2002MUAlum pointed this out in the Jake Thomas thread about our expectations for Juan for the next year. During the last couple of years, freshmen have not seen the floor much. What role to people believe that our freshmen will play next year.
Here is a look at some of the minutes played last year, and where I think they may go to next year...
DJO: 30 --> 35
Jae: 28 --> 32
Blue: 19 --> 25
Junior: 20 --> 28
Otule: 18 --> 25
Ox: 9 --> 15
Jamil: 0 --> 25
Those are some big jumps too. Will Otule and Ox be able to go another seven and six respectively? Not sure. How good will Jamil really be?
Anyway, this leaves 15 mpg left. Does Jamail get all of those? Does Juan earn some as at least some height off the bench? Who will our back up at point be?
Not so sure of the mix of minutes you present. I do suspect that Anderson and Derrick Wilson will get on the court as they are touted as good defenders. Mayo is uncertain as his offense seems to be better at this point...? Todd may be the odd man out in the rotation.. for 2011-2012...?
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on June 03, 2011, 10:37:46 AM
Anyway, this leaves 15 mpg left. Does Jamail get all of those? Does Juan earn some as at least some height off the bench? Who will our back up at point be?
I think Jamail and Juan will get a chance to compete for minutes at the three when Jamil is taking a rest or swinging over to the four. Jamail should have an obvious edge, having been in the system for a year, but I think he'll have to show a little more than he did last year to keep that edge.
Derrick Wilson seems like the most likely backup at the point, with Dave Singleton as Plan B. Nothing against Singleton, but I think we'll be much better off if it doesn't regularly come to that.
I think Buzz is hoping for a better mix of time on the court. He would like to get away from the reliance of the Haywards/Butlers taking 35+ minutes. To me, his perfect mix would be to keep DJO and Jae around the 30 minute level.
As to Jae specifically, though, he needs to learn how to play without making the silly fouls that keep him in foul trouble. That will limit his time. Hayward learned this under Buzz. Hopefully Jae learns this as well.
Blue and Smith got their chances last year, so maybe the new guys will get their chances if they can prove that they can defend.
However, I just don't see many minutes available for them, which is good.
Otule 22
Jae 30
Wilson 25
DJO 30
Junior 30
Blue 25
Gardner 18
Jones 10
(Williams... errr... nope)
Wilson 8
Anderson 2 (Jamil Jones frosh min.)
Mayo (club Trill)
I guess back-up PF is the spot where some minutes could be earned. It's possible that Wilson could play some minutes there. I could also see Blue getting some PG minutes depending upon D. Wilson's abilities to play spot minutes.
Having Reggie and Erik Williams this season would have been some nice depth, and I don't think any frosh would be getting clock. However, those guys have moved on, so there are some minutes (maybe 15) that could be filled by frosh.
The rotations this year will be interesting again. I don't really understand Buzz's mad scientist routine, but I trust that he knows more than I do... so I'll roll with it.
Quote from: Pakuni on June 03, 2011, 11:02:01 AM
I think Jamil and Juan will get a chance to compete for minutes at the three when Jamil is taking a rest or swinging over to the four. Jamil should have an obvious edge, having been in the system for a year, but I think he'll have to show a little more than he did last year to keep that edge.
Derrick Wilson seems like the most likely backup at the point, with Dave Singleton as Plan B. Nothing against Singleton, but I think we'll be much better off if it doesn't regularly come to that.
What? The jamil jamail thing is to complicated for us. Nick names need to be developed to simplify discussion for posters.
"The Mailman" and "Jamilionare", screw Carl Malone it works ;)
Quote from: MUMac on June 03, 2011, 11:06:14 AM
I think Buzz is hoping for a better mix of time on the court. He would like to get away from the reliance of the Haywards/Butlers taking 35+ minutes. To me, his perfect mix would be to keep DJO and Jae around the 30 minute level.
I agree with the fact that he wants to have that philosophy, but I wonder come crunch time if that will actually happen. I have no doubt that he will fiddle around with line ups like he did at the beginning of next year, but he may have to do what he did with big minutes for a select few.
I think Juan is the only freshman that will see significant minutes. Jones will get as many minutes as Erik did.
Both Otule's and Gardner's minutes depend on conditioning. I would expect Gardner's conditioning to improve more than Otule's, because he has more room to improve. At the start I think Singleton plays more than either Mayo or Wilson. He knows MU system and has three years of college basketball under his belt. He could be pushed down by either Mayo or Wilson as the season progresses. The more playing time Juan gets, the more time Blue gets at guard spot, which will push down the playing times of Singleton, Mayo and Wilson.
At the start of the season I will rank the players as follows:
C. Otule, Gardner, Crowder
PF Crowder, Wilson, Anderson
SF Wilson, , Blue, Anderson, Jones
SG DJO, Blue, Singleton, Jones, Mayo
PG Cadougan, Blue, Singleton and Wilson.
The X factor on minutes is all Vander Blue. Blue needs huge improvement on the O end to play. Now
if Cadougan shows more O skills that will help Blue as well. You can not have Otule, Blue and Cadougan
on the court at the sametime unless there skills change. Can not play 2 on 5.
I think Todd Mayo gets the most minutes of the freshman, although with less depth at forward, Juan Anderson will see his share with Jamail Jones.
If Van gets 25 mpg we are in a world of hurt.
Karl Malone not Carl Malone. Karl is a Hall of Famer you think that maybe you may have seen his name in print once before.
Vander is definately going to see an increase in minutes next year. I don't think from 19 mpg to 25 mpg is that much of a stretch. What other options are there? Like it or not, him and Junior are essentially tied as the guards with the second most experience.
And I think he improves quite a bit going into year two.
easy...
Here are my current PT guesses...
Starters
Otule 23
Crowder 30
J. Wilson 25
DJO 32
Cadougan 28
Bench
Blue 24
Gardner 13
Jones 10
D. Wilson 6
Anderson 6
Mayo 2
Singleton 1
Otule and Gardner will get the lion's share at center, with Crowder occasionally sliding over. I'd love to see Otule and Gardner able to manage a few more minutes, but I'm not sure either is ready for that. I could also see scenarios where Jamil Wilson plays some center, at least on the defensive end.
At power forward, Jae will take the bulk of the time, with Jamil Wilson and Anderson filling in some. As in previous years, I expect it to be more of an inside-out position rather than a traditional banging four.
The three will mostly be manned by Wilson, I expect him to log at least 20 mpg there. I think this is also where Jones and Blue will see meaningful minutes. Fill in the rest with Anderson.
Shooting guard is DJO's position. He'll play all of his minutes there, with Blue and Jones giving him time to rest. Mayo gets in for mop-up time, mostly.
Point guard will be Cadougan. I think Blue will log some decent minutes here as well, basically Mr. Everything off the bench, with Derrick Wilson also putting in time here. When we do see Singleton, this is where I expect him, and if he's better than advertised, I think if anything he'll cut into Wilson's minutes at this position.
Quote from: TedBaxter on June 03, 2011, 12:05:00 PM
I think Todd Mayo gets the most minutes of the freshman, although with less depth at forward, Juan Anderson will see his share with Jamail Jones.
Agree. Think Mayo is the most polished offensively of the newcomers, and next year's team could use some scoring punch from all appearances - Outside of DJO and Crowder and maybe Wilson/Gardner - who can be counted on for offense?
Ners, I think Jamail, after a year in the program, will be a better offensive player than Mayo next year.
The one we NEED to contribute is Juan. Getting useful minutes from him and JJones may be the difference between elite 8 and on the bubble. OK, this assumes that Vander makes the typical frosh to sophomore leap that 4 star recruits supposedly typically make. There are 15-20 minutes a game available backing up JWilson and Crowder.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on June 03, 2011, 02:09:24 PM
Ners, I think Jamail, after a year in the program, will be a better offensive player than Mayo next year.
Hopefully - hard to get a handle on these things as we saw so little of Jones last year, and have yet to see Mayo in a college uniform. Having said that, Mayo's stock was really rising this spring, and with that 5th year of High School (Prep School), he could be a little more advanced than a typical freshman. From the limited play I've seen, to me Jamail Jones looks more like a Jimmy Butler type (more passive offensively), and Mayo looks more dynamic as a playmaker/scorer....
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on June 03, 2011, 11:21:48 AM
I agree with the fact that he wants to have that philosophy, but I wonder come crunch time if that will actually happen. I have no doubt that he will fiddle around with line ups like he did at the beginning of next year, but he may have to do what he did with big minutes for a select few.
The thought this comment gave me was Buzz' confidence in Butler and Hayward. He hated to take them off the floor, because they were consistent and the team was better with them on the floor. Jae could have that kind of effect next year. DJO needs more consistency, though, for Buzz to have that comfort.
Interesting discussions in this thread.
Quote from: Ners on June 03, 2011, 03:22:43 PM
Hopefully - hard to get a handle on these things as we saw so little of Jones last year, and have yet to see Mayo in a college uniform. Having said that, Mayo's stock was really rising this spring, and with that 5th year of High School (Prep School), he could be a little more advanced than a typical freshman. From the limited play I've seen, to me Jamail Jones looks more like a Jimmy Butler type (more passive offensively), and Mayo looks more dynamic as a playmaker/scorer....
You giver credit for Mayo for playing a fifth year of high school and ignore the fact that Singleton started two years in college and has a third year as a redshirt. Mayo was only rated an 89. Wilson is rated 90 and recruits ranked that low just do not play as freshmen in the Big East, especially for a team that already has DJO, Cadougan and Blue. Jones was rated 94 or 95 and did not play. Williams was rated high also and did not play. Unless you think that Mayo and Wilson were significantly underrated there simply is no reason to expect them to play as freshmen. Of course you can point to Gardner and say ratings do no matter. However, in Gardner's case he is a center, were MU does not have much depth. The biggest thing for Buzz is whether the player can play defense. Anderson and Wilson have a shot to play because of that. Mayo at this point is just known for shooting. We already have Jones for that and he did not play as a freshmen.
Quote from: tower912 on June 03, 2011, 02:48:31 PM
The one we NEED to contribute is Juan. Getting useful minutes from him and JJones may be the difference between elite 8 and on the bubble.
From a purely pragmatic point of view, the one we really need to contribute is Derrick Wilson. Cadougan isn't going to play 40 mpg and I'm not convinced Blue is the answer at the point.
After addressing the point, we can get 160 minutes from Otule, Gardner, Crowder, DJO, J Wilson, and Blue (average of 27 mpg each)--without the contribution of ANY minutes from Mayo, Anderson, or Jones.
The other question is whether its reasonable to expect that Mayo and Anderson can get significant minutes as frosh when the higher rated E Williams and Jones didn't. Buzz hasn't been known for being generous with minutes to freshman. Blue got minutes as a frosh, but he was higher rated. Gardner got minutes--but he would be analogous to D Wilson this year as a position player at a position with little team depth. Mayo seems to be behind Blue and DJO, Anderson would seem to be behind Wilson & Crowder.
Quote from: We R Final Four on June 03, 2011, 12:26:15 PM
If Van gets 25 mpg we are in a world of hurt.
Are you nuts?
If Vander gets 25 minutes, it is because he earned them and has mitigated the freshman fobiles that he faced last year.
Here's hoping Vander is everything we think he is!!!!
Quote from: Marquette84 on June 03, 2011, 10:37:24 PMAfter addressing the point, we can get 160 minutes from Otule, Gardner, Crowder, DJO, J Wilson, and Blue (average of 27 mpg each)--without the contribution of ANY minutes from Mayo, Anderson, or Jones.
27 mpg from Otule and Gardner seems like a lot. I don't think there's any way we get 40 combined out of them. I mean, that's tripling Gardner's minutes...a very steep hope.
Quote from: brewcity77 on June 03, 2011, 11:13:36 PM
27 mpg from Otule and Gardner seems like a lot. I don't think there's any way we get 40 combined out of them. I mean, that's tripling Gardner's minutes...a very steep hope.
I think you have to look at the end-of-season performance. We were already getting close to that out of them.
Otule and Gardner combined for an average of 33.5 mpg in the six games in the BET and NCAA tournaments. 40 combined doesn't seem unreachable.
Quote from: brewcity77 on June 03, 2011, 11:13:36 PM
27 mpg from Otule and Gardner seems like a lot. I don't think there's any way we get 40 combined out of them. I mean, that's tripling Gardner's minutes...a very steep hope.
Agree. They almost never play at the same time, so 40 minutes would mean one of them was in at all times. Won't happen, sometimes Buzz will play small.
I will go out on a limb and say Todd Mayo is underrated and in my opinion, very underrated. I'm still not sure how many recruiting analysts have actually seen him play if they didn't go to one of the prep school tournaments this year. He played some AAU ball, but again, I'm not sure how much.
Here's a quote from his Germantown (TN) High School coach about what he did at the high school level for that team as a senior and this is why it wouldn't surprise me if he played a combo role at times next year.
"Todd starts the game for us as a shooting guard, but as the game goes forward in the second, third and fourth quarters, the ball naturally goes into his hands because he's so skilled at running a team and handling the basketball," Mealer says. "There just aren't many flaws that he's got right now. As far as on the high school level, his game is just above a lot of people."
The one thing I've seen from him in prep school video is how patient he is with the ball and he kind of has an "old man's game" and I say in respect to how patient he is. Just kind of gauges what the defense is giving and then attacks the weakness. At Notre Dame Prep he would score 27-30 points and if you watched the video, it didn't look like he was getting that many shots because they played so much isolation action and the ball was spread around.
I know there are questions about his defense, but the one thing I see is that he has the athletic ability and strength to succeed or even excel on defense.
Quote from: Lennys Tap on June 04, 2011, 02:59:42 AM
Agree. They almost never play at the same time, so 40 minutes would mean one of them was in at all times. Won't happen, sometimes Buzz will play small.
I don't think I'm out of line with other predictions.
Sultan predicts a combined 40 mpg for Otule & Gardner
2002 predicts a combined 40 mpg
Brew City predicts a combined 36 mpg
So my 40 mpg prediction doesn't seem out of line. I don't know whether to be flattered or concerned that you thought enough to comment when I essentially said the same thing that 3 others posted ahead of me. :)
I fully expect Otule and Gardner to improve from their season end performance where they were already putting in a combined 33 mpg. If they both increase their average mpg by just 3 minutes a a game, that's 40 mpg combined.
I agree that sometimes Buzz will go small--but I would guess that it means Crowder or Wilson plays up--not that one of the frosh get off the bench to take that spot.
I actually intentionally picked them to combine to 40 mpg. I figure over the course of the season, they will play together about 5 mpg and without either 5 mpg.
However, if someone adds them up to 35 mpg, I wouldn't argue. It is certainly more in line with what Buzz has done in the past.
I figure 40 minutes from Gardner and Otule for a few reasons:
#1 Crowder has had some difficulty staying out of foul trouble, and given MU's lack of depth at the PF position, I would hate to "waste" Crowder's minutes and fouls at a position (C) where MU has 2 players who can play.
#2 I've heard great things about Jamil Wilson, but I haven't seen him play enough to know if he can play effective minutes at either PF or C to make Otule or Gardner sit.
#3 Lastly, it isn't inconceivable for both Gardner and Otule to be in the line-up at the same time, but my guess is that will be more of a science experiment than something we see every game.
Maybe the follow-up question is, if they don't get all 40min at C, who is taking those extra minutes?
Based on last year Buzz will play either Otule or Gardner most of the time, neither some of the time and both almost never. That's why I think they'll combine for less than 40 minutes per game.
Quote from: Lennys Tap on June 04, 2011, 03:44:36 PM
Based on last year Buzz will play either Otule or Gardner most of the time, neither some of the time and both almost never. That's why I think they'll combine for less than 40 minutes per game.
You are 100% correct.
I'm sure Buzz will experiment again, but I just don't see
who is going to take more than 3min/game at the Center position outside of Otule and Gardner.
I just don't see anybody on the roster that can fill the role, without sacrificing some of Jae's minutes, which will leave Buzz with a potential depth problem at PF.
Who is taking the minutes as Center?
Quote from: brewcity77 on June 03, 2011, 11:13:36 PM
27 mpg from Otule and Gardner seems like a lot. I don't think there's any way we get 40 combined out of them. I mean, that's tripling Gardner's minutes...a very steep hope.
Who else is going to get those minutes at the 5? I have no problem with them on the court for those minutes. I expect Gardner to be in tip-top shape to start the season. He knows he's good and can be significantly better if he gets in better shape. Otule shouldn't have a problem with the increased minutes.
Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I think that Otule and Gardner will see about 22 and 11 respectively. We probably go small more often than we ever play the two together.
So going back to my original post, that frees up an additional 7 minutes for someone. Juan? Jamail? Someone else?
I think it is obvious that unless a returner like Jamail gets major minutes, some freshman is going to be playing minutes like Vander did last year.
Quote from: Marquette84 on June 03, 2011, 11:22:05 PM
I think you have to look at the end-of-season performance. We were already getting close to that out of them.
Otule and Gardner combined for an average of 33.5 mpg in the six games in the BET and NCAA tournaments. 40 combined doesn't seem unreachable.
I could see that happening in some games, but I would think if Buzz wants to press neither will be on the floor.
Quote from: bilsu on June 03, 2011, 08:42:36 PM
You giver credit for Mayo for playing a fifth year of high school and ignore the fact that Singleton started two years in college and has a third year as a redshirt. Mayo was only rated an 89. Wilson is rated 90 and recruits ranked that low just do not play as freshmen in the Big East, especially for a team that already has DJO, Cadougan and Blue. Jones was rated 94 or 95 and did not play. Williams was rated high also and did not play. Unless you think that Mayo and Wilson were significantly underrated there simply is no reason to expect them to play as freshmen. Of course you can point to Gardner and say ratings do no matter. However, in Gardner's case he is a center, were MU does not have much depth. The biggest thing for Buzz is whether the player can play defense. Anderson and Wilson have a shot to play because of that. Mayo at this point is just known for shooting. We already have Jones for that and he did not play as a freshmen.
I'm a Singleton fan..actually..but didn't classify him as a freshman due to having 2 years of college ball experience. My take is that Singleton will get the backup minutes at PG, and Wilson won't see the court as a freshman or much as a sophomore. Mayo is a very good athlete who will be capable of defending at this level. His 89 rating is what it is, but many feel he came on late and was practivally unstoppable, and maybe the best player in his Prep School league -which featured some high4-star talent. From the little I've seen of Mayo (clips) he has a great feel for the game, playes with a great tempo/pace - much like a D-Wade (not saying he's gonna be close to D-Wade) but seems to play with a cerebralness...compare that to a DJO who I love- but DJO would greatly benefit if he could play the game with more rhythm/hesitation/shake and bake. I suspect DJO probably isn't a very good dancer..not too smooth...lots of herky jerk with DJO...Mayo is smooth.
Quote from: windyplayer on June 04, 2011, 04:48:35 PM
Who else is going to get those minutes at the 5? I have no problem with them on the court for those minutes. I expect Gardner to be in tip-top shape to start the season. He knows he's good and can be significantly better if he gets in better shape. Otule shouldn't have a problem with the increased minutes.
Who took them last year when the two of them averaged less than 27 mpg? Mostly Crowder, and if Jamil Wilson can guard the 5, he'll get his time there as well.
Quote from: brewcity77 on June 05, 2011, 09:38:34 AM
Who took them last year when the two of them averaged less than 27 mpg? Mostly Crowder, and if Jamil Wilson can guard the 5, he'll get his time there as well.
Yes, but that is because Jimmy could slide to the #4 spot easily.
To be honest, Gardner and Otule's minutes will probably be determined by Jamil Wilson's ability to play the #4 spot. If he can, then Jae can move over and play some #5. If Jamil is a true #3, then I don't think you can risk putting Jae at #5 and wasting his fouls/minutes.
Quote from: windyplayer on June 04, 2011, 04:48:35 PM
Who else is going to get those minutes at the 5?
There just wouldn't be a 5 on the court at that time, at least size-wise. There'd be a 1, some combination of three 2s and 3s, and a biggish guy like Crowder. On the D end Crowder would guard the opponent's biggest guy, but that would just require careful substitution and clock management by Buzz to prevent the opponent from subbing in a real big against Crowder.
What worries me the most about Mayo's 89 ranking is his name. He has a famous brother and I cannot help but think rankings are influenced by that. The same goes for Zeller who is going to Indiana. I am sure he is very good, but he had the benefit of his brothers reputation before him as he was hyped as being the best of the three brothers. However, it is possible, because of his brothers trouble, big programs stayed away form Mayo and that had a negative effect on his rating. To me his ranking is very questionable and I have no idea whether it is high or low. However, I do not expect him to play much, if 89 is his true ranking.
Quote from: bilsu on June 06, 2011, 09:13:38 AM
What worries me the most about Mayo's 89 ranking is his name. He has a famous brother and I cannot help but think rankings are influenced by that. The same goes for Zeller who is going to Indiana. I am sure he is very good, but he had the benefit of his brothers reputation before him as he was hyped as being the best of the three brothers. However, it is possible, because of his brothers trouble, big programs stayed away form Mayo and that had a negative effect on his rating. To me his ranking is very questionable and I have no idea whether it is high or low. However, I do not expect him to play much, if 89 is his true ranking.
If 89 is accurate he will play very little next year. If it's high, he'll likely play very little in his career. If it's low (as I hope and to some degree expect) he could help next year and could turn into a stud.
Quote from: bilsu on June 06, 2011, 09:13:38 AM
What worries me the most about Mayo's 89 ranking is his name. He has a famous brother and I cannot help but think rankings are influenced by that. The same goes for Zeller who is going to Indiana. I am sure he is very good, but he had the benefit of his brothers reputation before him as he was hyped as being the best of the three brothers. However, it is possible, because of his brothers trouble, big programs stayed away form Mayo and that had a negative effect on his rating. To me his ranking is very questionable and I have no idea whether it is high or low. However, I do not expect him to play much, if 89 is his true ranking.
Many top programs, including Kansas, came on late for Mayo's services. WVU and Huggins wanted him badly. He was considered one of, if not the best guard prospect available in the spring signing period. We've seen with Gardner, and contrasting that with Blue and Jamail Jones - that sometimes the rating number doesn't always tell the whole story. Keep in mind he put up better numbers than Lazar did at Notre Dame prep, and was playing stiff competition day in day out in that Prep School league.
Quote from: Ners on June 06, 2011, 12:04:43 PM
Many top programs, including Kansas, came on late for Mayo's services. WVU and Huggins wanted him badly. He was considered one of, if not the best guard prospect available in the spring signing period. We've seen with Gardner, and contrasting that with Blue and Jamail Jones - that sometimes the rating number doesn't always tell the whole story. Keep in mind he put up better numbers than Lazar did at Notre Dame prep, and was playing stiff competition day in day out in that Prep School league.
+1
While guys do get overrated based on name value, I don't think that's the case with Mayo. The numbers he was putting up against some of the top prep players in the nation were incredible. I do believe that he was initially (2 years ago or so) overrated because of his name, and when he bounced between schools, he dropped. But once he was able to settle in and actually play, he showed that he wasn't just OJ's little brother. I have no idea if it will translate to the D1 level, but his recent play indicates he's more likely underrated than overrated.