@SJU - Win
Butler - Win
@Seton Hall - Win
Xavier - Win
Creighton - Big Win
@DePaul - Win
GTown - Win
@Nova - Loss
@Prov - Win
SJU - Win
9-1. Final record .. 13-5
I wonder what our RPI would be if we do that. Perhaps we would still need to win one BET game to get an NCAA bid.
Quote from: downtown85 on January 31, 2014, 08:11:56 AM
I wonder what our RPI would be if we do that. Perhaps we would still need to win one BET game to get an NCAA bid.
At 13-5, MU would play a non-NCAA tourney team in the BET. Couldn't afford a loss in that situation. A win wouldn't necessary get MU in, but a loss may knock them out.
Quote from: downtown85 on January 31, 2014, 08:11:56 AM
I wonder what our RPI would be if we do that. Perhaps we would still need to win one BET game to get an NCAA bid.
If we finish 9-1, we're in no matter what. We're not some 12-9 team that lost to a bunch of also rans in December. We have no losses outside the top 100. We're fine if we start winning. Don't look past Saturday tho, I'm not believing until we win 2 in a row.
I've saying 13-5 for weeks.
Quote from: MerrittsMustache on January 31, 2014, 08:14:32 AM
At 13-5, MU would play a non-NCAA tourney team in the BET. Couldn't afford a loss in that situation. A win wouldn't necessary get MU in, but a loss may knock them out.
You don't think 13-5 gets you the 5 or 6 seed?
Quote from: The Lens on January 31, 2014, 08:20:21 AM
You don't think 13-5 gets you the 5 or 6 seed?
You're probably right. 13-5 could put MU anywhere from 3 to 6. Oddly, they might be better off at 6 and getting a shot at NCAA-bound Xavier as opposed to being the 3 and playing 6-seeded NIT-bound Seton Hall.
Quote from: tower912 on January 31, 2014, 08:17:04 AM
I've saying 13-5 for weeks.
I've seen nothing in the last couple weeks to change my opinion that MU will finish 3rd in the Big East. That record would be about right to do so... Maybe 12-6, and yes an NCAA bid.
Quote from: The Lens on January 31, 2014, 08:16:12 AM
If we finish 9-1, we're in no matter what. We're not some 12-9 team that lost to a bunch of also rans in December. We have no losses outside the top 100. We're fine if we start winning. Don't look past Saturday tho, I'm not believing until we win 2 in a row.
I agree. Plus, I'm going to go on record now by saying it's going to be a soft bubble this year.
TEAM BUBBLE WATCH, YO!
This next game is crucial. MU is playing a super talented but completely underachieving StJ team at the Garden. I always hate playing those teams cause you have no idea which team will show up. I imagine it is similar to playing us this year, or Kentucky/UNC during a down year.
So 4-1 on the road the rest of the way. Not sure I'm ready to drink that tasty Kool-Aid.
Lloyd, doable?
Quote from: mu_hilltopper on January 31, 2014, 08:10:05 AM
@SJU - Win
Butler - Win
@Seton Hall - Win
Xavier - Win
Creighton - Big Win
@DePaul - Win
GTown - Win
@Nova - Loss
@Prov - Win
SJU - Win
9-1. Final record .. 13-5
Wow. Would be ecstatic with that! Pass the mushrooms, please. Winning all road games except Nova is eye popping. But what the hell, why not put the Nova game in our column also. Remember, Creighton slaughtered them at home, so we can also.
Quote from: Oldgym on January 31, 2014, 08:51:47 AM
So 4-1 on the road the rest of the way. Not sure I'm ready to drink that tasty Kool-Aid.
Lloyd, doable?
Im ready, and Im still predicting we make the tourney somehow
Quote from: tower912 on January 31, 2014, 08:17:04 AM
I've saying 13-5 for weeks.
Quote from: NavinRJohnson on January 31, 2014, 08:33:15 AM
I've seen nothing in the last couple weeks to change my opinion that MU will finish 3rd in the Big East. That record would be about right to do so... Maybe 12-6, and yes an NCAA bid.
I've seen little in the last couple of weeks that move me beyond thinking that 13-5 (or even 12-6) is possible, but unlikely. Even last night's first half (noted as the best the team has played all season) was followed up by a lackluster 2nd half that highlighted the inconsistency that is a hallmark of this team. (Related, I was struck by how Buzz's first half strategy of throwing 11 guys at PC in hopes of tiring them out seems to ultimately have not done the job. In the second half, the energy seemed to be with PC, but for MU keeping them at bay once they ended the 16-0 run.)
This season so far keeps me believing in the old saying, "I'll believe it when I see it." Doesn't mean that I don't think it can happen, but nothing has given me the confidence to believe that it will happen.
I surely hope that Tower and Navin's optimism comes to fruition.
@SJU - bottom feeder, win.
@Seton Hall - Tougher game, but even KenPom says we'll win.
@DePaul - C'mon. It's DePaul .. KenPom winner again.
@Nova - Loss
@Prov - We just beat these guys by 11. We can do that again.
4-1.
I have yet to exorcise the memory of traveling down to Allstate on 1/20/2010 in an ice storm only to have an awful DePaul team rip my heart out with 7/10 of a second left. There are no gimmes on the road.
But I'd rather read about going 4-1 on the road than another Derrick thread.
Just going to play devil's advocate ;)
Do we make the tournament if we go 12-6? 11-7?
So we are going 9-1 the rest of the season? Wow, that's overly optimistic I think. We haven't even won 2 games in a row since we played IUPUI and Ball St. I'm glad we won last night and love the positivity, but this team hasn't given anything close to the impression of putting a winning streak like that up.
Quote from: downtown85 on January 31, 2014, 08:11:56 AM
I wonder what our RPI would be if we do that. Perhaps we would still need to win one BET game to get an NCAA bid.
At 13-5 the expected RPI is about 40. Almost definitely in.
Lot of hopes getting up after one game...before yesterday (where we had a 57% chance of winning) 21-10 had a 0.21% chance of happening, since it involve winning all of these in addition to those where we were favored (including two road games):
@SJU 41%
vs. Xavier 50%
vs. Creighton 27%
@ Providence 36%
I'll just cut and paste what I wrote yesterday:
Marquette was given a chance to create separation from bottom of the league and failed on Saturday. They earned a reprieve with Hall blowing it last night against Butler and GTown continues to flounder as none of their players attends class.
For all that is wrong with this team, MU has no excuse not to finish in fourth and perhaps even third if X gets lost a bit. With two against direct competition in PC and a mostly favorable road schedule the possibility of a 9-2 (with losses to CU and Nova) is there.
Going 12-6 in the third toughest conference in country would normally be good. However, with nothing of accomplishment in 2013 the Warriors will still need a trip to Saturday in the Garden to even be in a discussion. A season of lost opportunity.
I see no reason to believe 9-1 is realistic but I'll remain hopeful. What I will say is that each of the next 3 are MUST wins prior to our next 'opportunity' game against Xavier on 2/15. In the meantime, I'll simply continue to watch/attend looking for development, consistency, etc. No reason to get too far ahead of myself.
I will note that we sat outside the bubble in '10-'11 at this exact same juncture and made a run that ultimately culminated in a S16 so it's not impossible. I guess I'm asking Jamil to find his JFB cape.
I predict the following, for a 7-3 finish to the regular season.
@SJU - Win
Butler - Win
@Seton Hall - Loss
Xavier - Win
Creighton - Win
@DePaul - Win
GTown - Win
@Nova - Loss
@Prov - Loss
SJU - Win
I know SJU's record has been poor, but there's a very real chance MU gets worked tomorrow. They've been better of late, and took Creighton to the last possession on the road the other night.
If they take care of business in these next three, then we can talk bubble. They haven't given me any reason to think they can string together multiple wins, though.
Quote from: mu_hilltopper on January 31, 2014, 08:10:05 AM
@SJU - Win
Butler - Win
@Seton Hall - Win
Xavier - Win
Creighton - Big Win
@DePaul - Win
GTown - Win
@Nova - Loss
@Prov - Win
SJU - Win
9-1. Final record .. 13-5
A run like that gets us in the tournament easily but I don't see that happening with the team we have. I see 10-8 and we must get to the BE title game while beating 1 or 2 of the top seeds to make it.
The homer in me wants to agree with you.
But the realist in me thinks we go 7-3 over the final 10...losing at Nova, Creighton at home, and one other game (X at home or @Providence most likely).....finish 19-12 (11-7). 1-1 at the Big East tourney. 20-13. We are one of the last 4 out. Make a little NIT run and mercifully end a forgettable season. Buzz still gets 21 or 22 wins to his record with the NIT run.
I hope I'm wrong.
Quote from: mu_hilltopper on January 31, 2014, 09:04:07 AM
@SJU - bottom feeder, win.
@Seton Hall - Tougher game, but even KenPom says we'll win.
@DePaul - C'mon. It's DePaul .. KenPom winner again.
@Nova - Loss
@Prov - We just beat these guys by 11. We can do that again.
4-1.
While I like the optimism, it is also possible the following occurs:
@SJ--we squeak by/or get squeaked by
@SH: We barely won at home, lose there
@DePaul: It is not the old DePaul, we could go down
@Nova: We get our ass kicked, but we have always played well @Nova, so we squeak it out
@Prov: They do not have an abysmal first half, and play like they did against Creighton and Xavier-we lose.
1-4 or 2-3. 3-2 would be great.
Quote from: Bleuteaux on January 31, 2014, 10:41:05 AM
The homer in me wants to agree with you.
But the realist in me thinks we go 7-3 over the final 10...losing at Nova, Creighton at home, and one other game (X at home or @Providence most likely).....finish 19-12 (11-7). 1-1 at the Big East tourney. 20-13. We are one of the last 4 out. Make a little NIT run and mercifully end a forgettable season. Buzz still gets 21 or 22 wins to his record with the NIT run.
I hope I'm wrong.
This is probably more realistic than going 9-1 in final ten. However a suprise upset in the BET could sneak us in, with prob going to Dayton with win then crushed in the second round
If Buzz is expanding the playing time of younger guys and would lesson the Thomas time, I would move off my original .500 in the BE projection to 10-8.
@SJU - Win
Butler - Win
@Seton Hall - Loss
Xavier - Win
Creighton - Loss
@DePaul - Win
GTown - Win
@Nova - Loss
@Prov - Loss
SJU - Win
I do think MU will make a strong run in he BE tourney, needing to win it to make the tourney. However, loses on last second three by McDermott in the finals. Oh the agony, irony of MU BBall...
If MU goes 12-6 (8-2) rest of the way, they're in even if they lose to two of the three big games (Creighton, Nova, X).
I do think MU will make a strong run in he BE tourney, needing to win it to make the tourney. However, loses on last second three by McDermott in the finals. Oh the agony, irony of MU BBall...
[/quote]
+1000
Quote from: Oldgym on January 31, 2014, 08:51:47 AM
So 4-1 on the road the rest of the way. Not sure I'm ready to drink that tasty Kool-Aid.
Lloyd, doable?
Let's see.
12-9 w 10 left to play. 21-10? Doable.
Quote from: robmufan on January 31, 2014, 09:24:16 AM
Just going to play devil's advocate ;)
Do we make the tournament if we go 12-6? 11-7?
No.
Quote from: MerrittsMustache on January 31, 2014, 08:30:13 AM
You're probably right. 13-5 could put MU anywhere from 3 to 6. Oddly, they might be better off at 6 and getting a shot at NCAA-bound Xavier as opposed to being the 3 and playing 6-seeded NIT-bound Seton Hall.
Numbers don't work that way.
!3-5 cannot finish 6th in the conference. Period.
Quote from: wardle2wade on January 31, 2014, 12:06:21 PM
If MU goes 12-6 (8-2) rest of the way, they're in even if they lose to two of the three big games (Creighton, Nova, X).
This ain't the old Big East. That would easily get you in in that conference - probably not in the new BE. Especially when you may only have 1 or 2 wins the entire season over tournament teams (and probably not over ANY top 5 seeds.
Quote from: brandx on January 31, 2014, 12:52:39 PM
This ain't the old Big East. That would easily get you in in that conference - probably not in the new BE. Especially when you may only have 1 or 2 wins the entire season over tournament teams (and probably not over ANY top 5 seeds.
If we go 12-6 we will have more than 1 or 2 wins over tourney teams. That will mean two wins over Providence (bubble team), George Washington (in right now), Creighton (in), and Xavier (in). That is five wins. And that is before the BET where we could conceivably rack up more.
Quote from: MarquetteDano on January 31, 2014, 01:11:51 PM
If we go 12-6 we will have more than 1 or 2 wins over tourney teams. That will mean two wins over Providence (bubble team), George Washington (in right now), Creighton (in), and Xavier (in). That is five wins. And that is before the BET where we could conceivably rack up more.
I don't expect Providence to get in. They had a ice little run, but they were all home games. The only road game - they barely eked out in OT over st. Johns.
What we have going for us is that there are a lot of bubble teams. And I don't think Buzz will use the same substitution pattern against the better teams in the conference. We saw last night in the 2nd half, Jake and Derrick were on the floor almost the entire final 15 minutes. Derrick was even on the floor with 1:30 to go when they had to foul.
Quote from: brandx on January 31, 2014, 12:52:39 PM
This ain't the old Big East. That would easily get you in in that conference - probably not in the new BE. Especially when you may only have 1 or 2 wins the entire season over tournament teams (and probably not over ANY top 5 seeds.
When I said the two losses came from Creighton, Nova, or X, that means we would get at least one win over X, Creighton, or Nova. Obviously Nova/Creighton are top 3 seeds, and I believe X won't be worse than a top 5 seed.
I don't think people truly realize how weak the bubble teams are in today's times.. with 68 teams, it's not nearly as tough as it used to be. According to BracketMatrix (comprehensive of lots of bracketologists), the "First Four Out" are St Marys, Richmond (14-7), LSU, and Arkansas... "Next Four Out" is Louisiana Tech, BYU (14-9), Boise State, and Mississippi. Check their resumes and they aren't stellar.
Also, the Big East is rated better than every one of those bubble team's conferences... we have more opportunity for resume-improving wins regardless of whether or not we are in the old Big East.
Under the pretense of MU 12-6 in conference (8-2 rest of way), MU is very likely in. I hope we can pull it off.
Quote from: brandx on January 31, 2014, 01:26:18 PM
I don't expect Providence to get in. They had a ice little run, but they were all home games. The only road game - they barely eked out in OT over st. Johns.
What we have going for us is that there are a lot of bubble teams. And I don't think Buzz will use the same substitution pattern against the better teams in the conference. We saw last night in the 2nd half, Jake and Derrick were on the floor almost the entire final 15 minutes. Derrick was even on the floor with 1:30 to go when they had to foul.
Staying out of the who should play argument. I am just saying that if we go 12-6 our resume will look pretty good. I still think we would need to win at least one BET game as well. Maybe two.
The problem is I don't think we will go 12-6. I think 11-7 is more likely. With that we MUST get to the BET championship game with a neutral court win over Creighton or Nova preferably.
Quote from: MarquetteDano on January 31, 2014, 01:30:46 PM
Staying out of the who should play argument. I am just saying that if we go 12-6 our resume will look pretty good. I still think we would need to win at least one BET game as well. Maybe two.
The problem is I don't think we will go 12-6. I think 11-7 is more likely. With that we MUST get to the BET championship game with a neutral court win over Creighton or Nova preferably.
With 11-7, we have to win the BET!! If you look at Lunardi's brackets, Marquette is not even in the
top 83 teams right now. That's a lot of ground to make up. We absolutely must beat G'Town to have any chance. they are ahead of us on the bubble as is ASU who we already lost to.
I'm going with my podcast partners opinion, this team has a propensity for being average and no reason to believe otherwise. With that Creighton, @Nova are "definite" losses, Xavier is a maybe loss, everything else is winnable. That puts us at 7-3.....11-7 in conference. Would have to win at least 2 in the Big East to have a shot at the bubble.
This team is definitely out at 6-5 or less, likely out at 7-3, maybe in at 8-2, probably in at 9-1, definitely in at 10-0
Quote from: mu03eng on January 31, 2014, 01:44:36 PM
I'm going with my podcast partners opinion, this team has a propensity for being average and no reason to believe otherwise. With that Creighton, @Nova are "definite" losses, Xavier is a maybe loss, everything else is winnable. That puts us at 7-3.....11-7 in conference. Would have to win at least 2 in the Big East to have a shot at the bubble.
This team is definitely out at 6-5 or less, likely out at 7-3, maybe in at 8-2, probably in at 9-1, definitely in at 10-0
Good call
Quote from: mu03eng on January 31, 2014, 01:44:36 PM
I'm going with my podcast partners opinion, this team has a propensity for being average and no reason to believe otherwise. With that Creighton, @Nova are "definite" losses, Xavier is a maybe loss, everything else is winnable. That puts us at 7-3.....11-7 in conference. Would have to win at least 2 in the Big East to have a shot at the bubble.
This team is definitely out at 6-5 or less, likely out at 7-3, maybe in at 8-2, probably in at 9-1, definitely in at 10-0
agreed. not sure what anyone saw last night that was any different from how we've played all year (good for one half, bad for another, HUGE offensive lulls, no 3pt shooting...)
i fully expect we will finish .500 in conf, maybe a game above. not sure how we'll get there - could win/lose any of our remaining games by 100 and it wouldnt surprise me...
one thing i am interested to see however, is how we fare again teams the second time around? how do we adjust to creighton, xavier and butler (how the F did we lose to butler???) - and how do SHU, Depaul and Prov play against us at their places. I think that's the mark of a good coach, plus it's tough to beat any team multiple times in one year - which is why, as i stated above, i think any expectation of finishing better than .500 is misguided.
Quote from: JTBMU7 on January 31, 2014, 03:09:08 PM
agreed. not sure what anyone saw last night that was any different from how we've played all year (good for one half, bad for another, HUGE offensive lulls, no 3pt shooting...)
i fully expect we will finish .500 in conf, maybe a game above. not sure how we'll get there - could win/lose any of our remaining games by 100 and it wouldnt surprise me...
one thing i am interested to see however, is how we fare again teams the second time around? how do we adjust to creighton, xavier and butler (how the F did we lose to butler???) - and how do SHU, Depaul and Prov play against us at their places. I think that's the mark of a good coach, plus it's tough to beat any team multiple times in one year - which is why, as i stated above, i think any expectation of finishing better than .500 is misguided.
Good post. I put our chance of getting in at under 20%
8-2 we get in. I'd be willing to bet on that. Charity, case of beer, whatever. Now whether this team can actually go 8-2 is another question......we'll see.
Wow. I'm sober, so here is how I think it will play out.
@SJU - L (they are too quick for us despite their poor coaching and discipline)
Butler - W
@Seton Hall - L
Xavier - W
Creighton - L (going to be real close but we lose at the end)
@DePaul - W ( but just barely)
Gtown - W (again, just barely)
@Nova - L (blowout)
@Prov - L (that is a good team)
STJ - W ( a tight one. We don't match up well with them)
5-5, with maybe a chance at 6-4. 17-14 and 9-9 in the conference.
Quote from: mu_hilltopper on January 31, 2014, 08:10:05 AM
@SJU - Win
Butler - Win
@Seton Hall - Win
Xavier - Win
Creighton - Big Win
@DePaul - Win
GTown - Win
@Nova - Loss
@Prov - Win
SJU - Win
9-1. Final record .. 13-5
St. Johns will not be easy, one win at a time. they are very athletic, much more than MU, better get this one first. Still trying to figure out how they lost to Butler, worst team in the conference. That loss is a big loss. MU can go 9-1 but I think 5-5 is just as attainable, they showed there Jeykll and Hyde offense yesterday, can not go 6 minutes without scoring, Jake
has to hit some open shots, he had great looks in the second half and made none.
Quote from: JTBMU7 on January 31, 2014, 03:09:08 PM
agreed. not sure what anyone saw last night that was any different from how we've played all year (good for one half, bad for another, HUGE offensive lulls, no 3pt shooting...)
i fully expect we will finish .500 in conf, maybe a game above. not sure how we'll get there - could win/lose any of our remaining games by 100 and it wouldnt surprise me...
one thing i am interested to see however, is how we fare again teams the second time around? how do we adjust to creighton, xavier and butler (how the F did we lose to butler???) - and how do SHU, Depaul and Prov play against us at their places. I think that's the mark of a good coach, plus it's tough to beat any team multiple times in one year - which is why, as i stated above, i think any expectation of finishing better than .500 is misguided.
Essentially what I am saying is that I think we are good enough to win every game, and at the same time, inconsistent enough to lose every one as well. My "x-factor" is whether or not Buzz has some tricks up his sleeve when we start repeating opponents. Could improve my projection a bit, but not by much....
Quote from: Oldgym on January 31, 2014, 09:10:29 AM
I have yet to exorcise the memory of traveling down to Allstate on 1/20/2010 in an ice storm only to have an awful DePaul team rip my heart out with 7/10 of a second left. There are no gimmes on the road.
But I'd rather read about going 4-1 on the road than another Derrick thread.
Is that the game Chet Coppock got his lights punched out?
This SJU game is a turning point.
But this season seems to be filled with turning points: Georgetown, Nova, Providence, now SJU.
Quote from: 77ncaachamps on January 31, 2014, 07:59:55 PM
This SJU game is a turning point.
But this season seems to be filled with turning points: Georgetown, Nova, Providence, now SJU.
Beating the last place team in the conference is a turning point?? You got some 'splainin' to do.
Quote from: 4everwarriors on January 31, 2014, 07:45:18 PM
Is that the game Chet Coppock got his lights punched out?
Indeed. Chet "Your dime, your dance floor" Coppick was laid out in the parking lot by a disgruntled (and drunk) MU fan.
Quote from: MUfan12 on January 31, 2014, 10:35:09 AM
I know SJU's record has been poor, but there's a very real chance MU gets worked tomorrow.
Not looking good for 9-1, aina?
Yep. 9-1 is toast. I was (hoping) we'd turned a corner. We have not. We'll be lucky to go 5-5.
Quote from: brandx on January 31, 2014, 08:10:56 PM
Beating the last place team in the conference is a turning point?? You got some 'splainin' to do.
That last place team just pasted us by 19 points.
But the reason why I posted it yesterday was MU has never posted back-to-back conference wins this season.
And it may never looking at the schedule: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/269/marquette-golden-eagles
(Best chance is DePaul and Gtown)
Quote from: mu03eng on January 31, 2014, 01:44:36 PM
I'm going with my podcast partners opinion, this team has a propensity for being average and no reason to believe otherwise. With that Creighton, @Nova are "definite" losses, Xavier is a maybe loss, everything else is winnable. That puts us at 7-3.....11-7 in conference. Would have to win at least 2 in the Big East to have a shot at the bubble.
This team is definitely out at 6-5 or less, likely out at 7-3, maybe in at 8-2, probably in at 9-1, definitely in at 10-0
I think our problem is that as the last two games showed, while everything else might be winnable, everything else is losable as well.
Quote from: The Equalizer on February 01, 2014, 03:02:30 PM
I think our problem is that as the last two games showed, while everything else might be winnable, everything else is losable as well.
This is regrettably true.