Gottlieb said we are a 4 unless teams lose. Teams behind us that could potentially pass us on the s curve before tonight we're g town, Baylor, Michigan, indiana, Wisconsin, And Notre Dame. G town lost. Baylor will probably lose to kansas. Wisconsin plays Indiana so one of them will lose. Should probably cheer for Wisconsin but I can't get myself to do that. Hopefully Minnesota upsets Michigan. Pull for South Florida against ND tonight(a given). And cheer for Louisville to make a run so that loss look better. All in all, I think we will stay at a 3 but the committee always seems to screw us so who knows.
Still a 3. Gottlieb is talking out of his rear, like usual. I still think Baylor has to beat KU to get on the 3 line. They've been awful of late, and KSU isn't enough to really prop them up. GT is behind us, either IU or UW will stay behind us, unless Michigan and IU/UW play in the Big Ten final, and Baylor beats Kansas, and someone else jumps up, we stay a 3. It doesn't feel like it after a loss, but us dropping to the 4-line would be a huge drop.
And I know I'm looking for the light at the end of the tunnel but maybe extra rest will be good for this team.
Another thought...would it be better to start Gardner then if crowder gets in foul trouble wilson can come in for crowder.
My guess is MU winds up a 4 seed. And in the West bracket.
Why is that? What team do u think pass them?
Funny that as recently as a week ago. some people thought we were a 2 seed with a chance of being a 1. Now we Are right on the 3/4 line. Which is very respectable, job well done by MU.
But it's the same story every year..people puttin their MU shades on and thinking that the rest of the country (and the selection committee) will view our team like we do. Let's not get carried away- we aren't on the level of UNC/Kentucky/cues/ Kansas etc. so let's stop talking like we are!
If there's one good thing about the last three games, it's that we don't have to listen to any more of this "we can be a 1 seed" or "we will be a 2 seed" stuff. Team has been great, top 15 for sure and a lot to be proud of
You don't think we're better than g town, Norte dame, Michigan, Baylor, Indiana and wiscosnin. I sure do.
Quote from: MUWarrior11 on March 08, 2012, 11:26:24 PM
Funny that as recently as a week ago. some people thought we were a 2 seed with a chance of being a 1. Now we Are right on the 3/4 line. Which is very respectable, job well done by MU.
But it's the same story every year..people puttin their MU shades on and thinking that the rest of the country (and the selection committee) will view our team like we do. Let's not get carried away- we aren't on the level of UNC/Kentucky/cues/ Kansas etc. so let's stop talking like we are!
If there's one good thing about the last three games, it's that we don't have to listen to any more of this "we can be a 1 seed" or "we will be a 2 seed" stuff. Team has been great, top 15 for sure and a lot to be proud of
What is funny is that most (if not all) people were saying that IF we had WON OUT we WOULD BE a 1 seed. Not that we WERE a 1 seed. I don't think too many, if any, people were saying we actually were going to win out. But IF we had we would have been a 1 seed.
Illinois was once thought to be a top 4 seed this year. Where are they now? Things change over the course of a very long season. Team's resumes change. Hindsight is always 20/20.
Hindsight is 20/20, true. I suppose what I meant to say is that it baffled me how many people seemed convinced that we could/would win out. I guess the simplest way to say what I'm trying to say is that we often get carried away in our perception of our own team. Perhaps that's just in the nature of being a fan. We are a susceptible to this tendency.
And, to be fair, I've seen much, much worse in terms of fans being extreme homers. Overall I'd say we are a fairly level headed and realistic bunch here on scoop. Still, I'm happy this 1/2 seed crap is put to rest.
Right now I think we moved from being the #1 three seed to the #4 three seed. That will change tomorrow as the winner of the Indiana/Wisconsin game will move up to the three line. MU will end up being a four seed which is probably about right.
Well I think it is a major deal if we get a 4 seed vs a 3 seed. It's all about avoiding one seeds and with a four we don't.
Quote from: mufansince72 on March 09, 2012, 12:02:03 AM
Right now I think we moved from being the #1 three seed to the #4 three seed. That will change tomorrow as the winner of the Indiana/Wisconsin game will move up to the three line. MU will end up being a four seed which is probably about right.
Does gtown stay behind us?
Gtown stays behind us because we beat them in the last week and they lost today too.
We will be a high 4 (body of work as of late plus weaker BE).
Quote from: Mike Deane on March 09, 2012, 12:14:02 AM
We will be a high 4 (body of work as of late plus weaker BE).
Honestly, high/low 3/4 - I only really hope they get a location "close" to home, so it's easy for MU fans to show up. I'm not even remotely in the area, but always nice to hear a good pro-MU crowd on TV.
Quote from: Mike Deane on March 09, 2012, 12:14:02 AM
We will be a high 4 (body of work as of late plus weaker BE).
Analys think we will be the last 3.
Quote from: Mike Deane on March 09, 2012, 12:14:02 AM
We will be a high 4 (body of work as of late plus weaker BE).
Body of work as of late? We lost a true road game to a top 6 seed and a neutral court game to a top 6 seed. We're entering the tournament having won 12/15 games, with quite a few against tournament teams, a couple of those on the road. Our body of work as of late is very strong. They aren't just going to consider the last 3 games.
We will be a 3 seed. Not even that close to a 4 to be honest. We were the top 3 seed before tonight and much closer to a 2 than a 4. It wasn't even debatable if any of the teams projected behind us could possibly be projected in front of us.
Unless Indiana or UW plays Michigan in the big ten final and Baylor wins the big 12 tournament we will be a 3. Even if that all happens we will still probably be a three. We still have ZERO bad losses. Every other team (minus Baylor) has at least 2 or 3
Quote from: MUWarrior11 on March 09, 2012, 12:00:29 AM
Hindsight is 20/20, true. I suppose what I meant to say is that it baffled me how many people seemed convinced that we could/would win out. I guess the simplest way to say what I'm trying to say is that we often get carried away in our perception of our own team. Perhaps that's just in the nature of being a fan. We are a susceptible to this tendency.
And, to be fair, I've seen much, much worse in terms of fans being extreme homers. Overall I'd say we are a fairly level headed and realistic bunch here on scoop. Still, I'm happy this 1/2 seed crap is put to rest.
The main takeaway is that nobody on here really knows what the hell they're talking about, and they overreact.
Quote from: mufansince72 on March 09, 2012, 12:02:03 AM
Right now I think we moved from being the #1 three seed to the #4 three seed. That will change tomorrow as the winner of the Indiana/Wisconsin game will move up to the three line. MU will end up being a four seed which is probably about right.
UW is far below on the RPI and MU beat them at UW. Both Indiana and Wisconsin have bad losses to Iowa. Just don't see either making a 3, especially UW.
I just published a new S-Curve on CS, and still have Marquette as the top 3-seed. Georgetown lost, so they don't pass us. Neither did an idle Michigan. Indiana beating Penn State does nothing for me. The only teams close to us that had significant wins were Baylor and Louisville, but neither of those wins were enough to pass us by.
Baylor is generally seen as a 3-seed, but they have only 1 top-25 win and are 6-4 in their past 10. Despite the win over KSU, they simply haven't impressed much of late. If they beat Kansas today, they will almost certainly move back up to the 3-line, but they've given no indication all year that they can actually beat a team of that caliber.
Louisville may have beaten us, but that only evens the season series. Their RPI, total losses, and that bad loss to Providence still keep them below us.
It isn't impossible that we drop off the 3-line, but it would take quite a bit. We have to go from 9 to 13. GT can't pass us. Indiana or Wisconsin would have to make the Big 10 final, and for Wisconsin, they might have to win the Big 10. Michigan would also have to make the Big 10 final. Baylor would have to beat Kansas. Louisville or Notre Dame would have to win the Big East. If all of those happen, we drop to a 4. But that's asking a lot.
Lunardi has MU 11th on his newest S-Curve. GTown is 12 and Indiana and Wisconsin are 13 and 14, respectively. I think we're pretty safe as far as the 3 seed goes. Baylor and Michigan are 9 and 10, and Baylor is most likely going to lose today.
Hanging on to three...hope chalk wins rest of the weekend
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 09, 2012, 10:40:57 AMLunardi has MU 11th on his newest S-Curve. GTown is 12 and Indiana and Wisconsin are 13 and 14, respectively. I think we're pretty safe as far as the 3 seed goes. Baylor and Michigan are 9 and 10, and Baylor is most likely going to lose today.
Agreed. I still think we're higher than Lunardi has us (I really think he overrates Baylor), but I think Indiana and Wisconsin need two wins to pass us by, while Florida State probably need to make the ACC final and Louisville would have to win the Big East. Anyone lower won't be passing us.
What happens if Louisville wins the Big East tournament? Most projections only have them one seed below MU right now. Would they pass Marquette and Georgetown by winning the Big East tourney? Wouldn't be surprised at all if that happened.
and yet, MU would still be a three, most likely.
I don't know what Michigan has done that is much better than us. I'm looking at the Warren Nolan Nitty Gritty report, and they are a little better with the top 50 record, but have two 100+ losses in the RPI. I can see the case for Baylor ahead of us as we look pretty similar.
http://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2012/nitty (http://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2012/nitty)
Quote from: cheebs09 on March 09, 2012, 11:07:49 AMI don't know what Michigan has done that is much better than us. I'm looking at the Warren Nolan Nitty Gritty report, and they are a little better with the top 50 record, but have two 100+ losses in the RPI. I can see the case for Baylor ahead of us as we look pretty similar.
http://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2012/nitty (http://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2012/nitty)
Michigan top-25 wins: 5 Michigan State, 7 Ohio State, 11 Indiana, 18 Memphis, 24 Wisconsin
Baylor top-25 wins: (None)
Marquette top-25 wins: 17 Georgetown, 20 Louisville, 24 Wisconsin
Michigan top-100 win total: 12
Baylor top-100 win total: 11
Marquette top-100 win total: 11
Michigan sub-100 losses: 110 Arkansas, 128 Iowa
Baylor sub-100 losses: (None)
Marquette sub-100 losses: (None)
Michigan Road/Neutral record: 8-7
Baylor Road/Neutral record: 12-3
Marquette Road/Neutral record: 10-6
It depends on which metrics you use, but here's my take. Marquette should be at the head of this list because they have some top-25 wins and no bad losses, but Michigan's top-25 quantity coupled with two bad losses puts them right behind us. Baylor's problem is they really haven't beaten anyone really good. St. Mary's and San Diego State are nice wins, but not the kind you want to hang your resume on. The away record is great, but again, who have you beat? Of the three teams, Marquette has the best true road win (Wisconsin) while Michigan has the best overall away win (Memphis).
This thread is the reason I haven't checked scoop in two days.
We're still a solid 3 unless Baylor beats KU and either IU or UM run the table in B10. Compare vs other resumes around us, and we are legit.
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 09, 2012, 11:38:32 AM
Michigan top-25 wins: 5 Michigan State, 7 Ohio State, 11 Indiana, 18 Memphis, 24 Wisconsin
Baylor top-25 wins: (None)
Marquette top-25 wins: 17 Georgetown, 20 Louisville, 24 Wisconsin
Michigan top-100 win total: 12
Baylor top-100 win total: 11
Marquette top-100 win total: 11
Michigan sub-100 losses: 110 Arkansas, 128 Iowa
Baylor sub-100 losses: (None)
Marquette sub-100 losses: (None)
Michigan Road/Neutral record: 8-7
Baylor Road/Neutral record: 12-3
Marquette Road/Neutral record: 10-6
It depends on which metrics you use, but here's my take. Marquette should be at the head of this list because they have some top-25 wins and no bad losses, but Michigan's top-25 quantity coupled with no bad losses puts them right behind us. Baylor's problem is they really haven't beaten anyone really good. St. Mary's and San Diego State are nice wins, but not the kind you want to hang your resume on. The away record is great, but again, who have you beat? Of the three teams, Marquette has the best true road win (Wisconsin) while Michigan has the best overall away win (Memphis).
I'm sure this is a typo, but Michigan is the one with two bad losses.
I worry that the committee puts too much weight on the tournaments. It seems like teams are jumping seed lines with each game (at least the message boards and media make it seem that way at times). If you view it as just another game in the regular season, this loss doesn't look as bad and I doubt 4 teams are jumping us.
Quote from: cheebs09 on March 09, 2012, 11:48:46 AM
I'm sure this is a typo, but Michigan is the one with two bad losses.
I worry that the committee puts too much weight on the tournaments. It seems like teams are jumping seed lines with each game (at least the message boards and media make it seem that way at times). If you view it as just another game in the regular season, this loss doesn't look as bad and I doubt 4 teams are jumping us.
Yup, a typo. Will fix that one, if they had no bad losses, they'd be on the 2-line, and in the mix for a 1-seed.
Quote from: wardle2wade on March 09, 2012, 11:46:39 AM
This thread is the reason I haven't checked scoop in two days.
We're still a solid 3 unless Baylor beats KU and either IU or UM run the table in B10. Compare vs other resumes around us, and we are legit.
you got it buddy.