MUScoop

1.  War of attrition in the second half.
2.  Every time either team played defense, there was a whistle.
3.  Everybody conributed.
4.  Dammit Luke,  your team needs you on the floor.
5.  You knew the run was coming.
6.  Gonna be some tired legs tomorrow.
7.  A good problem to have.
8.  Free throw shooting is contagious.
9.  Giving up 93 and winning.  Holy crap.
20.  Wins

Luke. 1 rebound.

Quote from: tower912 on March 09, 2016, 10:58:24 PM
1.  War of attrition in the second half.
2.  Every time either team played defense, there was a whistle.
3.  Everybody conributed.
4.  Dammit Luke,  your team needs you on the floor.
5.  You knew the run was coming.
6.  Gonna be some tired legs tomorrow. today
7.  A good problem to have.
8.  Free throw shooting is contagious.
9.  Giving up 93 and winning.  Holy crap.
20.  Wins

Happy you could find something to complain about, Shark.

Quote from: MomofMUltiples on March 09, 2016, 11:01:48 PM
Happy you could find something to complain about, Shark.

Well we can all talk about how that was the most overly officiated game in a long time. But Luke's consistent 2 or 1 rebound games are concerning for our team next year.

Well, the refs had themselves quite the game

I think the flow (or lack thereof) helps MU a bit against X. If the tournament is going to be called this way, at least MU experienced it already.

Has MU ever won two games in the same day?

Feels good to win.

Earned the right to wear a uniform in the post season......

That was embarrassing officiating. How do you expect kids on the biggest stage of their lives to "adapt" when you change the rules. I get the directive but it was never enforced like this, not once the whole season. Now after an entire season you flip a switch and say watch this.

Absolutely embarrassing and the Big East owes its players more. We deserve an apology.

If you want to make a final four referee job fine but you can't switch after an entire season of letting things go.

MU played pretty well.  Should never have been that close.  There was a point when St Johns could have shoot from half court behind their back and it would have gone in.  True. MU defense in the paint was very weak.  Henry really isn't good at defending the rim, we need Luke out there for that.
And of course there were the refs.  I don't care what you've been told to do or what your point of emphasize was that was very poorly refed game.  Why not just have each team shoot free throws to decide it.  The Haanif gets mugged and there is no call.  Fisher gets called for his 5th.  The St Johns guy goes down the court does the exact same play with the arm and no call.
Well its a win but not what you want on opening game.

Won and advanced.
20 wins.
Won three of the Four Factors.
53 fouls is bad for TV.
Wojo undefeated in blue Oxford with suit coat off on national tv.
10 straight BET quarterfinals.
First time MU will win two games on same day.

Quote from: tower912 on March 09, 2016, 10:58:24 PM
9.  Giving up 93 vs the #319 Kenpom offensive efficiency and winning.  Holy crap.

We survived

Duane in the first half was awesome

JJJ & HE were great -- especially JJJ on defense at times

I think my favorite part of the game was when Gus just got frustrated and called out the ref's -- i think the comment was "they potentially are being told to do this but its just wrong"

Hopefully the fatigue won't rear its ugly head. In the first 5 minutes, I hope jump shots and free throws don't start clanging off the front of the rim.

We need a performance at the line like we had today against X 'tomorrow' (CT) to have a chance.

Hopefully the refs won't have hiccups tomorrow when holding the whistle in their teeth...

Quote from: Warrior1 on March 09, 2016, 11:07:40 PM
That was embarrassing officiating. How do you expect kids on the biggest stage of their lives to "adapt" when you change the rules. I get the directive but it was never enforced like this, not once the whole season. Now after an entire season you flip a switch and say watch this.

Absolutely embarrassing and the Big East owes its players more. We deserve an apology.

If you want to make a final four referee job fine but you can't switch after an entire season of letting things go.

Makes one miss Jim Burr

Quote from: tower912 on March 09, 2016, 10:58:24 PM
1.  War of attrition in the second half.
2.  Every time either team played defense, there was a whistle.
3.  Everybody conributed.
4.  Dammit Luke,  your team needs you on the floor.
5.  You knew the run was coming.
6.  Gonna be some tired legs tomorrow.
7.  A good problem to have.
8.  Free throw shooting is contagious.
9.  Giving up 93 and winning.  Holy crap.
20.  Wins

In this game, I don't really blame Luke.

10. Durand Johnson attempted 9 awful shots, somehow 5 of them went in
11. One of the best indicators of good coaching is ability to win close games. We've won a vast majority of these close games. Why do we think the coaching is so bad again?

Interesting game. Let's go get X tomorrow.

Quote from: Heisenberg on March 09, 2016, 11:10:56 PM
Makes one miss Jim Burr

Ok, refs were bad. Get over it.

Luke fouling out yet again is becoming problematic. Tournament time in his junior year and he still can't play defense.

Too many open looks by the Johnnies and too much of their driving the lane.

Need a perfect game against X if we;re going to move on.

Anyone hear that post game speech by wojo... awesome. That's why he gets good recruits. He speaks to the players.

I believe we are the masters of the 7-10 game.

No chance later today vs. a very physical opponent.

Some non-game analysis:

1. Really liked the FOX Sports pre-game showing Marquette at Broadway theatre
2. Disappointing by Gus Johnson openly cheering for St. John's versus Marquette
3. Liked all of the attention/camera time they gave to Wojo, Haanif, and Henry post-game.

I kept thinking that the is much better when Traci is on the court. And so much better when neither Traci nor Luke are in foul trouble.

Quote from: MarquetteDano on March 09, 2016, 11:16:57 PM
Some non-game analysis:

1. Really liked the FOX Sports pre-game showing Marquette at Broadway theatre
2. Disappointing by Gus Johnson openly cheering for St. John's versus Marquette
3. Liked all of the attention/camera time they gave to Wojo, Haanif, and Henry post-game.

Yeah, number 2 was kind of expected. I don't think Gus really likes MU too much. He was really openly cheering for Xavier in that NCAA game when jimmy shut down Holloway. The quietest I've ever heard him. it was like his feelings were hurt that MU was winning.

I think Gus' periods of silence were because someone was talking in his ear, telling him to quit being so biased and to shut up about the officiating.

Win and advance.  Doesn't have to be pretty.

I like that the guys got their "warm up game" out of the way against an easy opponent.  Now they'll be ready to crush X tomorrow.

Quote from: AirPunch on March 09, 2016, 11:20:47 PM
Yeah, number 2 was kind of expected. I don't think Gus really likes MU too much. He was really openly cheering for Xavier in that NCAA game when jimmy shut down Holloway. The quietest I've ever heard him. it was like his feelings were hurt that MU was winning.

I didn't really notice that to be honest, but was much more focused on the game than the commentators I suppose.

Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 09, 2016, 11:23:35 PM
I didn't really notice that to be honest, but was much more focused on the game than the commentators I suppose.

Yeah, guess I just tend to let every little thing bother me when MU is blowing a big lead.

It is a privilege to watch a frosh like Henry in a MU uniform.  Just enjoy.    Although I wish he would be back next year....um....no....ready or not his a lottery pick. B

That being said....Haani, Duane, JJJ and Traci Carter are going to be a helluva guard group next year!!!!!

Silly but serious note.... Coaches...great inbound plays under pressure which frankly have been an issue the lady few years.   

Quote from: Heisenberg on March 09, 2016, 11:10:56 PM
Makes one miss Jim Burr

Theburreffect may have to return.

Quote from: Warrior1 on March 09, 2016, 11:07:40 PM
That was embarrassing officiating. How do you expect kids on the biggest stage of their lives to "adapt" when you change the rules. I get the directive but it was never enforced like this, not once the whole season. Now after an entire season you flip a switch and say watch this.

Absolutely embarrassing and the Big East owes its players more. We deserve an apology.

If you want to make a final four referee job fine but you can't switch after an entire season of letting things go.

My concern would be, if the refs go the other way tomoorow. We now have an expectation on how tommorrow's game is going to be called and should be ahead of Xavier in adjusting to it. We will go into Xavier game with the idea that you cannot touch the offensive player and if the refs change to no blood no foul we will get run over before we adjust to the change.

53 fouls and Ellenson had zero. You can say what you want about his defense, but he knows how to play without fouling. I do think he plays pretty good defense, when a player tries to take it inside on him. He keeps his arms up and does not foul.

Quote from: bilsu on March 09, 2016, 11:34:51 PM
53 fouls and Ellenson had zero. You can say what you want about his defense, but he knows how to play without fouling. I do think he plays pretty good defense, when a player tries to take it inside on him. He keeps his arms up and does not foul.

We watched a different game.  He didn't get a foul, because he essentially didn't play any defense.  It was beyond bad.

Quote from: forgetful on March 09, 2016, 11:36:04 PM
We watched a different game.  He didn't get a foul, because he essentially didn't play any defense.  It was beyond bad.

We gave up 93 points, can we really say anyone played spectacular defense?

27 and 14, including the game's biggest play, at The Garden. Now's the time for the "Henry will be around for 4 years" folks to please chime in again.

If we shoot 70% from the line, we probably lose that game. So I'd love to hear the whole "free throws don't really matter" argument from the new-fangled stats guys again.

I didn't think Gus was cheering for one team over the other.

I did think the officiating was awful.

Quote from: forgetful on March 09, 2016, 11:36:04 PM
We watched a different game.  He didn't get a foul, because he essentially didn't play any defense.  It was beyond bad.

I think getting stupid fouls that Fischer cannot stay away form are bad. Also, defense does not end until you get the ball back. Rebounding is part of defense.

People still think Hank's not ready for the Association and needs another year in college?

Quote from: forgetful on March 09, 2016, 11:36:04 PM
We watched a different game.  He didn't get a foul, because he essentially didn't play any defense.  It was beyond bad.

Maybe, but it was better defense than Duane played. I think all of his fouls were pushing a guy that was driving past him.

Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 09, 2016, 11:12:42 PM
11. One of the best indicators of good coaching is ability to win close games. We've won a vast majority of these close games. Why do we think the coaching is so bad again?

I'd prefer to keep a big lead and win easily than bring one down to the wire.

Quote from: LAZER on March 09, 2016, 11:55:56 PM
I'd prefer to keep a big lead and win easily than bring one down to the wire.

Of course. Wojo said the same. But that's not very realistic for most teams, let alone a younger team. In basketball, runs happen almost every game.

But if you aren't impressed that Wojo's team wins close games, how about this as a sign of improved coaching and an improved team:

The first half to two-thirds of the season, an opponent would press and our lads would crap their pants. Even happened against St. John's.

More recently, we've done a pretty darn good job against the press. Tonight, we were very, very good against it.

Just luck, I guess. It couldn't be hard work, great preparation and good coaching.

Quote from: TallTitan34 on March 09, 2016, 11:41:07 PM
I didn't think Gus was cheering for one team over the other.

I did think the officiating was awful.

The only thing gus was cheering for or against was against the NCAA and officials. That was an epic rant.

Thanks for the free Chic Fil A MU! Let's get a few more free sandwiches out of the week/weekend!

Quote from: fjm on March 09, 2016, 11:14:29 PM
Anyone hear that post game speech by wojo... awesome. That's why he gets good recruits. He speaks to the players.

Agreed.  Like that he was focused on them (i.e., getting them fed, sleep and then we tackle X tomorrow).

Quote from: MU82 on March 10, 2016, 12:00:43 AM
Of course. Wojo said the same. But that's not very realistic for most teams, let alone a younger team. In basketball, runs happen almost every game.

But if you aren't impressed that Wojo's team wins close games, how about this as a sign of improved coaching and an improved team:

The first half to two-thirds of the season, an opponent would press and our lads would crap their pants. Even happened against St. John's.

More recently, we've done a pretty darn good job against the press. Tonight, we were very, very good against it.

Just luck, I guess. It couldn't be hard work, great preparation and good coaching.

The job this team has done in close games this season has been great, but a lot of those close finishes have been because they've let big leads slip away.

Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 09, 2016, 11:12:42 PM

11. One of the best indicators of good coaching is ability to win close games. We've won a vast majority of these close games. Why do we think the coaching is so bad again?

Ehh I think the best indicator of good coaching is not giving up double digit leads under 10 minutes. That has plagued marquette all year.

Wish we found a way to get 2-5 minutes for Wally and Heldt so Henry didn't have to play so many minutes. Seemed like an ideal time would have been when we were up between 11 and 17 points. But Wojo seems satisfied with his 7-man rotation.

May not matter anyway since I don't see us beating Xavier even with a week's rest. Enjoyed the game despite the officiating and lack and defense. MU played well as a team to earn a tough win, and I'll be hoping against hope for a miracle.

JJJ needs more than 28 minutes.

Quote from: brandx on March 09, 2016, 11:53:20 PM
Maybe, but it was better defense than Duane played. I think all of his fouls were pushing a guy that was driving past him.

Agreed, Duane seemed to respond way late on every drive.

Quote from: MU82 on March 09, 2016, 11:39:49 PM
27 and 14, including the game's biggest play, at The Garden. Now's the time for the "Henry will be around for 4 years" folks to please chime in again.

I have to imagine that was a folk...did more than one person really say that?

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/gametracker/boxscore/NCAAB_20160309_STJOHN@MARQET

Box score.

He was so far down that it is actually good to see Sandy bring his game up to Juan Anderson levels.

Quote from: tower912 on March 10, 2016, 06:21:45 AM
He was so far down that it is actually good to see Sandy bring his game up to Juan Anderson levels.

Sandy no longer looks to shoot.

Quote from: We R Final Four on March 10, 2016, 06:40:59 AM
Sandy no longer looks to shoot.

I'm fine with the 7 man rotation but am confused as to how Sandy is getting the 7th man gig over Wally.  In their current state it seems like they are pretty interchangeable out there with the exception that Wally has a much higher energy level.

4 of Luke's fouls were under Marquette's basket.  It's not exactly a defense issue.

Oh and, PLAY WALLY! Good things happen. 

I went to bed at halftime, but just saw the highlights and box score.

Wow. Henry with some cojones on that 3.
Wow. If that SJU press (where JJJ got an and-1 at the end) had zero fouls called for Haanif, how were any called in the game?
Wow. JJJ taking a contested lay-up when we were up and less than 30 seconds on the clock. Could have been a Buycks v Louisville situation there.

Survive and advance, I suppose.

Quote from: #UnleashWally on March 10, 2016, 12:27:51 AM
Ehh I think the best indicator of good coaching is not giving up double digit leads under 10 minutes. That has plagued marquette all year.

Why does this matter if we still end up with the W?  A good coach manages to pull out a win even when the other team has the momentum at the back end of the game

Quote from: warriorchick on March 10, 2016, 07:09:21 AM
Why does this matter if we still end up with the W?  A good coach manages to pull out a win even when the other team has the momentum at the back end of the game

Scoop is now the domain expert on things such as the degree of difficulty of a rebound, and the quality of a close win.

Quote from: warriorchick on March 10, 2016, 07:09:21 AM
Why does this matter if we still end up with the W?  A good coach manages to pull out a win even when the other team has the momentum at the back end of the game

It's kind of a silly argument.  If Henry missed that game saving 3, would that somehow make Wojo a worse coach?  Our players made some dumb decisions and played terrible defense to allow SJU to come back (plus those sons of guns never seemed to miss when they had a good look), but then they nutted up and made big plays at winning time.  Especially since we had no timeouts left at crunch time, I would put most of the credit/blame on the players, not any particular coaching decisions.

If we had lost this game, one thing people aren't mentioning is that Henry wasted our last time out with just under 4 minutes to go by not inbounding the ball when he had at least two good safe pass options that he didn't pull the trigger on.  I'm glad we didn't need that timeout.

Quote from: TallTitan34 on March 09, 2016, 11:41:07 PM
I didn't think Gus was cheering for one team over the other.

I did think the officiating was awful.

Agree. Gus doesn't care who wins - he's is always is more animated about the team that is behind, no matter who.

Quote from: brandx on March 10, 2016, 07:31:43 AM
Agree. Gus doesn't care who wins - he's is always is more animated about the team that is behind, no matter who.

Plus SJU was coming back from a 17 point deficit.  For the neutral fan that was exciting.

Quote from: AirPunch on March 09, 2016, 11:20:47 PM
Yeah, number 2 was kind of expected. I don't think Gus really likes MU too much. He was really openly cheering for Xavier in that NCAA game when jimmy shut down Holloway. The quietest I've ever heard him. it was like his feelings were hurt that MU was winning.

Haven't read the whole thread yet so sorry if this has been covered...but I don't think Gus dislikes MU at all. He openly cheers for underdogs. He was definitely cheering for MU over Syracuse in the 2nd round that year.

Quote from: g0lden3agle on March 10, 2016, 06:45:01 AM
I'm fine with the 7 man rotation but am confused as to how Sandy is getting the 7th man gig over Wally.  In their current state it seems like they are pretty interchangeable out there with the exception that Wally has a much higher energy level.

Sandy is much more under control on defense. Rarely blows assignments. Good man defender. If he could hit open 3's again he could be a valuable piece. Wally offers more on offense right now and his energy is high but he gets beat on D a lot when he comes in

Last night, Du looked like the Du from last year, both with his look and, more importantly, with his game.  He drove, hit the 3, made most of his FTs.

JjJ has become a man on the court throughout this season.  His progression has been remarkable and his shot is not only no longer "cringe worthy", I find myself hoping he takes the 3.  You can't help but notice his 5 steals either.  He definitely needs to play more than 28.

HE is HE.  Huge 3 from the corner to put the Warriors back in the lead.  After the first half, I thought Henry would need to pick it up a bit.  Then he ends up with the line he had.  His game is amazing because I see him getting points and rebounds but at the end of each game I find myself thinking, he had that many? If only HE could stick around one more year.

Need a big game tonight our of Luke.  Somehow, he needs to stay away from the ticky tack BS fouls.  If he does, we have a shot.  But X is to physical to not have Fishy in the game.

Quote from: Frenns Liquor Depot on March 10, 2016, 07:36:42 AM
Plus SJU was coming back from a 17 point deficit.  For the neutral fan that was exciting.

I think you're right.  Horrible for us, but when a team is coming from that far back to take a lead late in the second half I expect the announcer to talk about the great comeback, and the poor play leading to the collapse.

Survive and move on baby.  That's all that matters.

With Henry's great performance Haanif gets overlooked. He had another good game and will probably best our best player next season if Henry goes pro.

Quote from: muwarrior69 on March 10, 2016, 08:56:48 AM
With Henry's great performance Haanif gets overlooked. He had another good game and will probably best our best player next season if Henry goes pro.

Haanif's freshman season would be legendary if not for Henry moving the goal posts, so to speak.  He's already a helluva player.

If Haanif stays 4 and MU plays a few postseason games, I expect him to end up with the scoring record. 

Quote from: connie on March 10, 2016, 08:05:38 AM
I think you're right.  Horrible for us, but when a team is coming from that far back to take a lead late in the second half I expect the announcer to talk about the great comeback, and the poor play leading to the collapse.

Survive and move on baby.  That's all that matters.

It's funny how it works out that way.  At one point chick was lamenting the missed free throws (2-3 trips we were 50%).  I reminded her that we were shooting an unbelievable 90% for the game.

Quote from: tower912 on March 10, 2016, 09:02:10 AM
If Haanif stays 4 and MU plays a few postseason games, I expect him to end up with the scoring record.

Yup ... I mean -- he's shooting 49% from the floor as a freshman guard, sometimes playing out of position as a PG. remarkable

Quote from: HaywardsHeroes32 on March 10, 2016, 12:40:34 AM
JJJ needs more than 28 minutes.

Agreed. He really has made a nice jump. unfortunately, his minutes were a bit limited by the fact that he was getting called for fouls when the other guy hand checked him.

• Never a doubt yesterday once we built the lead. I'm sure some were worried when the Johnnies went ahead, but there was no way that hot shooting would keep up.
  
• Great MSG debut for Henry. It is absolutely amazing how much he has improved this year. Really turned it around after being rather poor in the first 8 games of conference play.
  
• Officiating was brutal, though honestly, it was worse for St. John's. Every time they looked at us sideways we went to the line. It was equally terrible at the end, but for the first 30 or so minutes, we got pretty much every call.
  
• Anyone looked at the win probability graph (http://kenpom.com/winprob.php?g=5652) on Pomeroy? Pretty sure it's inaccurate, but also hilarious.
  
• Also amazed at JJ's improvement. What a game, 23/5/4 with 5 steals? Last year, I frequently criticized him going for too many steals. This year, he is much better at understanding when to go for a ball. He's not gambling and taking himself out of position in the process, but when there's a ball in the reach of his wingspan, he's probably taking it away. Earlier in the season, he began to let the game come to him, but now he's showing the ability to take over the game. Love watching his development...similar to the massive strides Blue took as a junior (albeit in different ways).
  
• Duane was victimized by numerous phantom fouls, but he was also very good. He's at that "letting the game come to him" point except you know he wants the ball at the end.
  
• Free throws were important, but I have to defend Jay Bee here. The point of free throw percentage not mattering is that if you shoot anywhere over 50%, you are getting better than average offensive production versus what would happen if you were running your offense, and the mounting fouls are the real benefit because they reduce the effectiveness of the opponents while also giving you more chances at dead ball points. Yes, you can note points in individual games and cherry pick stats to increase the apparent value of free throw percentage, but over the course of a full season, the actual wins and losses decided by the difference of a team shooting 75% from the line (above average) or 68% (below average) is pretty marginal.
  
• Last year we kicked SHU's ass in that position, this year we pummel St. John's before flirting with disaster at the end. Really hope today looks better than our matinee follow-up with Nova did a year ago.
  
• 20 wins, hopefully we've done enough for the Vegas 16 if our season ends tonight.
  
• Been a fun season watching these guys grow this year. Henry, JJ, Duane, Haanif, Traci have all shown so much growth. Still need to round out the roster and get some Big East toughness, but Wojo definitely shows promise as a developer of talent.

Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 10, 2016, 01:03:30 AM
I have to imagine that was a folk...did more than one person really say that?

Fair enough. Only one dope I know of kept saying that. My statement was more reflecting those who keep thinking Henry shouldn't go because he's "not ready." Even if he isn't "ready," he will be a top-10 pick, so his readiness has little to do with anything. And there's no reason to think he wouldn't become better faster as a pro than as a collegian.

I was one (and you were too, IIRC) who had a hunch Hank would stay for 2 years. Now, I hope but I doubt it.

Never a doubt down one with 3 minutes left after blowing a 17 point lead and giving up 51 points in less than 17 minutes? I'd kill for your kind of faith.

Quote from: jesmu84 on March 10, 2016, 06:58:48 AM

Wow. If that SJU press (where JJJ got an and-1 at the end) had zero fouls called for Haanif, how were any called in the game?
Wow. JJJ taking a contested lay-up when we were up and less than 30 seconds on the clock. Could have been a Buycks v Louisville situation there.

I had those exact same 2 thoughts.

The refs called every ticky-tack foul -- and I agree with those who realize we got the better of the calls for most of the game -- but they didn't call at least two blatant hacks on that play with Haanif - yikes! We were lucky to not turn it over there.

And there was absolutely no reason for JJJ to go 1-on-1 there. It would have been seen here as a horrible mistake if he had missed (and rightly so), especially if the Johnnies had gone back the other way and thrown in another 3. Thankfully, that didn't happen!

53 fouls in this game. That's a foul called every 45 seconds.

Enough to foul out every starter on both sides and then some.

Crazy.

Quote from: #UnleashWally on March 10, 2016, 12:27:51 AM
Ehh I think the best indicator of good coaching is not giving up double digit leads under 10 minutes. That has plagued marquette all year.

Why? When teams blow big leads thats usually because of mistakes made by players on the court. Coaching has the most impact on games in the final few minutes when the game is still undecided. Usually the coach takes over and calls about every play, uses a lot of timeouts, and makes critical adjustments. Before that a lot more rest on the players.

I don't think Wojo is a great in game coach yet. But he is a lot better than most scoopers give him credit for. You don't win this many close games by accident. I think fans just have an easier time blaming the coach for a loss than they do the players.

Quote from: Lennys Tap on March 10, 2016, 09:41:31 AM
Never a doubt down one with 3 minutes left after blowing a 17 point lead and giving up 51 points in less than 17 minutes? I'd kill for your kind of faith.

+1

That game was about as pleasurable to watch as getting a dry enema.  There was no flow, there were way too many whistles. 

Glad Marquette won, but I wish I had those 2+ hours back. 

Quote from: brewcity77 on March 10, 2016, 09:30:55 AM

• Never a doubt yesterday once we built the lead. I'm sure some were worried when the Johnnies went ahead, but there was no way that hot shooting would keep up.
  
• Great MSG debut for Henry. It is absolutely amazing how much he has improved this year. Really turned it around after being rather poor in the first 8 games of conference play.
  
• Officiating was brutal, though honestly, it was worse for St. John's. Every time they looked at us sideways we went to the line. It was equally terrible at the end, but for the first 30 or so minutes, we got pretty much every call.
  
• Anyone looked at the win probability graph (http://kenpom.com/winprob.php?g=5652) on Pomeroy? Pretty sure it's inaccurate, but also hilarious.
  
• Also amazed at JJ's improvement. What a game, 23/5/4 with 5 steals? Last year, I frequently criticized him going for too many steals. This year, he is much better at understanding when to go for a ball. He's not gambling and taking himself out of position in the process, but when there's a ball in the reach of his wingspan, he's probably taking it away. Earlier in the season, he began to let the game come to him, but now he's showing the ability to take over the game. Love watching his development...similar to the massive strides Blue took as a junior (albeit in different ways).
  
• Duane was victimized by numerous phantom fouls, but he was also very good. He's at that "letting the game come to him" point except you know he wants the ball at the end.
  
• Free throws were important, but I have to defend Jay Bee here. The point of free throw percentage not mattering is that if you shoot anywhere over 50%, you are getting better than average offensive production versus what would happen if you were running your offense, and the mounting fouls are the real benefit because they reduce the effectiveness of the opponents while also giving you more chances at dead ball points. Yes, you can note points in individual games and cherry pick stats to increase the apparent value of free throw percentage, but over the course of a full season, the actual wins and losses decided by the difference of a team shooting 75% from the line (above average) or 68% (below average) is pretty marginal.
  
• Last year we kicked SHU's ass in that position, this year we pummel St. John's before flirting with disaster at the end. Really hope today looks better than our matinee follow-up with Nova did a year ago.
  [*]20 wins, hopefully we've done enough for the Vegas 16 if our season ends tonight.
  
• Been a fun season watching these guys grow this year. Henry, JJ, Duane, Haanif, Traci have all shown so much growth. Still need to round out the roster and get some Big East toughness, but Wojo definitely shows promise as a developer of talent.

Nice post. But for realz on the bolded? Cmon man. MU is nearly s lock for the NIT- there is no chance they are not invited to Vegas if this lose today and the NIT passes in MU.

Quote from: MuEagle1090 on March 10, 2016, 07:42:59 AM
Sandy is much more under control on defense. Rarely blows assignments. Good man defender. If he could hit open 3's again he could be a valuable piece. Wally offers more on offense right now and his energy is high but he gets beat on D a lot when he comes in

+1

Quote from: forgetful on March 09, 2016, 11:36:04 PM
We watched a different game.  He didn't get a foul, because he essentially didn't play any defense.  It was beyond bad.

Sorry if this has already addressed, but I had to skip to reply after seeing this comment.  Henry did exactly what he needed to do.  Luke couldn't stay on the court for even 20 minutes.  Heldt is injured.  We absolutely could not afford to have Henry in foul trouble.  I remember a game in Big East play when Henry had only one foul, and he purposely fouled a guy in transition in order to avoid the easy dunk.  That play came back to haunt us, as he quickly picked up his third and rode the pine for a good amount of time.  That can't happen, especially with Luke's inability to stay out of foul trouble.  Kudos to Henry for keeping himself on the court. 

The win probability graph gave me a headache

Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 10, 2016, 10:56:58 AM
Nice post. But for realz on the bolded? Cmon man. MU is nearly s lock for the NIT- there is no chance they are not invited to Vegas if this lose today and the NIT passes in MU.

Not quite yet.  Certainly a win tonight locks the NIT and a loss doesn't eliminate them.  I agree that Vegas is almost certain to invite them now without any further conference tourney success.

Quote from: jsglow on March 10, 2016, 11:43:24 AM
Not quite yet.  Certainly a win tonight locks the NIT and a loss doesn't eliminate them.  I agree that Vegas is almost certain to invite them now without any further conference tourney success.

Hence why I said nearly. I'd happily wager that MU makes the NIT even w a loss tonight. The only reason they wouldn't be is again the ugly RPI, but I think they'll look past that MUs case.

Quote from: MU82 on March 09, 2016, 11:39:49 PM
If we shoot 70% from the line, we probably lose that game. So I'd love to hear the whole "free throws don't really matter" argument from the new-fangled stats guys again.

Don't get the argument wrong. The argument is that FTs and FTR are far less important than any of the other factors.

eFG% (shooting percentage - by far the most important... about 50%)
MU - 60.6%; SJU - 60.7% - a wash

OR% (offensive rebounding... about 25%)
MU - 25%; SJU - 35.5% - ADVANTAGE SJU

TOs (about 20%)
MU - 17.8%; SJU - 21.6% - ADVANTAGE MU

FTR (about 5%)
MU - 82.7%; SJU - 37.7% - BIG ADVANTAGE MU

So with the stuff that really matters (~95%) essentially cancelling out, MU had a big advantage in the remaining 5%.

It's not that FTs and FTR don't matter, it's that they account for 5%. So in order of priorities, the priority should be on the other three first.

Quote from: Henry Sugar on March 10, 2016, 12:00:05 PM
Don't get the argument wrong. The argument is that FTs and FTR are far less important than any of the other factors.

eFG% (shooting percentage - by far the most important... about 50%)
MU - 60.6%; SJU - 60.7% - a wash

OR% (offensive rebounding... about 25%)
MU - 25%; SJU - 35.5% - ADVANTAGE SJU

TOs (about 20%)
MU - 17.8%; SJU - 21.6% - ADVANTAGE MU

FTR (about 5%)
MU - 82.7%; SJU - 37.7% - BIG ADVANTAGE MU

So with the stuff that really matters (~95%) essentially cancelling out, MU had a big advantage in the remaining 5%.

It's not that FTs and FTR don't matter, it's that they account for 5%. So in order of priorities, the priority should be on the other three first.

Stupid question Henry - is it possible to turn these 4 factors into an expected score?

Quote from: g0lden3agle on March 10, 2016, 06:45:01 AM
I'm fine with the 7 man rotation but am confused as to how Sandy is getting the 7th man gig over Wally.  In their current state it seems like they are pretty interchangeable out there with the exception that Wally has a much higher energy level.

I said during game yesterday that I think Wally will play more today. The strong Xavier type is more a Wally balls to the wall game.

SJU is a frantic press game which isn't really Wally.

Now that I've had a few hours to get past the passion of nearly losing to ST Johns in that Foul Fest I can be a little more positive.

1.  As everyone has said JJJ progress this season has been remarkable.  He has gone from a turn over looking to happen; to a consistent scorer on the drive; to now simply unstoppable.  He is so creative with the way he slips through defenses and with the way the guy can finish he is an and 1 machine.  And now he takes 3s and looks good doing it.  This is why you need guys that stay 4 years.  Next year if we are down 1 with 20 secs left the ball goes to JJJ and I'll live with the result.
2.  Traci has changed from a guy I was just waiting to make the next dumb pass to a guy who I really get nervous when he comes out of the game.  When he is running the offense it seems like there is a purpose that wasn't there before.  And his leadership.  Did you see him put is arm around Duane and walk him toward the bench when Duane was protesting his bullsh*t 5th foul.  We don't need a technical.  I'm starting to get the same feeling about Traci that I did when Tony Miller was running things.  I doubt he'll approach Tony's assists number but he's getting that same "everything's under control" approach.
3. Henry I love ya but I could have killed you when you took that corner 3.  No No No No! -- Great.  Still would rather we had a guard take that shot and HE under the basket to rebound.  Also there is a reason why HE gets so few fouls.  He doesn't even try to contest anything in the lane.

Looking forward to tonight.  Don't expect to win.  Want to play well.  Lets see what happens

Quote from: jsglow on March 10, 2016, 11:43:24 AM
Certainly a win tonight locks the NIT

Not trying to argue, but that's definitely NOT a certainty.

There seems to be no upside of HE contesting in the lane as he would be lost to us if in foul trouble like Luke. With JJJ and Haanif slashing and driving to the hoop we will terribly exciting next year. Traci has matured, slowed down his game and been a competent point. Hope this team gets a chance to continue after the BE.

Quote from: g0lden3agle on March 10, 2016, 12:08:40 PM
Stupid question Henry - is it possible to turn these 4 factors into an expected score?

Not a stupid question. You can create a model that turns the four factors into an expected efficiency / PPP.

I showed an example of this on Cracked Sidewalks. (Note: the previous model had eFG% at 63%)

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2014/03/marquette-and-priorities-part-two.html

Using the information from that model, the expected efficiency from last night should have been 1.25 ppp (actual was 1.28). Of that, eFG% would be 1.09 ppp, TO% was -0.18, OR% was 0.20 ppp, and FTR accounted for 0.14 ppp. So, FTR accounted for a much higher proportion than normal, but it was still peanuts compared to eFG%.

Quote from: MU82 on March 10, 2016, 09:44:41 AM
I had those exact same 2 thoughts.

The refs called every ticky-tack foul -- and I agree with those who realize we got the better of the calls for most of the game -- but they didn't call at least two blatant hacks on that play with Haanif - yikes! We were lucky to not turn it over there.

And there was absolutely no reason for JJJ to go 1-on-1 there. It would have been seen here as a horrible mistake if he had missed (and rightly so), especially if the Johnnies had gone back the other way and thrown in another 3. Thankfully, that didn't happen!

My more immediate concern is why Haney keeps getting trapped in the same corner so often. this happened a lot earlier in the year and it is still going on. For some reason, he catches the ball in the corner and just holds it until he is double-teamed. The one you you should never do in a press is stay still with the ball.

Quote from: Lennys Tap on March 10, 2016, 09:41:31 AM
Never a doubt down one with 3 minutes left after blowing a 17 point lead and giving up 51 points in less than 17 minutes? I'd kill for your kind of faith.

Nope. Never a doubt. I said it in the chat at the time. No way was St. John's going to keep that up. Game was over, Johnnies just didn't know it yet.

Quote from: jsglow on March 10, 2016, 11:43:24 AM
Not quite yet.  Certainly a win tonight locks the NIT and a loss doesn't eliminate them.  I agree that Vegas is almost certain to invite them now without any further conference tourney success.

Not at all. It would give us a RPI around 99. The 2014 Marquette team was left out with a RPI of 92 and much better SOS, while last year the lowest at-large RPI team was 90 Arizona State. We need to reach the final to be assured a NIT bid.

Quote from: brewcity77 on March 10, 2016, 03:05:06 PM
Nope. Never a doubt. I said it in the chat at the time. No way was St. John's going to keep that up. Game was over, Johnnies just didn't know it yet.

Not at all. It would give us a RPI around 99. The 2014 Marquette team was left out with a RPI of 92 and much better SOS, while last year the lowest at-large RPI team was 90 Arizona State. We need to reach the final to be assured a NIT bid.

And had lost 4 in a row. take a look at the NIt bubble and find me 15 more deserving at large teams. That's gonna be hard, RPI be damned.

Quote from: brewcity77 on March 10, 2016, 03:05:06 PM
Nope. Never a doubt. I said it in the chat at the time. No way was St. John's going to keep that up. Game was over, Johnnies just didn't know it yet.

We won, so your prediction was correct. But to say "no doubt" when you're down 1 with three minutes left after leading by 17 nine minutes earlier is silly.

Quote from: Lennys Tap on March 10, 2016, 04:05:41 PM
We won, so your prediction was correct. But to say "no doubt" when you're down 1 with three minutes left after leading by 17 nine minutes earlier is silly.

Exactly.

We were three minutes from maybe the most embarrassing loss in MU history.

Quote from: Henry Sugar on March 10, 2016, 01:25:24 PM
Not a stupid question. You can create a model that turns the four factors into an expected efficiency / PPP.

I showed an example of this on Cracked Sidewalks. (Note: the previous model had eFG% at 63%)

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2014/03/marquette-and-priorities-part-two.html

Using the information from that model, the expected efficiency from last night should have been 1.25 ppp (actual was 1.28). Of that, eFG% would be 1.09 ppp, TO% was -0.18, OR% was 0.20 ppp, and FTR accounted for 0.14 ppp. So, FTR accounted for a much higher proportion than normal, but it was still peanuts compared to eFG%.

Thanks!  So the 50/20/25/5 splits you cited in this thread yields a better fit than the numbers in the article you referred to?

Quote from: brandx on March 10, 2016, 04:37:28 PM

We were three minutes from maybe the most embarrassing loss in MU history.

Stop it.

Miami of Ohio 84, Marquette 81. In a game that actually mattered for the defending national champions.

Or how about Kansas 1 billion, Marquette 2. In a Final Four game.

Or how about DePaul 51, Marquette 50 to end DePaul's 24-game conference losing streak.

Etc, etc, etc.

Losing to St. John's at MSG might not have been a top-10 embarrassment. Maybe not top-20.

Quote from: g0lden3agle on March 10, 2016, 05:28:30 PM
Thanks!  So the 50/20/25/5 splits you cited in this thread yields a better fit than the numbers in the article you referred to?

No, the article has a better fit. The 50/20/25/5 split was me trying to go off memory.

Quote from: Henry Sugar on March 11, 2016, 09:06:23 AM
No, the article has a better fit. The 50/20/25/5 split was me trying to go off memory.

Cool, thanks Henry!  Queue my misuse of these %'s to help make bets during March Madness :)

Quote from: g0lden3agle on March 11, 2016, 09:24:43 AM
Cool, thanks Henry!  Queue my misuse of these %'s to help make bets during March Madness :)

Bumping this:  http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=50970.0