Chad Ford has nice piece on Power Forwards in the 2016 Draft. Henry is ranked 2nd in the Class for PF (7th overall for NBA prospects).
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/14056095/croatia-dragan-bender-marquette-henry-ellenson-top-power-forward-prospects-rankings-nba-draft-2016 (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/14056095/croatia-dragan-bender-marquette-henry-ellenson-top-power-forward-prospects-rankings-nba-draft-2016)
If you're not a subscriber here's the Henry text:
QuoteEllenson broke his hand in March, robbing him of the opportunity to show off his game to scouts at the McDonald's All American Game and the Nike Hoop Summit. Otherwise he would be more front of mind in NBA circles.
He's the rare big man with such a complete offensive package: great athletic ability, the strength to dominate in the post, the shooting ability to stretch the floor and terrific ballhandling skills. He dominated in a four-game trip to Italy for Marquette in August, averaging 21 points and 7.5 rebounds. In other words, he can be an instant impact player.
Concerns about his defense abound. And there were conditioning questions until he slimmed down during the past year to a svelte 228. Overall, he's the closest thing we've seen to Kevin Love since Love.
"He's the most underrated kid in this draft class," one NBA scout said. "His game and his body have improved so much the past year. Offensively, there isn't anything this kid can't do.
"He's a bit of a defensive liability right now, but there's no reason he has to be. He's got great mobility and long arms. He just needs to learn how to play on that end, too. I think he'll pick it up on that end with time. I wouldn't be surprised if you have him in your top five in June."
He gowne.
I heard from a good source recently that Henry is loving his time here at MU and that this source feels good about Henry staying(80%). He said that at the beginning of the year he felt it was more like 50%. I think Henry gets along great with his teammates and he is really close with Wally. I just don't think that he will leave his boys brhind after this year. I think that after this year the team will be very optimistic about next year and they will have unfinished business. If I was a betting man I would bet on him staying, but I obviously won't be shocked if he turns pro following this season
Quote from: Celtic Truth on November 06, 2015, 02:45:20 PM
I heard from a good source recently that Henry is loving his time here at MU and that this source feels good about Henry staying(80%). He said that at the beginning of the year he felt it was more like 50%. I think Henry gets along great with his teammates and he is really close with Wally. I just don't think that he will leave his boys brhind after this year. I think that after this year the team will be very optimistic about next year and they will have unfinished business. If I was a betting man I would bet on him staying, but I obviously won't be shocked if he turns pro following this season
He likes college?
Quote from: Celtic Truth on November 06, 2015, 02:45:20 PM
I heard from a good source recently that Henry is loving his time here at MU and that this source feels good about Henry staying(80%). He said that at the beginning of the year he felt it was more like 50%. I think Henry gets along great with his teammates and he is really close with Wally. I just don't think that he will leave his boys brhind after this year. I think that after this year the team will be very optimistic about next year and they will have unfinished business. If I was a betting man I would bet on him staying, but I obviously won't be shocked if he turns pro following this season
If he is projected as a top 5 pick at the end of the season, it would be a downright poor decision for him to stay at MU.
I am in the "possibly 2 years" camp.
But if he really gets the vibe that he will be top 5, it will be VERY difficult to stay.
Then again, at this time a few years ago Harrison Barnes was a top-3 draft prospect before he laced 'em up for UNC. Stuff happens.
I hope Henry is as incredible this season as many believe he will be. I hope he leads us into the second weekend of the NCAAs. And then I hope he has a tough decision to make.
If he goes, he goes. But even that won't be all bad for Wojo because it will show a 1-and-done talent can come to MU, prosper, and be a top-5 pick.
It's all good!
The only thing that might not be good are the 3 or 4 new posts every week on this topic!!
Quote from: Celtic Truth on November 06, 2015, 02:45:20 PM
I heard from a good source recently that Henry is loving his time here at MU and that this source feels good about Henry staying(80%). He said that at the beginning of the year he felt it was more like 50%. I think Henry gets along great with his teammates and he is really close with Wally. I just don't think that he will leave his boys behind after this year. I think that after this year the team will be very optimistic about next year and they will have unfinished business. If I was a betting man I would bet on him staying, but I obviously won't be shocked if he turns pro following this season
With all due respect to our tradition, we're not a one-and-done school!
For that reason alone, I believe Henry is more than a one-and-done player. If he was one-and-donehe would not have gone to Marquette with a brand new coach and unknown system. He would have gone to Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, Duke, Maryland or maybe Florida. These are known powers with known capability to showcase the very best.
I'm looking forward to two or even three years! Unless we screw up along the way!
Quote from: dgies9156 on November 06, 2015, 03:27:05 PM
With all due respect to our tradition, we're not a one-and-done school!
For that reason alone, I believe Henry is more than a one-and-done player. If he was one-and-donehe would not have gone to Marquette with a brand new coach and unknown system. He would have gone to Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, Duke, Maryland or maybe Florida. These are known powers with known capability to showcase the very best.
I'm looking forward to two or even three years! Unless we screw up along the way!
No.
If Henry is projected as a top five pick, and he sticks around for his second year, he's not thinking clearly.
Quote from: The Sultan of Sunshine on November 06, 2015, 03:36:05 PM
If Henry is projected as a top five pick, and he sticks around for his second year, he's not thinking clearly.
No, he would be thinking just fine. Money is not the main motivator for everyone. If the kid wants to play another year with his brother or just loves college that much than more power to him.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on November 06, 2015, 03:48:21 PM
No, he would be thinking just fine. Money is not the main motivator for everyone. If the kid wants to play another year with his brother or just loves college that much than more power to him.
I am struggling to come up with someone who actually did that as a projected top five pick.
Quote from: The Sultan of Sunshine on November 06, 2015, 03:50:28 PM
I am struggling to come up with someone who actually did that as a projected top five pick.
Marcus Smart .... Chad Ford had him at #2 for the 2013 draft but he stuck around
http://www.orlandopinstripedpost.com/2013/4/10/4207848/2013-nba-mock-draft-marcus-smart-orlando-magic (http://www.orlandopinstripedpost.com/2013/4/10/4207848/2013-nba-mock-draft-marcus-smart-orlando-magic)
Quote from: NYWarrior on November 06, 2015, 03:54:11 PM
Marcus Smart was pretty close after his freshman season, Chad Ford had him at #2
http://www.orlandopinstripedpost.com/2013/4/10/4207848/2013-nba-mock-draft-marcus-smart-orlando-magic (http://www.orlandopinstripedpost.com/2013/4/10/4207848/2013-nba-mock-draft-marcus-smart-orlando-magic)
OK. You got me.
Marcus Smart and Blake Griffin are the two best examples of guys who lived up the hype on the court and stayed.
Unfortunately we are not in Oklahoma.
Forget money, I would think Henry would want to compete against the very best.
Yea, Marcus Smart is probably the best example. His stock took a hit too the next season.
Blake Griffin has been offered up as an example numerous times. Huge hype -- much more than Henry. Incredible physical specimen. But he stayed in college a second year.
Marcus Smart, as others just said (and have said before).
In this thread, I offered Harrison Barnes, who at this point in their respective careers was higher ranked than Henry.
Kyle Singler was higher-ranked coming out of high school and ended up playing FOUR years at Duke.
Years back, obviously, Tim Duncan. It was unusual to come out after one year back then, but not all that unusual to come out after two and certainly not after three -- especially given that he would have been the No. 1 overall pick. But he stayed for four.
I can't remember which thread it was, but there were plenty of other examples.
Stuff happens. Right now, all this is a bunch of chatter.
For some folks, money isn't the primary driver, especially when a person can convince himself that the money still will be there a year later and especially when that person's family isn't hurting financially.
I don't think Henry would be stupid at all to stay if he wanted to stay. Nor do I think he would be stupid to go if he ended up getting drafted later than he had been led to believe. It's his life. He should do what makes him happy.
I think the best chance we have of Henry staying for his sophomore year is if he believes we can make a very deep NCAA tournament run in 2017.
From what I gather, he was deeply disappointed when he had to sit out of his HS state championship game because of his injury. He will never have the opportunity to do that again, just like he will never have the opportunity to play in the Final Four if he is a one-and-done (I'm assuming we only make it to the Elite Eight this year ;D ). And with the added bonus of doing it along side his brother - I can see it.
Quote from: ChitownSpaceForRent on November 06, 2015, 04:06:59 PM
Yea, Marcus Smart is probably the best example. His stock took a hit too the next season.
As it should. It speaks to his decision making ability.
Quote from: The Sultan of Sunshine on November 06, 2015, 03:56:42 PM
OK. You got me.
Not hoops but Andrew Luck would have been the #1 overall pick but still stayed another year.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on November 06, 2015, 03:48:21 PM
No, he would be thinking just fine. Money is not the main motivator for everyone. If the kid wants to play another year with his brother or just loves college that much than more power to him.
Disagree. Take the money and run if he ends up that high.
As far as "taking the money" goes, there is the issue with the NBA's collective bargaining agreement, as there's an opt-out for both sides after the 16-17 season. A 2017-18 rookie deal might end up being worth more than a deal that's in it's second year during the same season.
Quote from: Brewtown Andy on November 06, 2015, 04:58:58 PM
As far as "taking the money" goes, there is the issue with the NBA's collective bargaining agreement, as there's an opt-out for both sides after the 16-17 season. A 2017-18 rookie deal might end up being worth more than a deal that's in it's second year during the same season.
This has been discussed before. The rookie wages will stay the same.
Not to mention, a player's rookie contract is not where a player makes his money. It's his second contract and beyond. The quicker a player gets to that, the more money he makes in his career.
If he stayed, he'd make $0.00 next year ('16-'17) and then make maybe an extra $200K for the next 2 years ('16-'18, '18-'19) assuming his draft stock goes slightly up (not a whole lot of room to go up when you're already a top 10 pick). Then in '19-'20, he'd continue with his "small" rookie contract instead of being able to cash in big time. That could be a net negative of about $17M.
So by staying, you lose out on, say, $2M next year, gain back $400K the following 2 years, and then lose out on maybe $17M the 3rd year. So, if you want to take the money and run, you absolutely leave college ASAP.
Quote from: 79Warrior on November 06, 2015, 04:48:12 PM
Disagree. Take the money and run if he ends up that high.
That's exactly what I'd do to.
However, I'm sure we all know people who have made decisions we scratch our heads at: the super talented manager that quit to work at a non profit, the doctor who stopped practicing medicine to get a law degree, the kid who wanted to try his own thing instead of working at the family business, etc., etc.
Hopefully he'll do what makes him happy and not what he feels pressured, either way, to do.
Quote from: The Sultan of Sunshine on November 06, 2015, 03:50:28 PM
I am struggling to come up with someone who actually did that as a projected top five pick.
I'm pretty sure Noah was considered a potential #1 pick when he decided to stay at Florida to go for another title.
I think the Blake Griffin comparison is best. Everyone knew the talent was there, but still suggested things for him to work on. He also wanted to play with his brother Taylor in his senior year, and the family wasn't hurting.
I could see Henry staying to chase a deep run especially considering Luke and Duane will be talented upper classmen, and to finish out Wally's career.
Quote from: Vander Blue Man Group on November 06, 2015, 06:14:44 PM
I'm pretty sure Noah was considered a potential #1 pick when he decided to stay at Florida to go for another title.
Thank God, he did. The next year, he dropped all the way to ninth in the draft. That's the only way the Bulls could have gotten him.
If Milwaukee had the number one pick (I get that its not likely) would they take Henry, given that they have Jabari and Giannis?
Why don't we just enjoy this year while we have HE and assume that he'll be gone. This is the downside of getting top rated recruits; you can't get too greedy.
Quote from: wadesworld on November 06, 2015, 05:45:04 PM
This has been discussed before. The rookie wages will stay the same.
Not to mention, a player's rookie contract is not where a player makes his money. It's his second contract and beyond. The quicker a player gets to that, the more money he makes in his career.
If he stayed, he'd make $0.00 next year ('16-'17) and then make maybe an extra $200K for the next 2 years ('16-'18, '18-'19) assuming his draft stock goes slightly up (not a whole lot of room to go up when you're already a top 10 pick). Then in '19-'20, he'd continue with his "small" rookie contract instead of being able to cash in big time. That could be a net negative of about $17M.
So by staying, you lose out on, say, $2M next year, gain back $400K the following 2 years, and then lose out on maybe $17M the 3rd year. So, if you want to take the money and run, you absolutely leave college ASAP.
I find it hard to believe that the rookie money is going to be frozen in place with the cap increases.
Let's see, drivin' a Ferrari vs Ford Fusion, livin' in a dorm vs da 6000 sq ft. high rise bachelor pad, wearin' Brioni vs Kirkland, Rolex vs Swatch, Prada vs DSW, dry aged Kobe vs Mickey D's. Oh yeah and intact ACL vs reattached ACL. Tough choice hey?
Quote from: Brewtown Andy on November 07, 2015, 08:25:28 AM
I find it hard to believe that the rookie money is going to be frozen in place with the cap increases.
There was an article shared here some time ago saying the rookie deals would go unchanged. But let's pretend they don't. So if he stays another year he loses out on the $2M he'd make in the first year of his rookie contract and then over the next 2 years he'd make, say, an extra $4M? So after '18-'19 Henry's at minus $2M. But then instead of being on the final year of his rookie contract at generously, say, $7M if it jumps that much based on where he'd be drafted. If he left right away, he might be signing a contract worth $20M/year if he can be even close to as productive as a guy like John Henson (not asking a TON, but also not bad, and given that I think you'll see GMs thinking Henry will have a higher ceiling at that point of his career than what GMs see John as having now). So, at a minimum, he's setting himself back by $13M that year and you're at the very least $11M back on your potential earnings in your career.
Shred your knee as a sophomore and, well, you're minus a whole lot of money.
Where's the Ron Paul meme at a time like this?
Quote from: wadesworld on November 07, 2015, 10:15:53 AM
There was an article shared here some time ago saying the rookie deals would go unchanged. But let's pretend they don't. So if he stays another year he loses out on the $2M he'd make in the first year of his rookie contract and then over the next 2 years he'd make, say, an extra $4M? So after '18-'19 Henry's at minus $2M. But then instead of being on the final year of his rookie contract at generously, say, $7M if it jumps that much based on where he'd be drafted. If he left right away, he might be signing a contract worth $20M/year if he can be even close to as productive as a guy like John Henson (not asking a TON, but also not bad, and given that I think you'll see GMs thinking Henry will have a higher ceiling at that point of his career than what GMs see John as having now). So, at a minimum, he's setting himself back by $13M that year and you're at the very least $11M back on your potential earnings in your career.
Shred your knee as a sophomore and, well, you're minus a whole lot of money.
Two things to consider: he can take insurance out on a significant injury(probably should for this year as well) and while the 2nd contract is the important thing to think about, the timing of that contract is critical.
There will be a lot of players re-upping for one season at the end of this year like Lebron(my prediction) looking for the max contracts when the cap jumps in 2017. That means a lot of expiring contracts in 2020 and 2021 when Henry would be looking for his 2nd contract if he left after his sophomore year. So in theory the 2nd contract after sophomore year could be more lucrative than after his freshmen year (lot of dead cap money with the new Cap contracts)
However, I think if it boils down to money he goes this year (assuming he is ranked top 5). If money isn't the primary drive there is enough of an argument to be made that he can have his cake and eat it to(great money after while playing with his brother/teammates/win championship).
Can't wait for the season to start and see how it all works out.
Quote from: wadesworld on November 07, 2015, 10:15:53 AM
There was an article shared here some time ago saying the rookie deals would go unchanged. But let's pretend they don't. So if he stays another year he loses out on the $2M he'd make in the first year of his rookie contract and then over the next 2 years he'd make, say, an extra $4M? So after '18-'19 Henry's at minus $2M. But then instead of being on the final year of his rookie contract at generously, say, $7M if it jumps that much based on where he'd be drafted. If he left right away, he might be signing a contract worth $20M/year if he can be even close to as productive as a guy like John Henson (not asking a TON, but also not bad, and given that I think you'll see GMs thinking Henry will have a higher ceiling at that point of his career than what GMs see John as having now). So, at a minimum, he's setting himself back by $13M that year and you're at the very least $11M back on your potential earnings in your career.
Shred your knee as a sophomore and, well, you're minus a whole lot of money.
What that article actually said is that the rookie scale set for 2016 draftees would not rise with the cap. But the rookie scale would potentially be increased in the new collective bargaining agreement, setting up a situation where 2017 draftees could be making more than 2016 second-years.
That said, it's Henry's decision to make and none of us have a right to question his sanity or his loyalty whichever way he chooses..
Quote from: Ellenson Guerrero on November 06, 2015, 11:04:36 PM
Why don't we just enjoy this year while we have HE and assume that he'll be gone. This is the downside of getting top rated recruits; you can't get too greedy.
FIFY
Quote from: MomofMUltiples on November 07, 2015, 07:18:03 PM
What that article actually said is that the rookie scale set for 2016 draftees would not rise with the cap. But the rookie scale would potentially be increased in the new collective bargaining agreement, setting up a situation where 2017 draftees could be making more than 2016 second-years.
That said, it's Henry's decision to make and none of us have a right to question his sanity or his loyalty whichever way he chooses..
FIFY
Got it. That makes sense. I guess my point is that if Henry (or any basketball player) wants to maximize their career earnings, their best option is to get to the NBA as soon as possible. Even if they might make a few more million dollars a year for the first couple of years, the $0.00 they make the years before they go to the NBA make a huge difference and the years that you're already in your second contract also make a huge difference compared to finishing out your rookie contract, even if it is a higher paying rookie contract.
This Chad Ford? http://deadspin.com/sources-espn-really-has-no-way-to-tell-who-changed-dra-1681858027
Why does anyone care about what Henry Ellenson does after this season BEFORE he's played a single game?
Or is this just another example of needing something to talk about because there's no actual basketball to talk about yet?
Quote from: Marcus92 on November 08, 2015, 02:41:58 PM
Why does anyone care about what Henry Ellenson does after this season BEFORE he's played a single game?
Or is this just another example of needing something to talk about because there's no actual basketball to talk about yet?
His 30 or so games at MU are just 1 part of how NBA scouts will evaluate him. His time with Team USA, prominent shoe camps, his AAU play and some HS games all factor in. NBA teams don't need to see HE in the Big East to know where they want to draft him.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on November 07, 2015, 09:13:03 PM
This Chad Ford? http://deadspin.com/sources-espn-really-has-no-way-to-tell-who-changed-dra-1681858027
Obviously Chad Ford's Mock of HE at 7 is waaaaaay too high. So instead lets reference your friends at DraftExpress; they have HE at 8.
http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2016/
Quote from: The Lens on November 08, 2015, 02:51:51 PM
His 30 or so games at MU are just 1 part of how NBA scouts will evaluate him. His time with Team USA, prominent shoe camps, his AAU play and some HS games all factor in. NBA teams don't need to see HE in the Big East to know where they want to draft him.
Well, they might like to see how the year goes, to see if he is continuing on that progression of potential that the NBA draft seems to be based on. And, this year puts all those past games behind him, literally and figuratively. But, yes, this year is just part of the overall package of evaluation.
It is great to see the excitement about Henry but why worry if he will stay? All moments of trimuph are fleeting so enjoy them when you can. To worry about the future destroys the success of the present.
Quote from: Class71 on November 08, 2015, 06:44:28 PM
It is great to see the excitement about Henry but why worry if he will stay? All moments of trimuph are fleeting so enjoy them when you can. To worry about the future destroys the success of the present.
I'm in a wedding at the Ritz in Naples this weekend and all I can think about is making sure my Fox Sports Go streams Belmont. I don't think you need to tell me to enjoy the present.
Sophia there gives great massages. May wanna check her out if she's still employed, hey?
Quote from: wadesworld on November 07, 2015, 07:26:48 PM
Got it. That makes sense. I guess my point is that if Henry (or any basketball player) wants to maximize their career earnings, their best option is to get to the NBA as soon as possible. Even if they might make a few more million dollars a year for the first couple of years, the $0.00 they make the years before they go to the NBA make a huge difference and the years that you're already in your second contract also make a huge difference compared to finishing out your rookie contract, even if it is a higher paying rookie contract.
Of course, this would be true if life existed in a vacuum.
I can't think of anyone off hand, but has anyone who was an amazing talent and projected lottery pick left early, and lived up to the hype on draft day ever struggle just enough in training camp that he was a borderline survivor on cut day only to watch his career go down the crapper from there?
"Setting the tone early" is not only applicable in game situations, it's also applicable to one's career. Someone could be an otherwise all-star caliber player, but a bad rookie campaign could do enough psychological damage to torpedo one's career. Getting your first taste of adversity in the league isn't necessarily bad, but it could be potentially damaging for some.
So I would say no, getting to the NBA as fast as you can isn't always the way to maximize career earnings. You need to be ready, both on the floor and in your head. Hell, look at JFB... granted, he wasn't a lottery pick, but do you think he'd have a max contract in his pocket right now had he left after his junior year?
I'm not saying that any of the above applies to Henry, but especially when "money itself" is the goal, it's not always fruitful to skip the line. If "money now" is the goal, then sure, declare as soon as you can.
Quote from: Benny B on November 09, 2015, 09:06:58 PM
Of course, this would be true if life existed in a vacuum.
I can't think of anyone off hand, but has anyone who was an amazing talent and projected lottery pick left early, and lived up to the hype on draft day ever struggle just enough in training camp that he was a borderline survivor on cut day only to watch his career go down the crapper from there?
"Setting the tone early" is not only applicable in game situations, it's also applicable to one's career. Someone could be an otherwise all-star caliber player, but a bad rookie campaign could do enough psychological damage to torpedo one's career. Getting your first taste of adversity in the league isn't necessarily bad, but it could be potentially damaging for some.
So I would say no, getting to the NBA as fast as you can isn't always the way to maximize career earnings. You need to be ready, both on the floor and in your head. Hell, look at JFB... granted, he wasn't a lottery pick, but do you think he'd have a max contract in his pocket right now had he left after his junior year?
I'm not saying that any of the above applies to Henry, but especially when "money itself" is the goal, it's not always fruitful to skip the line. If "money now" is the goal, then sure, declare as soon as you can.
Adam Morrison might be close to what you're thinking. Left early, drafted #3, doesn't really live up to the hype and loses starting job during rookie year. Never does much of anything (but also suffers an ACL injury).
Quote from: Benny B on November 09, 2015, 09:06:58 PM
Of course, this would be true if life existed in a vacuum.
I can't think of anyone off hand, but has anyone who was an amazing talent and projected lottery pick left early, and lived up to the hype on draft day ever struggle just enough in training camp that he was a borderline survivor on cut day only to watch his career go down the crapper from there?
"Setting the tone early" is not only applicable in game situations, it's also applicable to one's career. Someone could be an otherwise all-star caliber player, but a bad rookie campaign could do enough psychological damage to torpedo one's career. Getting your first taste of adversity in the league isn't necessarily bad, but it could be potentially damaging for some.
So I would say no, getting to the NBA as fast as you can isn't always the way to maximize career earnings. You need to be ready, both on the floor and in your head. Hell, look at JFB... granted, he wasn't a lottery pick, but do you think he'd have a max contract in his pocket right now had he left after his junior year?
I'm not saying that any of the above applies to Henry, but especially when "money itself" is the goal, it's not always fruitful to skip the line. If "money now" is the goal, then sure, declare as soon as you can.
I don't think Jimmy would have a maximum contract right now if he would've left after his junior year because Jimmy wasn't anywhere close to ready for the NBA and wouldn't have been selected in the draft at all. It's much harder to go from undrafted and playing overseas to getting a spot in the NBA. Getting into the NBA is the toughest part. Once you're there it's a lot easier to find a role and do it well. Just ask Novak and, heck, Diener, who both made it to their 2nd contracts without doing a whole lot of anything in the NBA (outside of Novak's time in NY, which was already his 2nd contract).
If you aren't good enough to make it in the league then scouts and GMs are going to figure that out the longer you're in college. If you're projected in the lottery, the best way to maximize your career earnings is to get to the NBA as fast as possible. Practicing against the best with the best coaches every day for as long as you'd like is much better for your development as a player than dominating in a limited amount of time on the college level.
How many potential top 10-15 picks come back to college and actually improve their draft stock? Pretty much all of those Florida players dropped. Dominic James never had an NBA career because he came back. Etc., etc., etc. If a player with lottery hype has holes in their game that are going to prevent them from becoming at the very least solid role players for multiple contracts, those holes will be figured out well before they even reach the NBA and it will only hurt their career earnings.
Now yes, if Haniif Cheatham tried to leave after this season to enter the NBA Draft, well, he's taking the maybe 5% chance of ever playing in the NBA and turning it into a 0.00000000001% chance. But I meant players who are a lock to be first round picks. Very, very few players who at least have the physical tools to compete and progress with the best players in the world are going to progress more in college than they will on an NBA roster.