In four of Marquette's losses this season, the poor trey shooting Golden Eagles have actually had a higher eFG% than their opponents: Butler, UWG, Goergetown and Villanova. To put this in perspective, this only happened once during a loss all of last season-- the BET loss to Louisville. The difference? Marquette's incredibly high turnover rates, like yesterday's season high 30.2%. Marquette is literally handing over victories with careless play.
To put this year's squad in perspective, four out of the five worst turnover rate games under Buzz Williams have happened this season, with the outlier being that BET game versus Louisville. Marquette is Pomeroy's 15th most offensively efficient offense, yet the turnovers are literally holding this team back from winning the Big East. The only worse MU turnover team in Pomeroy history was that 2004-05 team...you know, the one that lost to Western Michigan in the NIT. When will the coach make the necessary changes?
Edited my typo to UWGB thanks to JayBee...Junior has me so flustered, he even made me throw one into the 10th row. ;D
Doc, great stats. Well done.
Syracuse will give you more fuel for fire. To answer the question; next season.
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on February 24, 2013, 09:23:23 PM
In four of Marquette's losses this season, the poor trey shooting Golden Eagles have actually had a higher eFG% than their opponents: Butler, Louisville, Goergetown and Villanova. To put this in perspective, this only happened once during a loss all of last season-- the BET loss to Louisville. The difference? Marquette's incredibly high turnover rates, like yesterday's season high 30.2%. Marquette is literally handing over victories with careless play.
To put this year's squad in perspective, four out of the five worst turnover rate games under Buzz Williams have happened this season, with the outlier being that BET game versus Louisville. Marquette is Pomeroy's 15th most offensively efficient offense, yet the turnovers are literally holding this team back from winning the Big East. The only worse MU turnover team in Pomeroy history was that 2004-05 team...you know, the one that lost to Western Michigan in the NIT. When will the coach make the necessary changes?
As soon as he gets a legitimate true point guard instead of one who throws passes into the crowd.
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on February 24, 2013, 09:23:23 PM
In four of Marquette's losses this season, the poor trey shooting Golden Eagles have actually had a higher eFG% than their opponents: Butler, Louisville, Goergetown and Villanova. To put this in perspective, this only happened once during a loss all of last season-- the BET loss to Louisville. The difference? Marquette's incredibly high turnover rates, like yesterday's season high 30.2%. Marquette is literally handing over victories with careless play.
To put this year's squad in perspective, four out of the five worst turnover rate games under Buzz Williams have happened this season, with the outlier being that BET game versus Louisville. Marquette is Pomeroy's 15th most offensively efficient offense, yet the turnovers are literally holding this team back from winning the Big East. The only worse MU turnover team in Pomeroy history was that 2004-05 team...you know, the one that lost to Western Michigan in the NIT. When will the coach make the necessary changes?
What are the necessary changes? The biggest issue might be opponent + playing on the road.
Marquette tends to have some interesting (relatively high) correlations for TO's and OR%... on both sides of the ball.
I think you're lying about Louisville.
Butler (neutral court) – agreed.
At Georgetown – They have an excellent defense. Our starters totaled 14 turnovers, every starter w/multiple turnovers. Hoyas also outrebounded us and got to the line more often than us.
At Nova - solid defense; our fouling and inability to get to the line hurt as well. 18 made for Nova vs. 14 attempted for Warriors. Lots of really stupid turnovers, though.
Second worst turnover game this year... North Carolina Central – Their team turns people over a lot; junior guard Jeremy Ingram is a good thief & had 4 at MU; half of MU's 20 turnovers were by the bench including 6 by Jamil. Brutal performance by him. Junior had 6 but he had a decent overall offensive performance.
At Louisville game was puke for MU from a turnover perspective, but they got whipped in most every way. Louisville = excellent defense; 5 Warriors w/multiple turnovers. MU's net turnover margin was only negative 1 for the game.
We also shot less than, but won games against Savannah St (mediocre – for us – 22% turnover rate), Georgetown (even though we had a higher TO rate than them) and UCONN (had same TO rate as them).
Another game we lost despite out shooting the opponent was at UWGB. Turnovers take some of the blame, but we also only got to the line flipping 9 times all game (19 for UWGB)... 55 poss game.
Turnovers drive me crazy, but I think we've been fortunate to have DJ, Acker (as a senior) and a lot of non-PG players who were very efficient. Junior's turnover rates are far too high, but I think this year's team has challenges bigger than turnovers.
Although. Crap... in losses this season.. Cadougan's turnover rate is 32%.. in wins, about 21%.
Quote from: Jay Bee on February 24, 2013, 11:20:42 PM
What are the necessary changes? The biggest issue might be opponent + playing on the road.
I think you're lying about Louisville.
See for yourself about UL in the link below. MU actually oushot UL in both halves of that stinker, a neutral site game.
Changes? Limit the minutes of the point guard who was solely at the helm of the five worst turnover games in Buzz's tenure after he threw another pass 10 rows up. Why does Buzz give Mayo 13 minutes while that PG gets 32 or the other senior gives it up four times in 34? Nine extra possessions between those two to Nova, which was also the turnover margin, yet they get rewarded with the most minutes.
http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/2012/03/08/louisville-84-marquette-71
Larry should look into drug testing during games if everyone is half baked and making turnovers (there's a joke there somewhere about making pastries while stoned).
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on February 25, 2013, 12:18:07 AM
See for yourself about UL in the link below. MU actually oushot UL in both halves of that stinker, a neutral site game.
Changes? Limit the minutes of the point guard who was solely at the helm of the five worst turnover games in Buzz's tenure after he threw another pass 10 rows up. Why does Buzz give Mayo 13 minutes while that PG gets 32 or the other senior gives it up four times in 34? Nine extra possessions between those two to Nova, which was also the turnover margin, yet they get rewarded with the most minutes.
http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/2012/03/08/louisville-84-marquette-71
Dr. Blackheart you are correct. In fact, it is not hard to figure out the problem. Sadly, it is Junior.
The way to defend Junior, and have a good chance of defeating the Warriors, has been figured out.
Press Junior in the back court. Then over play him to his only dribble hand - his right - and put some backside pressure on him. Do not do it always, just when you want to snuff out a Warrior run, or keep yours going.
Junior is not crucial, despite some fine games. The proof is Wisconsin last year, and Pittsburg on the road this year. Wilson did fine. The offense worked fine. There were few turn-overs. The Warriors won.
We all know Coach Williams is keen on loyalty. We have all heard about the road Junior has traveled. We all have seen his heart and character. Unfortunately, we have also seen how he has "trended" against good teams.
It might be time for Coach Williams to look into the mirror and face reality. The Warriors cannot make a deep run with Junior on the stage during show time.
Syracuse guards right now are saying to themselves, "Shade Junior to his right and trap him from the blind side. He often looses his rhythm, which screws-up their offense, plus he often throws the ball away."
Maybe he would be a better as a spark off the bench.
The most frustrating thing Saturday was juniors inability to use his brain.
Hmmm they're going to pressure me, lets run to one side of the court and lob a lazy pass to vander on the other side with about 8 seconds run off.
If you suck at being pressured, take the ball, and sprint to the opposite end. That's the easiest way when you cannot handle the press. Time and time again I kept asking myself, "why don't you run and if you beat the press you have a 3-2 advantage". I don't think it's rocket science.
Same could be said about the behind the arc passes until the shot clock runs down to less than 10 seconds...
Going to pop this into this thread.
(http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee41/roblowe14/Nova.png)
Also, if #mubb only turns the ball over at a normal rate (20%), they win that game. Just to state the obvious
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on February 25, 2013, 12:18:07 AM
....Limit the minutes of the point guard who was solely at the helm of the five worst turnover games in Buzz's tenure after he threw another pass 10 rows up.....
Amen and thanks, Doc.
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on February 24, 2013, 09:23:23 PM
Marquette is literally handing over victories with careless play.
While I would use the word "careless" to describe the turnovers against Georgetown, I would not characterize most of the turnovers against Villanova as careless. It was not that we were careless so much as we were unable to avoid turning the ball over because we are not that good against pressure defense. Against Georgetown I though we threw a lot of unforced lazy passes that were picked off. Against Nova I thought we dribbled ourselves into trouble and got stripped or threw the ball away while trying very hard to avoid turnovers. It is just one word, but it is a big difference, as careless turnovers can be avoided through diligence and attention to detail, while just being beaten by pressure defense is harder to overcome.
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on February 25, 2013, 12:18:07 AM
See for yourself about UL in the link below. MU actually oushot UL in both halves of that stinker, a neutral site game.
Changes? Limit the minutes of the point guard who was solely at the helm of the five worst turnover games in Buzz's tenure after he threw another pass 10 rows up. Why does Buzz give Mayo 13 minutes while that PG gets 32 or the other senior gives it up four times in 34? Nine extra possessions between those two to Nova, which was also the turnover margin, yet they get rewarded with the most minutes.
http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/2012/03/08/louisville-84-marquette-71
That link is a game from last season. You said, "In four of Marquette's losses this season, the poor trey shooting Golden Eagles have actually had a higher eFG% than their opponents: Butler, Louisville,..."
I knew your beef was with Junior and I get it... but, I'm still asking what the necessary change is? "Sit Junior" isn't a change by itself.. what's the other part of it (i.e., who do you have running point during those reduced Cadougan minutes?).. and more importantly, does that get you to a better place, net?
Half baked turnrovers is very much the problem. Lazy passes, one hand passes (which seems to be a trend everywhere), having to rush late in the shot clock, backcourt pressure and passing to guys not able to catch the ball are all in play. I do not think the team is one par with top teams in talent or basketball IQ. We can win against tougher opponents if we are forced to play half court offense. Now watch, SU will force into that style and we find a way to win.
Quote from: Jay Bee on February 24, 2013, 11:20:42 PM
Although. Crap... in losses this season.. Cadougan's turnover rate is 32%.. in wins, about 21%.
This is selective, but to put Junior's 32% loss turnover rate in perspective, that is closer to Niv Berkowitz at 42.8% than DJ or Lil Bit their senior years (16%). Hell, Marcus Jackson was at 27.4 and Joe Chapman was at 23.5 that dreadful 2004-05 season compared to Junior at 26.6 this season.
When Junior gets behind defenders and gets into his dimes game, MU hums...but when the defense prevents him from getting in front of them, the decision making goes south. Our road starts are really bad which digs a deeper hole for Junior. I am not suggesting he should not start, but MU needs more offensive fire to start games and soften the defenses. Jamil and Mayo are two of MU's best offensive weapons and shooters yet their minutes are tamped down in favor of turnover machines. Time for changes in minutes earned, IMO.
Quote from: Jay Bee on February 25, 2013, 09:13:17 AM
That link is a game from last season. You said, "In four of Marquette's losses this season, the poor trey shooting Golden Eagles have actually had a higher eFG% than their opponents: Butler, Louisville,..."
Oops...UWGB is the fourth for this season..UL was the only one from last year.
Quote from: Jay Bee on February 25, 2013, 09:13:17 AM
That link is a game from last season. You said, "In four of Marquette's losses this season, the poor trey shooting Golden Eagles have actually had a higher eFG% than their opponents: Butler, Louisville,..."
I knew your beef was with Junior and I get it... but, I'm still asking what the necessary change is? "Sit Junior" isn't a change by itself.. what's the other part of it (i.e., who do you have running point during those reduced Cadougan minutes?).. and more importantly, does that get you to a better place, net?
Bingo.
I think sitting Junior for another PG who can shoot and doesn't turn the ball over is a great idea!
The only problem is that guy doesn't exist on MU's roster.
Buzz could try Vander in that spot and then take Junior's minutes and spread them to amongst Mayo/Taylor Jr. But, there is an opportunity cost there. Will you be sacrificing too much by going with Blue at PG?
If Buzz can solve the curious case of Junior Cadougan, MU could be sweet 16 bound. If not, it could be an early exit.
From a tactical standpoint, I'd like to see jamil used more in the press break. Usually big guys that can handle the ball are the best weapon. Just clear the guards out and let Jamil dribble it up. However, I know teams are using some zone press, so that isn't necessarily the perfect solution.
Plus, we never seem to make a pressing team PAY when they press us via an easy layup or dunk when we do break the press. There doesn't appear to be any downside to pressing us.
It looked like Syracuse was pressing Georgetown a lot the last 10 minutes of the second half (that's all I watched) so I predict the press is coming tonight.
Quote from: Spaniel with a Short Tail on February 25, 2013, 09:32:19 AM
Plus, we never seem to make a pressing team PAY when they press us via an easy layup or dunk when we do break the press. There doesn't appear to be any downside to pressing us.
Thank you. That's a huge pet peeve of mine. The only way to end a press is to truly crush it and get easy buckets. That should be the objective, not merely getting the ball over halfcourt in time.
Quote from: Spaniel with a Short Tail on February 25, 2013, 09:32:19 AM
Plus, we never seem to make a pressing team PAY when they press us via an easy layup or dunk when we do break the press. There doesn't appear to be any downside to pressing us.
It looked like Syracuse was pressing Georgetown a lot the last 10 minutes of the second half (that's all I watched) so I predict the press is coming tonight.
This. Since we have been getting pressed more, when we do break it we are happy to drive the ball back out 35 feet and initiate the offense. That will be a huge mistake versus Syracuse. Don't let their 2-3 get setup. If they press us we NEED to score in transition.
That also means playing Jamil Wilson more than 19 minutes to the previous poster's point.
Quote from: Guns n Ammo on February 25, 2013, 09:26:28 AM
From a tactical standpoint, I'd like to see jamil used more in the press break. Usually big guys that can handle the ball are the best weapon. Just clear the guards out and let Jamil dribble it up. However, I know teams are using some zone press, so that isn't necessarily the perfect solution.
Davante?
Quote from: jesmu84 on February 25, 2013, 09:45:31 AM
Davante?
Yes and no.
He's strong with the ball in confined space, but I'm not sure I want him dribbling/lumbering up the court. Plus, that's a lot of work, and we already know that Buzz limits his minutes.
Scott Merrit was effective. He was a pretty good ball handler and had a good spin move in the open court. Ironically, that same spin move was bad in the lane because he picked up a lot of charges.
Jamil seems like the best candidate. Next year Juan and Taylor Jr. might be good options as well (need to get stronger and smarter before I would trust them as our main press breakers).
Two types of turnovers bother me. Every once and a while we just throw a pass (and it is not just junior) that was either lazy or the defender was waiting to jump on and the player that goes up to shoot and decides to pass instead of shooting. Jamil going up for a shot and than passing it to the back of the player that had already turned to screen for the rebounder was the turning point in the game against Villanova. Before that Junior went up for a shot and then threw the ball well over Blue's head in the corner. They have to be committed to taking the shot when they start to take it.
I get that Junior as the primary ball handler is going to get the brunt of the criticism, but turnovers in these games are a much larger issue than just one player.
My ultra-simplistic way of looking at it:
In the four games pointed out in the OP, Junior averaged 4.0 TOs per game. Compare that to the 2.4 TOs per game he averaged in the other 22 games this season. So, he averaged 67% more turnovers in the four games than the rest of the year.
The same math on some other notable players:
Vander Blue - +61%
Trent Lockett - +56%
Jamil Wilson - +45%
Vander wouldn't appear to be the answer, his TO's increased at nearly the same percent.
Should we sit all of the above on favor of someone else? What am I missing, other than a willingness to throw Junior under the bus as the cause of all our problems?
Honestly, *if* they made a change at PG, and *if* they decided Wilson wasn't the choice, I would put Mayo at point and keep Blue on the wing where he is having a fine season.
That being said, I am not sure that they would be better off under this scenario either.
Quote from: Guns n Ammo on February 25, 2013, 09:26:28 AM
Bingo.
I think sitting Junior for another PG who can shoot and doesn't turn the ball over is a great idea!
The only problem is that guy doesn't exist on MU's roster.
Buzz could try Vander in that spot and then take Junior's minutes and spread them to amongst Mayo/Taylor Jr. But, there is an opportunity cost there. Will you be sacrificing too much by going with Blue at PG?
If Buzz can solve the curious case of Junior Cadougan, MU could be sweet 16 bound. If not, it could be an early exit.
From a tactical standpoint, I'd like to see jamil used more in the press break. Usually big guys that can handle the ball are the best weapon. Just clear the guards out and let Jamil dribble it up. However, I know teams are using some zone press, so that isn't necessarily the perfect solution.
Is it too late in the season to make wholesale changes?....most likely yes, but I have said this before, give Vander, with more height and quickness, more playing time at point versus the
zone. Couple him with Mayo instead of Lockett, who has the speed and quickness to break that press in the middle with the dribble and who can create a shot on his own. Jamil, perhaps the best passer on the team, if not the BE, OVER the zone is a far better option than Jaun, and the best three point shooter on the team. All three can create their own shots and make a press pay.
The defenses are trying to slog down MU and it is working. How Mayo, who was single handedly taking over and changing the game in the first half, gets only 13 minutes is a head scratcher. Is Mayo or Vander going to make more unforced errors even without any PG playing time up to this point? Lockett's turnover rate is at 22% while Jaun is at 24% to go with Junior's 27%. Yet, they all earn starting roles and two of them got the most minutes in that Nova game.
As I said, MU is simply handing these close games away. They are winning, if not dominating, the other three factors (of the four) most of the time, even in losses. Fix turnovers against the zone and MU wins the BE.
It's a good point that other players are turning the ball over just as much as Junior. However, Junior's sole purpose out there is to take care of the ball. If he's turning the ball over, he offers no other benefit to us, since he's a liability the rest of the time on offense. At least Blue, Mayo, Lockett, etc. offer more offensive firepower and can benefit the team in other ways despite the turnovers.
Quote from: Litehouse on February 25, 2013, 10:57:55 AM
It's a good point that other players are turning the ball over just as much as Junior. However, Junior's sole purpose out there is to take care of the ball. If he's turning the ball over, he offers no other benefit to us, since he's a liability the rest of the time on offense. At least Blue, Mayo, Lockett, etc. offer more offensive firepower and can benefit the team in other ways despite the turnovers.
Are you talking about the liability that leads the team in assists and is tied for 3rd on the team in scoring? That's just ridiculous.
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on February 25, 2013, 10:45:11 AM
Is it too late in the season to make wholesale changes?....most likely yes, but I have said this before, give Vander, with more height and quickness, more playing time at point versus the zone. Couple him with Mayo instead of Lockett, who has the speed and quickness to break that press in the middle with the dribble and who can create a shot on his own. Jamil, perhaps the best passer on the team, if not the BE, OVER the zone is a far better option than Jaun, and the best three point shooter on the team. All three can create their own shots and make a press pay.
The defenses are trying to slog down MU and it is working. How Mayo, who was single handedly taking over and changing the game in the first half, gets only 13 minutes is a head scratcher. Is Mayo or Vander going to make more unforced errors even without any PG playing time up to this point? Lockett's turnover rate is at 22% while Jaun is at 24% to go with Junior's 27%. Yet, they all earn starting roles and two of them got the most minutes in that Nova game.
As I said, MU is simply handing these close games away. They are winning, if not dominating, the other three factors (of the four) most of the time, even in losses. Fix turnovers against the zone and MU wins the BE.
I really WANT to agree with you, but I just don't know if Blue/Mayo is better than Cadougan/Blue.
I don't dislike Todd, but his numbers aren't that great, and moving Vander over might change or limit him. (opportunity cost).
Honestly, if this was game 3 of the year and Junior was looking horrible, I'd say "go for it", but at this point in the season, I think you have to roll with what you've got and try to work to Junior's strengths. Todd has been pretty up and down, and I don't know if he is a significant improvement over Junior.
If turnovers are really the problem, then the cure is D. Wilson. Now, that will create a new set of problems (a guy who can't shoot at all), but it will solve some of the turnover issues.
Quote from: ATL MU Warrior on February 25, 2013, 10:38:51 AM
Should we sit all of the above on favor of someone else? What am I missing, other than a willingness to throw Junior under the bus as the cause of all our problems?
That was/is Dr. Blackheart's main point - he wants to throw Junior under the bus.
I understand the turnover numbers and I watch the games. I understand the frustration. But, I don't think Dr. Blackheart has a better alternative at this point. Put Vander at point guard now? Ugh...
Marquette isn't good enough right now to make a big tourney run without strong contributions from Cadougan. He may very well cough up the ball 6 times in a 60 possession game in the tourney and MU loses... but, if they are going to advance to week 2, I think they probably need him on the court a lot.
MU is a team that has an average turnover rate and a very efficient offense. I don't propose we limit the minutes of their senior, starting point guard because of concerns about the team's offense. Expecting better from him is fine. Being upset about some of the turnover rates on this team is fine. But, sitting Junior on the bench doesn't look like an answer to me.
Quote from: Guns n Ammo on February 25, 2013, 11:12:00 AM
If turnovers are really the problem, then the cure is D. Wilson. Now, that will create a new set of problems (a guy who can't shoot at all), but it will solve some of the turnover issues.
Well.. that would really depend on how Junior influences the other 3 factors (eFG, OR%, FTR). If there is minimal change/drop-off from the other 3 and a significant improvement in TO%, then I'd definitely play DWilson more and sit Junior.
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on February 25, 2013, 10:45:11 AM
As I said, MU is simply handing these close games away. They are winning, if not dominating, the other three factors (of the four) most of the time, even in losses. Fix turnovers against the zone and MU wins the BE.
I think you're looking way too hard at the turnover % and ignoring a lot of other things... plus, making things up.
"They are winning, if not dominating, the other three factors most of the time, even in losses"
Number of losses: 7
Number of times they won the other three factors: 1 (vs. Butler, and OR% was virtually the same)
So... is Marquette
dominating the other three factors most of the time in losses? No, they never are.
Is Marquette
winning re: the other three factors most of the time in losses? No. They just barely did one time out of seven.
Quote from: ATL MU Warrior on February 25, 2013, 11:11:39 AM
Are you talking about the liability that leads the team in assists and is tied for 3rd on the team in scoring? That's just ridiculous.
I agree that when Junior's good he's good. He has had some great games when he had good match-ups, and was in a position to succeed. But there are situations in which he struggles, like full-court pressure, that are easy to recognize. You can tell early if it's one of those nights when he's just throwing the ball away all over the place. Regarding the stats, Junior is also 2nd on the team in mpg and he plays PG. He gets those stats because he has the ball in his hands more than anyone else on the team. If Mayo had more minutes his stats would be better too.
For Villanova though, I wish Buzz would have used a line-up of Junior, Blue, Mayo, Lockett, and J.Wilson more often to break the press.
Junior's turnovers are a problem. It appears that, like bad FT shooting, they are contagious with this team. However, I just don't see how you can bench him and start Vander or DWilson at this point of the season.
Quote from: Jay Bee on February 25, 2013, 11:45:29 AM
That was/is Dr. Blackheart's main point - he wants to throw Junior under the bus.
I understand the turnover numbers and I watch the games. I understand the frustration. But, I don't think Dr. Blackheart has a better alternative at this point. Put Vander at point guard now? Ugh...
Marquette isn't good enough right now to make a big tourney run without strong contributions from Cadougan. He may very well cough up the ball 6 times in a 60 possession game in the tourney and MU loses... but, if they are going to advance to week 2, I think they probably need him on the court a lot.
MU is a team that has an average turnover rate and a very efficient offense. I don't propose we limit the minutes of their senior, starting point guard because of concerns about the team's offense. Expecting better from him is fine. Being upset about some of the turnover rates on this team is fine. But, sitting Junior on the bench doesn't look like an answer to me.
So your solution is to put your head in the sand? I love Junior against a man defense every time when he can get behind his man. Buzz's minutes against a zone are what I am railing about. Those player minutes were not earned. I gave you my line up...I didn't say sit Junior for an entire game, but certainly cut back minutes from the players who are turning it over in bunches. The slow starts and the unforced turnovers out front are holding this team back.
Now I am awaiting your solution to Junior's issues...I love blind senior loyalty too, but when the Coach is railing about the effort after the game of his players, then he should do something about it.
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on February 25, 2013, 12:15:22 PM
So your solution is to put your head in the sand? I love Junior against a man defense every time when he can get behind his man. Buzz's minutes against a zone are what I am railing about. Those player minutes were not earned. I gave you my line up...I didn't say sit Junior for an entire game, but certainly cut back minutes from the players who are turning it over in bunches. The slow starts and the unforced turnovers out front are holding this team back.
Now I am awaiting your solution to Junior's issues...I love blind senior loyalty too, but when the Coach is railing about the effort after the game of his players, then he should do something about it.
You (and others into advanced stats) have a far more sophisticated way of looking at this issue, but it seems to me that if we cut back minutes from the players who are turning it over in bunches, we are cutting back minutes from Junior, Vander, Trent and Jamil. Who's left to play that's going to produce a better chance of winning that that group?
Atl MU Warrior
I agree with you. The problem might be we just do not have any great combinations to play together. The guys you mentioned all be better served if they had better guys on the floor with them. It is not that we are completely lacking talent, it seems that most everyone is equal talent. Not sure if any answer the rest of the way.
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on February 25, 2013, 12:15:22 PM
So your solution is to put your head in the sand? I love Junior against a man defense every time when he can get behind his man. Buzz's minutes against a zone are what I am railing about. Those player minutes were not earned. I gave you my line up...I didn't say sit Junior for an entire game, but certainly cut back minutes from the players who are turning it over in bunches. The slow starts and the unforced turnovers out front are holding this team back.
Now I am awaiting your solution to Junior's issues...I love blind senior loyalty too, but when the Coach is railing about the effort after the game of his players, then he should do something about it.
Solution? You're the one who came up with the problem that you are wanting to make major lineup changes for.
If you really think Marquette is being held back by only Junior Cadougan's turnovers, then we simply disagree. This team has more than its fair share of issues. Cadougan turns the ball over a lot against good defenses. He makes some very upsetting mistakes. But, "limiting" his minutes isn't going to propel this team to greatness. To achieve great things, they need Junior playing well (and a lot of other things/players to improve).
My issues with your posts in this thread are that the blame on turnovers is overdone, some of your facts are wrong and your solution is to put Vander Blue at point guard.
If you want to put Cadougan on the bench when he coughs it up a couple of times in a game - great! Get Todd more time - cool! I'm all for it. But to say this team is being held back and losing games just because of his turnovers is too much.
For me, Jamil continues to be key. I'd like his minutes up and his possession usage up.
Just to throw some additional perspective into the thread
(http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee41/roblowe14/Data.png)
Here are the season averages and then the 10th / 90th percentile for each factor. Base case is the season average. Context on sucking... eFG% below the 10th percentile is @UC, @UL, vs GU (win). OR% below the 10th percentile is @UF, SHU (win), NCC (win). TO% below the 10th percentile is @Nova, NCC (win), @GU. Note that @UL and @UWGB don't fall into the 10th percentile, but they are the next two bad turnover games.
(http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee41/roblowe14/5d7edbba-767a-4b81-a24b-c4dbcb912c4e.jpg)
As it always is, eFG% matters more than anything else. Shoot lights out and you can usually overcome the other factors.
OR% is more important than Turnover Rate, but primarily on the upside. In the context of dragging down the offense, it's almost the same. However, the problem is that Marquette doesn't have many games where they get shut down on the offensive boards. And yet, in three of their conference losses, Marquette has been terrible at protecting the ball.
Finally, I have no idea how to fix the turnover issue.
Quote from: Jay Bee on February 25, 2013, 01:05:59 PM
Solution? You're the one who came up with the problem that you are wanting to make major lineup changes for.
If you really think Marquette is being held back by only Junior Cadougan's turnovers, then we simply disagree. This team has more than its fair share of issues. Cadougan turns the ball over a lot against good defenses. He makes some very upsetting mistakes. But, "limiting" his minutes isn't going to propel this team to greatness. To achieve great things, they need Junior playing well (and a lot of other things/players to improve).
My issues with your posts in this thread are that the blame on turnovers is overdone, some of your facts are wrong and your solution is to put Vander Blue at point guard.
If you want to put Cadougan on the bench when he coughs it up a couple of times in a game - great! Get Todd more time - cool! I'm all for it. But to say this team is being held back and losing games just because of his turnovers is too much.
For me, Jamil continues to be key. I'd like his minutes up and his possession usage up.
I don't think we are really that far away beyond the literal interpretations. My point is certain line-ups against pressure zones are not good match-ups. I am not suggesting "major" changes, but what I am suggesting is to pull back minutes for Junior and Lockett if they continue to perform like they did at Nova. You maintain to ride those two out because they got us here. Fine...I get that...never suggested an outright benching, but rather my rotations against a zone with reduced minutes. I don't mind turnovers if they are creating action (offensive fouls, great defensive steal, a tie up and unable to get a time out)...what I mind are unforced or lazy turnovers (10th row passes, lazy lobs) outfront as clearly laid out in the Synergy stats PT's pointed out.
In 26 games, MU has outright won...
- Twenty games on eFG%, or 77%
- 16 on OReb Rate, or 62%
- 18 on FTR, 69%
- and just 9 games won on turnover rate, or 35%
If you are fine with that, great. But, it is pretty clear where the problem resides, whether you want to bluster on me otherwise is your choice...although some of your posts even support some of this...which is why I asked for your solution.
I'd like to make one other point.
Pomeroy tracks turnover rate for all Big East players who play at least 40% of the minutes in league games. Junior is ranked #93 out of 97 players in the league.
Quote from: Warrior's Path on February 25, 2013, 02:12:31 PM
I'd like to make one other point.
Pomeroy tracks turnover rate for all Big East players who play at least 40% of the minutes in league games. Junior is ranked #93 out of 97 players in the league.
How about D. Wilson?
If we really think turnovers are the problem, maybe D. Wilson is actually the solution.
D Wilson plays 34% of minutes (so he's not on the list), and his turnover rate is 25%. It's only slightly better than Junior's.
Steve Taylor's turnover rate is 14%. He should be the point guard.
Free Steve Taylor!
Quote from: Warrior's Path on February 25, 2013, 02:28:23 PM
D Wilson plays 34% of minutes (so he's not on the list), and his turnover rate is 25%. It's only slightly better than Junior's.
Steve Taylor's turnover rate is 14%. He should be the point guard.
Free Steve Taylor!
The math checks out.
Quote from: Warrior's Path on February 25, 2013, 02:28:23 PM
D Wilson plays 34% of minutes (so he's not on the list), and his turnover rate is 25%. It's only slightly better than Junior's.
Steve Taylor's turnover rate is 14%. He should be the point guard.
Free Steve Taylor!
Wow. That is surprising. I thought D. Wilson would be a lot lower.
It's not just Caboogan's turnovers, it's his slow, high dribble; picking it up when two defenders press him; poor passes and general slow speed game that throws the entire team off tempo. I don't know what happened, but, his game has gotten worse as the season goes on.
How would Ferguson do at point guard?
Quote from: Stretchdeltsig on February 25, 2013, 02:53:12 PM
How would Ferguson do at point guard?
Since he's never played the position (at least not in high school), I'm guessing not great.
What about Jake Thomas??
Great game by Junior. 38 minutes, 1 turnover. Cut the kid some slack. He isn't perfect. But he is starting the rest of the way.
Quote from: tower912 on February 25, 2013, 09:16:27 PM
Great game by Junior. 38 minutes, 1 turnover. Cut the kid some slack. He isn't perfect. But he is starting the rest of the way.
Well said. Thank God some of these folks don't have Buzz' job. Now
that would be a disaster. Cadougan is it then the cupboard is nekkid. And he is fine. Marquette has had some world class PG's. And while I wouldn't put Jr in the top 5 of all time he is a damn sight better than some of the guys we've had. I predict he'll take us to the Sweet Sixteen. Again.
What kills me about Junior is I expected a great game from him tonight. He always seems to rebound from his bad games with excellent ones. After his 2-point performance in the Florida loss, he blasted Wisconsin for 18 points and 6 assists with only 1 turnover. After he turned it over 5 times at Green Bay, he scored 17 and added 6 assists in the win over LSU. Ugly performance against Louisville backed up with two solid games in wins over USF and DePaul. That's just how he is.
I have a feeling the his last game at Marquette will be one that leaves a sour taste in our mouth and probably ends our season. Which sucks because if he would just get one more game after that one, he'd lead us to a win.
Quote from: brewcity77 on February 25, 2013, 09:42:57 PM
What kills me about Junior is I expected a great game from him tonight. He always seems to rebound from his bad games with excellent ones. After his 2-point performance in the Florida loss, he blasted Wisconsin for 18 points and 6 assists with only 1 turnover. After he turned it over 5 times at Green Bay, he scored 17 and added 6 assists in the win over LSU. Ugly performance against Louisville backed up with two solid games in wins over USF and DePaul. That's just how he is.
I have a feeling the his last game at Marquette will be one that leaves a sour taste in our mouth and probably ends our season. Which sucks because if he would just get one more game after that one, he'd lead us to a win.
Brew, I'll bet you a bowl of chili that Jr shines on saturday.
1H turnover rate
Marquette 28%; Syracuse 11%
2H turnover rate
Marquette 12%; Syracuse 27%
Quote from: real chili 83 on February 25, 2013, 09:47:17 PM
Brew, I'll bet you a bowl of chili that Jr shines on saturday.
Not a chance I'd take that bet. I have a feeling Junior will step it up big for his senior day.
I hope we are both right!
ND sucks.
Did I mention, ND sucks?