Starters Vs. ASU

[Teddyp]

Just wondering if people think Luke will get the start tonight?

[tower912]

yes

[brewcity77]

Yes on Luke. I would expect...

C - Luke Fischer
F - Juan Anderson
G - Duane Wilson
G - Matt Carlino
G - Derrick Wilson

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Steve was out there in place of one of the Wilsons.

[4everwarriors]

Of course he starts. Ain't savin' him for the Tourney, hey?

[brandx]

Yes on Luke. I would expect...

C - Luke Fischer
F - Juan Anderson
G - Duane Wilson
G - Matt Carlino
G - Derrick Wilson

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Steve was out there in place of one of the Wilsons.

I was thinking the same, but with only 3 guys to play the '4' and '5', I don't know if Wojo will play them together to start games. If they can avoid foul trouble, I would expect to see them on the floor together at times in the 2nd half. But that's just a guess on my part.

[MuMark]

I hope so but I think Wojo will stay with Taylor and Juan as starters.

[Dawson Rental]

In my mind, a better question is how much time does Luke get?  Do you start off riding him like a horse, or do you try to break him into things more gradually?

Ultimately, I suppose it will come down to how he responds during the game.  I would be surprised (and probably concerned) if he didn't start.  Concerned because Steve hasn't exactly set the world on fire, and with playing time being earned in practice, it would seem to mean that Steve was outplaying Luke there.

[Galway Eagle]

I hope so but I think Wojo will stay with Taylor and Juan as starters.

Why? We've been getting destroyed on the tip and I think that Luie could definitely help change that. At least till sky jumping Wally comes in next year.

[4everwarriors]

In my mind, a better question is how much time does Luke get?  Do you start off riding him like a horse, or do you try to break him into things more gradually?

Ultimately, I suppose it will come down to how he responds during the game.  I would be surprised (and probably concerned) if he didn't start.  Concerned because Steve hasn't exactly set the world on fire, and with playing time being earned in practice, it would seem to mean that Steve was outplaying Luke there.

Ride him early and often like a cheap whore, hey Murray?

[CTWarrior]

Why? We've been getting destroyed on the tip and I think that Luie could definitely help change that. At least till sky jumping Wally comes in next year.

In an alternate possession world, winning the opening tip is inconsequential.

[Bricky]

With the lack of depth down low, I wouldn't be surprised to see some 4-1 offense with 3 on the wing, 1 ball-side box, and 1 escape. This way Steve and Juan can be taken off the floor when they both need a break.

[WarriorInNYC]

In an alternate possession world, winning the opening tip is inconsequential.

Except for those games where an odd-number of jump-balls are called and one team has an extra possession.

So it can have quite a significant impact, especially when you consider how many games MU has had over the last few seasons that have come down to the last possession.

[brewcity77]

In my mind, a better question is how much time does Luke get?  Do you start off riding him like a horse, or do you try to break him into things more gradually?

Ultimately, I suppose it will come down to how he responds during the game.  I would be surprised (and probably concerned) if he didn't start.  Concerned because Steve hasn't exactly set the world on fire, and with playing time being earned in practice, it would seem to mean that Steve was outplaying Luke there.

I would guess 20-25 minutes, but a lot of that will depend on fouls and how ASU is playing. ASU isn't that much bigger than we are now. Jacobsen comps with Fischer, Taylor and Juan give up a little size to Atwood and Gilling, but beyond that they don't have anyone taller than 6'6".

The worry is if no one else can deal with Jacobsen. If Wojo tries to mirror his minutes with Fischer, it could be tough as the guy is averaging over 33 mpg. He has been pretty much impossible to stop so far, the only team to hold him below 50% from the field is UNLV, and he went for 16 pts/12 rebs in ASU's romp over the Rebels.

I think the best plan is for our guards to attack Jacobsen and try to get him in foul trouble. It worked for TAMU, who held him to just 3 FGA and not one trip to the line -- Jacobsen has 6+ free throw attempts in 6 of their last 8 games, and converts at a 70% clip. Of course, Jacobsen also fouled out of that game. Get him in foul trouble, limit his minutes, allow Luke to match up with him, I think we will be okay. That said, I'd guess ASU has a similar game plan.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Carlino
Duane
Derrick
Juan
Luke

Steve, JjJ, and Sandy all get healthy minutes.

[willie warrior]

In an alternate possession world, winning the opening tip is inconsequential.

Not on this board. Threads were exhausted on just that by people expounding on how important it was to start Otule so we could get the tip. And there were plenty advocating just that.

[GooooMarquette]

Carlino
Duane
Derrick
Juan
Luke

Steve, JjJ, and Sandy all get healthy minutes.

My thinking as well.

[brewcity77]

In an alternate possession world, winning the opening tip is inconsequential.

Not true. Winning the opening tip guarantees at worst you get the same number of possessions, and could possibly get as many as 2 more.

[Windyplayer]

My thinking as well.

Finally, Wojo will play the entire bench.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Finally, Wojo will play the entire bench.

I hear Wojo is nailing Peter Theus to the bench in order to get another walk on

[Class71]

I expect the starting line-up will not change tonight but expect Luke to be substituted early. It is going to take time to have him fit in with the team.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Not true. Winning the opening tip guarantees at worst you get the same number of possessions, and could possibly get as many as 2 more.

This

[mu03eng]

I think it's:
Luke
Juan
Wilson
Wilson
Carlino

I think Luke gets 20 minutes max, between fouls and experience I think that would be the most we can ask for.

ASU is very turnover prone, I think we attack the ball and play limited zone this game.  I think even when Luke is in they will front Jacobsen and let everyone else man-up.

I think Derrick has a huge game on D and turns them over and I think Du goes off for 21 and drives on Jacobsen a lot forcing some foul trouble or easy dishes to Luke.

[CTWarrior]

This

The amount of possessions difference for the season is about half of one.  If you put in an inferior player to win the opening tip, you more than likely negate that minute advantage.  On top of which a good guy might increae the likeihood of winning the opening taps maybe 20% (from forty to 60%, say) or one extra time in 5 games.  All in all, about 317th on the list of things you should concern yourself with when prepping a lineup.

[WarriorInNYC]

Not true. Winning the opening tip guarantees at worst you get the same number of possessions, and could possibly get as many as 2 more.

Brew, how can a team get as many as 2 more possessions when winning the tip?  I understand we could get one more, but how could we get 2?  Maybe I am missing something.

[WarriorInNYC]

The amount of possessions difference for the season is about half of one.

So about half of games end in an extra possession for one team.  If a team is able to gain an extra possession for a game, and that team averages over 1 point per possession (not sure what MU's is currently and dont have the time/know where to look this up), that team already has a 1-0 lead.

If you put in an inferior player to win the opening tip, you more than likely negate that minute advantage.

Yet here we are not talking about about putting in a bench warmer to play til the first substitution opportunity, we are talking about two guys who are going to earn lots of minutes, so this argument goes out the window.

On top of which a good guy might increae the likeihood of winning the opening taps maybe 20% (from forty to 60%, say) or one extra time in 5 games.

But here the difference is going from a guy who is 6'6" to a guy who is 6'11".  I really don't know what the probability increase of winning the tip would be, but I would guess its around 75% increase of winning the tip for MU.

All in all, about 317th on the list of things you should concern yourself with when prepping a lineup.

All in all, take any advantage you can to win the game.  Whether it be switching a player's minutes from playing minutes 6-10, to 1-5, so we can average 0.5 more points per game.