Just wondering if people think Luke will get the start tonight?
yes
Yes on Luke. I would expect...
C - Luke Fischer
F - Juan Anderson
G - Duane Wilson
G - Matt Carlino
G - Derrick Wilson
It wouldn't surprise me at all if Steve was out there in place of one of the Wilsons.
Of course he starts. Ain't savin' him for the Tourney, hey?
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 16, 2014, 10:33:02 AM
Yes on Luke. I would expect...
C - Luke Fischer
F - Juan Anderson
G - Duane Wilson
G - Matt Carlino
G - Derrick Wilson
It wouldn't surprise me at all if Steve was out there in place of one of the Wilsons.
I was thinking the same, but with only 3 guys to play the '4' and '5', I don't know if Wojo will play them together to start games. If they can avoid foul trouble, I would expect to see them on the floor together at times in the 2nd half. But that's just a guess on my part.
I hope so but I think Wojo will stay with Taylor and Juan as starters.
In my mind, a better question is how much time does Luke get? Do you start off riding him like a horse, or do you try to break him into things more gradually?
Ultimately, I suppose it will come down to how he responds during the game. I would be surprised (and probably concerned) if he didn't start. Concerned because Steve hasn't exactly set the world on fire, and with playing time being earned in practice, it would seem to mean that Steve was outplaying Luke there.
Quote from: MuMark on December 16, 2014, 10:44:43 AM
I hope so but I think Wojo will stay with Taylor and Juan as starters.
Why? We've been getting destroyed on the tip and I think that Luie could definitely help change that. At least till sky jumping Wally comes in next year.
Quote from: LittleMurs on December 16, 2014, 10:50:28 AM
In my mind, a better question is how much time does Luke get? Do you start off riding him like a horse, or do you try to break him into things more gradually?
Ultimately, I suppose it will come down to how he responds during the game. I would be surprised (and probably concerned) if he didn't start. Concerned because Steve hasn't exactly set the world on fire, and with playing time being earned in practice, it would seem to mean that Steve was outplaying Luke there.
Ride him early and often like a cheap whore, hey Murray?
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on December 16, 2014, 10:52:24 AM
Why? We've been getting destroyed on the tip and I think that Luie could definitely help change that. At least till sky jumping Wally comes in next year.
In an alternate possession world, winning the opening tip is inconsequential.
With the lack of depth down low, I wouldn't be surprised to see some 4-1 offense with 3 on the wing, 1 ball-side box, and 1 escape. This way Steve and Juan can be taken off the floor when they both need a break.
Quote from: CTWarrior on December 16, 2014, 11:14:43 AM
In an alternate possession world, winning the opening tip is inconsequential.
Except for those games where an odd-number of jump-balls are called and one team has an extra possession.
So it can have quite a significant impact, especially when you consider how many games MU has had over the last few seasons that have come down to the last possession.
Quote from: LittleMurs on December 16, 2014, 10:50:28 AM
In my mind, a better question is how much time does Luke get? Do you start off riding him like a horse, or do you try to break him into things more gradually?
Ultimately, I suppose it will come down to how he responds during the game. I would be surprised (and probably concerned) if he didn't start. Concerned because Steve hasn't exactly set the world on fire, and with playing time being earned in practice, it would seem to mean that Steve was outplaying Luke there.
I would guess 20-25 minutes, but a lot of that will depend on fouls and how ASU is playing. ASU isn't that much bigger than we are now. Jacobsen comps with Fischer, Taylor and Juan give up a little size to Atwood and Gilling, but beyond that they don't have anyone taller than 6'6".
The worry is if no one else can deal with Jacobsen. If Wojo tries to mirror his minutes with Fischer, it could be tough as the guy is averaging over 33 mpg. He has been pretty much impossible to stop so far, the only team to hold him below 50% from the field is UNLV, and he went for 16 pts/12 rebs in ASU's romp over the Rebels.
I think the best plan is for our guards to attack Jacobsen and try to get him in foul trouble. It worked for TAMU, who held him to just 3 FGA and not one trip to the line -- Jacobsen has 6+ free throw attempts in 6 of their last 8 games, and converts at a 70% clip. Of course, Jacobsen also fouled out of that game. Get him in foul trouble, limit his minutes, allow Luke to match up with him, I think we will be okay. That said, I'd guess ASU has a similar game plan.
Carlino
Duane
Derrick
Juan
Luke
Steve, JjJ, and Sandy all get healthy minutes.
Quote from: CTWarrior on December 16, 2014, 11:14:43 AM
In an alternate possession world, winning the opening tip is inconsequential.
Not on this board. Threads were exhausted on just that by people expounding on how important it was to start Otule so we could get the tip. And there were plenty advocating just that.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on December 16, 2014, 12:28:43 PM
Carlino
Duane
Derrick
Juan
Luke
Steve, JjJ, and Sandy all get healthy minutes.
My thinking as well.
Quote from: CTWarrior on December 16, 2014, 11:14:43 AM
In an alternate possession world, winning the opening tip is inconsequential.
Not true. Winning the opening tip guarantees at worst you get the same number of possessions, and could possibly get as many as 2 more.
Quote from: GooooMarquette on December 16, 2014, 12:33:13 PM
My thinking as well.
Finally, Wojo will play the entire bench.
Quote from: Windyplayer on December 16, 2014, 12:36:20 PM
Finally, Wojo will play the entire bench.
I hear Wojo is nailing Peter Theus to the bench in order to get another walk on
I expect the starting line-up will not change tonight but expect Luke to be substituted early. It is going to take time to have him fit in with the team.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 16, 2014, 12:35:08 PM
Not true. Winning the opening tip guarantees at worst you get the same number of possessions, and could possibly get as many as 2 more.
This
I think it's:
Luke
Juan
Wilson
Wilson
Carlino
I think Luke gets 20 minutes max, between fouls and experience I think that would be the most we can ask for.
ASU is very turnover prone, I think we attack the ball and play limited zone this game. I think even when Luke is in they will front Jacobsen and let everyone else man-up.
I think Derrick has a huge game on D and turns them over and I think Du goes off for 21 and drives on Jacobsen a lot forcing some foul trouble or easy dishes to Luke.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on December 16, 2014, 12:48:06 PM
This
The amount of possessions difference for the season is about half of one. If you put in an inferior player to win the opening tip, you more than likely negate that minute advantage. On top of which a good guy might increae the likeihood of winning the opening taps maybe 20% (from forty to 60%, say) or one extra time in 5 games. All in all, about 317th on the list of things you should concern yourself with when prepping a lineup.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 16, 2014, 12:35:08 PM
Not true. Winning the opening tip guarantees at worst you get the same number of possessions, and could possibly get as many as 2 more.
Brew, how can a team get as many as 2 more possessions when winning the tip? I understand we could get one more, but how could we get 2? Maybe I am missing something.
Quote from: CTWarrior on December 16, 2014, 01:06:42 PM
The amount of possessions difference for the season is about half of one.
So about half of games end in an extra possession for one team. If a team is able to gain an extra possession for a game, and that team averages over 1 point per possession (not sure what MU's is currently and dont have the time/know where to look this up), that team already has a 1-0 lead.
Quote from: CTWarrior on December 16, 2014, 01:06:42 PM
If you put in an inferior player to win the opening tip, you more than likely negate that minute advantage.
Yet here we are not talking about about putting in a bench warmer to play til the first substitution opportunity, we are talking about two guys who are going to earn lots of minutes, so this argument goes out the window.
Quote from: CTWarrior on December 16, 2014, 01:06:42 PM
On top of which a good guy might increae the likeihood of winning the opening taps maybe 20% (from forty to 60%, say) or one extra time in 5 games.
But here the difference is going from a guy who is 6'6" to a guy who is 6'11". I really don't know what the probability increase of winning the tip would be, but I would guess its around 75% increase of winning the tip for MU.
Quote from: CTWarrior on December 16, 2014, 01:06:42 PM
All in all, about 317th on the list of things you should concern yourself with when prepping a lineup.
All in all, take any advantage you can to win the game. Whether it be switching a player's minutes from playing minutes 6-10, to 1-5, so we can average 0.5 more points per game.
Quote from: WarriorInNYC on December 16, 2014, 01:19:27 PM
But here the difference is going from a guy who is 6'6" to a guy who is 6'11". I really don't know what the probability increase of winning the tip would be, but I would guess its around 75% increase of winning the tip for MU.
There is no way we're going from 25% to 100% with Fischer jumping center, or 0% to 75%. The number is not 50%.
The way you get two extra possessions is if you win the tap, there is another jump ball during the first half, and you close the first half with the ball and start the second half with the ball and finish the game with the ball.
I think Luke comes off the bench for a couple games to get his feet wet.
Quote from: CTWarrior on December 16, 2014, 01:25:23 PM
There is no way we're going from 25% to 100% with Fischer jumping center, or 0% to 75%. The number is not 50%.
Agreed. I put that number out there without even really thinking about that at all. I wouldn't be surprised if it increased around 50%. I think we have won one tip this year (I could easily be wrong on this)? And this has been going against some pretty small teams. When we start looking at the rest of our schedule, most teams have players that Anderson will not be able to win the tip against.
Total immersion. Luke starts. Luke, Juan, and STjr rotate equally at the 4-5. If there is foul trouble, Sandy gets minutes at the 4. Derrick, Duane, and Matt each play somewhere around 30 minutes each. Sandy and JJJ go for around 15 each, with more possible for either if they get hot.
C Fischer
PF Taylor
SF Anderson
SG Carlino
PG Duane
Derrick will come in as soon as ASU presses us. It has greatly surprised me how Carlino does not want to bring the ball up against the press.
Quote from: Nukem2 on December 16, 2014, 01:26:17 PM
I think Luke comes off the bench for a couple games to get his feet wet.
This is my guess, too. He may get a lot of minutes, but I just get the feeling he'll start off coming off the bench first the first game or two.
My bold prediction for the game is that Johnson is the stud of the game. Arizona State was his best game last season and facing a team that turns the ball over a lot should play into his strengths.
I wouldn't start Fischer. I'd bring him in at the media time out so that he gets some time against ASU's second string to hopefully allow him to do well and gain some confidence.
If, on the other hand, he is going to be really nervous sitting waiting to come in, get him in there right away to get over it. I'm sure Wojo has a handle on how he reacts and how he is feeling.
S'pose ASU will work to get MU in foul trouble?
Marquette is favored by 3.5 points and the over/under is 132.
Quote from: GOO on December 16, 2014, 03:30:03 PM
I wouldn't start Fischer. I'd bring him in at the media time out so that he gets some time against ASU's second string to hopefully allow him to do well and gain some confidence.
If, on the other hand, he is going to be really nervous sitting waiting to come in, get him in there right away to get over it. I'm sure Wojo has a handle on how he reacts and how he is feeling.
Not an attack on you, but as a high level D1 athlete, if he is too nervous to start...I'd question his motivation. Get in there and get the job done!
Quote from: bilsu on December 16, 2014, 02:56:41 PM
C Fischer
PF Taylor
SF Anderson
SG Carlino
PG Duane
Derrick will come in as soon as ASU presses us. It has greatly surprised me how Carlino does not want to bring the ball up against the press.
I don't think you play the 3 guys we can use at the 5 at the same time.....same reason we didn't play Burton Taylor and Juan together.
It's going to be either Anderson or Taylor to start, I think Juan starts because of his defense and motor. I think we start 3 guards and turn them over.
Quote from: WarriorInNYC on December 16, 2014, 01:07:33 PM
Brew, how can a team get as many as 2 more possessions when winning the tip? I understand we could get one more, but how could we get 2? Maybe I am missing something.
First half, win the tip, finish the half with the ball and the arrow. That's +1, and because of the possession arrow you start the second half with the ball. If you have the last possession of the game, that's +2.
Andrew Gruman says no Luke in the starting lineup.
https://twitter.com/AndrewGruman/status/545032344168448002
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on December 16, 2014, 03:26:01 PM
My bold prediction for the game is that Johnson is the stud of the game. Arizona State was his best game last season and facing a team that turns the ball over a lot should play into his strengths.
Nice work TAMU....
Bump
Quote from: mu03eng on December 16, 2014, 03:39:23 PM
Not an attack on you, but as a high level D1 athlete, if he is too nervous to start...I'd question his motivation. Get in there and get the job done!
Before tonight's game Fischer had all of 130 minutes of D1 experience. First game in your hometown in front of family and friends. He was nervous/rusty for all of one possession and ended up having a terrific game.