Marquette jumped from #57 up to #40 in Pomeroy after upsetting Pittsburgh on the road. He had us as a 13-point underdog and gave Pittsburgh a 90.5% chance of winning the game.
Looking at the season, we were forecast as a 9-9 Big East team, but if you went game-by-game, he had us going 8-10. Now we are forecast as an 11-7 Big East team and the game-by-game has us at 13-5.
A few other numbers jumped out...Vander Blue is up to a 101.9 offensive rating. While that may not be superstar level, considering how poorly he started the season and his low ratings the past 2 years, he has really elevated his game. In fact, of all our returning players for next year, only one (Derrick Wilson) has an O-rating below 100. What that says to me is that we have a lot of options this year and a lot of guys that can be game-winners for us, and will have a lot of experienced options next year.
Thanks Brew. I'm assuming Pom has us beating Seton Hall but a dog to Cincy this week. And I personally think 11-7 is VERY achievable. Hall (2), USF (2), Providence, Rutgers, DePaul, St. John's. Sure, maybe we drop 1-2. But we'll also pick up 1-2 'tough' games at least. 12 would not be impossible.
As Mac said, work every day and get 20 overall and 10 BEast and dare the NCAA not to invite you.
Here are his numbers the rest of the way. Of course for entertainment purposes only, by his own admission Vegas is more accurate:
v Seton Hall W 80%
@ Cincinnati L 24%
v Providence W 77%
v South Florida W 86%
@ Louisville L 8%
@ South Florida W 67%
v DePaul W 86%
@ Georgetown L 43%
v Pittsburgh L 35%
@ Seton Hall W 57%
@ Villanova W 56%
v Syracuse L 33%
v Notre Dame W 58%
@ Rutgers W 56%
@ St. John's W 66%
Personal opinion, I'm still thinking 12-6 with 13-5 more likely than 11-7. I also think we have a better chance of beating Louisville on the road than we do Syracuse at home. Of the projected losses, I'd say the most likely win there is Pittsburgh (duh) and of the projected wins, the one that worries me the most is at Rutgers. Decent chance we come into that game with 11-12 wins and our tourney spot secured, while they could be looking for a resume-defining win to push them off the bubble and into the field.
As things stand right now, I'll expect us to beat Pitt and believe we'll have a decent shot on the road at GTown. Just a feeling I suppose. I would not be surprised at all to lose at either the Rac or Villy. And I think we'll give Cincy a heck of a game. Also, it is not totally impossible that we sweep at home. Buzz knows how to beat Syracuse.
One other note. Pom has us 6-3 overall on the road. I'd call that optimistic. If we accomplish that we'll be one helluva team come tourney time.
I definitely put a lot of credence into a future look based on a ratings system that had us losing to Pitt by 13.
Quote from: MU82 on January 13, 2013, 09:04:27 AM
I definitely put a lot of credence into a future look based on a ratings system that had us losing to Pitt by 13.
Pitt this year reminds me of Wisconsin. Pomeroy overrates them because of some big wins against average teams like Lehigh and Detroit (both good teams in bad leagues, but not world-beaters). They also performed above expectations against cupcakes, winning 8/10 of those games by 20+, and 4 of them by 30+. Pounding GT as bad as they did also helped them massively.
Looking at the rest of the Big East, I'd say his numbers are pretty good. I think MU and UConn are a little low because they played too close to cupcakes, but most of the others look fairly accurate.
I hear ya, brew. I know you're a Pomeroy guy, and that's as good a system as any. All of them make me chuckle a little because none of them really mean anything.
The only one that really matters to me is the ESPN poll because being in the Top 25 gets us on the scroll and maybe gets a highlight or 2 on SportsCenter. Otherwise, they are all just conversation pieces mean for fans like us!
After the UConn win, I said that the absolute floor for this team was 9-9 and that there was a decent shot at 12-6, and was called a homer for that. This schedule is extremely fortuitous. We don't play Ville, Cuse or ND twice and we get 2 of those three at home. All of the roadies except Louisville are highly winnable. After winning the last two, I think the floor shifts to 10-8 and, incredibly, the ceiling shifts to 14-4. Pomeroy tends to agree with the high end of that assessment, but he would probably still put the floor at 9-9. I personally agree with Brew, and think we settle in at 12-6, with more upside than downside.
The schedule really sets up in our favor. Honestly, I think 15-3 is possible, maybe even 16-2. I know...I'm crazy. But here's another factor regarding the teams we're competing with at the top:
Louisville: Has to play both Syracuse and Notre Dame twice and have to play UConn, 'Nova, and GT all on the road. I'm guessing 14-4 for them.
Syracuse: Mirrors with Louisville and Georgetown, have to play UConn and us on the road. 15-3 or 14-4.
Notre Dame: Louisville twice, must play Marquette and Syracuse on the road, already has a loss. Guessing 14-4.
Marquette: Georgetown, Louisville, and Cincy away look toughest (and Syracuse at home). Think 14-4 or 15-3 is possible. 12-6 still most likely, though.
Quote from: jsglow on January 13, 2013, 08:58:34 AM
As things stand right now, I'll expect us to beat Pitt and believe we'll have a decent shot on the road at GTown. Just a feeling I suppose. I would not be surprised at all to lose at either the Rac or Villy. And I think we'll give Cincy a heck of a game. Also, it is not totally impossible that we sweep at home. Buzz knows how to beat Syracuse.
One other note. Pom has us 6-3 overall on the road. I'd call that optimistic. If we accomplish that we'll be one helluva team come tourney time.
I could be wrong but I think Buzz has a losing record against Syracuse. I think we have two wins against them and they were both against the same team... Nonetheless, they arent very good this year and if their best scorer is out for the season, they will start to rack up losses.
Quote from: honkytonk on January 13, 2013, 11:00:30 AM
I could be wrong but I think Buzz has a losing record against Syracuse. I think we have two wins against them and they were both against the same team... Nonetheless, they arent very good this year and if their best scorer is out for the season, they will start to rack up losses.
Exactly right, we didn't beat Syracuse until the first Sweet 16 year under Buzz. But I disagree that they aren't very good. No Southerland is a big loss, but CJ Fair has been very good and they have the depth to overcome not having him. Really depends on how long he's out, because I figure Boeheim will find a way to get him eligible again. Their next 6 could all be tough games. MCW will have to step up big time, though he has the ability. I don't think there's a more talented guy in the Big East than him.
Too early to say, we have a great start, but to say we have a legit shot at 13-5 is maybe jumping the gun....I say 10-8
Quote from: GoldenZebra on January 13, 2013, 12:09:35 PM
Too early to say, we have a great start, but to say we have a legit shot at 13-5 is maybe jumping the gun....I say 10-8
Name the eight losses.
Quote from: GoldenZebra on January 13, 2013, 12:09:35 PM
Too early to say, we have a great start, but to say we have a legit shot at 13-5 is maybe jumping the gun....I say 10-8
I think the UWGB loss has really tempered everyone's expectations. And, well, it should have. This team does not have the absolute go to guy it has in the past. But, it does have several guys who can get to the tin, and get to the line. Three point shooting is not a strength, but several guys (Mayo, JWilson, Lockett, Vander, Juan and Taylor), while not great shooters, can all hit the three. This is not necessarily a bad problem to have, as our final two losses last year to Louisville and Florida were because Jae and DJO went a combined 22-61, including 5 of 25 from three point land. Having to rely on two great college players is never a bad thing, but having a very even attack can have its benefits.
I am thinking a 12-6 record is the realistic ceiling and 10-8 is the absolute floor. With that said, I would not be shocked to see 13-5 or better if the team continues to gel. I am bullish on Jamil becoming a more aggressive offensive piece moving forward, and I only see an upward arrow for Mr. Mayo.
I mean just look at this schedule. While MU could certainly lose 1 or 2 of the games I have noted as a W below, I also see it fairly likely that MU will get at least one win over the cream of the crop of the BigEast this season (the four losses below).
v Seton Hall W
@ Cincinnati L
v Providence W
v South Florida W
@ Louisville L
@ South Florida W
v DePaul W
@ Georgetown L
v Pittsburgh W
@ Seton Hall W
@ Villanova W
v Syracuse L
v Notre Dame W
@ Rutgers W
@ St. John's W
In any event, MU has put themselves in a great position. If things do not click, or worse regress, and finish Big East play 8-7, they are 20-10 with a likely top 6 finish in the Big East with an 11-7 conference record. Very comforting to see after prospects for the tournament looked rather grim just a few weeks ago.
We could easily be 0-3 right now, so we should not get to excited. However, I think I will be depressed if we lose to Seton Hall this week. Assuming we beat Seton hall, I think we have a very good chance at Cincy.
Quote from: bilsu on January 13, 2013, 03:06:15 PM
We could easily be 0-3 right now, so we should not get to excited. However, I think I will be depressed if we lose to Seton Hall this week. Assuming we beat Seton hall, I think we have a very good chance at Cincy.
One thing I do like, for the most part we looked like the better team in these three games. We had UConn pretty well in hand until it all went haywire the last 5 minutes. Against Georgetown, we led pretty much the entire way. Same thing with Pitt, where I never really felt they had much of a chance until that 3 went in. They stayed close, but it seemed we were up 2 possessions most of the second half.
These games were all close, and you're right, any of them could have gone the other way, but I do feel in all three cases, the better team won. As long as we continue to mainly play from ahead, I feel things set up very well for us. Seton Hall will be a good test. They have a strong front line and shoot the three well.
Most importantly, since we saw how much the RPI was again correlated so strongly last year, MU made a giant leap in the RPI yesterday. The RPI was projecting a 9-9 conference record and a finish of 54 which is not great...a double digit seed. Now projecting to finish at 30 with an 11-7 record.
The C7 really need to get their crap together. Only one team above 60 in the projected RPI final right now...that's us. G'Town projects at 64. The other C7 schools...just ugly.
Seton Hall 81
Nova at 83
St. John's 108
Providence 110
Depaul 133
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on January 13, 2013, 07:08:03 PM
Most importantly, since we saw how much the RPI was again correlated so strongly last year, MU made a giant leap in the RPI yesterday. The RPI was projecting a 9-9 conference record and a finish of 54 which is not great...a double digit seed. Now projecting to finish at 30 with an 11-7 record.
The C7 really need to get their crap together. Only one team above 60 in the projected RPI final right now...that's us. G'Town projects at 64. The other C7 schools...just ugly.
Seton Hall 81
Nova at 83
St. John's 108
Providence 110
Depaul 133
One year won't determine anything one way or the other. Villanova is still seen as a positive program thanks to all Wright's success. I think Lavin at St. John's is also still well-regarded. Doesn't hurt the league that Butler is projected to 15, Creighton to 14, VCU to 13, and St. Louis to 30. All per RealTimeRPI.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 13, 2013, 07:19:56 PM
One year won't determine anything one way or the other. Villanova is still seen as a positive program thanks to all Wright's success. I think Lavin at St. John's is also still well-regarded. Doesn't hurt the league that Butler is projected to 15, Creighton to 14, VCU to 13, and St. Louis to 30. All per RealTimeRPI.
Generally I agree, though most of the C7 has sucked hind tit the last decade other than us, Nova and G'Town. For this conference to get better, the dregs of the C7 need to cleanse their crap.
Quote from: bilsu on January 13, 2013, 03:06:15 PM
We could easily be 0-3 right now, so we should not get to excited. However, I think I will be depressed if we lose to Seton Hall this week. Assuming we beat Seton hall, I think we have a very good chance at Cincy.
Absolutely correct about the fact that we could be 0-3. But I have to believe that the ability to stand tall this last 10 days has allowed the guys to believe that they can play with anyone. The great news about 3-0 is that it allows a margin for error. Bottom line; we've got 15 conference games left. I think most folks think we can go at least 8-7 and that guarantees the NCAA. After GB we all had our doubts. But there's a long way to go. Let's focus on Wednesday and notch a solid win.
And just one comment on my Syracuse statement. We beat them twice in 2010-11 and gave them all they could handle last year after a terrible first half in their gym. I'm not saying we win; I'm saying the Orange take us seriously.
Quote from: jsglow on January 13, 2013, 08:49:13 PM
Absolutely correct about the fact that we could be 0-3. But I have to believe that the ability to stand tall this last 10 days has allowed the guys to believe that they can play with anyone. The great news about 3-0 is that it allows a margin for error. Bottom line; we've got 15 conference games left. I think most folks think we can go at least 8-7 and that guarantees the NCAA. After GB we all had our doubts. But there's a long way to go. Let's focus on Wednesday and notch a solid win.
And just one comment on my Syracuse statement. We beat them twice in 2010-11 and gave them all they could handle last year after a terrible first half in their gym. I'm not saying we win; I'm saying the Orange take us seriously.
What a typical Buzz Williams team. You can play around a lot with the record. We easily could have been 11-1 entering conference play, and then easily gone 0-3 in conference, leaving us 11-4 with no conference wins. Looks like a typical year where almost all the games will be close with MU winning more than its share of them (Character!) and MUScoopers going nuts adding up all the close losses we could have won and all the close wins we could have lost before we get a win (maybe two) in the NCAA.
how many more huge wins does MU need to have to catch Pomeroy #15 Wisconsin?
Prognostications go down the drain when there is a key injury (for them and/or us).
Knock on wood
Quote from: LittleMurs on January 13, 2013, 09:22:47 PM
What a typical Buzz Williams team. You can play around a lot with the record. We easily could have been 11-1 entering conference play, and then easily gone 0-3 in conference, leaving us 11-4 with no conference wins. Looks like a typical year where almost all the games will be close with MU winning more than its share of them (Character!) and MUScoopers going nuts adding up all the close losses we could have won and all the close wins we could have lost before we get a win (maybe two) in the NCAA.
Hopefully we'll be able to comfortably beat the weak BEast teams and play close with the good ones. We'll also likely have one of those final 8 minute collapses along the lines of Louisville 2 years ago and GT on the road last year.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 13, 2013, 05:54:24 AM
Marquette jumped from #57 up to #40 in Pomeroy after upsetting Pittsburgh on the road. He had us as a 13-point underdog and gave Pittsburgh a 90.5% chance of winning the game.
Looking at the season, we were forecast as a 9-9 Big East team, but if you went game-by-game, he had us going 8-10. Now we are forecast as an 11-7 Big East team and the game-by-game has us at 13-5.
A few other numbers jumped out...Vander Blue is up to a 101.9 offensive rating. While that may not be superstar level, considering how poorly he started the season and his low ratings the past 2 years, he has really elevated his game. In fact, of all our returning players for next year, only one (Derrick Wilson) has an O-rating below 100. What that says to me is that we have a lot of options this year and a lot of guys that can be game-winners for us, and will have a lot of experienced options next year.
Pomeroy is the same guy who was insistent on Wisconsin being the best team in college basketball for the majority of last season, right?
Quote from: The Golden Avalanche on January 14, 2013, 08:57:50 AM
Pomeroy is the same guy who was insistent on Wisconsin being the best team in college basketball for the majority of last season, right?
No. His system favored Wisconsin's style of play though, he has even admitted they are often way too high.
Quote from: The Golden Avalanche on January 14, 2013, 08:57:50 AM
Pomeroy is the same guy who was insistent on Wisconsin being the best team in college basketball for the majority of last season, right?
He wrote an article specifically saying that while his system favored Wisconsin's style of play he didn't think they were as good as his system indicated. Here are some of the highlights...
Quote from: Ken PomeroyQ: Why do you think Wisconsin is #2?
A: I actually don't think this. Please stop assuming that I, Ken Pomeroy, personally believe every team is properly ranked. No system can do this. Even if you somehow had the time to rank all 345 teams, by the time you were done with this exercise, you would find some things that you didn't agree with in the rankings you had just made. For fun, spend some time just try ranking the top 50. Through some miracle, if you're happy with the position of each team when you're done, just let the results of games come in for the next 2-3 days and then see if you're still happy.
There are always going to be some outliers in a system. Wisconsin is perhaps the biggest outlier ever in my system. And it's only going to get worse, because they are going to lose more games and not drop very far because most of the teams they play the rest of the season are very good. But to get back to the question, I don't believe they're the second-best team in the country. Something like #20 sounds about right.
Q: The fact that Wisconsin is #2 invalidates all of your work.
I disagree. Let's say you are very good at performing some task. For the next 345 times you perform this task, I will judge you based on your worst effort. I don't think you would feel like this is a fair way to measure your ability to perform the task. Because it isn't.
If you are going to trash the entire system based on the biggest outlier over the last six years, I suspect you had no desire to use the system in the first place. Either that, or your team is ranked lower than you think it should be.
Q. When are you going to fix this?
First off, I'm not sure it can be fixed...Needless to say, I'd like to fix it. However, fixing Wisconsin can result in messing things up for others.
That doesn't mean improvements aren't possible, but regardless of what I come up with, I can promise you there will still be teams that you feel are mis-rated.
For instance, one of the most respected ratings systems in the nerd world is the LRMC ratings. They had Wisconsin fifth before yesterday's games. Last year, heading into the tournament, they had Belmont fourth, and their system outperforms mine! The Sagarin predictor, also deservedly respected, had Wisconsin second heading into yesterday's games.
Q: Your work is flawed. (Not really a Q, either, I guess, but I get this all the time.)
A: Ugh, I hate it when people say this. Of course it's flawed. The thing is, your knowledge is flawed, too. If you are ignoring potentially useful tools because of a single issue, then your judgment is flawed as well. And I'm guessing you've never tracked the quality of your knowledge so you don't even know how flawed it is. If you're like most people, you think you're knowledge is great because you remember the predictions you made that worked out and you forget about the ones that didn't. It's human nature.
The difference between your flawed knowledge and my flawed system is that I am tracking the results of my system so you can identify all of the flaws for yourself. Ten years from now, you'll be able to look at my site and see that Wisconsin was like 21-13 at the end of the 2012 season and ranked #5. Whereas the time you made some crazy prediction that didn't pan out is quickly forgotten.
Full link: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/on_wisconsin_the_faq
Quote from: dwaderoy2004 on January 13, 2013, 12:53:54 PM
Name the eight losses.
We've got 8 road games, all of which are loseable for us.
Of remaining games, I'd say
Highly likely to win - Seton Hall, Providence, South Florida, DePaul
Could go either way - @ South Florida, Pittsburgh, @ Seton Hall, @ Villanova, Syracuse, Notre Dame, @ Rutgers, @ St Johns
Highly likely to lose - @ Cincinnati, @ Louisville. @ Georgetown
For us to lose 8, we'd go 4-0, against the first group of games, 3-5 vs second group of games and 0-3 against the 3rd group. That is not unreasonable. I'd guess, 4-0, 4-4, 0-3 for an 11-7 season if I had to guess right now. Without playing any worse than we have, we could be 0-3 in Big East right now, just assuming UConn and Pitt each hit one more FT in regulation and Georgetown 2 more FTs.
I was on my phone when I wrote that short message and I think I came off as being a bit of a smartass when I didn't mean to be. I said previously in this thread that I think 10-8 is the floor, so I don't think that is an unreasonable prediction. I was legitimately curious though as to what the poster thought our eight losses would be if that was his prediction.
All road games are tough, but I still think you are being a little loose with saying that @USF, @Hall, @Rutgers, @Nova and @St. Johns are "could go either way" games. We will most likely be favored in all of those games so I think anything less than 3-2 would be a disappointment. Pitt at home is a should win, IMO, and I would actually throw @Cincy in that middle group and move Cuse down to the likely to lose. But you're right, our final record will most likely turn on those 8 or so games. Anything from 2-6 and 6-2 is in the realm of possibilities.
Interesting to debate for sure. That's why they play the games...it will all bear itself out on the court.
MU could be 0-3 right now in conf, but if you watched the games, the better team in all 3 games was clearly MU. In all of those I think we led most of the game and then got caught at some point after some sort of run.
UCONN – had them by 10-12 at a few different points, shabazz and boatright pretty much didn't miss a shot in the last 6 min of reg
G Town – should have been a 5-6 pt win if not for missed FT's and a stupid foul
Pitt – should have been a 5-6 pt win in reg if not for a dumb play by Devante and missed assignment by Wilson/lockett.
My point is, MU was the better team in all 3, and had each game won in reg at some point. It took either a huge play(s) by the other team or a dumb decision by us to make it close. We didn't win any games we should have lost, though you can make an argument for the UCONN game being a lucky fluke. Either way, it puts us in great shape for the rest of the month.
By the way, from Pomeroy's weekend recap
Quote2) #56 Marquette (9%) 74, #7 Pittsburgh 67 (OT) (Saturday) I know there is discussion of how overrated Pitt is in my computer, but I'm not inclined to produce a Wisconsin-style FAQ on the situation. Pitt was favored by 11 in Vegas in this one, so there are still plenty of people that believe in them. Their three Big East losses have been close down the stretch and they punk'd Georgetown in DC. The same Georgetown, though extremely scoring-challenged, that Indiana struggled to put away. Pitt played all but four minutes of this game without the services of starting point guard Tray Woodall after he suffered a concussion early in the first half.
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/weekend_in_review_ole_miss_has_arrived
I think what people are failing to see as well is that this was arguably the toughest three game stretch on our entire schedule, with the only other contender being the Cuse, ND, and either road game on either side of them. Buzz missed the UConn game as well. And they went 3-0!
Also remember that this team should be improving as the year progresses. We had new players, new roles, midseason additions, etc. This team is hopefully on the upswing.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 14, 2013, 10:01:31 AM
He wrote an article specifically saying that while his system favored Wisconsin's style of play he didn't think they were as good as his system indicated. Here are some of the highlights...
Full link: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/on_wisconsin_the_faq
Ah, I see. He made some good points in there for why following his system isn't worth much more than idle chitchat.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 13, 2013, 10:44:57 AM
The schedule really sets up in our favor. Honestly, I think 15-3 is possible, maybe even 16-2. I know...I'm crazy. But here's another factor regarding the teams we're competing with at the top:
Louisville: Has to play both Syracuse and Notre Dame twice and have to play UConn, 'Nova, and GT all on the road. I'm guessing 14-4 for them.
Syracuse: Mirrors with Louisville and Georgetown, have to play UConn and us on the road. 15-3 or 14-4.
Notre Dame: Louisville twice, must play Marquette and Syracuse on the road, already has a loss. Guessing 14-4.
Marquette: Georgetown, Louisville, and Cincy away look toughest (and Syracuse at home). Think 14-4 or 15-3 is possible. 12-6 still most likely, though.
As always, brew, I love, love, love your optimism. And I hope you are right. I would
so "settle" for 12-6!
My nature tends to be a little more skeptical. Maybe it's a defense mechinism ... I'd rather have good surprises than bad surprises.
For example, the super-optimists on the board were waxing poetic of us being "a couple of shots" away from being 11-1 in the non-con, assuming we'd have won the Maui if we had beaten Butler and what-iffing Jake's shot in the UWGB loss. On the other hand, I look at our 3 wins in the Big East and say we are pretty fortunate to not be 0-3 or 1-2.
Suffice it to say, I'm thrilled where we are now. Maybe coulda/shoulda beat UWGB and Butler ... maybe coulda/shoulda lost to UConn, GTown and Pitt.
Bottom line: We're better than I expected us to be so far and, again, I'm hoping brew is right about 12-6.
Quote from: dwaderoy2004 on January 14, 2013, 11:09:44 AM
All road games are tough, but I still think you are being a little loose with saying that @USF, @Hall, @Rutgers, @Nova and @St. Johns are "could go either way" games.
That's fair. I need to see us win another game or two on the road before I am a believer. The destruction at Florida and the loss at UWGB have me too biased against us on the road at the moment. I'm sure my opinion of the team will continue to evolve as more games are played. I know that I am perpetually less optimistic when predicting future MU performances then most on this board. For instance, after watching us squeak past Georgetown at home and then watching Pitt trample them in DC, I figured we'd get beaten easily last Saturday.