MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: MikeDeanesDarkGlasses on February 23, 2017, 07:58:22 PM
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The worst RPI of any team that didn't win their conf. tourney to make the NCAA tournament was a ranking of #72 by Syracuse last year. MU is at 69 approx right now which means they've got to win out in the regular season to ensure a bid. Historically, bubble teams have RPI's ranging from 50s - 70s to give context.
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If you actually paid any attention to college basketball, you would realize its one of the softest bubbles in NCAA history. 10 conference wins gets us in.
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The worst RPI of any team that didn't win their conf. tourney to make the NCAA tournament was a ranking of #72 by Syracuse last year. MU is at 69 approx right now which means they've got to win out in the regular season to ensure a bid. Historically, bubble teams have RPI's ranging from 50s - 70s to give context.
(http://i.lvme.me/v8ccqht.jpg)
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The worst RPI of any team that didn't win their conf. tourney to make the NCAA tournament was a ranking of #72 by Syracuse last year. MU is at 69 approx right now which means they've got to win out in the regular season to ensure a bid. Historically, bubble teams have RPI's ranging from 50s - 70s to give context.
Last year Syracuse had the worst AT-LARGE RPI ever. They were a 10 seed ... and they also made the Final 4.
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1 win gets them to at least 68, which is a better RPI than Cuse had last year. And the committee cares less and less about raw RPI every year. Thankfully for MU, the more forward looking metrics all have MU in the low 30s, and frankly those probably means just as much if not more than RPI.
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Last year Syracuse had the worst AT-LARGE RPI ever. They were a 10 seed ... and they also made the Final 4.
I've wondered if Cuses run last season will encourage a move away from RPI. No idea if there's a connection
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Besides, these are the days of Brexit and Comrade Twitler and Cubbies and cats at effen Westminster. Up is down and down is up.
Given this, our best chance is to go 0-3 and then lose our BET opener by 40!
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If you actually paid any attention to college basketball, you would realize its one of the softest bubbles in NCAA history. 10 conference wins gets us in.
Almost as soft as your takes. Charmin here please!!!!
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Almost as soft as your takes. Charmin here please!!!!
Except he is correct.
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Almost as soft as your takes. Charmin here please!!!!
Did you sh*t yourself?
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Except he is correct.
A soft bubble only means more volatility on the fringes. MU isn't in yet and how could they be a guaranteed seed right now? Historically, they're on the outside looking in right now. My point is that they're going to have to win out to make it.
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A soft bubble only means more volatility on the fringes. MU isn't in yet and how could they be a guaranteed seed right now? Historically, they're on the outside looking in right now. My point is that they're going to have to win out to make it.
109 out of 117 bracketologists say Marquette is in right now. http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
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A soft bubble only means more volatility on the fringes. MU isn't in yet and how could they be a guaranteed seed right now? Historically, they're on the outside looking in right now. My point is that they're going to have to win out to make it.
I agree with this analysis.
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I agree with this analysis.
I think you and the Dank One don't understand how RPI works. You have to remember that RPI isn't just about winning and losing. It is about the quality of teams you play. For example, when California plays Oregon State tomorrow, their RPI will go down, no matter the outcome. If they win, it will drop 5 spots. If they lose, it will drop 18 spots. On the other hand, when Creighton plays at Villanova on Saturday, their RPI will go up, no matter what. If they lose, it will go up by 1. If they win it will go up by 5. With three quality opponents left, two on the road, it is almost impossible for Marquette's RPI to drop. I used RPI Wizard to run some scenarios:
If we go 0-3, our RPI will only drop 13 spots to 81. Definitely out of the tourney but in the NIT barring a ton of autobids.
If we go 1-2, our RPI WILL STAY THE SAME AT 68. So win one, and our RPI is low enough to meet DarkGoggles' threshold of 50s to 70s. Combined with 4 to 7 (depending on how our opponents finish) top 50 wins and a weak bubble, that is a solid chance at a bid.
If we go 2-1, our RPI will be 54-58 depending on which two we beat. We are dancing, end of story (Unless we somehow meet Depaul in the BET and lose and even then I think we still make it).
If we go 3-0, our RPI will be 47. We are looking at a seed in the 7-9 range.
Now RPI Wizard is not perfect. It assumes all the other matches will come up chalk. Everything could go sideways in the last two weeks. But it is not inaccurate enough to make your assertion that we need to win out correct.
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If you actually paid any attention to college basketball, you would realize its one of the softest bubbles in NCAA history. 10 conference wins gets us in.
Why do you have to say, "If you actually paid any attention to college basketball"? Aren't you better than that?
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If you actually paid any attention to college basketball, you would realize its one of the softest bubbles in NCAA history. 10 conference wins gets us in.
I understand what you are saying, but we really do not know how soft the bubble is until the final few games are played. Some teams will step up and it is likely some teams will play themselves out. At this point there is a huge difference between MU finishing 2-1 and MU finishing 1-2.
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A soft bubble only means more volatility on the fringes. MU isn't in yet and how could they be a guaranteed seed right now? Historically, they're on the outside looking in right now. My point is that they're going to have to win out to make it.
And our point is that you're wrong.
Please please please spend some time looking at the field and list off to me the 68 teams and their resume that somehow wouldn't include a 10-8 Big East team. You'll quickly understand that finding more deserving teams will be, well impossible. And, remember, RPI is one tool. Also consider Kenpom, top 50 wins, sagrin, strength of record, road and neutral record, conference record, etc. You'll quickly figure out that MU is safely in the field in all those metrics besides RPI, which as TAMU explained, really only needs one W to improve to where MU needs it, and 2 to be very safe.
That's just the facts.
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109 out of 117 bracketologists say Marquette is in right now. http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
The same site shows over half of brackets have Syracuse in with a 76 RPI. By itself, RPI isn't a great predictor anymore of who makes the tournament.
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Why are people criticizing the OP, when it was a very valid point? We all want to make the tourney!
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Guys don't fight #TheNarrative from Sir Deane
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Why are people criticizing the OP, when it was a very valid point? We all want to make the tourney!
Because they don't need to win out to get a bid, therefore it isn't a valid point. In fact, they very well may not even need to win 2/3 to get in!
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Last year Syracuse had the worst AT-LARGE RPI ever. They were a 10 seed ... and they also made the Final 4.
That means if we are a 10 seed we are making the tourney
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That means if we are a 10 seed we are making the tourney
Big, if true
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Why are people criticizing the OP, when it was a very valid point? We all want to make the tourney!
Because he's wrong, and facts still do matter (even the non-alternative kind).
Just read TAMU's post - not because he's a wonderful man (though he is) but because he employs actual facts. 2-1, we are a lock.
#actualfacts
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Why are people criticizing the OP, when it was a very valid point? We all want to make the tourney!
Because it is a mathematically invalid point.
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Because he's wrong, and facts still do matter (even the non-alternative kind).
Just read TAMU's post - not because he's a wonderful man (though he is) but because he employs actual facts. 2-1, we are a lock.
#actualfacts
Aw 82, you're going to make me blush
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JUST WIN BABY!!!
Win out the regular season and one in the BET and we're in.
More than one win in the BET with a run the table schedule and we're arguing about seeding.
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Few things...
- People tend to forget that two of the top 25 RPI teams last year (Louisville & SMU) were ineligible for the tournament. So this certainly helped contributed to Syracuse/Tulsa getting in.
- There were also 3 mid-major teams (St Mary's, San Diego State, and Valpo) that had RPI's in the 29-31 range and still missed the tournament. And that was even with Louisville & SMU being excluded..
- Take care of Providence on Saturday, and win 1 of the next 3 games (X, Creighton, or 1st round B/E tournament). That should be enough to keep our RPI under 70, and get us in.
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JUST WIN BABY!!!
Win out the regular season and one in the BET and we're in.
More than one win in the BET with a run the table schedule and we're arguing about seeding.
(http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/bFFJysJ.gif)
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Because he's wrong, and facts still do matter (even the non-alternative kind).
Just read TAMU's post - not because he's a wonderful man (though he is) but because he employs actual facts. 2-1, we are a lock.
#actualfacts
Can you prove he is either of those things? I mean, we can't just go throwing these types of adjectives around willie nillie otherwise TAMU might start believing it and do less hard work that allows this board to be actually interesting/useful and support my inherent laziness.
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JUST WIN BABY!!!
Win out the regular season and one in the BET and we're in.
More than one win in the BET with a run the table schedule and we're arguing about seeding.
I agree with this analysis.
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Can you prove he is either of those things? I mean, we can't just go throwing these types of adjectives around willie nillie otherwise TAMU might start believing it and do less hard work that allows this board to be actually interesting/useful and support my inherent laziness.
(https://media.giphy.com/media/f6CWTmcuWZnYA/giphy.gif)
;D
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(https://media.giphy.com/media/f6CWTmcuWZnYA/giphy.gif)
;D
Selfie
(http://gifsec.com/wp-content/uploads/GIF/2014/07/thinking-hard-gif.gif)
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(https://media.giphy.com/media/f6CWTmcuWZnYA/giphy.gif)
;D
Selfie
(http://gifsec.com/wp-content/uploads/GIF/2014/07/thinking-hard-gif.gif)
Girls, girls... you're both pretty. Now can we get back to the matter of wht the f^@k we're even here in the first place?
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JUST WIN BABY!!!
Win out the regular season and one in the BET and we're in.
More than one win in the BET with a run the table schedule and we're arguing about seeding.
or we can just win the BET
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The worst RPI of any team that didn't win their conf. tourney to make the NCAA tournament was a ranking of #72 by Syracuse last year. MU is at 69 approx right now which means they've got to win out in the regular season to ensure a bid. Historically, bubble teams have RPI's ranging from 50s - 70s to give context.
No. you don't understand how RPI works & is calculated.
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I would like those here that believe it will take MU winning the 3 remaining games to get in, explain what their rationale is for that?? Now I will be the first to admit, I do NOT and never have trusted the committee, so on that basis alone, it may take MU 5 more wins to get in.
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I would like those here that believe it will take MU winning the 3 remaining games to get in, explain what their rationale is for that?? Now I will be the first to admit, I do NOT and never have trusted the committee, so on that basis alone, it may take MU 5 more wins to get in.
Considering how weak the bubble is if we get 2 or 3 more wins i think we should be in but i do agree with you and i don't trust the committee either. We all just want to be in
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I would like those here that believe it will take MU winning the 3 remaining games to get in, explain what their rationale is for that?? Now I will be the first to admit, I do NOT and never have trusted the committee, so on that basis alone, it may take MU 5 more wins to get in.
There are no logical rationale that a 10-8 / 19-12 BE team doesn't make the tourney. ZERO.
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If the Warriors go 10-8 in BE, and 1-1 in the BE Tournament, they should be in the NCAA (almost a lock, but you never know).
If the Warriors go 9-9, and 0-1 in the BE Tournament, they'll probably be in the NIT (depends on other bubble teams)
Interesting how it all comes down to one or two games over the next two weeks.
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Girls, girls... you're both pretty. Now can we get back to the matter of wht the f^@k we're even here in the first place?
+1
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Girls, girls... you're both pretty. Now can we get back to the matter of wht the f^@k we're even here in the first place?
Well I'm here because daddy loved mommy very much, and daddy put his ...
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I would like those here that believe it will take MU winning the 3 remaining games to get in, explain what their rationale is for that?? Now I will be the first to admit, I do NOT and never have trusted the committee, so on that basis alone, it may take MU 5 more wins to get in.
I don't believe it, but my guess is the biggest rationale is the belief in the importance of RPI/nonconference strength of schedule. Even with winning only 2, we're still in the mid-50s for RPI, with a non-conference SOS in the 200s.
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If the Warriors go 10-8 in BE, and 1-1 in the BE Tournament, they should be in the NCAA (almost a lock, but you never know).
If the Warriors go 9-9, and 0-1 in the BE Tournament, they'll probably be in the NIT (depends on other bubble teams)
Interesting how it all comes down to one or two games over the next two weeks.
Gettysburg, Midway, Normandy, Hue City, i drang, it always comes down to a big battle and a little luck never hurts. Everything that has gone before is just lessons learned.
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I would like those here that believe it will take MU winning the 3 remaining games to get in, explain what their rationale is for that?? Now I will be the first to admit, I do NOT and never have trusted the committee, so on that basis alone, it may take MU 5 more wins to get in.
Also not one of those people, but I'm guessing they still think you need 20 wins to make the NCAAs.
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I would like those here that believe it will take MU winning the 3 remaining games to get in, explain what their rationale is for that?? Now I will be the first to admit, I do NOT and never have trusted the committee, so on that basis alone, it may take MU 5 more wins to get in.
In general I don't trust the committee. So my belief is we need to win out which gets us to 20 plus a BET win that gets us to 21 for Margin of safety. Pure optics. Also winning out ensures a better more competitive resume. I would feel better with 22 wins but this is an unusual year with the mid majors not being strong.
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NCAA Checks Its Bracket Math
Experts agree the Rating Percentage Index, or RPI, is outdated. Now analysts and mathematicians are trying to devise a better system for picking the tournament teams
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ncaa-checks-its-bracket-math-1487970103?mod=e2tw
When the selection committee convenes next month to pick teams for this year’s tournament, it will again lean heavily on a 36-year-old formula called Rating Percentage Index. Used since 1981, it attempts to take 351 Division I teams that play vastly different schedules and rank them based on their performance and the quality of their opponents.
Despite numerous tweaks over time, it has faced frequent criticism for being outdated in today’s world of rapidly advancing sports analysis. Unlike more sophisticated metrics, RPI only accounts for whether a team wins, not the margin of victory, and is widely considered to use an overly simplistic method for determining schedule strength.
Changes to this archaic system could be in place as early as next March. To devise alternatives, the NCAA last month brought together some of the most prominent analysts and mathematicians in the college basketball world.
“The goal of this process is to evaluate whether there is benefit to utilizing a composite metric in lieu of what we’re doing,” said Ohio athletic director Jim Schaus, who represented the selection committee at the meeting. “We thought it made a lot of sense to at least make the effort. There was a lot of brainpower in that room.”
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Going forward, the committee should simply query Scoop. MU with a #1 seed in Indy. Sounds fair to me.
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Going forward, the committee should simply query Scoop. MU with a #1 seed in Indy. Sounds fair to me.
Why would they give a #1 seed to a team that fired their head coach and top assistant at least four different times this year?
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Syracuse got in with a 79 RPI, because the committee saw something in them and they were right. It does not mean that the committee would see the same thing in MU if they finished with an RPI in the 70's. We really do not know why the committee picked Syracuse.
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Why would they give a #1 seed to a team that fired their head coach and top assistant at least four different times this year?
Big necks and easy huddles?
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Syracuse got in with a 79 RPI, because the committee saw something in them and they were right. It does not mean that the committee would see the same thing in MU if they finished with an RPI in the 70's. We really do not know why the committee picked Syracuse.
The committee knew 'cuse was going tot he final Four???
If they are really this good, maybe the committee should fill out Buffett's billion dollar bracket challenge.
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(http://cloudfront.sportsgrid.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/fridgeperry.jpg)
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In general I don't trust the committee. So my belief is we need to win out which gets us to 20 plus a BET win that gets us to 21 for Margin of safety. Pure optics. Also winning out ensures a better more competitive resume. I would feel better with 22 wins but this is an unusual year with the mid majors not being strong.
If your argument is, "I don't trust the committee, there always seems to be a team with a good resume left out in the cold and I don't want to be that team." I agree with you. But that is different from "They need to win three games and a game in the BET in order to get in."
Your win counting is also misguided and has really high numbers. You think 22 wins is necessary to feel safe in a usual year?
Since getting into the Big East, here is the number of regular season wins and seeds Marquette has gotten:
05-06: 20 wins, 7 seed
06-07: 24 wins, 8 seed
07-08: 24 wins, 6 seed
08-09: 24 wins, 6 seed
09-10: 22 wins, 6 seed
10-11: 20 wins, 11 seed
11-12: 25 wins, 3 seed
12-13: 23 wins, 3 seed
13-14: 17 wins, n/a
14-15: 13 wins, n/a
15-16: 20 wins, n/a
You'll notice two things:
1. # of wins don't matta. We got 20 wins in three different seasons. Once it was a 7 seed, once an 11 seed, and once we missed the NIT. We got a lower seed in 06-07 despite having 4 more wins than 05-06.
2. Anytime we've got 22 or more wins in a season, we have been an upper seed...aka nowhere near the bubble. You don't need 22 wins to feel safe. Last season there were teams that got in with less than 20 wins.
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If your argument is, "I don't trust the committee, there always seems to be a team with a good resume left out in the cold and I don't want to be that team." I agree with you. But that is different from "They need to win three games and a game in the BET in order to get in."
Your win counting is also misguided and has really high numbers. You think 22 wins is necessary to feel safe in a usual year?
Since getting into the Big East, here is the number of regular season wins and seeds Marquette has gotten:
05-06: 20 wins, 7 seed
06-07: 24 wins, 8 seed
07-08: 24 wins, 6 seed
08-09: 24 wins, 6 seed
09-10: 22 wins, 6 seed
10-11: 20 wins, 11 seed
11-12: 25 wins, 3 seed
12-13: 23 wins, 3 seed
13-14: 17 wins, n/a
14-15: 13 wins, n/a
15-16: 20 wins, n/a
You'll notice two things:
1. # of wins don't matta. We got 20 wins in three different seasons. Once it was a 7 seed, once an 11 seed, and once we missed the NIT. We got a lower seed in 06-07 despite having 4 more wins than 05-06.
2. Anytime we've got 22 or more wins in a season, we have been an upper seed...aka nowhere near the bubble. You don't need 22 wins to feel safe. Last season there were teams that got in with less than 20 wins.
Wojo is not well respected by the committee. They look at him as sort of a Duke D..K. They are going to pass out favors to guys who are well respected such as Ed Cooley. So we need to be as bullet proof as possible. If this was Buzz , who is a proven good guy, I would be more comfortable at a lower number.
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Wojo is not well respected by the committee. They look at him as sort of a Duke D..K. They are going to pass out favors to guys who are well respected such as Ed Cooley. So we need to be as bullet proof as possible. If this was Buzz , who is a proven good guy I would be more comfortable at a lower number.
Lol.
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Wojo is not well respected by the committee. They look at him as sort of a Duke D..K. They are going to pass out favors to guys who are well respected such as Ed Cooley. So we need to be as bullet proof as possible. If this was Buzz , who is a proven good guy, I would be more comfortable at a lower number.
Based upon your comments here and in the rape thread, you clearly were never captain of the debate team.
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Syracuse got in with a 79 RPI, because the committee saw something in them and they were right. It does not mean that the committee would see the same thing in MU if they finished with an RPI in the 70's. We really do not know why the committee picked Syracuse.
False
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Syracuse got in with a 79 RPI, because the committee saw something in them and they were right. It does not mean that the committee would see the same thing in MU if they finished with an RPI in the 70's. We really do not know why the committee picked Syracuse.
Didn't it have to do with missing Boeheim and the committee ignored those games? It was due to an NCAA suspension so a lot of people were ticked about it.
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Wojo is not well respected by the committee. They look at him as sort of a Duke D..K. They are going to pass out favors to guys who are well respected such as Ed Cooley. So we need to be as bullet proof as possible. If this was Buzz , who is a proven good guy, I would be more comfortable at a lower number.
LOL. Tell us about the committees' families.
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Syracuse got in with a 79 RPI, because the committee saw something in them and they were right.
Disagree. They were wrong. Syracuse had no business being in the tournament last just. None whatsoever.
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Wojo is not well respected by the committee. They look at him as sort of a Duke D..K. They are going to pass out favors to guys who are well respected such as Ed Cooley. So we need to be as bullet proof as possible. If this was Buzz , who is a proven good guy, I would be more comfortable at a lower number.
Does the committee like Ritchie McKay?
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Wojo is not well respected by the committee. They look at him as sort of a Duke D..K. They are going to pass out favors to guys who are well respected such as Ed Cooley. So we need to be as bullet proof as possible. If this was Buzz , who is a proven good guy, I would be more comfortable at a lower number.
Congrats you made Scoop Takes
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Congrats you made Scoop Takes
Anyone else see that Todd Townsend is following it as well?
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Anyone else see that Todd Townsend is following it as well?
We need to hire Todd Townsend.
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Because it is a mathematically invalid point.
How so? You fail to prove any point whatsoever. Not to mention, the Tourney committee isn't 100% mathematical when diagnosing a team. Hence, why you fail to grasp college basketball - the ever important eye test.
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How so? You fail to prove any point whatsoever. Not to mention, the Tourney committee isn't 100% mathematical when diagnosing a team. Hence, why you fail to grasp college basketball - the ever important eye test.
This made me laugh. Well done.
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How so? You fail to prove any point whatsoever. Not to mention, the Tourney committee isn't 100% mathematical when diagnosing a team. Hence, why you fail to grasp college basketball - the ever important eye test.
Your original point was that our RPI was too high and that we would need to win out in order to have an RPI worthy of a tournament berth. I showed you that you were incorrect. Please show me where I was wrong.
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We need to hire Todd Townsend.
In what capacity? And do you mean Marquette or MUScoop? Are you an administrator in the athletic department? And if 'we' acted on every suggestion that you have for MU......... oy.
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In what capacity? And do you mean Marquette or MUScoop? Are you an administrator in the athletic department? And if 'we' acted on every suggestion that you have for MU......... oy.
As a coach. Our number one prospect is coming up in a few short years.....Zaire
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As a coach. Our number one prospect is coming up in a few short years.....Zaire
LOL
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Disagree. They were wrong. Syracuse had no business being in the tournament last just. None whatsoever.
Well everyone was surprised that they were picked and would of argued that the committee was wrong. However, Syracuse's play in the tournament made them right.
Of course they were wrong on every higher seed that lost in the first round.
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Well everyone was surprised that they were picked and would of argued that the committee was wrong. However, Syracuse's play in the tournament made them right.
Of course they were wrong on every higher seed that lost in the first round.
No. Syracuse's play did not make them right. You don't earn the right after the tournament starts. Syracuse had no business in that tournament. It was a poor decision and even winning the title wouldn't have justified their inclusion because what happens after Selection Sunday is irrelevant. Just like VCU didn't deserve a bid the year they made the Final Four.
Every year there are bad calls, and every year some of those bad calls win a game or two (or four). That doesn't change the bad decision.
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As a coach. Our number one prospect is coming up in a few short years.....Zaire
Just stop with the performance already
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Well I'm here because daddy loved mommy very much, and daddy put his ...
(https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/cf/7b/5e/cf7b5eeff23b5930bc50e01f6377ab26.jpg)
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As a coach. Our number one prospect is coming up in a few short years.....Zaire
Now I know you're just doing a bit.