Huge Pomeroy Jump -- MU up to #40

[brewcity77]

Marquette jumped from #57 up to #40 in Pomeroy after upsetting Pittsburgh on the road. He had us as a 13-point underdog and gave Pittsburgh a 90.5% chance of winning the game.

Looking at the season, we were forecast as a 9-9 Big East team, but if you went game-by-game, he had us going 8-10. Now we are forecast as an 11-7 Big East team and the game-by-game has us at 13-5.

A few other numbers jumped out...Vander Blue is up to a 101.9 offensive rating. While that may not be superstar level, considering how poorly he started the season and his low ratings the past 2 years, he has really elevated his game. In fact, of all our returning players for next year, only one (Derrick Wilson) has an O-rating below 100. What that says to me is that we have a lot of options this year and a lot of guys that can be game-winners for us, and will have a lot of experienced options next year.

[jsglow]

Thanks Brew.  I'm assuming Pom has us beating Seton Hall but a dog to Cincy this week.  And I personally think 11-7 is VERY achievable.  Hall (2), USF (2), Providence, Rutgers, DePaul, St. John's.  Sure, maybe we drop 1-2.  But we'll also pick up 1-2 'tough' games at least.  12 would not be impossible.

As Mac said, work every day and get 20 overall and 10 BEast and dare the NCAA not to invite you.

[brewcity77]

Here are his numbers the rest of the way. Of course for entertainment purposes only, by his own admission Vegas is more accurate:

v Seton Hall W 80%
@ Cincinnati L 24%
v Providence W 77%
v South Florida W 86%
@ Louisville L 8%
@ South Florida W 67%
v DePaul W 86%
@ Georgetown L 43%
v Pittsburgh L 35%
@ Seton Hall W 57%
@ Villanova W 56%
v Syracuse L 33%
v Notre Dame W 58%
@ Rutgers W 56%
@ St. John's W 66%

Personal opinion, I'm still thinking 12-6 with 13-5 more likely than 11-7. I also think we have a better chance of beating Louisville on the road than we do Syracuse at home. Of the projected losses, I'd say the most likely win there is Pittsburgh (duh) and of the projected wins, the one that worries me the most is at Rutgers. Decent chance we come into that game with 11-12 wins and our tourney spot secured, while they could be looking for a resume-defining win to push them off the bubble and into the field.

[jsglow]

As things stand right now, I'll expect us to beat Pitt and believe we'll have a decent shot on the road at GTown.  Just a feeling I suppose.  I would not be surprised at all to lose at either the Rac or Villy.  And I think we'll give Cincy a heck of a game.  Also, it is not totally impossible that we sweep at home.  Buzz knows how to beat Syracuse.

One other note.  Pom has us 6-3 overall on the road.  I'd call that optimistic.  If we accomplish that we'll be one helluva team come tourney time.

[MU82]

I definitely put a lot of credence into a future look based on a ratings system that had us losing to Pitt by 13.

[brewcity77]

I definitely put a lot of credence into a future look based on a ratings system that had us losing to Pitt by 13.

Pitt this year reminds me of Wisconsin. Pomeroy overrates them because of some big wins against average teams like Lehigh and Detroit (both good teams in bad leagues, but not world-beaters). They also performed above expectations against cupcakes, winning 8/10 of those games by 20+, and 4 of them by 30+. Pounding GT as bad as they did also helped them massively.

Looking at the rest of the Big East, I'd say his numbers are pretty good. I think MU and UConn are a little low because they played too close to cupcakes, but most of the others look fairly accurate.

[MU82]

I hear ya, brew. I know you're a Pomeroy guy, and that's as good a system as any. All of them make me chuckle a little because none of them really mean anything.

The only one that really matters to me is the ESPN poll because being in the Top 25 gets us on the scroll and maybe gets a highlight or 2 on SportsCenter. Otherwise, they are all just conversation pieces mean for fans like us!

[dwaderoy2004]

After the UConn win, I said that the absolute floor for this team was 9-9 and that there was a decent shot at 12-6, and was called a homer for that.  This schedule is extremely fortuitous.  We don't play Ville, Cuse or ND twice and we get 2 of those three at home.  All of the roadies except Louisville are highly winnable.  After winning the last two, I think the floor shifts to 10-8 and, incredibly, the ceiling shifts to 14-4.  Pomeroy tends to agree with the high end of that assessment, but he would probably still put the floor at 9-9.  I personally agree with Brew, and think we settle in at 12-6, with more upside than downside.

[brewcity77]

The schedule really sets up in our favor. Honestly, I think 15-3 is possible, maybe even 16-2. I know...I'm crazy. But here's another factor regarding the teams we're competing with at the top:

Louisville: Has to play both Syracuse and Notre Dame twice and have to play UConn, 'Nova, and GT all on the road. I'm guessing 14-4 for them.
Syracuse: Mirrors with Louisville and Georgetown, have to play UConn and us on the road. 15-3 or 14-4.
Notre Dame: Louisville twice, must play Marquette and Syracuse on the road, already has a loss. Guessing 14-4.
Marquette: Georgetown, Louisville, and Cincy away look toughest (and Syracuse at home). Think 14-4 or 15-3 is possible. 12-6 still most likely, though.

[honkytonk]

As things stand right now, I'll expect us to beat Pitt and believe we'll have a decent shot on the road at GTown.  Just a feeling I suppose.  I would not be surprised at all to lose at either the Rac or Villy.  And I think we'll give Cincy a heck of a game.  Also, it is not totally impossible that we sweep at home.  Buzz knows how to beat Syracuse.

One other note.  Pom has us 6-3 overall on the road.  I'd call that optimistic.  If we accomplish that we'll be one helluva team come tourney time.

I could be wrong but I think Buzz has a losing record against Syracuse. I think we have two wins against them and they were both against the same team...  Nonetheless, they arent very good this year and if their best scorer is out for the season, they will start to rack up losses.

[brewcity77]

I could be wrong but I think Buzz has a losing record against Syracuse. I think we have two wins against them and they were both against the same team...  Nonetheless, they arent very good this year and if their best scorer is out for the season, they will start to rack up losses.

Exactly right, we didn't beat Syracuse until the first Sweet 16 year under Buzz. But I disagree that they aren't very good. No Southerland is a big loss, but CJ Fair has been very good and they have the depth to overcome not having him. Really depends on how long he's out, because I figure Boeheim will find a way to get him eligible again. Their next 6 could all be tough games. MCW will have to step up big time, though he has the ability. I don't think there's a more talented guy in the Big East than him.

[GoldenZebra]

Too early to say, we have a great start, but to say we have a legit shot at 13-5 is maybe jumping the gun....I say 10-8

[dwaderoy2004]

Too early to say, we have a great start, but to say we have a legit shot at 13-5 is maybe jumping the gun....I say 10-8

Name the eight losses.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Too early to say, we have a great start, but to say we have a legit shot at 13-5 is maybe jumping the gun....I say 10-8

I think the UWGB loss has really tempered everyone's expectations. And, well, it should have. This team does not have the absolute go to guy it has in the past. But, it does have several guys who can get to the tin, and get to the line. Three point shooting is not a strength, but several guys (Mayo, JWilson, Lockett, Vander, Juan and Taylor), while not great shooters, can all hit the three. This is not necessarily a bad problem to have, as our final two losses last year to Louisville and Florida were because Jae and DJO went a combined 22-61, including 5 of 25 from three point land. Having to rely on two great college players is never a bad thing, but having a very even attack can have its benefits.

I am thinking a 12-6 record is the realistic ceiling and 10-8 is the absolute floor. With that said, I would not be shocked to see 13-5 or better if the team continues to gel. I am bullish on Jamil becoming a more aggressive offensive piece moving forward, and I only see an upward arrow for Mr. Mayo.

I mean just look at this schedule. While MU could certainly lose 1 or 2 of the games I have noted as a W below, I also see it fairly likely that MU will get at least one win over the cream of the crop of the BigEast this season (the four losses below).

v Seton Hall W
@ Cincinnati L
v Providence W
v South Florida W
@ Louisville L
@ South Florida W
v DePaul W
@ Georgetown L
v Pittsburgh W
@ Seton Hall W
@ Villanova W
v Syracuse L
v Notre Dame W
@ Rutgers W
@ St. John's W

In any event, MU has put themselves in a great position. If things do not click, or worse regress, and finish Big East play 8-7, they are 20-10 with a likely top 6 finish in the Big East with an 11-7 conference record. Very comforting to see after prospects for the tournament looked rather grim just a few weeks ago.

[bilsu]

We could easily be 0-3 right now, so we should not get to excited. However, I think I will be depressed if we lose to Seton Hall this week. Assuming we beat Seton hall, I think we have a very good chance at Cincy.

[brewcity77]

We could easily be 0-3 right now, so we should not get to excited. However, I think I will be depressed if we lose to Seton Hall this week. Assuming we beat Seton hall, I think we have a very good chance at Cincy.

One thing I do like, for the most part we looked like the better team in these three games. We had UConn pretty well in hand until it all went haywire the last 5 minutes. Against Georgetown, we led pretty much the entire way. Same thing with Pitt, where I never really felt they had much of a chance until that 3 went in. They stayed close, but it seemed we were up 2 possessions most of the second half.

These games were all close, and you're right, any of them could have gone the other way, but I do feel in all three cases, the better team won. As long as we continue to mainly play from ahead, I feel things set up very well for us. Seton Hall will be a good test. They have a strong front line and shoot the three well.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Most importantly, since we saw how much the RPI was again correlated so strongly last year, MU made a giant leap in the RPI yesterday.  The RPI was projecting a 9-9 conference record and a finish of 54 which is not great...a double digit seed.  Now projecting to finish at 30 with an 11-7 record.

The C7 really need to get their crap together.  Only one team above 60 in the projected RPI final right now...that's us.  G'Town projects at 64.  The other C7 schools...just ugly.

Seton Hall 81
Nova at 83
St. John's 108
Providence 110
Depaul 133

[brewcity77]

Most importantly, since we saw how much the RPI was again correlated so strongly last year, MU made a giant leap in the RPI yesterday.  The RPI was projecting a 9-9 conference record and a finish of 54 which is not great...a double digit seed.  Now projecting to finish at 30 with an 11-7 record.

The C7 really need to get their crap together.  Only one team above 60 in the projected RPI final right now...that's us.  G'Town projects at 64.  The other C7 schools...just ugly.

Seton Hall 81
Nova at 83
St. John's 108
Providence 110
Depaul 133

One year won't determine anything one way or the other. Villanova is still seen as a positive program thanks to all Wright's success. I think Lavin at St. John's is also still well-regarded. Doesn't hurt the league that Butler is projected to 15, Creighton to 14, VCU to 13, and St. Louis to 30. All per RealTimeRPI.

[ChicosBailBonds]

One year won't determine anything one way or the other. Villanova is still seen as a positive program thanks to all Wright's success. I think Lavin at St. John's is also still well-regarded. Doesn't hurt the league that Butler is projected to 15, Creighton to 14, VCU to 13, and St. Louis to 30. All per RealTimeRPI.

Generally I agree, though most of the C7 has sucked hind tit the last decade other than us, Nova and G'Town.  For this conference to get better, the dregs of the C7 need to cleanse their crap.

[jsglow]

We could easily be 0-3 right now, so we should not get to excited. However, I think I will be depressed if we lose to Seton Hall this week. Assuming we beat Seton hall, I think we have a very good chance at Cincy.

Absolutely correct about the fact that we could be 0-3.  But I have to believe that the ability to stand tall this last 10 days has allowed the guys to believe that they can play with anyone.  The great news about 3-0 is that it allows a margin for error.  Bottom line; we've got 15 conference games left.  I think most folks think we can go at least 8-7 and that guarantees the NCAA.  After GB we all had our doubts.  But there's a long way to go.  Let's focus on Wednesday and notch a solid win.

And just one comment on my Syracuse statement.  We beat them twice in 2010-11 and gave them all they could handle last year after a terrible first half in their gym.  I'm not saying we win; I'm saying the Orange take us seriously.

[Dawson Rental]

Absolutely correct about the fact that we could be 0-3.  But I have to believe that the ability to stand tall this last 10 days has allowed the guys to believe that they can play with anyone.  The great news about 3-0 is that it allows a margin for error.  Bottom line; we've got 15 conference games left.  I think most folks think we can go at least 8-7 and that guarantees the NCAA.  After GB we all had our doubts.  But there's a long way to go.  Let's focus on Wednesday and notch a solid win.

And just one comment on my Syracuse statement.  We beat them twice in 2010-11 and gave them all they could handle last year after a terrible first half in their gym.  I'm not saying we win; I'm saying the Orange take us seriously.

What a typical Buzz Williams team.  You can play around a lot with the record.  We easily could have been 11-1 entering conference play, and then easily gone 0-3 in conference, leaving us 11-4 with no conference wins.  Looks like a typical year where almost all the games will be close with MU winning more than its share of them (Character!) and MUScoopers going nuts adding up all the close losses we could have won and all the close wins we could have lost before we get a win (maybe two) in the NCAA.

[madtownwarrior]

how many more huge wins does MU need to have to catch Pomeroy #15 Wisconsin?

[77ncaachamps]

Prognostications go down the drain when there is a key injury (for them and/or us).

Knock on wood

[jsglow]

What a typical Buzz Williams team.  You can play around a lot with the record.  We easily could have been 11-1 entering conference play, and then easily gone 0-3 in conference, leaving us 11-4 with no conference wins.  Looks like a typical year where almost all the games will be close with MU winning more than its share of them (Character!) and MUScoopers going nuts adding up all the close losses we could have won and all the close wins we could have lost before we get a win (maybe two) in the NCAA.

Hopefully we'll be able to comfortably beat the weak BEast teams and play close with the good ones.  We'll also likely have one of those final 8 minute collapses along the lines of Louisville 2 years ago and GT on the road last year.

[Golden Avalanche]

Marquette jumped from #57 up to #40 in Pomeroy after upsetting Pittsburgh on the road. He had us as a 13-point underdog and gave Pittsburgh a 90.5% chance of winning the game.

Looking at the season, we were forecast as a 9-9 Big East team, but if you went game-by-game, he had us going 8-10. Now we are forecast as an 11-7 Big East team and the game-by-game has us at 13-5.

A few other numbers jumped out...Vander Blue is up to a 101.9 offensive rating. While that may not be superstar level, considering how poorly he started the season and his low ratings the past 2 years, he has really elevated his game. In fact, of all our returning players for next year, only one (Derrick Wilson) has an O-rating below 100. What that says to me is that we have a lot of options this year and a lot of guys that can be game-winners for us, and will have a lot of experienced options next year.

Pomeroy is the same guy who was insistent on Wisconsin being the best team in college basketball for the majority of last season, right?