I'm surprised MU is -5 in Vegas.
Who would y'all take?
Is Howard and Reinhardt playing?
Quote from: JD on December 27, 2016, 07:41:20 PM
I'm surprised MU is -5 in Vegas.
Who would y'all take?
Is Howard and Reinhardt playing?
Would not bet on this one but no way would I take Marquette minus five. What was over/under?
The line is usually close to the Pomeroy predicted score so not surprised.
They predict MU by 6.
Quote from: MarquetteDano on December 27, 2016, 07:59:35 PM
Would not bet on this one but no way would I take Marquette minus five. What was over/under?
Started at 160, now it's up to 163
Quote from: JD on December 27, 2016, 07:41:20 PM
I'm surprised MU is -5 in Vegas.
Who would y'all take?
Is Howard and Reinhardt playing?
We're at home and ranked higher than them in KenPom. -5 seems about right. I predicted an 8 point win over on PT.
We got this. Relax boys.
My LV screen says the over/under opened 163.5 off shore and has been bet down in LV to 160. I would like the under if I be my alma mater's games. I don't bet them though.
Really hoping GTOWN fans bet it down to -1.
Quote from: VegasWarrior77 on December 27, 2016, 10:53:57 PM
My LV screen says the over/under opened 163.5 off shore and has been bet down in LV to 160. I would like the under if I be my alma mater's games. I don't bet them though.
Under interesting at 163.5. 160 too tough to call.
Quote from: JD
Is Howard and Reinhardt playing?
/quote]
Always the key variable.
MU by 5 sounds right. MU by 1 at the end will be ok with me.
If we lose, at least I have the MUscoop meltdown to look forward to.
The game before us tonight is Depaul at Nova.
The line is Nova -26 (o/u 144)
This has to be a record for a BE conference game betting line.
(Side note, how does one bet -26? If Nova is up up 30 with 2 minutes to go and run in the walk-ons and win by 25, the bettor has no one to blame but himself for betting such a line.)
Quote from: bilsu on December 28, 2016, 07:45:15 AM
If we lose, at least I have the MUscoop meltdown to look forward to.
The "real" reason sea levels are rising.
Quote from: Yukon Cornelius on December 28, 2016, 09:09:43 AM
The game before us tonight is Depaul at Nova.
The line is Nova -26 (o/u 144)
This has to be a record for a BE conference game betting line.
(Side note, how does one bet -26? If Nova is up up 30 with 2 minutes to go and run in the walk-ons and win by 25, the bettor has no one to blame but himself for betting such a line.)
I would bet the -26. You just posted on another thread about how poor DePaul is playing this year and nova is on another level.
Still hoping the MU line drops a bit so I can bet that game.
Paint touches has MU by 8, so I am definitely taking MU and giving the points.
Overall kenpom ratings are similar but this is a bad matchup for us and I have a bad feeling about the game.
We defend the 3 terribly and Pryor & Peak are excellent shooters. I could see them penetrating and getting to the line at will as well. Add in that we have not defended home court well at all under the Wojo regime and I would not give up points here.
Anybody know what MU's record against the spread is?
My guess would be:
"Wins" against Vandy, Howard, IUPUI, Western Carolina, Georgia, and SIUE
"Losses" against Michigan, Pitt, Houston Baptist, Fresno State, UW, and St. Francis
But I really have no idea. If that's what it is, that's 6-6. Which means 1) Vegas is, as usual, pretty much right on, and 2) I wouldn't bet MU games with any kind of confidence whatsoever.
Quote from: Ellenson Family Reunion on December 28, 2016, 09:46:56 AM
Overall kenpom ratings are similar but this is a bad matchup for us and I have a bad feeling about the game.
We defend the 3 terribly and Pryor & Peak are excellent shooters. I could see them penetrating and getting to the line at will as well. Add in that we have not defended home court well at all under the Wojo regime and I would not give up points here.
We'll need an offense firing on all cylinders. It would be nice if we could mitigate the effects of an offense firing on some cylinders with decent defense. Still holding out hope that Wojo can transform them into an average defense (as he indicated is their ceiling). It's still early yet...right?
Quote from: Windyplayer on December 28, 2016, 10:16:11 AM
Still holding out hope that Wojo can transform them into an average defense (as he indicated is their ceiling). It's still early yet...right?
Yup, and he's had a lot of time with the team the past couple weeks. I'm hopeful...
Quote from: Windyplayer on December 28, 2016, 10:16:11 AM
We'll need an offense firing on all cylinders. It would be nice if we could mitigate the effects of an offense firing on some cylinders with decent defense. Still holding out hope that Wojo can transform them into an average defense (as he indicated is their ceiling). It's still early yet...right?
Agreed! Our splash bros (Howard & Hauser) best be splashin' tonight! In layman's terms: leave no bologna undropped.
Here you go.....http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/teams/team-page.cfm/team/marquette
Quote from: wadesworld on December 28, 2016, 09:48:29 AM
Anybody know what MU's record against the spread is?
My guess would be:
"Wins" against Vandy, Howard, IUPUI, Western Carolina, Georgia, and SIUE
"Losses" against Michigan, Pitt, Houston Baptist, Fresno State, UW, and St. Francis
But I really have no idea. If that's what it is, that's 6-6. Which means 1) Vegas is, as usual, pretty much right on, and 2) I wouldn't bet MU games with any kind of confidence whatsoever.
Is Katin playing tonight? Does the answer to that affect the spread?
Quote from: Ellenson Family Reunion on December 28, 2016, 09:46:56 AM
Overall kenpom ratings are similar but this is a bad matchup for us and I have a bad feeling about the game.
We defend the 3 terribly and Pryor & Peak are excellent shooters. I could see them penetrating and getting to the line at will as well. Add in that we have not defended home court well at all under the Wojo regime and I would not give up points here.
Derrickson scares me
Quote from: Ellenson Family Reunion on December 28, 2016, 10:26:48 AM
Agreed! Our splash bros (Howard & Hauser) best be splashin' tonight! In layman's terms: leave no bologna undropped.
Thanks for the translation. We're on the same page now.
P.S. I just had thoughts of our conference opener against Seton Hall at the BC last year. Won't be going into this one as confident (defense mechanism), but I expect them to get off to a little bit of a better start in conference this year.
Quote from: tower912 on December 28, 2016, 10:38:26 AM
Is Katin playing tonight? Does the answer to that affect the spread?
Wojo said he expects him to play.
Quote from: tower912 on December 28, 2016, 10:38:26 AM
Is Katin playing tonight? Does the answer to that affect the spread?
Was told that Katin was available for SIUE but was held out just to be safe. Unless the info was wrong or something has happened since, I would imagine he is ready to go.
Quote from: MuMark on December 28, 2016, 11:17:43 AM
Wojo said he expects him to play.
Was a participant at the shoot around this morning with no walking boot.
Quote from: fjm on December 28, 2016, 09:36:51 AM
I would bet the -26. You just posted on another thread about how poor DePaul is playing this year and nova is on another level.
Still hoping the MU line drops a bit so I can bet that game.
Agreed that this year's Depaul team is very bad even by there rock bottom standards.
Problem is when Nova gets up by 20 or 30, will they use that opportunity to play the back of their bench and walk-ons to get them more game time?
They are the defending national champions and the #1 team. They don't need to press it to a 40 point win because they don't need to prove anything. They have no eye test to worry about. Instead they have to manage a blowout game for injury potential and give the reserves playing time.
That is what makes -26 bets such a bad strategy, you never know what strategy Nova will use when they believe they game is out of reach for Depaul.
Quote from: Yukon Cornelius on December 28, 2016, 12:24:00 PM
Agreed that this year's Depaul team is very bad even by there rock bottom standards.
Problem is when Nova gets up by 20 or 30, they use that opportunity to play the back of their bench and walk-ons to get them more game time.
They are the defending national champions and the #1 team. They don't need to press it to a 40 point win because they don't need to prove anything. They have no eye test to worry about. Instead they have to manage a blowout game for injury potential and give the reserves playing time.
That is what makes -26 bets such a bad strategy, you never know what they strategy Nova will use when they believe they game is out of reach for Depaul.
Oh fudge. That's a good point. I haven't bet that game yet. You're convincing me to stay away.
MU now at -5.5 (going the wrong direction so I probably won't bet it). And the O/U is now at 169.5 (too high)
These are ESPN numbers.
Quote from: fjm on December 28, 2016, 12:25:51 PM
Oh fudge. That's a good point. I haven't bet that game yet. You're convincing me to stay away.
MU now at -5.5 (going the wrong direction so I probably won't bet it). And the O/U is now at 169.5 (too high)
These are ESPN numbers.
Betting Alabama football by giving 49 points makes sense. Saban (like Jimmy Johnson before him) will run up the score until the clock reads 0:00.
Jay Wright and Nova don't strike me as that kind of team. They are playing for the third week of March. Every decision they make is for that purpose. So, this is a game that needs to be managed for the long-term as no statement needs to be made. They need a W and get out with no injuries, nothing else matters.
Now watch Nova win by 50 and make me look bad.
If nova wins by 50 you owe me! ;)
No you're probably right. It's either that or they come out to make a BE is back and you're all screwed statement and just go nuts on DePaul.
Quote from: Jay Bee on December 28, 2016, 10:40:18 AM
Derrickson scares me
Agreed. Jajuan & Haanif will have their hands full with Pryor & Peak, can Sam & Katin do enough to contain Derrickson?
Quote from: Yukon Cornelius on December 28, 2016, 12:38:52 PM
Betting Alabama football by giving 49 points makes sense. Saban (like Jimmy Johnson before him) will run up the score until the clock reads 0:00.
Jay Wright and Nova don't strike me as that kind of team. They are playing for the third week of March. Every decision they make is for that purpose. So, this is a game that needs to be managed for the long-term as no statement needs to be made. They need a W and get out with no injuries, nothing else matters.
Now watch Nova win by 50 and make me look bad.
FWIW, Nova won their BEast opener by 31 a year ago
over/under tonight is 157.5. Opened in some books at 160.
to answer previous question, MU is 6-6 vs spread this season and the over is 7-5
Quote from: Ellenson Family Reunion on December 28, 2016, 02:03:33 PM
Agreed. Jajuan & Haanif will have their hands full with Pryor & Peak, can Sam & Katin do enough to contain Derrickson?
Derrickson has been on a sophomore slump. I'm not worried about him. I think the key match-up is Luke vs Govan. If Like wins, I think we win.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on December 28, 2016, 02:54:35 PM
Derrickson has been on a sophomore slump. I'm not worried about him. I think the key match-up is Luke vs Govan. If Like wins, I think we win.
If Luke can take the spin off his shot he's had the past 3 games.
Gtown is basically a 3-man team and MU has more depth. Unfortunately, Gtown's top 3 will likely be the 3 best players on the court. If one of those guys has an off night and/or gets into foul trouble, MU should win. However, MU's porous defense worries me too much.
I hope I'm completely wrong and MU dominates from start to finish but I'm going to say...
Gtown 78, MU 75
Bad feeling about this one. Between easing Markus and Katin back in, and the week off, I have a feeling MU comes out a little flat and has to chase the game. Will be tough against Georgetown's size.
Hope I'm wrong, but I see Georgetown by 8.
Quote from: MerrittsMustache on December 28, 2016, 03:20:07 PM
Gtown is basically a 3-man team and MU has more depth. Unfortunately, Gtown's top 3 will likely be the 3 best players on the court. If one of those guys has an off night and/or gets into foul trouble, MU should win. However, MU's porous defense worries me too much.
I hope I'm completely wrong and MU dominates from start to finish but I'm going to say...
Gtown 78, MU 75
Yes the defense has to step up, especially with Pryor having the potential to go off.
But, the concern should be Luke's propensity to pick up two quick fouls in first six minutes. If that happens, then Georgetown with Govan/Hayes/Derrickson will dominate the inside. Don't think Heldt can keep up with those guys and he may get as many fouls in fewer minutes. Going to be a tough matchup.
Quote from: MerrittsMustache on December 28, 2016, 03:20:07 PM
Gtown is basically a 3-man team and MU has more depth. Unfortunately, Gtown's top 3 will likely be the 3 best players on the court. If one of those guys has an off night and/or gets into foul trouble, MU should win. However, MU's porous defense worries me too much.
I hope I'm completely wrong and MU dominates from start to finish but I'm going to say...
Gtown 78, MU 75
One day Govan might be one of the best three players on the court. I don't think he is there yet.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on December 28, 2016, 03:42:42 PM
One day Govan might be one of the best three players on the court. I don't think he is there yet.
To quote from the Paint Touches article posted by TAMU...
"Govan has been known to disappear in games. He only managed 3 points and 0 rebounds against Wisconsin, 2 points, and 1 board against Oklahoma State, and 1 point and 1 rebound against Howard."
Quote from: Windyplayer on December 28, 2016, 04:01:59 PM
To quote from the Paint Touches article posted by TAMU...
"Govan has been known to disappear in games. He only managed 3 points and 0 rebounds against Wisconsin, 2 points, and 1 board against Oklahoma State, and 1 point and 1 rebound against Howard."
While those stats are true, it's worth noting that in those 3 consecutive games, he played 7, 6 and 5 minutes. He had 2 quick fouls vs Wisconsin but wasn't in foul trouble in the other games. Not sure what the deal was for that stretch, but he's averaged 14 points and 8 boards on 63% shooting in the 5 games since.
Quote from: MerrittsMustache on December 28, 2016, 04:10:45 PM
While those stats are true, it's worth noting that in those 3 consecutive games, he played 7, 6 and 5 minutes. He had 2 quick fouls vs Wisconsin but wasn't in foul trouble in the other games. Not sure what the deal was for that stretch, but he's averaged 14 points and 8 boards on 63% shooting in the 5 games since.
This is getting dangerously close to a well-balanced assessment of a player. You must have this message board confused for another.
Making a parlay, taking the points and the under. If it goes south, won't be unhappy cuz they covered.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on December 28, 2016, 02:54:35 PM
Derrickson has been on a sophomore slump. I'm not worried about him. I think the key match-up is Luke vs Govan. If Like wins, I think we win.
He was injured to start the year. He's now healthy and rounding into form. Hopefully his last game is more indicative of what we'll see the rest of the year.
Quote from: mileskishnish72 on December 28, 2016, 04:39:45 PM
Making a parlay, taking the points and the under. If it goes south, won't be unhappy cuz they covered.
MU has only scored under 80 3 times.
Two of those 3 were 75 and 78 points.
Their games have only been UNDER 5 times and those were all cupcakes except Michigan. (Meaning MU covered their half or slowed down late due to the lead and the cupcake didn't cover their half of the bargain.)
I am seriously considering taking the over at 157.5 right now.
Quote from: fjm on December 28, 2016, 05:03:23 PM
MU has only scored under 80 3 times.
Two of those 3 were 75 and 78 points.
Their games have only been UNDER 5 times and those were all cupcakes except Michigan. (Meaning MU covered their half or slowed down late due to the lead and the cupcake didn't cover their half of the bargain.)
I am seriously considering taking the over at 157.5 right now.
I'd take the over. Georgetown plays much higher tempo in its new offense. The only way it is under 157.5 is if we are cold from 3.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on December 28, 2016, 02:54:35 PM
Derrickson has been on a sophomore slump. I'm not worried about him. I think the key match-up is Luke vs Govan. If Like wins, I think we win.
Hmmm....
Under.... waaaay under. That's an L
Quote from: tower912 on December 28, 2016, 09:39:25 AM
Paint touches has MU by 8, so I am definitely taking MU and giving the points.
I expect a share of your winnings ;D
5-1 this year betting on MU.
Took them again tonight. I'll be interested to see the seton hall spread Sunday.