MUScoop

MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: NersEllenson on November 21, 2011, 11:49:05 AM

Poll
Question: How confident are you that MU will beat UW this year?
Option 1: 100% votes: 13
Option 2: 90% votes: 11
Option 3: 80% votes: 26
Option 4: 70% votes: 32
Option 5: 60% votes: 46
Option 6: 50% votes: 63
Option 7: 40% votes: 37
Option 8: 30% votes: 23
Option 9: 20% votes: 15
Option 10: 10% votes: 10
Title: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: NersEllenson on November 21, 2011, 11:49:05 AM
Go on record now..reveal your vote!

I'm all in....voting 100% confident.  Call me a Kool Aid drinker...but this year the disparity in talent will show up on the floor, and MU will mop up UW at the Kohl.

F*ck Bucky.

Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: Dawson Rental on November 21, 2011, 11:55:15 AM
Quote from: Ners on November 21, 2011, 11:49:05 AM
Go on record now..reveal your vote!

I'm all in....voting 100% confident.  Call me a Kool Aid drinker...but this year the disparity in talent will show up on the floor, and MU will mop up UW at the Kohl.

F*ck Bucky.



Okay, I agree 100% with "F*ck Bucky."  However, Its at the Kohl which is their magic place, they are a very good 3pt shooting team, and they protect the ball well, so I could only go with 30%.  Sorry. :'(

Also, I prefer to be pleasantly surprised.

If Al were here, I suspect he'd be thinking mostly about Taylor and saying stuff like; "Cut off the head and the body dies".
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: Mobot on November 21, 2011, 11:55:46 AM
The Badgers are good and tough to beat at home.  I voted 40%.  If MU can figure out how to get some defensive rebounds, their chance go up.  

I am looking forward to seeing Blue vs. Gasser.  Should be fun.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: brewcity77 on November 21, 2011, 12:02:17 PM
I gave it 30%. Anywhere else I'd like our odds, but that place is a den of evil, and Bo Ryan is the Devil.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: StillAWarrior on November 21, 2011, 12:03:58 PM
Quote from: Ners on November 21, 2011, 11:49:05 AM
Go on record now..reveal your vote!

I'm all in....voting 100% confident.  Call me a Kool Aid drinker...but this year the disparity in talent will show up on the floor, and MU will mop up UW at the Kohl.



As the sole (at least for now) 70% voter, I'm apparently more optimistic than most.  But I think that anyone who is 100% confident of any team's chance to win on the road against a top 15 team is...well, I guess I'll just use your requested term:  a Kool Aid drinker.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: denverMU on November 21, 2011, 12:07:53 PM
100% win.  I picked MU to go undefeated in our OOC schedule. Go Marquette!
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: rocky_warrior on November 21, 2011, 12:48:29 PM
Quote from: StillAWarrior on November 21, 2011, 12:03:58 PM
As the sole (at least for now) 70% voter, I'm apparently more optimistic than most.  But I think that anyone who is 100% confident of any team's chance to win on the road against a top 15 team is...well, I guess I'll just use your requested term:  a Kool Aid drinker.

Agree with you on 70%.  I think people here are too overwhelmed with the mystique of the kohl hole.  I think Marquette has a good chance to beat them this year, regardless of location.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: 77ncaachamps on November 21, 2011, 12:51:43 PM
Jae and DJO ain't having it! They ain't going out like punks! ;)

Injuries will change people's confidence. Let's hope we stay healthy!
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: Henry Sugar on November 21, 2011, 12:55:07 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on November 21, 2011, 01:05:03 PM
I think MU is a team that is better set up for when the games truly matter in March.  However, this is just a horrendous match up for MU.  It's at the Kohl.  Strike 1.  Bucky shoots a ton of threes and shoots them very well, while we are very susceptible to giving up open looks from three.  Strike 2.  Bucky protects the ball extremely well and they have a senior stud press-breaker PG while we thrive on turnovers.  Strike 3.  Highly doubt we win this game, but I think our players will learn a great deal about their weaknesses win or lose, and we will have a much deeper run than Bucky in the NCAA's.  I think their ceiling is sweet 16, while ours is final four (not saying we will get there, just that this team is built for a March run).

The only way I see a win is if Buzz drops a bunch of junk defenses in that Bucky wasn't expecting, or if they shoot their open threes like Ole Miss.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: ErickJD08 on November 21, 2011, 01:14:31 PM
I was just looking at the ranking and about to make this thread... When is the last both teams were this highly ranked?  It looks like both teams will be in the top 15. I M getting pumped for this game. Already making my Schoolyard plans.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: PGsHeroes32 on November 21, 2011, 01:24:49 PM
I went 60% since I usually feel the two teams are really close to a toss up and this year happens to be our best squad yet. It will be tough though. They jack up 3s like crazy and we give up 3s like crazy. Even if they dont rain like they usually do, I fear we may give up some offensive rebounds.

We are far more athletic and much quicker though. If we can get them in foul trouble and run a bit our talent should prevail.

Nervous as hell for that one. If we beat Bucky I just dont see us losing til conference time.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: MUMac on November 21, 2011, 02:33:16 PM
Quote from: ErickJD08 on November 21, 2011, 01:14:31 PM
I was just looking at the ranking and about to make this thread... When is the last both teams were this highly ranked?  It looks like both teams will be in the top 15. I M getting pumped for this game. Already making my Schoolyard plans.

Last time as in last time when they played each other?  I assume that is what you meant.

Closest is '06/07 UW - 11th; MU - 17th (although, the week before we were ranked 8th and then lost to NDSU).

Otherwise there were a few years when both ranked, but at least one above 20.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: Freeport Warrior on November 21, 2011, 03:00:35 PM
I think the biggest key to the game is how it is called by the officials. I love, love, love our ball pressure, but if they call it tight, it could work against us and help the Badgers keep the pace at a crawl. If they let them play a little, I think our horses will suffocate them. It is essential to get out fast -- if we can do that and establish a lead early, they play into our hands. If it's slow and we're behind to start, it is always tough to come back on them, especially there.

I remember when we played them up there with Wade and Co. and they got Wade in foul trouble and it fell apart from there. We had a better team on paper, but their pace took us out of our game. Someone mentioned it here, but this MU squad is a team filled with studs, there is so much depth it's insane, so foul trouble doesn't worry me as much as it used to. From a purely physical standpoint, none of these kids look like freshman, and so far, all 10 of them seem pretty capable. Watching both teams for a few games, I think we have an edge. Regardless, this is going to be a great year. I'm drinking to Kool-Aid.

Blue on Gasser? How about Blue on Taylor.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: Hards Alumni on November 21, 2011, 03:03:30 PM
picked 90%
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: tower912 on November 21, 2011, 03:19:35 PM
<10%.    We beat them on a neutral site, we beat them at home, but we don't beat them at the Kohl.     But, FWIW, I start Blue on Taylor.   He never cheats, he never helps.   When Taylor gives up the ball, he faceguards.   I honestly don't think anybody else on that team can beat our guys off of the dribble.    But we need Jamil/Jamail/Juan to give us quality minutes because I see  2 of the 3 of Otule/Gardner/Crowder getting in foul trouble in the first half.  One interesting thing will be rebounding.   They don't usually crash the offensive boards, choosing to get back to stop transition.    If they stop MU's running game, it will be interesting to see how MU runs their half court sets against a pack-it-in defense.   
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: bilsu on November 21, 2011, 03:47:23 PM
20%
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: GGGG on November 21, 2011, 03:55:19 PM
40%.  If we defend the 3, we will be OK.  I think UW is going to have trouble keeping MU out of the paint...we will score.  I still am worried about our defense.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: denverMU on November 21, 2011, 05:02:18 PM
I don't understand all the pessimism on the MU board?  Yes, the stinking Badgers rarely lose at home but we have beat them there (2007 being the last time).  Let's consider some other stats from this year.  We score 21 more points a game than WI, 5 more assists, 4 more steals, and 17% better on free throws.  I think free throws will make a big difference, MU takes 32/game vs. 10/game for WI and we make 24/game vs. 6/game.  That is +24 points/game at the line.  MU has the speed and height advantage.  MU will win by at least 10 pts.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: Marqus Howard on November 21, 2011, 05:10:44 PM
Quote from: denverMU on November 21, 2011, 05:02:18 PM
I don't understand all the pessimism on the MU board?  Yes, the stinking Badgers rarely lose at home but we have beat them there (2007 being the last time).  Let's consider some other stats from this year.  We score 21 more points a game than WI, 5 more assists, 4 more steals, and 17% better on free throws.  I think free throws will make a big difference, MU takes 32/game vs. 10/game for WI and we make 24/game vs. 6/game.  That is +24 points/game at the line.  MU has the speed and height advantage.  MU will win by at least 10 pts.

None of those stats matter, except perhaps FT percentage. We're scoring 21 more points per game, but Wisconsin is also allowing 26 fewer points per game. I think we have about a 50% chance of winning, but you have to at least acknowledge the strength of their defense.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: Hards Alumni on November 21, 2011, 05:14:00 PM
Quote from: TrueBlueAndGold on November 21, 2011, 05:10:44 PM
None of those stats matter, except perhaps FT percentage. We're scoring 21 more points per game, but Wisconsin is also allowing 26 fewer points per game. I think we have about a 50% chance of winning, but you have to at least acknowledge the strength of their defense.

Like we acknowledged Ole Miss' defense by dropping 96 on them?
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: Spaniel with a Short Tail on November 21, 2011, 05:16:50 PM
60%. Upped 10% after last night. Loved how the team seemed to make the extra pass all the time. 
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: Marqus Howard on November 21, 2011, 05:19:43 PM
Quote from: Hards_Alumni on November 21, 2011, 05:14:00 PM
Like we acknowledged Ole Miss' defense by dropping 96 on them?

I agree that we'll win, but I don't think you can compare Ole Miss to Wisconsin. They're not even close comparisons.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: Hards Alumni on November 21, 2011, 05:21:27 PM
Quote from: TrueBlueAndGold on November 21, 2011, 05:19:43 PM
I agree that we'll win, but I don't think you can compare Ole Miss to Wisconsin. They're not even close comparisons.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/11/mu-goes-over-90-points-for-4th-straight.html
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: Marqus Howard on November 21, 2011, 05:25:23 PM
Quote from: Hards_Alumni on November 21, 2011, 05:21:27 PM
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/11/mu-goes-over-90-points-for-4th-straight.html

Ole Miss is a turnover prone team, and we took advantage of that. Wisconsin doesn't turn it over nearly as much, so what happens if we don't get steals? That's what concerns me.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: tower912 on November 21, 2011, 08:41:55 PM
After the last 10 minutes of the first half of the Norfolk game, seeing what we do against a team that takes away our transition game and doesn't let us penetrate at will, I stick by my assessment of our chances in Madison.   Would love to be proven wrong, but I'm not feeling it. 
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: denverMU on November 21, 2011, 09:25:09 PM
Why? WI does not play a zone, we'll be fine.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: boyonthedock on November 21, 2011, 09:41:47 PM
i now have 0% confidence. maybe in a day or so it will go back up
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: PGsHeroes32 on November 21, 2011, 09:42:31 PM
We are officially screwed at their place
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: MUMac on November 21, 2011, 09:45:48 PM
Quote from: HaywardsHeroes32 on November 21, 2011, 09:42:31 PM
We are officially screwed at their place

Yeah, I heard Buzz was just going to forfeit instead of playing the game.

Man, the pulse of some on this board fluctuates with every possession, not just game.  Come to grips.  Early season losses occur in games like this.  We did not lose.  I expect our performance in Madison will be far different than it was tonight.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: PGsHeroes32 on November 21, 2011, 09:47:16 PM
Quote from: MUMac on November 21, 2011, 09:45:48 PM
Yeah, I heard Buzz was just going to forfeit instead of playing the game.

Man, the pulse of some on this board fluctuates with every possession, not just game.  Come to grips.  Early season losses occur in games like this.  We did not lose.  I expect our performance in Madison will be far different than it was tonight.

But what Norfolk did to us is EXACTLY what wisco does at home every game. Slow it down, make you shoot it and make 3s.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: MUMac on November 21, 2011, 09:49:46 PM
Quote from: HaywardsHeroes32 on November 21, 2011, 09:47:16 PM
But what Norfolk did to us is EXACTLY what wisco does at home every game. Slow it down, make you shoot it and make 3s.

Wisconsin will NEVER play zone under Bo.  NEVER.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: noblewarrior on November 21, 2011, 09:50:05 PM
MU stock took a dive tonight!... Is everybody selling?... I'll stick with the upset at the hole.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: PGsHeroes32 on November 21, 2011, 09:51:14 PM
Quote from: MUMac on November 21, 2011, 09:49:46 PM
Wisconsin will NEVER play zone under Bo.  NEVER.

Don't matter. They still slow the game down and limit transition. Most of our problem came just trying to pass the ball over the freakin half court line.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: MUMac on November 21, 2011, 09:55:42 PM
Quote from: HaywardsHeroes32 on November 21, 2011, 09:51:14 PM
Don't matter. They still slow the game down and limit transition. Most of our problem came just trying to pass the ball over the freakin half court line.

UW will never pressure us.  Their slowing the game down is on the offensive end, not defensive end.  I do not see any similarities between NFSU and UW.  But, be concerned for a few more weeks. 
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: chapman on November 21, 2011, 11:21:52 PM
Quote from: HaywardsHeroes32 on November 21, 2011, 09:51:14 PM
Don't matter. They still slow the game down and limit transition.

That's what I'm most afraid of and hope we use the opportunity to learn from after tonight...this team was forced to play at a speed other than mach 3 and they couldn't do it.  We might face less zone and less pressure, but UW doesn't have to send all 5 guys back to stop transition either, they have the ability to slow you down and get to the offensive glass instead of either or.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: THEultimateWARRIOR on November 22, 2011, 12:07:56 AM
We just have to many offensive weapons for Wisconsin to control, yea they've been holding there opponents to 35 ppg  but with triad of DJO, Crowder, and Blue will over come the tough badger defense and force them to play at a fast paced game. Don't forget how Buzz has been drilling it into there heads to push the ball quick up court. Just a note
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: brewcity77 on November 22, 2011, 04:23:52 AM
This might sound crazy, but I actually feel a bit better the morning after. We survived a game many teams might have lost. We survived a game past Marquette teams definitely would have lost. What better wake-up call is there than that?

We are still the more athletic and talented team. And now we've pulled out a tough win against a solid team (does anyone think NSU is a sub-250 anymore?) away from the Bradley Center. It wasn't pretty, but we handled some adversity. Here's hoping that plays in our favor in Madison.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: tower912 on November 22, 2011, 06:03:34 AM
I'm not angry about the game at all.   Norfolk made a couple of nice adjustments, Buzz hasn't practiced a zone offense very much, we faced adversity and won.   It does nothing to change my take on the Wisconsin game, other than to confirm that we may struggle playing at Wisconsin's pace.   I had <10% to begin with. 
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: MUMac on November 22, 2011, 06:27:31 AM
Quote from: chapman on November 21, 2011, 11:21:52 PM
That's what I'm most afraid of and hope we use the opportunity to learn from after tonight...this team was forced to play at a speed other than mach 3 and they couldn't do it.  We might face less zone and less pressure, but UW doesn't have to send all 5 guys back to stop transition either, they have the ability to slow you down and get to the offensive glass instead of either or.
In the past, Bo did send everyone back.  Really stayed away from the offensive glass, he was more concerned with tempo and transition.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: GGGG on November 22, 2011, 08:12:46 AM
Quote from: brewcity77 on November 22, 2011, 04:23:52 AM
This might sound crazy, but I actually feel a bit better the morning after. We survived a game many teams might have lost. We survived a game past Marquette teams definitely would have lost. What better wake-up call is there than that?


I agree with this completely.  Teachable moment with nothing but practice until next Monday. 
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: nycwarrior on November 22, 2011, 08:13:03 AM
This poll is nose-diving like Herman Kane's numbers with middle aged white women.

I mean that in the least political way possible.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: WarhawkWarrior on November 22, 2011, 02:58:39 PM
20% -- Bo will use every piece of film from last night to take us apart.  We overplay too often on defense, double-teaming is the norm which will result in way to many looks for a good shooting team. 

My only hope is that we can change our tempo throughout the game to throw off their rythem.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: MUMac on November 22, 2011, 03:05:14 PM
Quote from: WarhawkWarrior on November 22, 2011, 02:58:39 PM
20% -- Bo will use every piece of film from last night to take us apart.  We overplay too often on defense, double-teaming is the norm which will result in way to many looks for a good shooting team. 

My only hope is that we can change our tempo throughout the game to throw off their rythem.

I certainly hope Bo focuses on last nights tape and disregards the other body of work, just like our fans.  He will pay for it.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: bamamarquettefan on November 22, 2011, 03:40:58 PM
Wow, a perfect bell curve with 50 percent in the middle
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: bilsu on November 22, 2011, 03:56:41 PM
Marquette is best in transition, which has three problems against UW. First, UW balances the floor on offense, which results in them getting back fairly quickly on defense. That will eliminate a lot of easy fast break points. Second, UW generally is a strong rebounding team, which also limits fast break opportunities. Third and maybe the most important UW rarely turns the ball over and turnovers our our best opportunity for fast breaks. In the end the game will depend on free throw shooting and three point shooting both of which favors UW.  You also have the Blue factor. Blue will receive a lot of razzing from Badger fans. We simply do not know if Blue will try to do to much.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: PGsHeroes32 on November 22, 2011, 05:36:06 PM
Let's hope the "Blue Factor" will be what carries us.

Maybe this will be the game where he shows he can be a legit 3rd option to win us a ballgame and shut many up for good.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: 79Warrior on November 22, 2011, 06:50:02 PM

30%. First true road game in a tough environment. Vander will be hearing it from the crowd.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: Big Papi on November 22, 2011, 07:30:57 PM
Quote from: bilsu on November 22, 2011, 03:56:41 PM
Marquette is best in transition, which has three problems against UW. First, UW balances the floor on offense, which results in them getting back fairly quickly on defense. That will eliminate a lot of easy fast break points. Second, UW generally is a strong rebounding team, which also limits fast break opportunities. Third and maybe the most important UW rarely turns the ball over and turnovers our our best opportunity for fast breaks. In the end the game will depend on free throw shooting and three point shooting both of which favors UW.  You also have the Blue factor. Blue will receive a lot of razzing from Badger fans. We simply do not know if Blue will try to do to much.

I don't know a lot about the badgers this year but it sure looks like this badger team is not like most others.  First of all, they are not very tall this year.  Beggren is 6'10" and then they drop down to 6'6" in Evans and Bruesewitz.  Kaminsky is 6'11" but he is a freshmen and his minutes are severly limited.  Two, are they really a good rebounding team?  It seems like we have a height advantage and way more athleticism.  Not sole indicators of rebounding prowess but it certainly doesn't hurt.  I really think our rebounding problems stem from trying to block shots in the lane instead of just going after the ball.  I don't see the badgers going down low into the lane against us.  Three, free throw shooting is a non-issue.  They don't get to the line much as they rely primarily on their outside shooting and we generally don't foul much. 

The game will depend on UW 3 point shooting and the refs.  IF they make their perimeter shots, we are in trouble but if they miss it plays to our strengths which is apply pressure on the offensive end which leads to how close will the refs call the game.  The badgers are not a deep team and free throw shooting plays to our strength, not theirs.  And finally there is the Taylor factor.  We can run a lot of defenders at Taylor.  DJO, Mayo, DWil and JWil.  All good defenders with different defensive traits.  Taylor sometimes does the same as Blue and tries to force the issue and when he does, he struggles.  I watched him single handedly lose the Penn State game last year in the Big 10 tourny when he decided to chuck up every shot he could.

But in all seriousness, we have a good team and we have a chance to pull one out.
   
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: NersEllenson on November 22, 2011, 07:37:16 PM
Let's look at it another way - which of Wisconsin's starters would you rather have versus MU's starters?? 

Berggen vs Otule?
Bruesewitz vs Crowder?
Ryan Evans vs Vander Blue?
Josh Gasser vs DJO
Jordan Taylor vs Junior Cadougan

In my view, I'd take Crowder, DJO, Blue, Otule over the others and Jordan Taylor over Cadougan.  When it comes to bench play - I'll take our bench over their bench at almost every player numbered 6 through 10.

Still very bullish on MU winning even after last nights close call.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: cheebs09 on November 22, 2011, 07:46:23 PM
I agree with that Ners, but UW functions as a whole rather than individual parts (not calling our guys selfish or anything, but they are a "the sum is greater than the parts" type of team). They are a bad matchup for us, but we are also a bad matchup for them. I watched one of their games and it seemed like they tried to push it a little bit and got sloppy, so maybe we can rope them into trying to run with us. However, I think their focus will be to slow the game down much more than that non-con game.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: MuMark on November 22, 2011, 11:02:18 PM
UW has 3 speeds....slow, slower, and stand still.

http://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjTempo
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: jtrash37 on November 22, 2011, 11:31:24 PM
Quote from: bilsu on November 21, 2011, 03:47:23 PM
20%

+1

Kohl Hole
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: Hoopaloop on November 23, 2011, 09:27:26 AM
30% only because the Kohl is such a home court advantage.  Haven't won there since Crean's last year, 61-58.  It will be a similar score this year.

Wisconsin is Wisconsin.  Deadly good at home and very good everywhere else.  They will play us straight up man to man, but it's not like we will just blow by them like they are standing still.  They will milk the clock, make it a low scoring game which means each possession is critical.  If the game is close at the end, which it likely will be, those possessions can make teams tense up.  This will be a good test and our senior leadership will be key to victory. 
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: MUMac on November 23, 2011, 10:13:09 AM
Quote from: Hoopaloop on November 23, 2011, 09:27:26 AM
30% only because the Kohl is such a home court advantage.  Haven't won there since Crean's last year, 61-58.  It will be a similar score this year.  

Actually, that game was Buzz' first year and was played in Milwaukee.  Buzz is 1-2 vs UW (0-1 at the KC).  Crean's last year we beat UW at Madison 81-76.

So, we have a 1 game losing steak in Madison.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: MuMark on November 23, 2011, 10:51:55 AM
They are absolutely shooting the lights out from 3 so far this year.

right around 50%....... :o
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: Skatastrophy on November 23, 2011, 10:55:07 AM
Quote from: MuMark on November 23, 2011, 10:51:55 AM
They are absolutely shooting the lights out from 3 so far this year.

right around 50%....... :o

It's high-time for them to cool off a bit then.  They aren't Cornell in the NCAA tourney two years ago (http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=300800275), after all :)
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: MUFC9295 on November 23, 2011, 11:19:14 AM
Quote from: MuMark on November 22, 2011, 11:02:18 PM
UW has 3 speeds....slow, slower, and stand still.

http://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjTempo

We seemed to have Fast, very fast and out of breath judging by our last outing.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: WarhawkWarrior on November 23, 2011, 12:16:15 PM
I think Bo invented the "zone" offense.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: MisterJaylenBrownMU on November 23, 2011, 01:32:56 PM
I was reading this ESPN link for the Maymon analysis, but check out the UW blurb (http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/39889/numbers-to-know-vol-pulls-a-blake-griffin (http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/39889/numbers-to-know-vol-pulls-a-blake-griffin)):

"Wisconsin's defense continues to stifle anyone it comes across. The Badgers held UMKC to 20.8 percent from the field in a 77-31 blowout. Through four games, all against D-I opponents, Wisconsin is holding foes to 34.0 ppg and a 26.2 FG pct. That's 10.0 fewer than any other team is allowing thus far. Consider that Wisconsin basketball is allowing more than 10 points fewer per game than Wisconsin football is scoring (44.8).

Though it's far too early to rationally project, it's worth noting that Wisconsin is on pace for the second best scoring defense in D-I history behind only Oklahoma State (32.5 in 1948). Over the past 45 years, only five teams have held opponents below 50.0 ppg over an entire season."
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: marqfan22 on November 23, 2011, 07:54:00 PM
Who cares about UW? As a student who was from hundreds of miles from Milwaukee, I could care less. I would trade a win over Louisville every time.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: Dawson Rental on November 23, 2011, 08:10:12 PM
Quote from: bamamarquettefan on November 22, 2011, 03:40:58 PM
Wow, a perfect bell curve with 50 percent in the middle

Not exactly perfect.  In a great example of unconscious bias, Ners neglected to provide 0% as a choice, although he did provide 100% as a choice.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: Dawson Rental on November 23, 2011, 08:12:25 PM
Quote from: Henry Sugar on November 21, 2011, 12:55:07 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic

I get the reference and the obvious applicability to this poll.  Which presents the question, how did you, a voter aware of this potential source of bias, vote?
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: denverMU on November 23, 2011, 08:30:31 PM
WI has played 4 D-1 teams and held them to 34 ppg, so F**king what?  Those D-1 teams are a collective 5-10 and are 322, 325, 327, and 343 in the country in points scored.  WOW next we will hear they can make lay-ups.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: Henry Sugar on November 23, 2011, 08:47:26 PM
Quote from: LittleMurs on November 23, 2011, 08:12:25 PM
I get the reference and the obvious applicability to this poll.  Which presents the question, how did you, a voter aware of this potential source of bias, vote?

30% (which I voted after Ole Miss and before Norfolk State #2)

Ambiguous calls go to the home team.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: GGGG on November 23, 2011, 11:01:49 PM
Quote from: denverMU on November 23, 2011, 08:30:31 PM
WI has played 4 D-1 teams and held them to 34 ppg, so F**king what?  Those D-1 teams are a collective 5-10 and are 322, 325, 327, and 343 in the country in points scored.  WOW next we will hear they can make lay-ups.

Exactly.  Let's see how they do against North Carolina this week.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: 4everwarriors on November 24, 2011, 06:01:07 AM
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on November 23, 2011, 11:01:49 PM
Exactly.  Let's see how they do against North Carolina this week.


UNC is their trap game.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: brewcity77 on November 24, 2011, 07:07:02 AM
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on November 23, 2011, 11:01:49 PMExactly.  Let's see how they do against North Carolina this week.

I can't see Bucky winning at the Dean Dome, but it would be damn sweet to watch them knock off #1 UNC only to lose to Marquette at home a few days later.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: Stronghold on November 25, 2011, 10:00:01 AM
We play Jacksonville Monday and then have all week to prepare for Madison.  Meanwhile they play @UNC Wednesday and then only get a couple days to prepare for us.  Should be a little advantageous for us.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: brewcity77 on November 25, 2011, 10:04:36 AM
Quote from: Stronghold on November 25, 2011, 10:00:01 AMWe play Jacksonville Monday and then have all week to prepare for Madison.  Meanwhile they play @UNC Wednesday and then only get a couple days to prepare for us.  Should be a little advantageous for us.

Should be. But doesn't that mean we still have to overcome the assumed 10-point deficit we'll start with because it's at the Kohl (instead of the usual 15)?
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: bilsu on November 25, 2011, 10:09:51 AM
Quote from: brewcity77 on November 24, 2011, 07:07:02 AM
I can't see Bucky winning at the Dean Dome, but it would be damn sweet to watch them knock off #1 UNC only to lose to Marquette at home a few days later.
I wonder if Bo is actually coaching his team in early season with an eye on the North Carolina game. His teams have always done well shooting the three point shot, but this year the offense appears to be even more relying on the three.  Last year Buzz's game plan was to take the ball inside to North Carolina and we got crushed. The way UW is playing, I suspect they plan on attacking North Carolina from the three. They cannot beat UNC by going inside and would likely get crushed just like like MU did, but if they can hit their threes they eliminate UNC's inside defensive advantage and could actually beat them. I think they are using their bunny schedule to practice their North Carolina game plan.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: bilsu on November 25, 2011, 10:16:53 AM
Quote from: Stronghold on November 25, 2011, 10:00:01 AM
We play Jacksonville Monday and then have all week to prepare for Madison.  Meanwhile they play @UNC Wednesday and then only get a couple days to prepare for us.  Should be a little advantageous for us.
Wisconsin is a system program, so I do not think it matters so much to them how much time they have to prepare for MU. They are not going to change their defense or change their offense, because they are playing MU. Bo is all about fundamentals. Elimate turnovers, elimate fouls, balance the floor offensively and defensively, get open threes and make free throws. His success in teaching his team this is why it does not matter if he has less athletic players. The only time he needs to change his game plan is if his team gets down several points late in a game.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: brewcity77 on November 25, 2011, 10:23:36 AM
Quote from: bilsu on November 25, 2011, 10:09:51 AM
I wonder if Bo is actually coaching his team in early season with an eye on the North Carolina game. His teams have always done well shooting the three point shot, but this year the offense appears to be even more relying on the three.  Last year Buzz's game plan was to take the ball inside to North Carolina and we got crushed. The way UW is playing, I suspect they plan on attacking North Carolina from the three. They cannot beat UNC by going inside and would likely get crushed just like like MU did, but if they can hit their threes they eliminate UNC's inside defensive advantage and could actually beat them. I think they are using their bunny schedule to practice their North Carolina game plan.

Interesting philosophy, and if true, one that would work well against us, too. I think that without Leuer and Nankivil, UW would struggle to get much going inside against Marquette. Otule is a good defender and great shot-blocker, Crowder has been solid so far this year, and I just can't see Berggren or Brusewicz getting much against us inside. But outside, as we have been in years past, we're vulnerable. Dictate the pace of the game, hit 40% from three, and forgo offensive boards in favor of dropping three to stop our transition game and I imagine that Bucky would like their chances, and frankly, would barely have to change a thing from what they do against UNC.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: JD on November 25, 2011, 03:12:06 PM
For some reason I was thinking Washington.  Whoops, anyway i voted 80%.

Feels good to no longer be banned.  Missed you guys.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: GGGG on November 25, 2011, 03:20:34 PM
Quote from: bilsu on November 25, 2011, 10:16:53 AM
Wisconsin is a system program, so I do not think it matters so much to them how much time they have to prepare for MU. They are not going to change their defense or change their offense, because they are playing MU. Bo is all about fundamentals. Elimate turnovers, elimate fouls, balance the floor offensively and defensively, get open threes and make free throws. His success in teaching his team this is why it does not matter if he has less athletic players. The only time he needs to change his game plan is if his team gets down several points late in a game.


This is exactly right.  He has developed a system that allows him to beat teams that are more athletic than they are.  He did the same thing at UW-Platteville where he almost always won national championships with teams that didn't look quite right during warm-ups.

That being said, one of the trends that UW has undergone in recent years is its dependence on the outside shot.  Part of what the swing calls for is a guard cutting to the block and posting up.  That doesn't happen as much as it used to.  It's what made Alando Tucker such a weapon.

IMO what Buzz needs to do is not extend his defense out so much because all that does is enhance the spacing that Bo wants.  Back off a bit and see what Wisconsin is able to do.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: 4everwarriors on November 25, 2011, 06:36:48 PM
Quote from: JDuquaine on November 25, 2011, 03:12:06 PM
For some reason I was thinking Washington.  Whoops, anyway i voted 80%.

Feels good to no longer be banned.  Missed you guys.


Chicos, is this you?
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: tower912 on November 27, 2011, 08:59:28 AM
After watching Bucky dismantle BYU last night, I would like to, if possible, adjust my vote downward from 10%.    If they shoot the 3 like they did last night, we lose big. 
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: GGGG on November 27, 2011, 09:14:29 AM
Quote from: tower912 on November 27, 2011, 08:59:28 AM
After watching Bucky dismantle BYU last night, I would like to, if possible, adjust my vote downward from 10%.    If they shoot the 3 like they did last night, we lose big. 


+1

MU is better than BYU, but they are longer and "more athletic" than UW and the Badgers carved them up.  Very impressive performance.
Title: Re: Confidence Level MU will beat UW
Post by: Coleman on November 27, 2011, 03:03:03 PM
Got a pretty nice bell curve going
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