MUScoop

13-7 (3-5) currently
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I see 3 more wins on the schedule

16-15 (5-13) heading into the BE tourney

(My heart says 18, just don't believe it)

  18-13  Light bulb in Players heads get Brighter as the season  progresses.

Quote from: Loose Cannon on January 24, 2016, 09:56:04 PM

  18-13  Light bulb in Players heads get Brighter as the season  progresses.

19-12 (8-10) going into BET. I think NIT needs to be the achievable goal at this point.

Quote from: MarquetteDano on January 24, 2016, 11:42:43 PM
19-12 (8-10) going into BET. I think NIT needs to be the achievable goal at this point.

I think this is correct.  Perfectly reasonable.  9-9 is not out of sight, but we need Duane to play at his peak ability.

I think we'll win some more we shouldn't, and have already lost the ones we shouldn't have. I'm going eternal optimist and saying 7-4 from here on out. Enter the BET at 20-11 (9-9) but still needing three wins to dance.

Quote from: brewcity77 on January 25, 2016, 05:57:18 AM
I think we'll win some more we shouldn't, and have already lost the ones we shouldn't have. I'm going eternal optimist and saying 7-4 from here on out. Enter the BET at 20-11 (9-9) but still needing three wins to dance.

With the exception of DePaul(away) the rest of our conference games are against KenPom top 50 competition, of which we have exactly one win against such a team, Providence. Wisconsin is currently 59 so maybe we give MU 2 wins.

Not to be super negative, but how exactly are we going to win 6 of 10 against top 50 competition? Unfortunately, I see us going 2-8 down the stretch leaving us at 16-15 and just in the NIT.

At some point, we are who we are.

16-15 going into the BE tourney if we beat the teams we are supposed to beat.

Quote from: MarquetteDano on January 24, 2016, 11:42:43 PM
19-12 (8-10) going into BET. I think NIT needs to be the achievable goal at this point.

I feel like this is accurate in terms of record.  Call me crazy but I think we're playing in the BET Championship game where the dream of dancing ultimately dies.  NIT is fairly sure fire in my eyes barring a complete collapse.

Quote from: awilhelmscream on January 25, 2016, 09:37:14 AM
I feel like this is accurate in terms of record.  Call me crazy but I think we're playing in the BET Championship game where the dream of dancing ultimately dies.  NIT is fairly sure fire in my eyes barring a complete collapse.

You're crazy.

Quote from: awilhelmscream on January 25, 2016, 09:37:14 AM
I feel like this is accurate in terms of record.  Call me crazy but I think we're playing in the BET Championship game where the dream of dancing ultimately dies.  NIT is fairly sure fire in my eyes barring a complete collapse.

You are certifiably crazy

Quote from: brewcity77 on January 25, 2016, 05:57:18 AM
I think we'll win some more we shouldn't, and have already lost the ones we shouldn't have. I'm going eternal optimist and saying 7-4 from here on out. Enter the BET at 20-11 (9-9) but still needing three wins to dance.

Me too, but at this point that very optimistic.  Depaul loss is just crushing.  Sitting at 4-4 right now things would look so much better. 

I don't see only 2-4 wins though, as some here suggestion.  I think we'll get to 8-10 at worst.

Quote from: mu03eng on January 25, 2016, 09:41:24 AM
You are certifiably crazy

I dont think winning back to back games in the BET is impossible. 

Best-case scenario: 16 wins

Stetson's a W.

PC, Creighton, DePaul and Gtown are all winnable...but I don't see MU winning all of them.

Quote from: MerrittsMustache on January 25, 2016, 09:49:47 AM
Best-case scenario: 16 wins

Stetson's a W.

PC, Creighton, DePaul and Gtown are all winnable...but I don't see MU winning all of them.

Meh.  I see every game remaining besides @ X and vs. Nova as "winnable".  At Butler will be tough but not impossible and I think MU can beat Butler at home this weekend.  Obviously not going to finish BE play 7-3, though. 

I think they probably win 3 more league games, plus Stetson. Just not good enough to put a full game together against a non-cupcake.

Quote from: mu03eng on January 25, 2016, 08:49:16 AM
Not to be super negative, but how exactly are we going to win 6 of 10 against top 50 competition? Unfortunately, I see us going 2-8 down the stretch leaving us at 16-15 and just in the NIT.

At some point, we are who we are.

Dont think 16-15 is good enough for the NIT. Especially with our non-con. Unless we win 2 in the BET. We need 18 wins min for NIT.

Quote from: mu03eng on January 25, 2016, 08:49:16 AM
With the exception of DePaul(away) the rest of our conference games are against KenPom top 50 competition, of which we have exactly one win against such a team, Providence. Wisconsin is currently 59 so maybe we give MU 2 wins.

Not to be super negative, but how exactly are we going to win 6 of 10 against top 50 competition? Unfortunately, I see us going 2-8 down the stretch leaving us at 16-15 and just in the NIT.

At some point, we are who we are.

Thank goodness we don't let Kenpom scores decide our games, or we would have lost to LSU, ASU, Wis and Prov. I know sometimes it's annoying to actually have to play the games and see what happens in them. (Just needling ya a little mu03, so please don't take it personally.)

As to the opening question, "How many more wins?"

I don't know ... how many more games to we have to play? I say we run the table!

Hey, I'm still high after the Panthers' 900-2 win yesterday!

Quote from: MarquetteDano on January 25, 2016, 10:24:37 AM
Dont think 16-15 is good enough for the NIT. Especially with our non-con. Unless we win 2 in the BET. We need 18 wins min for NIT.

I also worry about this -- I think we can do it, but NIT is going to require a fairly strong finish (relative to this team).

Quote from: MU82 on January 25, 2016, 10:32:57 AM
Thank goodness we don't let Kenpom scores decide our games, or we would have lost to LSU, ASU, Wis and Prov. I know sometimes it's annoying to actually have to play the games and see what happens in them. (Just needling ya a little mu03, so please don't take it personally.)

As to the opening question, "How many more wins?"

I don't know ... how many more games to we have to play? I say we run the table!

Hey, I'm still high after the Panthers' 900-2 win yesterday!

Fair enough(and no offense taken), I'm simply saying that the last 10 games of conference season are really really really tough, and to expect to win more than half of them when we've shown no ability to do so "on paper" seems insane to me. Not to mention for every good half of Georgetown, Villanova or Xavier we now have bad halves against Seton Hall, St Johns, and DePaul. Eye test says they just can't hang with the top 6 in conference this year.

If it's going to happen, they have to stop making freshmen mistakes....but they've shown no sign of being able to do that.

I'm trying to be a realist about this in the vain hope that when we do go 3-7 that this place doesn't freak out because their expectations are still far too high.

Quote from: mu03eng on January 25, 2016, 11:48:52 AM
Fair enough(and no offense taken), I'm simply saying that the last 10 games of conference season are really really really tough, and to expect to win more than half of them when we've shown no ability to do so "on paper" seems insane to me. Not to mention for every good half of Georgetown, Villanova or Xavier we now have bad halves against Seton Hall, St Johns, and DePaul. Eye test says they just can't hang with the top 6 in conference this year.

If it's going to happen, they have to stop making freshmen mistakes....but they've shown no sign of being able to do that.

I'm trying to be a realist about this in the vain hope that when we do go 3-7 that this place doesn't freak out because their expectations are still far too high.

Haha, that's inevitable if 3-7 comes to fruition.

Quote from: mu03eng on January 25, 2016, 11:48:52 AM
Fair enough(and no offense taken), I'm simply saying that the last 10 games of conference season are really really really tough, and to expect to win more than half of them when we've shown no ability to do so "on paper" seems insane to me. Not to mention for every good half of Georgetown, Villanova or Xavier we now have bad halves against Seton Hall, St Johns, and DePaul. Eye test says they just can't hang with the top 6 in conference this year.

If it's going to happen, they have to stop making freshmen mistakes....but they've shown no sign of being able to do that.

I'm trying to be a realist about this in the vain hope that when we do go 3-7 that this place doesn't freak out because their expectations are still far too high.

Excellent point. And thanks for giving my post all the seriousness it deserved!

I'm genuinely curious which games Kenpom forecast us to win that we lost and forecast us to lose that we won. Not curious to look it up myself, of course, because I'm one of the laziest guys I know!

Anywhere from 16 to 18 regular season wins are within the realm of reason.

Quote from: MU82 on January 25, 2016, 12:11:05 PM
Excellent point. And thanks for giving my post all the seriousness it deserved!

I'm genuinely curious which games Kenpom forecast us to win that we lost and forecast us to lose that we won. Not curious to look it up myself, of course, because I'm one of the laziest guys I know!

This doesn't answer your question. But Kenpom had MU finishing 5th place in the Big East win a 9-9 conference record

I could see max 21 wins. Realistically I think we win 17 or 18.

My bold optimistic prediction is that we sweep Butler. My bold pessimistic prediction is that we get swept by Creighton.

Yesterday Henry pursued rebounds. However, the last big rebound game was also against St. John's. So I am not sure, if Henry has a new attitude or if St. John's lacks the bulk to keep him from dominating the boards. To achieve more than 17 wins we need Ellenson to be a dominant force.

Sticking with my pre-season prediction of 18-13

Quote from: TAMU Eagle on January 25, 2016, 12:56:51 PM
I could see max 21 wins. Realistically I think we win 17 or 18.

My bold optimistic prediction is that we sweep Butler. My bold pessimistic prediction is that we get swept by Creighton.

3 or 4 conference wins are probably realistic/toward the ceiling of our potential. Who do you have MU beating for those 3 to 4 wins?

Quote from: mu03eng on January 25, 2016, 01:50:06 PM
3 or 4 conference wins are probably realistic/toward the ceiling of our potential. Who do you have MU beating for those 3 to 4 wins?

I have us beating in order of likelihood @depaul, Butler, Providence, @Butler. Of course we could easily lose to all of these.

I think @HALL, CREI, @CREI, and GTWN are all winnable as well.

NOVA and @XAV I see as unwinnable, but that's not really true because in the BEast anything can happen.

Quote from: TAMU Eagle on January 25, 2016, 03:23:37 PM
I have us beating in order of likelihood @depaul, Butler, Providence, @Butler. Of course we could easily lose to all of these.

I think @HALL, CREI, @CREI, and GTWN are all winnable as well.

NOVA and @XAV I see as unwinnable, but that's not really true because in the BEast anything can happen.

Butler is a very physical team, especially Jones and Chrabascz. MU has really struggled this year with that type of player.

Quote from: RJax55 on January 25, 2016, 03:31:09 PM
Butler is a very physical team, especially Jones and Chrabascz. MU has really struggled this year with that type of player.

Slow guards and small bigs play into our wheelhouse. I like the matchup. Not a slam dunk but feel good. If Cohen can do to Jones what he did to Hayes in the Bucky win, we got this.

I see 4-7 the rest of regular season and 1-1 in BET , which gets us to 18-15.

We will be competitive in all games we play. Hopefully that gets us to NIT

Quote from: TAMU Eagle on January 25, 2016, 03:35:35 PM
Slow guards and small bigs play into our wheelhouse. I like the matchup. Not a slam dunk but feel good. If Cohen can do to Jones what he did to Hayes in the Bucky win, we got this.

The big concern I have against Butler is that they value the ball. One of the ways we compensate for our willingness to give the ball away is by taking the ball away from the other team and getting points in transition. If Butler values the ball, those points go away and our offense has to work in the half court which is not ideal.

Quote from: Marquette Fan In NY on January 25, 2016, 03:47:54 PM
I see 4-7 the rest of regular season and 1-1 in BET , which gets us to 18-15.

We will be competitive in all games we play. Hopefully that gets us to NIT

Reasonable aspiration - I think we will win two more of the conference games we think we can win, and one more we don't (if the BC hadn't been such a house of horrors so far I would even say a nova surprise).  Only game I think is at 0% win is at X.  Need to get that one BET win to make NIT.

But then again, if we lose to Stetson I'll bump the leash thread again....

Quote from: mu03eng on January 25, 2016, 09:41:24 AM
You are certifiably crazy

you want Crazy?!?

<Stetson - W>
Butler - W
@SetonHall - W
@Xavier - loss
Providence - W
Creighton - W
@DePaul - W
@Creighton - loss
Villanova - loss
Georgetown - W
@Butler - W
-----------------------
10-8 BE
1-1 BET
-----------------------
22-11

Quote from: bilsu on January 25, 2016, 01:08:25 PM
Yesterday Henry pursued rebounds. However, the last big rebound game was also against St. John's. So I am not sure, if Henry has a new attitude or if St. John's lacks the bulk to keep him from dominating the boards. To achieve more than 17 wins we need Ellenson to be a dominant force.

We also need Luke "Big Fishy" Fischer to keep from fouling out of games.

Quote from: jsheim on January 25, 2016, 04:11:55 PM
you want Crazy?!?

<Stetson - W>
Butler - W
@SetonHall - W
@Xavier - loss
Providence - W
Creighton - W
@DePaul - W
@Creighton - loss
Villanova - loss
Georgetown - W
@Butler - W
-----------------------
10-8 BE
1-1 BET
-----------------------
22-11

(And the Big Dance Baby!!)  :o ::) ?-( ;)

(http://45.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m2wbwkc84x1ru37dno1_500.gif)

Quote from: RJax55 on January 25, 2016, 03:31:09 PM
Butler is a very physical team, especially Jones and Chrabascz. MU has really struggled this year with that type of player.

Was surprised to see Tyler Lewis stats so bad when I just looked

Quote from: WarriorPride68 on January 25, 2016, 04:19:52 PM
Was surprised to see Tyler Lewis stats so bad when I just looked

Lewis is a real downgrade from Alex Barlow on both ends of the court.  BTW, Barlow was hired by Brad Stevens as a special assistant for the Celtics.

I see us going 2-7 down the stretch. Unless there's a dramatic change in our offense, MU's going into NYC as either the 8th or 9th seed in the BET.

To beat that, it is going to take more than just one or two players stepping up. Currently, MU is 226 in AdjO, brutal.

Though, I don't know how anyone can be surprised by that number. MU doesn't shoot it well, little to no offensive rebounding, and way too many turnovers. And sadly, I think we're a poor transition team as well, which in part, neutralize this team's biggest strength, forcing turnovers.

February is going to be tough.

Kenpom: 117th with the 325th SOS.  I don't see a sub .500 team getting into the NIT.  Considering the youth, is there value in any of the other post-season events?

Quote from: Warrior of Law on January 25, 2016, 06:23:39 PM
Kenpom: 117th with the 325th SOS.  I don't see a sub .500 team getting into the NIT.  Considering the youth, is there value in any of the other post-season events?

Bloody hell. UW-Milwaukee is ahead of us in Kenpom

Eff it, we're going 11-0 than 3-0 in the Big East tournament to bring our overall record to finish with a 27-7 record going into the tournament as a 3 seed.

We survive a scare to the 14 seed from heroics from our much maligned freshman point guard and Hank leads us the rest of the way averaging 30 and 15 though the next 5 tourney games. Hank decided he loves his brother too much to leave after 1 year and after the additions of Rowsey and Hauser, MU, repeats ad champions after an undefeated season.

Wojo decided to retire, going out on top as banners of him and Hank are lifted into the rafters during the home opener of the next year.

Quote from: WarriorPride68 on January 25, 2016, 06:30:47 PM
Bloody hell. UW-Milwaukee is ahead of us in Kenpom

They beat UW and Minn. We did not get to play Minnesota. We used to play Minn every year.

Quote from: Warrior of Law on January 25, 2016, 06:23:39 PM
Kenpom: 117th with the 325th SOS.  I don't see a sub .500 team getting into the NIT.  Considering the youth, is there value in any of the other post-season events?

  So what is your guess as to our season record??

Quote from: jsheim on January 25, 2016, 04:11:55 PM
you want Crazy?!?

<Stetson - W>
Butler - W
@SetonHall - W
@Xavier - loss
Providence - W
Creighton - W
@DePaul - W
@Creighton - loss
Villanova - loss
Georgetown - W
@Butler - W
-----------------------
10-8 BE
1-1 BET
-----------------------
22-11

(And the Big Dance Baby!!)  :o ::) ?-( ;)

... and the winner of crazy is ...

 :) Optimistic me says NIT.

:o Drunk me says NCAA.

:( Sad me says no post-season tourney.

Quote from: mu03eng on January 25, 2016, 08:49:16 AMNot to be super negative, but how exactly are we going to win 6 of 10 against top 50 competition?

By doing the same thing we did in November. Improving. This is a very young team that is just now understanding how to play in this league.

The only game I think is unwinnable is Xavier. Everyone else we have played, we've shown we can play with. Not saying we win them all (definitely expecting losses on the road at Creighton and XU) but I'm betting on the staff getting Henry to shoot fewer threes, Duane finding consistency as a starter, and continued improvement.

Maybe I'm just the eternal optimist. And that said, I also think with that we probably miss the NCAAs.