MUScoop

My vote is 11 - Think the BE as a whole has performed extremely well outside of conference.  MU's non-conference losses could very likely be to 4 Conference Champs - Duke, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Gonzaga - by a combined 14 points.

Quote from: Ners on December 30, 2010, 04:45:20 PM
My vote is 11 - Think the BE as a whole has performed extremely well outside of conference.  MU's non-conference losses could very likely be to 4 Conference Champs - Duke, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Gonzaga - by a combined 14 points.

Above is assuming a first round BE tourney loss. That would be 20 wins. I don't think that does it.... 11 with a tourney win is bigtime bubble, but in.

That hurts us as much as helps.  many of the big east teams we will be competing against for a spot will have 1 or 2 quality non conference wins on neutral sites making our chances much less

12 conference wins including one in the BET is the BARE MINIMUM.

We need at least 12 conference wins, I agree with that. If we get 12 in conference, we should be able to survive losing our first Big East tourney game. I think what many people are forgetting is that while we can pick up signature wins, getting 11 wins and 1-2 signature wins also likely means 1-2 bad losses to offset the big wins. Going 21-11 with 12-6 in conference would be the bare minimum. It would also help if 2-3 of those were over top ten teams. Though as it stands right now, we can only get 9 wins against unranked opponents.

Also, while I felt that Vandy was a must-win game, and still feel that it was (I'm expecting NIT now) we have virtually no chance if we don't beat West Virginia at home on Saturday. Needing to win 12 of 17, with 9 of those against top 20 teams, would be virtually unthinkable for this team right now. I'm still going to cheer for them every game, but we have a huge uphill climb that would become K2-like if we lost to WVU.

12, or 11 +1 in the tournament will get us in.  Probably 9 very tough games and 9 more winnable ones in the schedule.  So that means 3 "quality" wins are required, more if we slip up against DePaul again or lose to a middle/bottom team at home.

Quote from: chapman on December 30, 2010, 05:22:35 PM
12, or 11 +1 in the tournament will get us in.  Probably 9 very tough games and 9 more winnable ones in the schedule.  So that means 3 "quality" wins are required, more if we slip up against DePaul again or lose to a middle/bottom team at home.

I think that's understating the difficulty of our schedule. I think it's safe to say that any game against a top 20 team is considered very tough, even at home. That's half of our Big East schedule. Add in road games, as well as home games against Cincy and West Virginia (both close to being ranked) and that gives us 14 games that should be classed as very tough, in my opinion.

This team needs to start winning against real opposition in a hurry, or this could be a very long season.

Pitt, Syracuse, No Dick, Villanova, Georgetown, Cinncy, WVa., Louisville etc. are all opportunities for us to make the NCAA.

Quote from: Ners on December 30, 2010, 04:45:20 PM
My vote is 11 - Think the BE as a whole has performed extremely well outside of conference.  MU's non-conference losses could very likely be to 4 Conference Champs - Duke, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Gonzaga - by a combined 14 points.

don't get your fascination with how many points we have lost by. Fact is we lost. who cares by how much.

Quote from: IAmMarquette on December 30, 2010, 05:10:31 PM
12 conference wins including one in the BET is the BARE MINIMUM.

We have 18 BE games against 10 ranked opponents.  So to get to 12 we have to beat at least FOUR ranked teams along with sweeping the eight non ranked opponents.

On another note, the ACC is really down this year.  I bet they send 2 or 3 teams (one being Duke) instead of 6 to 8.  The BE benefits at the expense of the ACC and sets a record by sending 9 or 10 teams.  If so, some 9 and 9 BE team is going to the dance.  Why not us?

Bottom line, you're all too high.  9 or 10 wins can get us in as it means we have to beat a couple of ranked opponents to even get 9 wins.

Quote from: AnotherMU84 on December 31, 2010, 11:21:14 AM
We have 18 BE games against 10 ranked opponents.  So to get to 12 we have to beat at least FOUR ranked teams along with sweeping the eight non ranked opponents.

On another note, the ACC is really down this year.  I bet they send 2 or 3 teams (one being Duke) instead of 6 to 8.  The BE benefits at the expense of the ACC and sets a record by sending 9 or 10 teams.  If so, some 9 and 7 BE team is going to the dance.  Why not us?

Bottom line, you're all too high.  9 or 10 wins can get us in as it means we have to beat a couple of ranked opponents to even get 9.

I like your analysis, and you might be right. However, if we go 9-9 inconference, that would give us 18-13 overall, and that will likely not be enough, unless we have some big time quality wins over Syracuse, Pitt etc. And remember, just because we may get some quality wins, we may get some doofus losses also to balance it out. Based on how we are playing right now, 9-9 looks good.

A followup to my analysis above ...

If we win "at least" 12 games, not only are we going to the NCAA tourney, we are probably ranked at the end of the season and getting a #5 or #6 seed.  13 and 5 (at least 12 wins) put is at 22 and 9 overall and at least 5 wins over currently ranked teams.  My guess is this type of record gives is a #18 to #25 ranking.

You guys need to look at our schedule and see how hard it is.  This gives us tons of opportunities for quality wins and why 9 wins might be enough.  I might add that no one has yet to pick 9 wins (I picked 10 but cannot change it to 9).

Quote from: AnotherMU84 on December 31, 2010, 02:12:46 PM
A followup to my analysis above ...

If we win "at least" 12 games, not only are we going to the NCAA tourney, we are probably ranked at the end of the season and getting a #5 or #6 seed.  13 and 5 (at least 12 wins) put is at 22 and 9 overall and at least 5 wins over currently ranked teams.  My guess is this type of record gives is a #18 to #25 ranking.

You guys need to look at our schedule and see how hard it is.  This gives us tons of opportunities for quality wins and why 9 wins might be enough.  I might add that no one has yet to pick 9 wins (I picked 10 but cannot change it to 9).

This thread was based on no tourney wins.  IE a first round tourney loss.  If we only have 10 wins we are 19-13 (13th loss from the BE tourney) and out in my opinion.  No out of conference quality wins and a first round matchup loss with a 9th or 10th place finisher in the BE.  Not a bad loss at the end but sure not one to tell the committe to select us.

9 wins and a first round tourney loss would be no chance, or am I missing something?

Quote from: AnotherMU84 on December 31, 2010, 02:12:46 PMA followup to my analysis above ...

If we win "at least" 12 games, not only are we going to the NCAA tourney, we are probably ranked at the end of the season and getting a #5 or #6 seed.  13 and 5 (at least 12 wins) put is at 22 and 9 overall and at least 5 wins over currently ranked teams.  My guess is this type of record gives is a #18 to #25 ranking.

You guys need to look at our schedule and see how hard it is.  This gives us tons of opportunities for quality wins and why 9 wins might be enough.  I might add that no one has yet to pick 9 wins (I picked 10 but cannot change it to 9).

(http://www.invisionplus.net/forums/html/emoticons/dragonstouch_dragonstouch_lmao.gif)

9? Really? 9!?! Hahahahahahahahaha...

Yeah, maybe if those nine wins are against UConn twice, Notre Dame twice, Syracuse, Pitt, Georgetown, Villanova, and Louisville. If we only win nine that all but guarantees a few bad legitimately bad losses that will damage our already unimpressive resume. And as chren pointed out, 19-13 will leave us a middle-of-the-road BEast team, likely with at most 2-3 wins over top 25 opposition (and for every win we have there, almost assured a bad loss). And honestly, 20-12 with a first round BEast loss to what will likely be a team like Rutgers or Seton Hall will probably have us on the outside looking in.

9 - no chance
10 - unlikely
11 - 50/50
12 - Should be in

I'm really surprised that 12 wins has gotten as many votes as it has.  Given that we had 11 wins last year, and got a 6 seed...just can't see how 11 wins won't get us in this year.  We had the Xavier win, but Michigan finished the year ranked 140 in the RPI...think Vandy, Duke and Gonzaga are going to be champs of their conferences...a road win against Vandy would have been huge..but just don't see it as essential.

Given the 68 team field just can't see anyway that a Big East team that goes 11-7 in conference doesn't get in the dance - particularily one who has shown it can play with Duke, Vandy, Wisco...

Quote from: brewcity77 on December 31, 2010, 04:29:18 PM
And honestly, 20-12 with a first round BEast loss to what will likely be a team like Rutgers or Seton Hall will probably have us on the outside looking in.

Last year's Louisville team says hello.  And, not that they're positives, but our non-conference losses are far less egregious than theirs were.

You think Vandy is going to be SEC champions?  I mean, they're good, but not *that* good.

Quote from: Ners on December 31, 2010, 04:39:09 PM
I'm really surprised that 12 wins has gotten as many votes as it has.  Given that we had 11 wins last year, and got a 6 seed...just can't see how 11 wins won't get us in this year.  We had the Xavier win, but Michigan finished the year ranked 140 in the RPI...think Vandy, Duke and Gonzaga are going to be champs of their conferences...a road win against Vandy would have been huge..but just don't see it as essential.

Given the 68 team field just can't see anyway that a Big East team that goes 11-7 in conference doesn't get in the dance - particularily one who has shown it can play with Duke, Vandy, Wisco...

Again, this is based on first round loss in BE tourney. Last year we won 2 games in the tourney and then lost to Georgetown. There is a big difference there especially when the second w came against a top ten team in villanova.

Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on December 31, 2010, 04:44:28 PM
You think Vandy is going to be SEC champions?  I mean, they're good, but not *that* good.

I really do think Vandy has a very legitimate chance at being SEC champs.  Kentucky will be main competition.  What's not to like about the Vandy team - they can hurt you in so many ways.  Stallings is highly regarded coach.  Got a Diener like PG, great wings, great inside presence, good athleticism, and a great home court advantage.  They are something like 725-150 in that building.

Quote from: brewcity77 on December 31, 2010, 04:29:18 PM
(http://www.invisionplus.net/forums/html/emoticons/dragonstouch_dragonstouch_lmao.gif)

9? Really? 9!?! Hahahahahahahahaha...

Yeah, maybe if those nine wins are against UConn twice, Notre Dame twice, Syracuse, Pitt, Georgetown, Villanova, and Louisville. If we only win nine that all but guarantees a few bad legitimately bad losses that will damage our already unimpressive resume. And as chren pointed out, 19-13 will leave us a middle-of-the-road BEast team, likely with at most 2-3 wins over top 25 opposition (and for every win we have there, almost assured a bad loss). And honestly, 20-12 with a first round BEast loss to what will likely be a team like Rutgers or Seton Hall will probably have us on the outside looking in.

9 - no chance
10 - unlikely
11 - 50/50
12 - Should be in

You must not be paying attention so let's try this again.

2010
ND and G-town made it with a 10 - 8 BE record

2009
WVU made it in with a 10-8 record, Prov also was 10-8 and did not

2008
Nova made it at 9-9, Syracuse did not at 9-9 (and much as been written that this was one of the biggest snubs ever)

2007
16 game schedule
Nova in at 9-7
WVU and Depaul not in at 9-7

2006
S Hall in at 9-7
Syracuse in at 7-9
Cincy not in at 8-8

2005
ND out at 9-7
WVU in at 8 - 8

Bottom Line
Since the BE went to 18 games in 2008, every team with 10 wins or more has made the NCAA, except Providence and a robbed Syracuse.  Are we this year's Providence?

Lastly, the current rankings have 7 BE teams ranked (5 in the top 10) and two others getting votes.  KenPom has 11 BE teams in the top 50 (MU is the 11th team at #42)

http://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=be&y=2011

Current KenPom top 50 teams
BE = 11
ACC = 4
B10 = 6
B12 = 9
Pac10 = 4
SEC = 4

The BE is not only the toughest conference, it is far and away the toughest conference.

Here is the Truth
9 wins = 50/50 getting in the NCAA, if not, a favorite to win the NIT
10 wins = in the NCAA
11 wins = in the NCAA, 50/50 on being ranked
12 wins = in the NCAA and ranked
13 wins = #4 seed

I'll say it again, do you guys have any idea how tough the BE is this year.  We will be playing the best (including Duke) and by March the odds are well over 50% we played this year's national champion.

If we get 11 to 13 wins in the 2011 edition of the BE it's because we are a good team deserving of a ranking.  This is not the Big 10, it is much tougher in the BE so we need fewer wins.

Quote from: dsfire on December 31, 2010, 04:40:44 PM
Last year's Louisville team says hello.  And, not that they're positives, but our non-conference losses are far less egregious than theirs were.

I still think it's 50/50 if we win 11 games. Let's not forget Louisville's two huge signature wins. First they knocked off unbeaten Syracuse on the road, then proved it wasn't a fluke by beating them at home just a week before the field was set. If they didn't beat Syracuse a second time, and instead got 11 wins by beating St. John's or Seton Hall earlier in the season, do they make the Dance? I sure wouldn't have given them very good odds.

We can get in with 11 wins, but we need to have some really big wins in there, like Louisville did against Syracuse. I think two wins against top 5 teams will be requisite if we only get 11 wins. We have those chances, but we have to capitalize.

Quote from: AnotherMU84 on December 31, 2010, 06:46:13 PM

http://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=be&y=2011

Current KenPom top 50 teams
BE = 11
ACC = 4
B10 = 6
B12 = 9
Pac10 = 4
SEC = 4

The BE is not only the toughest conference, it is far and away the toughest conference.

Ken Pom has the Big East rated 3rd...how can it be the toughest conference when you're using Ken Pom as your source but that very source has the conference rated 3rd best?  Not trying to pick a fight, just asking.

http://www.kenpom.com/conf.php?c=BE

Brew:

See my analysis above ... since we joined the BE in 2005, every team with 11 BE wins has made the tourney without exception.  Why do you think we will be the first BE team not to make it with 11 wins?  Remember, as of now, we have no bad losses.

Like I've said before, the consensus thinking around here is usually wrong.  That's why I wished this was an investment blog, I could get rich doing the opposite of the consensus.  The consensus of 11 wins is wrong, the answer is 9.

Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on December 31, 2010, 07:14:24 PM
Ken Pom has the Big East rated 3rd...how can it be the toughest conference when you're using Ken Pom as your source but that very source has the conference rated 3rd best?  Not trying to pick a fight, just asking.

http://www.kenpom.com/conf.php?c=BE

KenPom ratings are the entire conference.  Since we have 16 teams, the South Florida's and DePauls drag our ranking down.  Rate the top 12 (number of teams in the ACC and B10) and we are way ahead of everyone else.

That is why we can have 11 teams in the top 50 and be ranked 3rd whereas the ACC only has 4 and is ahead of us.  They have "better crappy teams" than the bottom of the BE.

Side Note, KenPom has us winning against WVU tomorrow by 1 point (52% chance of winning).

Has anyone ever made it with 9 and not won at least one BE tourney game?

I'm looking at wiki and winning in the BE tourney matters. AGAIN this thread is based on losing the first game in the BE tourney. Take a look at the history.

Last post here until next year ... KenPom projects us 9 - 9 in the conference.  That puts us on the bubble.

Quote from: AnotherMU84 on December 31, 2010, 07:31:51 PM
Last post here until next year ... KenPom projects us 9 - 9 in the conference.  That puts us on the bubble.

RPI projects us mid 70's...that's off the bubble. 

Ken Pom's 9 wins prediction in conference, only two against teams that are expected to be NCAA tournament caliber. 

Quote from: AnotherMU84 on December 31, 2010, 07:27:41 PM
KenPom ratings are the entire conference.  Since we have 16 teams, the South Florida's and DePauls drag our ranking down.  Rate the top 12 (number of teams in the ACC and B10) and we are way ahead of everyone else.

That is why we can have 11 teams in the top 50 and be ranked 3rd whereas the ACC only has 4 and is ahead of us.  They have "better crappy teams" than the bottom of the BE.

Side Note, KenPom has us winning against WVU tomorrow by 1 point (52% chance of winning).

Correct, but that's also why it's not the "toughest conference" since the entire conference has to be factored in, not just the top teams.  The league doesn't just play the top 12, they play 15 of the 16 teams in the conference, the good and the crappy.

Quote from: AnotherMU84 on December 31, 2010, 06:46:13 PM
You must not be paying attention so let's try this again.

2010
ND and G-town made it with a 10 - 8 BE record

Notre Dame: Won 23 games overall, including their last six in Big East play that included wins over ranked Pittsburgh twice and Georgetown.

Georgetown: Won 23 games overall, including non-conference wins against Butler, Washington, and Duke, along with two top-five conference wins over Villanova and Syracuse

Quote from: AnotherMU84 on December 31, 2010, 06:46:13 PM2009
WVU made it in with a 10-8 record, Prov also was 10-8 and did not

West Virginia: Won 23 games overall, including a non-conference road decimation of Ohio State. This team also probably needed the BEast tourney semifinal run that included a win over #2 Pitt.

Providence: Won 19 games overall, no significant non-conference wins, and only two wins over ranked teams.

Quote from: AnotherMU84 on December 31, 2010, 06:46:13 PM2008
Nova made it at 9-9, Syracuse did not at 9-9 (and much as been written that this was one of the biggest snubs ever)

Villanova: Won 20 games overall, barely got in as a 12-seed, probably the least impressive BEast resume to make the tourney, though to their credit they made the Sweet 16.

Syracuse: Only won 19 games, only 2 wins over ranked teams, and a fairly weak non-conference schedule. Also lost to Villanova in what was probably seen by the committee as an elimination game.

Quote from: AnotherMU84 on December 31, 2010, 06:46:13 PMBottom Line
Since the BE went to 18 games in 2008, every team with 10 wins or more has made the NCAA, except Providence and a robbed Syracuse.  Are we this year's Providence?

First, that's a blatant lie. This robbed Syracuse team you speak of only won 9 BEast games. And of the teams you list, no team with fewer than 20 overall wins made the NCAA tournament. If we go 10-8 with a first round loss, that leaves us at 19-13 overall. You really think that will get us in? 19 wins, no significant non-conference wins...hmm, that does sound very similar to that Providence team. If we get the extra win and go 20-12, that puts us at about the same place as that Villanova team. Most likely a couple wins over ranked teams, no significant non-conference wins, and biting our nails on Selection Sunday as we hope and pray for a 12 or 13 seed. I'm not saying that 11 wins can't get us in, I'm just saying that looking at our resume thus far, it's no guarantee. And frankly, I don't think that given the 10-11 wins you're talking about you can even remotely compare us to those teams like Notre Dame, Georgetown, and West Virginia that came in with 23 wins under their belt. Like it or not, total wins is a stat the committee will look at. It's no guarantee, but it's damn important, and without 12 wins, we aren't cracking 20.

Quote from: AnotherMU84 on December 31, 2010, 06:46:13 PMLastly, the current rankings have 7 BE teams ranked (5 in the top 10) and two others getting votes.  KenPom has 11 BE teams in the top 50 (MU is the 11th team at #42)

Okay, so we're in 11th? Should that give us confidence? When was the last time a single conference placed 11 teams in the Big Dance? How about 10? I realize this will all change as the conference season goes on, but we've got ground to make up. And look at the current non-conference resumes of the teams we're competing with for those last bids. West Virginia has four top 100 wins and one in the top 20. Notre Dame has four top 100 wins and one in the top 20. UConn has three top 50 wins and one top 10. St. John's has two top 100 wins and one top 50. Even Seton Hall, Cincinnati, South Florida, Rutgers, and Providence have at least one top 100 win each. Outside of DePaul, there isn't a single team in the Big East that doesn't have two wins that are better than our best win. That win is over Bucknell (126) and we only have two wins in the top 200. Reality is that for the committee, we're probably the 13th or 14th best Big East team based on what we've actually accomplished, and we need to climb 4-5 places decisively in the conference pecking order if we want a bid.

Quote from: AnotherMU84 on December 31, 2010, 06:46:13 PMHere is the Truth
9 wins = 50/50 getting in the NCAA, if not, a favorite to win the NIT
10 wins = in the NCAA
11 wins = in the NCAA, 50/50 on being ranked
12 wins = in the NCAA and ranked
13 wins = #4 seed

Here is the Truth, Ron Killings (since you needed to capitalize it).

9 wins = No chance in hell of making it with an 18-14 record and no significant non-conference wins.
10 wins = Bubble team that will be sitting on eggshells with a 19-13 record and no non-conference resume to boost them up. Think Providence.
11 wins = 50/50 on being in, depends on who we beat and where
12 wins = In the NCAA comfortably
13 wins = #4 seed (hey, we agree on one!)

As much as you want to say that 10 is a guarantee, it's not. You have to account for the non-conference wins and total wins of the other teams in question. Remember, this thread assumes that we are losing our first BEast tourney game. If we have 9 or 10 wins, there's a very good chance that goes down as a bad loss right before Selection Sunday. If we have 11 wins, it's still 50/50 that it's a bad loss. And total wins makes a difference. While we have no bad losses, we don't have a single top 100 victory in non-conference. We only have one top 150 victory. And the seven wins we have that are 200+ aren't enough to give us a gaudy win total that helps the committee overlook the caliber of opponent.

This thread asks a simple question. How many Big East wins are required to make the NCAAs? How many do we absolutely, no questions asked, have to have in order to get into the Big Dance. Well, we'll need more than 20 total victories, we'll need at least 3 against ranked opposition, and we'll need some road wins. The number that guarantees all of those things is 12. Which is why I maintain that despite the history of our conference, anything less becomes a roll of the dice.

Brew, thanks. That's exactly what I was trying to across. You're right on

If we win 10 games our RPI won't be in the 70's.

RPI predictions are just a waste of time. I saw one today that predicted that UW's would be 56 and Central Florida's would be 9....lol.

FWIW MN got in last year with an RPI of 64....We were a 6 seed with an RPI of 54....ND 6 seed with a 52.

Let it all play out. Nobody has any idea what it will or won't take. Most years recently its been hard to even find 64 worthy teams...this year they need 68.

I have no idea if we will get in our not but if win 10 I like our chances.

Anyone who thinks it will take 12 or 13 needs to put down the crack pipe...... ;)

This year has set up almost exactly like last year - four early close, heartbreaking losses including two very impressive showings on TV (Duke and Vandy, projected final top 10 RPI by RPIForcast).  Looking impressive in the close losses puts teams much higher than their RPI rating would indicate.

Last year MU eventually started winning the close games, and finished the year with a No. 50 RPI and a No. 6 seed, indicating the selection committee had them at least 26 spots higher than their RPI position.

If MU goes 10-8 in the conference this year which would likely include at least 4 wins against Top 50 RPI, they are projected to have the 54th best RPI in the country - basically just as good as last year since there are 4 more spots for invites - and games like Vandy and Duke would move MU easily in again.

Fewer wins but with a bigger field and a MUCH tougher SOS in an even better conference.

Quote from: brewcity77 on December 31, 2010, 08:07:40 PM
First, that's a blatant lie. This robbed Syracuse team you speak of only won 9 BEast games. And of the teams you list, no team with fewer than 20 overall wins made the NCAA tournament.

Syracuse finished 2008 with a 55 RPI, one of the lowest ever for a team not invited.  As MuMark noted above, MU and ND were 6 seeds with similar RPIs.  Now if you want to say RPI is meaningless you'll get no complaint from me.  But, you'll have to take it up with the committee as they use it.

Quote from: brewcity77 on December 31, 2010, 08:07:40 PM
You really think that will get us in? 19 wins, no significant non-conference wins...hmm, that does sound very similar to that Providence team. If we get the extra win and go 20-12, that puts us at about the same place as that Villanova team.

...

This thread asks a simple question. How many Big East wins are required to make the NCAAs? How many do we absolutely, no questions asked, have to have in order to get into the Big Dance. Well, we'll need more than 20 total victories, we'll need at least 3 against ranked opposition, and we'll need some road wins. The number that guarantees all of those things is 12. Which is why I maintain that despite the history of our conference, anything less becomes a roll of the dice.

I don't think anyone sees the question as "how many wins so that we have enough of a cushion to choke on, get upset in, the first BE tourney game and still get in."  This appears to be the question you're answering.

I think most think the question is "how many wins, and then do what should be EXPECTED in the BE tourney, to get in" ....

If we get 10 BE wins and sitting on 19, we should be favored in the first game of the BE tourney.  Do what we are suppose to do in game 1 and we get 20 overall wins and we are in.

9 BE wins and we are 18 -14.  The first round BE tourney we should/can win.  Finish 19 and 15 and we are a bubble team.  But with three extra spots (taking 68 teams this year) and the ACC down, look for the BE to get 9 or 10 teams (versus the customary 8).  We are 50/50 in making the tourney.

Another reason I agree with brew is I just don think the committee will take more than 8 from the BE.

Quote from: AnotherMU84 on January 01, 2011, 08:20:28 AM
Syracuse finished 2008 with a 55 RPI, one of the lowest ever for a team not invited.  As MuMark noted above, MU and ND were 6 seeds with similar RPIs.  Now if you want to say RPI is meaningless you'll get no complaint from me.  But, you'll have to take it up with the committee as they use it.

Last year both the #55 and #56 RPI teams missed the tourney in Mississippi State and Virginia Tech. The year before, #35 St. Mary's and #40 Creighton both missed the Big Dance. In 2008, RPI #32 Dayton and #33 Illinois State missed the tourney. And I'm pretty sure Missouri State had the #20 RPI and got snubbed in 2005.

Quote from: AnotherMU84 on January 01, 2011, 08:20:28 AMI don't think anyone sees the question as "how many wins so that we have enough of a cushion to choke on, get upset in, the first BE tourney game and still get in."  This appears to be the question you're answering.

I think most think the question is "how many wins, and then do what should be EXPECTED in the BE tourney, to get in" ....

Uhh, where did it say "do what should be EXPECTED" in the fine print? The question is how many Big East wins will it take? At that rate, you might as well say "if we take care of business in the non-conference" which would mean at least 2 wins...oh, wait, we didn't get those. At this point, looking only at the upcoming conference schedule, it will take 12 Big East wins. 11 may be enough. 10 most likely won't be enough. 9 will not be enough. The number that guarantees an NCAA berth is 12. That's all I'm saying. Anything less and you're rolling the dice on Selection Sunday.