jigawatts on June 03, 2017, 04:15:14 PM
They have Georgetown 10th. Can't say I disagree.
Georgetown lost 57 percent of its scoring from a 14-18 win team and its only top 100 recruit decommitted. That's a lot to catch up on, and there are still two scholarships still unfilled.
Quote from: bilsu on June 04, 2017, 08:56:38 AM
I would give Wojo a B in recruiting. 4 incoming freshmen, who do not even get us ranked in the top 40 recruiting classes does not earn an A in recruiting.
Sure ignore Cain, Markus, Sam, Henry, Haaniff and 4 stud transfers. Just Base your grade on this class...
Because for a program with 3 straight S16s in recent history simply making the NCAA is MODEST. Especially when its paired with a 1st round BET loss.
Quote from: Lazar's Headband on June 04, 2017, 07:25:53 AM
Stop with the hypothetical bullsh!t taking away the Villanova win. MU could just as easily have won both Providence games and the first Seton Hall game...13-5! Hypothetical 2nd place! What do you think, 4 or 5 seed? See, it goes both ways.
As for the next complaint: Missing the tournament with Henry. How about acknowledging the fact that, despite losing Henry, the team went on to make the tournament. If missing the tournament with Henry was a huge failure, making the tournament without him is just as big of a success.
But that wouldn't fit the anti-Wojo agenda. Honestly, I was not thrilled when Wojo's name first came up in the coaching search. He still hasn't completely proven himself but the trend is up. Face it, Buzz left MU in a downward spiral. Wojo's first year, things hit rock bottom. The trend has been upward since. We're probably one year away. Have some patience. The front court is improving. One more high quality guard would make me feel better. Wojo is getting there. I'm optimistic going forward.
'Nova win and comeback was an aberration. Name another game not only last year, last 5, or last 10, where they trailed 33-34 minutes, almost entirely by double digits, only to come back and win? Nobody does that with regularity. Sure other losses you point out could have easily been flipped to W's, but instead just go into trend of losses we've seen far too often under Wojo.
I'd give far more weight to argument about giving credit to making NCAA's without HE, were there have been more foundation for their NCAA selection than 7 minutes vs 'Nova. Rest of their body of work impressed selection committee to nothing more than 1 seed better than Providence, which played in Dayton. So what do you think committee does with them taking out an aberrational win over team chosen as #1 seed of the entire tournament?!
I agree with progress, and I to believe he has a lot of really nice players who can compete for top of the conference. I just have serious doubts Wojo will take them another level higher based on current data. He's had the talent last two seasons to do much more than what results have been.
By the way, why are there arguments here about progress and upward trends, while at the same time pointing out we're a year away, or 2018-19 team is shaping up to be very strong? Doesn't progress and upward trend mean continued improvement over one year to the next? No one seems to be arguing 2017-18 will be better than 2016-17 was (which I agree with).
I'm highly skeptical progress will be sustained and taken another level.
Quote from: HutchwasClutch on June 04, 2017, 09:49:43 AM
By the way, why are there arguments here about progress and upward trends, while at the same time pointing out we're a year away, or 2018-19 team is shaping up to be very strong? Doesn't progress and upward trend mean continued improvement over one year to the next? No one seems to be arguing 2017-18 will be better than 2016-17 was (which I agree with).
Personally, because I view this season about the same as last year, which is a bubble team, and because progress isn't always a straight line. The trajectory is up, regardless of where we end up this year.
Quote from: brewcity77 on June 04, 2017, 09:57:15 AM
Personally, because I view this season about the same as last year, which is a bubble team, and because progress isn't always a straight line. The trajectory is up, regardless of where we end up this year.
Good point.
Quote from: Marquette Fan In NY on June 03, 2017, 07:46:27 PM
So what would you advocate that Wojo could have done differently . I have put my views out over the years and am interested in hearing yours.
Nothing really unique to what's already been said enough.
Quote from: brewcity77 on June 04, 2017, 07:35:36 AM
Which changes nothing about my post or my point. You're whining for no reason and willfully ignoring steady and obvious improvement.
Is it whining to want MU to have success? Must be your idea, huh. Steady and obvious improvement? Debatable. yes we made the tournament, only to lose in the first round as we did in the Beast tourney. 20-13 to 19-13 in past two years is not "steady and obvious improvement." And given the way we played in final two games, it is only a stalemate. Yeah, i am glad we got to the dance, but this year's field was weaker than last year. So the jury is still out on Wojo. Tell you what. Define now what steady and obvious improvement will look like this year as compared to last: in Beast Play; in making the Dance, in the Beast tourney and record. Then we can use that as a basis as the gospel according to you.
Quote from: HutchwasClutch on June 04, 2017, 09:31:13 AM
'Nova win and comeback was an aberration. Name another game not only last year, last 5, or last 10, where they trailed 33-34 minutes, almost entirely by double digits, only to come back and win? Nobody does that with regularity. Sure other losses you point out could have easily been flipped to W's, but instead just go into trend of losses we've seen far too often under Wojo.
I'd give far more weight to argument about giving credit to making NCAA's without HE, were there have been more foundation for their NCAA selection than 7 minutes vs 'Nova. Rest of their body of work impressed selection committee to nothing more than 1 seed better than Providence, which played in Dayton. So what do you think committee does with them taking out an aberrational win over team chosen as #1 seed of the entire tournament?!
I agree with progress, and I to believe he has a lot of really nice players who can compete for top of the conference. I just have serious doubts Wojo will take them another level higher based on current data. He's had the talent last two seasons to do much more than what results have been.
Yes, everything needed to break just right for the win over Villanova. But the game at Providence went the other way, where 7 bad minutes cost MU a win. It was 10 bad minutes against Pitt. The team was great for a half at Butler.
I view building those leads in the first place as a positive. So while I can't point to any other comeback wins like Nova, I see signs of high level play. Just need to improve consistency and hold leads.
This year, we have several obstacles: Youth, lack of strength for Cain and Elliott, Morrow sitting out as a transfer, Froling out first semester...all things that should be improved on by next year. I'm viewing this year as a tread water year. 10 BE wins, make the tournament. Then make another jump next year. But I realize the BE is tough and it's possible to fall short this year. Will have to see how it plays out.
Quote from: HutchwasClutch on June 04, 2017, 09:31:13 AM
'Nova win and comeback was an aberration. Name another game not only last year, last 5, or last 10, where they trailed 33-34 minutes, almost entirely by double digits, only to come back and win? Nobody does that with regularity. Sure other losses you point out could have easily been flipped to W's, but instead just go into trend of losses we've seen far too often under Wojo.
You are basing too much on one win. We also swept an eventual Elite 8 team, including giving them a beat down in their own gym. It was progress.
The idea that you can discount our best wins is ludicrous.
Marquette won 10 games in the Big East and tied for 3rd place in the conference. Our 19 wins included 7 against NCAA teams: Creighton (twice), Seton Hall, Vanderbilt, Villanova and Xavier (twice). That's undeniable. And it wasn't due to luck. MU had a Top 10 offense and proved it could beat anybody in the country. In addition, we didn't have a single loss to a sub-Top 100 team.
My expectations for the future are even higher. Marquette clearly needs to improve its defense and consistency. Our defense was the 2nd worst in the Big East. We lost 5 games by 4 points or less — against Butler, Pittsburgh, Providence (twice) and Seton Hall. And we didn't get results in the postseason, where it counts most.
Success isn't all or nothing. Wojo may not have MU in contention for a Big East title or back in the Final Four just yet. But that's no reason to disregard numerous important and encouraging signs of progress.
I am expecting last year and this upcoming year to be relatively similar from a team quality perspective. Better team defense offset by less experience...
Like last year our post season fortunes will be likely dictated by the quality of the field (bubble). I hope for better but that's about all I think you can expect.
Quote from: willie warrior on June 04, 2017, 10:41:54 AM20-13 to 19-13 in past two years is not "steady and obvious improvement."
Maybe if you don't actually pay attention to Marquette basketball and just tally numbers come April 1, it wasn't obvious. This team was much better than the year before.
Defining improvement, next year I'd simply say improved defensive efficiency is most important. Get that with relatively comparable offensive efficiency and another push for a NCAA berth and that's progress. Individual improvement from the kids while setting the table for a big 2018-19.
2014-15
0-11 against KenPom Top 25
1-16 against KenPom Top 50
1 win against NCAA teams (Providence)
2015-16
0-6 against KenPom Top 25
5-10 against KenPom Top 50
4 wins against NCAA teams (Butler, Providence x2, Wisconsin)
2016-17
1-6 against KenPom Top 25
6-6 against KenPom Top 50
7 wins against NCAA teams (Creighton x2, Seton Hall, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Xavier x2)
Marquette's first Top 25 win since 2013. An increase in quality wins by multiple measures, every year that Wojo's been head coach. If you want to deny that's clear progress, go ahead.
Recognizing the facts doesn't mean I have Wojo-colored glasses. It doesn't mean I'm satisfied with just making the tournament, either.
Quote from: brewcity77 on June 04, 2017, 02:15:22 PM
Maybe if you don't actually pay attention to Marquette basketball and just tally numbers come April 1, it wasn't obvious. This team was much better than the year before.
Defining improvement, next year I'd simply say improved defensive efficiency is most important. Get that with relatively comparable offensive efficiency and another push for a NCAA berth and that's progress. Individual improvement from the kids while setting the table for a big 2018-19.
Last season was, arguably, the best offensive team in Marquette's 100 year history. Since stats have been kept in 1948-49, most points per game, most treys made (2nd in % to a team that had a line closer in), best FT% team (no matta but indicative of the shooting ability across eras), and (more modern) highest KPom Adj Orating at 120.8 (versus 2003 at 116.5). Defensively, this may have been the worst MU team in my lifetime, and certainly in the Modern Statistical Age.
I think this team could actually be better than last year's team and not make the NCAA tournament. Last year MU took advantage of the breaks it got. Who knows what is going happen this year? For example Howard(or another starter) could miss three critical Big East games, which could result in losses instead of wins. Not making the tournament this year is not necessarily a step backwards. It depends on why we did not make the tournament.
Hmm...are we under estimating Sacar's contribution this coming season? Or is he the 11th or 12th guy off the bench? Wojo must see something there to hold on to him.
Quote from: bilsu on June 04, 2017, 04:10:19 PM
I think this team could actually be better than last year's team and not make the NCAA tournament. Last year MU took advantage of the breaks it got. Who knows what is going happen this year? For example Howard(or another starter) could miss three critical Big East games, which could result in losses instead of wins. Not making the tournament this year is not necessarily a step backwards. It depends on why we did not make the tournament.
Did we take advantage of the breaks we got? Looking back, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Seton Hall away, Butler away, and Providence twice were all games we were in good position to win. I know people are pointing to the Xavier and Creighton breaks, but we were 311th in the country in luck. Last year's team was a lot closer to being +4 in the win column than -4.
Quote from: muwarrior69 on June 04, 2017, 07:45:22 PM
Hmm...are we under estimating Sacar's contribution this coming season? Or is he the 11th or 12th guy off the bench? Wojo must see something there to hold on to him.
I believe Sacar he is going to surprise a lot of people. Sacar is a quality young man who worked hard his season off. He will definitely be in the mix to earn the 2/3 minutes available now that JJJ, Katin and Duane have graduated.
We will have some offensive weapons. They key will be rebounds no and defense. So far, we have not seen a god defensive team in 3 years. What will change this year? Same staff. No defensive Zoe ialst brought in. So have to hope new guys play good D and can learn quickly.
Quote from: Marcus92 on June 04, 2017, 02:54:47 PM
2014-15
0-11 against KenPom Top 25
1-16 against KenPom Top 50
1 win against NCAA teams (Providence)
2015-16
0-6 against KenPom Top 25
5-10 against KenPom Top 50
4 wins against NCAA teams (Butler, Providence x2, Wisconsin)
2016-17
1-6 against KenPom Top 25
6-6 against KenPom Top 50
7 wins against NCAA teams (Creighton x2, Seton Hall, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Xavier x2)
Marquette's first Top 25 win since 2013. An increase in quality wins by multiple measures, every year that Wojo's been head coach. If you want to deny that's clear progress, go ahead.
Recognizing the facts doesn't mean I have Wojo-colored glasses. It doesn't mean I'm satisfied with just making the tournament, either.
Interesting we played only 12 vs. top 50 this season and 17 a couple years ago. Schedule seemed better this year.
Quote from: muwarrior69 on June 04, 2017, 07:45:22 PM
Hmm...are we under estimating Sacar's contribution this coming season? Or is he the 11th or 12th guy off the bench? Wojo must see something there to hold on to him.
I hope so. If nothing else but to provide defense and rebounding. Or to be a 4th-liner type goon to take out the other team's best player.
Quote from: brewcity77 on June 04, 2017, 07:59:46 PM
Did we take advantage of the breaks we got? Looking back, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Seton Hall away, Butler away, and Providence twice were all games we were in good position to win. I know people are pointing to the Xavier and Creighton breaks, but we were 311th in the country in luck. Last year's team was a lot closer to being +4 in the win column than -4.
In 2015-16, when we ranked #42 in "luck" (12th percentile), you decried how, if not for some bad luck and close losses, we would have been dancing. In 2016-17, when we ranked #279 (79th percentile) but played the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the conference without their best players and went 4-0, we were again victims of bad luck.
Here are the facts:in the past two years we have been remarkably healthy - good luck. And in the last two years combined we've been in the 45.5th percentile in the "luck" quotient, slightly luckier than average. Add to that the benefit from our opponent's injuries and it's obvious that the bad luck you see through the blue and gold glasses over the last two years is in one case wholly and in another largely a good fan twisting the data.
Quote from: geps on June 05, 2017, 08:41:59 AM
Interesting we played only 12 vs. top 50 this season and 17 a couple years ago. Schedule seemed better this year.
We also played 3 games against Seton Hall, who KenPom ranked #51 — just outside the Top 50.
If you look at the big picture, the two schedules were relatively close. In 2014-15 we played 24 of our 32 games against KenPom Top 100 teams. Last season: 23 of 32 games.
Quote from: 1.21 Jigawatts on June 03, 2017, 04:15:14 PM
They have Georgetown 10th. Can't say I disagree.
Raise your hand if you thought the season that DePaul did not finish last would be to a "storied program" like Georgetown.
gotta give Ewing 5 years
Quote from: Lennys Tap on June 05, 2017, 10:05:21 AM
In 2015-16, when we ranked #42 in "luck" (12th percentile), you decried how, if not for some bad luck and close losses, we would have been dancing. In 2016-17, when we ranked #279 (79th percentile) but played the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the conference without their best players and went 4-0, we were again victims of bad luck.
Here are the facts:in the past two years we have been remarkably healthy - good luck. And in the last two years combined we've been in the 45.5th percentile in the "luck" quotient, slightly luckier than average. Add to that the benefit from our opponent's injuries and it's obvious that the bad luck you see through the blue and gold glasses over the last two years is in one case wholly and in another largely a good fan twisting the data.
http://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankLuck
2015-16 we were #53 in luck. We needed 2-3 more wins to be dancing (probably 3, 2 would've been a NIT lock though). Was it bad luck? No, it was that we needed 2-3 more wins. Sure, it could've been the relatively close DePaul, Belmont, and Creighton losses, but that wasn't a great team by any means and their exclusion wasn't down to luck it was down to not having enough around Ellenson.
Last year we had more games go against us on the flip of a coin than go for us. Nova jumps out, but the only other two wins we had by fewer than 8 points were Fresno and Seton Hall at home, and Fresno we were in control the entire game even if they got the score close by the buzzer. We had an 80% probability of winning in the second half against Pitt, at Seton Hall, at Butler, against Providence, and at Providence.
Also...you don't understand how percentiles work. 12th percentile is very, very bad. 45.5th percentile is not above average.
Quote from: brewcity77 on June 05, 2017, 10:37:18 AM
Also...you don't understand how percentiles work. 12th percentile is very, very bad. 45.5th percentile is not above average.
I understand how percentiles work. Your assertion (for both 2015-16 and 2016-17) was (at least in the past) that we were unlucky. We actually were in the 12th percentile for bad luck in 2015-16 and the 45.5th percentile for bad luck overall for 15-16 and 16-17 averaged. Another way of saying the same thing is we were in the 88th percentile for good luck (really good) in 2015-16 and the 54.5th percentile averaged over the two years (above average).
Quote from: HutchwasClutch on June 04, 2017, 10:25:54 AM
Nothing really unique to what's already been said enough.
What has been said? I honestly haven't heard many suggestions on how Wojo could have done better over the past few years. Plenty of complaints but little to no suggestions.
Quote from: Lennys Tap on June 05, 2017, 11:49:36 AM
I understand how percentiles work. Your assertion (for both 2015-16 and 2016-17) was (at least in the past) that we were unlucky. We actually were in the 12th percentile for bad luck in 2015-16 and the 45.5th percentile for bad luck overall for 15-16 and 16-17 averaged. Another way of saying the same thing is we were in the 88th percentile for good luck (really good) in 2015-16 and the 54.5th percentile averaged over the two years (above average).
I said repeatedly that we were 2-3 games away from being a tournament team in 2016. I said repeatedly from before the start of the season that we needed to win 22-23 games to be a tournament team because of our weak non-conference schedule. Had things broken differently in three specific games (Belmont, DePaul, Creighton) we would have been in, but while that is true, I don't believe I categorized it the way you are describing. Feel free to look through my old posts and prove me wrong.
My contention for 2017 is that we were closer to having more wins than we were to having more losses. In terms of "close" games, which I feel is a two possession or OT game, we had a 3-6 record. That doesn't include the 8-point loss at Butler in which we had an 88.3% chance of winning in the second half. If one of the seasons came down to luck, it was last year.
Lennys, since you probably won't look it up, I did. Here's a salient portion of a post of mine from March of 2016, when we pretty much knew we would be out:
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 07, 2016, 02:25:29 PM
First of all, the schedule left us with zero margin for error. Tower points out had we beat Belmont, Creighton, and DePaul at home we'd be in. That's probably true, but those are the ONLY three games we lost that were decided by two possessions or less all season.
Marquette went 7-3 in one possession games and 11-3 in two possession games. Because of the weak schedule and subsequently weak RPI and SOS numbers, we couldn't afford to lose any of the games that were decided in the final minute.
You assert I called us unlucky to not be in. You are misremembering. I pointed out that we were very good in two-possession games. I knew exactly how lucky we were that year and that while we may not have been far from the tourney, it was only because of our success rate in close games.
For what it's worth, our winning percentage in two-possession games went from 78.6% in 2016 to 33.3% in 2017. That's a pretty stark difference in terms of luck.
On paper 7th place seems about right, though I think the difference between 2nd and 7th is going to be pretty slim.
Some things that can't be measured (well) in paper that could push us up or down.
The luck statistic. Despite being a very unlucky team we managed to make tournament last season. Assuming regression to the mean could help offset some of our losses.
Lower ranked recruits. Recruiting rankings get pretty inaccurate after the top 40 and very inaccurate after the top 100. If our recruits play to their rankings, we are probably a bubble team. If one or two of them are gems we could be talking about a high seed.
Lack of senior leadership or experience. With only one senior on the roster, and the one not being a team leader (based on what I've been told) it could have a negative impact on us.
All Wojo guys. Whether you like em or not, I think it's pretty obvious that Buzz and Wojo have different styles and recruiting priorities. The buzz guys embraced Wojo but I do think playing for the coach who recruited you is often a positive thing. Will it translate into better than expected performances on the court? We will see.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on June 05, 2017, 12:19:32 PM
On paper 7th place seems about right, though I think the difference between 2nd and 7th is going to be pretty slim.
Yep, and it's only right that we are tabbed to finish in 7th. #UnderdogsForLife.
Quote from: brewcity77 on June 05, 2017, 12:06:28 PM
I said repeatedly that we were 2-3 games away from being a tournament team in 2016. I said repeatedly from before the start of the season that we needed to win 22-23 games to be a tournament team because of our weak non-conference schedule. Had things broken differently in three specific games (Belmont, DePaul, Creighton) we would have been in, but while that is true, I don't believe I categorized it the way you are describing. Feel free to look through my old posts and prove me wrong.
I agree that it's accurate that you "repeatedly" said that we were 2-3 games from making the tournament in 2015-16 and that had things "broken differently" (i.e., we had some good luck) vs Belmont, DePaul, Creighton we were in. You did this, though, without acknowledging the 7 or 8 "coin flip" games we won that year. Luck being equal we were a "fair value" 18-15 or 17-16 team. We were extremely lucky and had no business being anywhere near the tourney (except by luck), but the picture that you repeatedly painted suggested differently.
My version (that we were much better than our record in 2016-17 and much worse than it in 2015-16 was one agreed upon by Pomeroy, Sagerin and the NCAA/NIT selection committee. Squeaking out wins against a bottom feeder (DePaul) and a mid major (Belmont) on top of our other 7 or 8 "coin flip" wins wasn't going to (for example) move us into the top 80 in Pomeroy. The fact that we didn't even sniff the NIT argues that the committee would have seen the forest (our true value) for the trees (what would have been an incredibly lucky final record).
Look, you're a fan and one of our best. Massaging the facts in our favor isn't a crime - as long as you know that's what you're doing, it's OK by me.
Quote from: Lennys Tap on June 05, 2017, 01:18:42 PMYou did this, though, without acknowledging the 7 or 8 "coin flip" games we won that year
That's absolutely false. Look at the post above. I specifically acknowledged our 7-3 record in one-possession games and 11-3 record in two-possession games. That post was from March 7, 2016.
Look back at the second post I made. I was up front and clear about the "coin flip" games we won that year.
Well if Georgetown had any hopes of softening their landing, they are gone now. Tremont Waters officially is taking his talents elsewhere. To LSU, who we may see in Maui.
With our offense, we need our defense to be luckier (or better).
Quote from: Jay Bee on June 03, 2017, 10:56:03 AM
Heldt 6'10" 250
John 6'9" 240
Harry 6'11" 250
Ike 6'9" 230
We've gotten bigger (nh)
Morrow will "weigh in" during practices, I suspect.
Quote from: brewcity77 on June 05, 2017, 01:27:37 PM
That's absolutely false. Look at the post above. I specifically acknowledged our 7-3 record in one-possession games and 11-3 record in two-possession games. That post was from March 7, 2016.
Look back at the second post I made. I was up front and clear about the "coin flip" games we won that year.
Indeed you did - in that post. I apologize as I did not recall that acknowledgement/admission. I recalled many posts by you about how close we were that didn't include how lucky we were. I don't have the energy to search, but if my recollection is wrong my apologies for that also.