A lot here and elsewhere think it's so impossible to project kids... it's difficult, but if you're been in the gym and have looked at that numbers.. as complementary actions... things become closer to a science than a guess. Impossible? No..
Today's lesson comes from a 2011.. yes, 5 years ago... post.. on this very board:
"btw... Eron Harris (2012) who has run with these kids for Indiana Elite is a nice looking player. If he winds up at a mid major, he may be the man on a team. Not a strong frame, but long and athletic. Drills open deep balls with ease and can attack to the rim or pull up for the j. Active on defense... looks close to 6'4" to me.. fairly versatile. I wonder if a bigger school doesn't eventually snatch him up... so far it's just been mid-majors I think.. but I like the kid a lot (more than any of those I4 jagoffs). "
Eron got put on the second team behind Patterson.. who eventually got creaned.. nonetheless, until late Evansville was his 'biggest' offer... Huggins & Wva swooped in late and got him, but when you talk about gems that the masses passed on, but certain people can see.. this is a great example.
As a soph.. 113.4 ORtg, 24.8 usage. Amazing.
Yogi.. 114.5, 25.0%
Hanner 108.1, 19.2%
Jeremy 92.1, 19.0% [can still be amazing. Crean factor]
As a jr with MSU.. 110.9 and 22.8. What's next?
The idea that "it's impossible" to project Henry in college or the NBA, Ingram in college or the NBA, Eron, etc... that's nonsense.
Quote from: Jay Bee on July 04, 2016, 07:52:46 PM
A lot here and elsewhere think it's so impossible to project kids... it's difficult, but if you're been in the gym and have looked at that numbers.. as complementary actions... things become closer to a science than a guess. Impossible? No..
Today's lesson comes from a 2011.. yes, 5 years ago... post.. on this very board:
"btw... Eron Harris (2012) who has run with these kids for Indiana Elite is a nice looking player. If he winds up at a mid major, he may be the man on a team. Not a strong frame, but long and athletic. Drills open deep balls with ease and can attack to the rim or pull up for the j. Active on defense... looks close to 6'4" to me.. fairly versatile. I wonder if a bigger school doesn't eventually snatch him up... so far it's just been mid-majors I think.. but I like the kid a lot (more than any of those I4 jagoffs). "
Eron got put on the second team behind Patterson.. who eventually got creaned.. nonetheless, until late Evansville was his 'biggest' offer... Huggins & Wva swooped in late and got him, but when you talk about gems that the masses passed on, but certain people can see.. this is a great example.
As a soph.. 113.4 ORtg, 24.8 usage. Amazing.
Yogi.. 114.5, 25.0%
Hanner 108.1, 19.2%
Jeremy 92.1, 19.0% [can still be amazing. Crean factor]
As a jr with MSU.. 110.9 and 22.8. What's next?
The idea that "it's impossible" to project Henry in college or the NBA, Ingram in college or the NBA, Eron, etc... that's nonsense.
What did this have to do with Markus Howard?
Quote from: wadesworld on July 04, 2016, 08:11:18 PM
What did this have to do with Markus Howard?
Folks on here believe "it's impossible to project" how Markus will do.
It's not.
It's not impossible but it is an in exact science. I'm sure they are plenty of guys that you liked who didn't pan out.
Crean sucks
Quote from: MuMark on July 04, 2016, 08:35:30 PM
It's not impossible but it is an in exact science. I'm sure they are plenty of guys that you liked who didn't pan out.
Yep. Jeremy Hollowell I thought was a prime Crean truther. Could he make a guy with tremendous talent but some challenges great? I thought Hollowell would persevere.. he still might? Chris Thomas another.
Still, the guys who didn't turn out (thus far) all have a common theme.. red flags, that were raised along with the initial valuation.. Damontrae Jefferson another one..
Overall, it's a work and in progress and quite good.
But, to put some context on this thread:
Quote from: MU82 on July 04, 2016, 04:36:57 PM
It's too early to even make an educated guess as to how good he'll be.
That's what MU82 said. It's silly.
To think that people that have been watching a guy for 6+ years can't "even make an educated guess as to how good he'll be"? That's nonsense.
Quote from: Jay Bee on July 04, 2016, 08:23:26 PM
Folks on here believe "it's impossible to project" how Markus will do.
It's not.
I see.
I'm excited about Markus. But I've been excited about some other MU guys who didn't do too well. So we'll see.
Quote from: wadesworld on July 04, 2016, 08:41:50 PM
I see.
I'm excited about Markus. But I've been excited about some other MU guys who didn't do too well. So we'll see.
Do you think you'd stand a chance against me one on one, up to 15, 1's and 2's?
I played volleyball with these cats several weeks ago. My fingers straight up split.. is that normal? Had to put NewSkin on 'em to heal it. But I was taller than most of them and slammed that puny ball on their heads (nh)
I believe you could whip me in volleyball.. bball? Me win, no problem bahdee.
Markus.. is it possible he struggles from the field ? yes. I think he'll be solid+++. Looking forward to seeing it unfold.
Quote from: Jay Bee on July 04, 2016, 08:23:26 PM
Folks on here believe "it's impossible to project" how Markus will do.
It's not.
There are a handful of Scoop posters who consistently provide valuable and predictive information on recruits. I place you at the top of that list. And there are many who don't have the eye, the access or the grasp of numbers required to do likewise.
I look forward to your analysis - it's first hand, accurate and insightful. Thanks.
The way I see it is this: These are 17 to 19 year old kids. Most have pretty strong talent to be considered for in Marquette's case, about $225,000 investment. Do we get them all right? Heck no. We don't in business either when we do college hires.
In my time, I've seen Marquette take a chance on Tony Reeder and fall flat on its face. Same for Dean Marquardt. But I also see that we were one of the few schools who saw the talent in DWade and the only one willing to stick its neck out. We did well with the Amigos, with Wes Matthews, less so with Jeronne Maymon.
I think Howard is going to be great, but that's easy to say on the eve of him stepping on campus. Nine months from now, we'll get the first hint.
Quote from: Jay Bee on July 04, 2016, 08:48:25 PM
Do you think you'd stand a chance against me one on one, up to 15, 1's and 2's?
I played volleyball with these cats several weeks ago. My fingers straight up split.. is that normal? Had to put NewSkin on 'em to heal it. But I was taller than most of them and slammed that puny ball on their heads (nh)
I believe you could whip me in volleyball.. bball? Me win, no problem bahdee.
Markus.. is it possible he struggles from the field ? yes. I think he'll be solid+++. Looking forward to seeing it unfold.
Hah I don't play one on one often (can't remember the last time I did) so I have no idea. It's a team game in my book, ai'na? I get to play twice a week, which I think is a good number. It's tough to get hoops in while still getting to bed early. If I could push back starting work until like 10 AM but still getting out at 4:30 (that's the dream hey?) then I would love to play 5 days (including weekends) a week. Unfortunately doesn't work that way. Play pickup every Monday for 2 hours and every Wednesday for an hour and a half...except over the summer (now) am in a league on Wednesday nights.
Split as in they got so dry? I guess my hands have gotten dry playing volleyball, but not anywhere near that dry.
Lenny's, thank you for the kind words
Quote from: dgies9156 on July 04, 2016, 09:21:28 PM
I think Howard is going to be great, but that's easy to say on the eve of him stepping on campus. Nine months from now, we'll get the first hint.
The language of "the first hint" is what's so inflammatory and wrong. Have you been in the gym with him for multiple days? Maybe not. But some have. You think they don't have "the first hint"?
The kid kills it in Arizona, kills it at a top prep school, and it seems every professional watching the U17s (not just the laymen) is raving about what Howard is going to do at Marquette.
If he falls flat on his face, I'll be very surprised. Maybe he won't be a locked in starter from day one, but I think he'll be able to contribute early and when we look back there will be a strong consensus that he outperformed his rankings. Yes, there are surprises, but if this stuff couldn't be predicted, the scouting business wouldn't exist.
Happy 4th!! Wow--I am just curious who on this board or anywhere has said MH doesn't project well?
Yes--trending upwards. Let's leave it at that and watch how the jump to Beast unfolds.
In 3-4 years MH may have the tools to play in the league.......don't think I'm not quoting this as a reference 3-4 years from now to post on scoop either.
Quote from: We R Final Four on July 04, 2016, 10:12:18 PM
Happy 4th!! Wow--I am just curious who on this board or anywhere has said MH doesn't project well?
In this thread, folks have said, "Nine months from now, we'll get the first hint."
They don't believe there can even be a HINT until after a year of college.
It's bizarre.
Quote from: Jay Bee on July 04, 2016, 08:40:59 PM
That's what MU82 said. It's silly.
You called me on it in another thread. I thought about it more and agreed you were right. I clarified my stance. And now you come at me again here in a separate thread. OK then.
You are starting to sound like one of those guys who always has to show how much smarter you are than everybody else. Whatever floats your boat, my friend.
Quote from: MU82 on July 04, 2016, 10:19:44 PM
You called me on it in another thread. I thought about it more and agreed you were right. I clarified my stance. And now you come at me again here in a separate thread. OK then.
You are starting to sound like one of those guys who always has to show how much smarter you are than everybody else. Whatever floats your boat, my friend.
I don't read most of your posts. This is the second time you've done this. I haven't called you out on anything in this thread. I was referencing to someone else. Cripes, get a grip.
Quote from: dgies9156 on July 04, 2016, 09:21:28 PM
The way I see it is this: These are 17 to 19 year old kids. Most have pretty strong talent to be considered for in Marquette's case, about $225,000 investment. Do we get Nine months from now, we'll get the first hint.
See?
dgies156 is who I was talking about.
I'm the one who wants to be 'smarter'? Haha... fall back, bud. (And an apology is in order)
ND sucks
Quote from: Jay Bee on July 04, 2016, 10:18:33 PM
In this thread, folks have said, "Nine months from now, we'll get the first hint."
They don't believe there can even be a HINT until after a year of college.
It's bizarre.
Are you kidding me?
The point is this. I think Mr. Howard has quite a bit of talent or else he would not be on the roster for next year. Period. I want him to do really well in his Warrior career.
What I meant and what you're missing is this: Until we see how he plays with the team; how he fits into Coach Wojo's game and how he reacts to the Big East schedule and some really tough teams; we won't know. A year ago. I knew Henry was going to be someone special. He was. I think Markus probably will be someone really good.
If Dean Marquardt would have redshirted after he wrecked his shoulder and not come back so fast, he might have been at least a second round pick. Look how he killed Notre Dame his senior year.
That was a fun game.
I agree with this analysis.
JB, I too think Markus will be very productive over his 4 years. In your view, what's his greatest weakness right now? What part of his game holds him back at the next level?
I think Scoop is the only obstacle getting in MH's path to greatness.
I watched the 4Th quarter of the quarter final game and all of the championship game and that is all I have seen of Howard. What I noticed was his tendency on offense to run for the three point line and hang out there waving his had for the ball. I did see him make a couple of very impressive twos. It is hard for me to compare him to players who were not on the court with him. However, in spite of his shooting I do not think he has any chance of beating out Carter for the point guard spot. Carter is bigger, stronger and quicker (quickness is the hardest thing for me to judge, but Howard did not blow me away with his quickness) than Howard. Wilson is bigger and quicker than Howard. JJJ is bigger and quicker than Howard. Haanif is bigger than Howard. Than there is Rowsey who is about the same height and has much more experience than Howard. I am not saying that Howard will not become a very good player, but I do believe he does not play much next year, because of the number of experienced guards we have on the team. His strength is three point shooting, but this team already has a lot of three point shooters. I think Wojo is going to still value taking the ball to the basket versus camping shooters on the three point line. However, it is up to the coach to build a team around special talents of players so who knows? Wojo essentially let Henry do what ever he wanted to do, so maybe he will let Howard camp out on the three point line. It is probably harder to judge what Wojo is planning than what Howard's skillset is.
(http://i1.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/226/353/thread.png)
Quote from: bilsu on July 05, 2016, 07:49:20 AM
I watched the 4Th quarter of the quarter final game and all of the championship game and that is all I have seen of Howard. What I noticed was his tendency on offense to run for the three point line and hang out there waving his had for the ball. I did see him make a couple of very impressive twos. It is hard for me to compare him to players who were not on the court with him. However, in spite of his shooting I do not think he has any chance of beating out Carter for the point guard spot. Carter is bigger, stronger and quicker (quickness is the hardest thing for me to judge, but Howard did not blow me away with his quickness) than Howard. Wilson is bigger and quicker than Howard. JJJ is bigger and quicker than Howard. Haanif is bigger than Howard. Than there is Rowsey who is about the same height and has much more experience than Howard. I am not saying that Howard will not become a very good player, but I do believe he does not play much next year, because of the number of experienced guards we have on the team. His strength is three point shooting, but this team already has a lot of three point shooters. I think Wojo is going to still value taking the ball to the basket versus camping shooters on the three point line. However, it is up to the coach to build a team around special talents of players so who knows? Wojo essentially let Henry do what ever he wanted to do, so maybe he will let Howard camp out on the three point line. It is probably harder to judge what Wojo is planning than what Howard's skillset is.
Seriously? How can you project what someone is going to do in college basketball based on 5 quarters of play versus overwhelmed international opponents?
JB already said that Howard was asked to fill a role on the U17 as a shooter. That won't necessarily be his role on this Marquette team.
Quote from: Jay Bee on July 04, 2016, 10:26:23 PM
I don't read most of your posts. This is the second time you've done this. I haven't called you out on anything in this thread. I was referencing to someone else. Cripes, get a grip.
See?
dgies156 is who I was talking about.
I'm the one who wants to be 'smarter'? Haha... fall back, bud. (And an apology is in order)
Did you or did you not use me as an example here, even after I responded nicely to you in an earlier thread?
Look, I'm not going to get into a pissing match with you. Chicos and Smuggles McHeisy have been fun enough.
Enjoy the week. I plan to. See ya in some other thread down the line.
Quote from: The Sultan of Sunshine on July 05, 2016, 08:30:32 AM
Seriously? How can you project what someone is going to do in college basketball based on 5 quarters of play versus overwhelmed international opponents?
JB already said that Howard was asked to fill a role on the U17 as a shooter. That won't necessarily be his role on this Marquette team.
My reaction as well.
Quote from: MU82 on July 05, 2016, 09:18:03 AM
Did you or did you not use me as an example here, even after I responded nicely to you in an earlier thread?
Look, I'm not going to get into a pissing match with you. Chicos and Smuggles McHeisy have been fun enough.
Enjoy the week. I plan to. See ya in some other thread down the line.
I agree with you, Mike. JB spends a lot of time on this and is obviously one of the more knowledgeable posters about HS kids, but I won't waste my time on a Chicas wannabe.
Freeport posts with class ALL of the time when discussing players. JB would do well to learn some things from him..
Quote from: The Sultan of Sunshine on July 05, 2016, 08:30:32 AM
Seriously? How can you project what someone is going to do in college basketball based on 5 quarters of play versus overwhelmed international opponents?
JB already said that Howard was asked to fill a role on the U17 as a shooter. That won't necessarily be his role on this Marquette team.
Well I stated that is all I have seen him play, which is a qualifying statement. I have no doubt, if he played 30 minutes a game at MU this season he would average double figures. However, I can say the same thing about Wilson, JJJ, Haanif, Reinhardt, Rowsey and Fischer ( I know Fischer is not a guard). I also think that Anim would average double figures, if he was allowed to play 30 minutes a game, but that will not happen. That means Howard has to be better at the other things players need to do on the court than the other players. MU's offense will be fine. What they need be better at is defense, rebounding and turnovers and how well Howard can do this will determine how much he plays. Howard did do a good job of staying in front of his player on defense, but I did not come away with the impression that he was a better defender than the other guards on MU's team. All the players mentioned above have division 1 basketball experience. I cannot judge how Howard will play point, since he played shooting guard when I watched him play. It is hard to picture a player being able to beat out Carter, who is a point guard.
Quote from: Jay Bee on July 04, 2016, 08:23:26 PM
Folks on here believe "it's impossible to project" how Markus will do.
It's not.
What's your confidence interval on his ORtg, Usage, and MPG?
Mine
ORtg 90-120
Usage 15% - 25%
MPG 5 - 30
I don't think it's impossible to project either. However, my confidence interval of how he is actually going to do is so wide that the projections are useless.
Quote from: Jay Bee on July 04, 2016, 08:48:25 PM
Do you think you'd stand a chance against me one on one, up to 15, 1's and 2's?
I played volleyball with these cats several weeks ago. My fingers straight up split.. is that normal? Had to put NewSkin on 'em to heal it. But I was taller than most of them and slammed that puny ball on their heads (nh)
I believe you could whip me in volleyball.. bball? Me win, no problem bahdee.
Yes...but what about Ners???
Quote from: Henry Sugar on July 05, 2016, 12:48:47 PM
What's your confidence interval on his ORtg, Usage, and MPG?
Mine
ORtg 90-120
Usage 15% - 25%
MPG 5 - 30
I don't think it's impossible to project either. However, my confidence interval of how he is actually going to do is so wide that the projections are useless.
I'll close them up a little bit... 96 - 114; 17% - 23%; 12-26
He's a kid who I think will do whatever you ask of him... what will his role be? I think he's capable of a lot... not sure they'll ask it of him though
108, 21%, 18 is my "no range allowed", quick guess
Quote from: Jay Bee on July 05, 2016, 02:55:52 PM
I'll close them up a little bit... 96 - 114; 17% - 23%; 12-26
He's a kid who I think will do whatever you ask of him... what will his role be? I think he's capable of a lot... not sure they'll ask it of him though
108, 21%, 18 is my "no range allowed", quick guess
I'm also accounting for injury in my lower ranges.
108/21% would be an excellent first year contribution. For a guy in the #25 - #50 recruiting range, I think that's at the top end. However, given his experience with USA basketball, one could place him closer to the top end.
I'm pessimistic about freshmen in general, so I'd bet the lower half of your confidence intervals. Having said that, I think your numbers are reasonable.