How many wins will we need to make the tournament. I honestly see 2-3 more losses the rest of the way. It seems that we can hang with the big boys but we need wins to get in. It looks like we have played all our tough games except uconn and syracuse.
We will need 10 conference wins to go. I don't think a 9-9 conference record will get us there because we played too many 200+ RPI teams in our pre-conference schedule. That may come back to haunt us. We need to learn from that and upgrade our patsies to the likes of Northern IL, Loyola, UIC, Indiana State, etc. on next year's schedule.
Quote from: mufvr on January 09, 2010, 05:32:18 PM
We will need 10 conference wins to go. I don't think a 9-9 conference record will get us there because we played too many 200+ RPI teams in our pre-conference schedule. That may come back to haunt us. We need to learn from that and upgrade our patsies to the likes of Northern IL, Loyola, UIC, Indiana State, etc. on next year's schedule.
I think scheduling a MAC and MVC team every year would work out well for everyone involved.
A win either at UConn or at Syracuse is the signature win we need. That with 10 wins total gets us in I think. Otherwise, we might need 11 wins to get in.
At 1-3 right now, 10-4 is not out of the question in the rest of the games, particularly since this team is still kind of learning to gel and we might get more out of the freshman as the season goes.
1/17 PROV 4:00 PM
1/20 @ DEP 9:00 PM
1/23 @ SYR 2:00 PM
1/26 RUTG 9:00 PM
1/30 @ CONN 12:00 PM
2/03 DEP 7:00 PM
2/06 @ PROV 12:00 PM
2/13 USF 8:30 PM
2/18 PITT 9:00 PM
2/21 @ CIN 2:00 PM
2/24 @ SJU 7:30 PM
2/28 @ HALL 12:00 PM
3/02 LOU 9:30 PM
3/06 ND 2:00 PM
Don't forget the BET. Could make a nice little run, with hopefully another signature win or 2.
"signature wins" are nice but overall profile is just as important.
Last year we were a 6 seed even though we lost 5 of our last 6 (if you include the Big East tourny) and had a major injury for the SC to consider.
We beat only 3 teams that made the tournament last year(UW, WVU, and Nova) and yet we still easily made it.
Beating the other teams that we will be competing against for possible bubble spots will be important along with not losing to any bottom feeders.
If we on the bubble they will look at who we lost to and how we played in those losses. It sure helped us last year and it will again if we can get to 10 conference wins.
We need to get to 10-6 in conference, win a game or two in the BET, and get one of those marquee wins other than Georgetown @ home. Also, it does shape up nice that the NCAA looks at the last 10-12 games record.
I assume you meant 10-8.......
We have 2 more chances for "big" wins. @Syracuse and @ UCONN.......nobody thinks we are going to get one of those and we don't need it though it would be nice.
Can we make the tournament? Who cares, enjoy the season and promise.
Very remote. We have one good win. Zero road wins. I think we are a longshot.
Quote from: lab_warrior on January 09, 2010, 06:43:40 PMWe need to get to 10-6 in conference, win a game or two in the BET, and get one of those marquee wins other than Georgetown @ home. Also, it does shape up nice that the NCAA looks at the last 10-12 games record.
As somebody pointed out, you probably mean 10-8. There are 18 conference games. Also, unfortunately for us this year, the NCAA Selection Committee has changed the focus on the last 12 games (previously the last 10 games). They now look at every game equally throughout the entire season, so the record in the last 12 (or 10) no longer matters.
Quote from: Brewtown Andy on January 09, 2010, 05:41:34 PM
I think scheduling a MAC and MVC team every year would work out well for everyone involved.
+1
Providence won 10 games last year also. The problem is that you need to win more than just one signature game. Providence beat Pitt last year and it still didn't matter.
MU doesn't have any signature wins other than G'Town. NC State lost again today, at home to an average Virginia team. Michigan will do us no favors. Xavier might, but they don't look to be the same old Xavier.
MU has got to win some of these close games to be talking about any of this NCAA stuff.
I think 10-8 with a nice little run into the BET would get us a spot.What it comes down to now is the farther we make it in the Big East Tournament the more likely our chances of an NCAA spot become at this point.
I would expect a good ranking in the tournament but just making it would make me happy. But I really don't have too many qualms about a deep NIT run (read: championship). I wouldn't like it but we might have to take what we can get.
The NCAA tourney?
Sorry, but unlike some fans here, the committee doesn't give brownie points for moral victories. Unless MU pulls off a major upset and gets a really good win, there is no way.
Quote from: gumbyandpokey on January 09, 2010, 08:39:50 PMThe NCAA tourney?
Sorry, but unlike some fans here, the committee doesn't give brownie points for moral victories. Unless MU pulls off a major upset and gets a really good win, there is no way.
So even if we went 12-2 the rest of our Big East season, with loses coming to UConn and Syracuse, and go 1-1 in the Big East Tournament, with the win being against a bottom half team, we wouldn't make it? That's what I get out of your statement. We could go 13-5 and not have a "good" win or an "upset." Alright, if you say so.
Quote from: gumbyandpokey on January 09, 2010, 08:39:50 PM
The NCAA tourney?
Sorry, but unlike some fans here, the committee doesn't give brownie points for moral victories. Unless MU pulls off a major upset and gets a really good win, there is no way.
Man gumby...you are the definition of sour grapes...it's funny that you didn't really post much after we beat Georgetown (granted the site was down...but still)
This team can def. make the NCAA tournament:
Looking at the schedule, 9 wins is very attainable pending any egg lays with wins against Georgetown, Providence (x2), Depaul (x2), St. Johns, Seton Hall (though this one looks tougher this year than usual), USF, and Rutgers
Add to that the "mid-level" games, of which I think we can win 2 - Pitt and Notre Dame are what I'm banking on...though Louisville also seems possible this year:
Pitt at home
Louisville at home
Notre Dame at home (on senior night)
and at Cincinnati
Then you have the tough ones
at Syracuse
at UCONN
Pull one of those two off, we probably make the tournament, but I would also think that if we can win 3 of those "mid level" games, then we can also make it, esp. with a respectable showing in the BET.
Of course, I am always open to criticism of this analysis...
This team might have an outside chance. Kenpom has us forecasted at 20-10 (11-7) including home wins against Pitt, ND, and Louisville with losses at Syracuse and at UCONN. My guess is we drop one of those home games, as Pitt has been improving and Louisville has a history of improving significantly in February. That means we'd have to win either at UCONN or Syracuse.
I took a look at last year's tournament teams, and both Michigan and Wisconsin made the tourney with only 20 wins. In particular, the Badger's signature non-conference win was at Virginia Tech, which became much less impressive as the season wore on, similar to what we might see from MU's wins over Michigan and Xavier this year.
In conference, the only "signature" road win you could really see was at Michigan, a bubble team as well. They promptly lost to Ohio State in the first round of the Big Ten tourney.
So, I would argue if MU play's out as kenpom predicts, even without the road wins against Cuse or UCONN we'd have a competitive profile if we win the "mid level" games at home.
The one major difference I see in the two profiles is last UW had a very high SOS, bolstering their RPI (45). It's been discussed at length on this board already how MU won't have this benefit.
In case you want to take a look at UW's profile from last year, here's the link http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Wisconsin&y=2009 (http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Wisconsin&y=2009)
Quote from: gumbyandpokey on January 09, 2010, 08:39:50 PM
The NCAA tourney?
Sorry, but unlike some fans here, the committee doesn't give brownie points for moral victories. Unless MU pulls off a major upset and gets a really good win, there is no way.
Gumby - you have bigger problems in bloomington
Quote from: gumbyandpokey on January 09, 2010, 08:39:50 PM
The NCAA tourney?
Sorry, but unlike some fans here, the committee doesn't give brownie points for moral victories. Unless MU pulls off a major upset and gets a really good win, there is no way.
I don't know what qualifies as a "brownie point" amongst the hill-folk, but here in civilized America, margin of victory is considered by the committee when evaluating bubble teams.
The three "moral victories" over the past ten days won't get MU on the bubble, but if the rest of their resume can, the close losses to top 10 teams plays in their favor.
Quote from: HoopsMalone on January 09, 2010, 05:42:00 PM
A win either at UConn or at Syracuse is the signature win we need. That with 10 wins total gets us in I think. Otherwise, we might need 11 wins to get in.
At 1-3 right now, 10-4 is not out of the question in the rest of the games, particularly since this team is still kind of learning to gel and we might get more out of the freshman as the season goes.
1/17 PROV 4:00 PM
1/20 @ DEP 9:00 PM
1/23 @ SYR 2:00 PM
1/26 RUTG 9:00 PM
1/30 @ CONN 12:00 PM
2/03 DEP 7:00 PM
2/06 @ PROV 12:00 PM
2/13 USF 8:30 PM
2/18 PITT 9:00 PM
2/21 @ CIN 2:00 PM
2/24 @ SJU 7:30 PM
2/28 @ HALL 12:00 PM
3/02 LOU 9:30 PM
3/06 ND 2:00 PM
I guess I am going to be the contrarian in this thread and say that I doubt we'll get enough wins in conference to earn an NCAA dance card.
My guess is MU will lose at Syracuse, at UConn, Pitt, at Cincinnati, at Seton Hall, and Louisville. I also would not be shocked if we lost at Providence and at home against ND.
Yes, I know I sound like a downer, but just looking at the matchups and MU's history against these teams, I think it will be a struggle to get enough wins to make the NCAA's. I hope I am wrong.
Yes.
Yes
Let me make it three in a row with an affirmative to the posted question.
My guess is that remaining schedule computes to 9-5 to go along with our 1-3 to this point. The 10-6 record then boils down to the BE Tourney from the committee's perspective, it seems to me, which means that it would be nice to win two in the BE tournament. If we did, I don't think that there's any question that we would be selected as one of the country's top 64.
I'd bet that my predicted 9-5 finish includes at least one loss that posters here have had us winning and a corresponding win in a game that we were expected to lose. Like Buzz's quotes about our margin of error to secure a win, the predictions in this post leave no margin for error for anything less than a 9-5 finish if we want to dance.
Any gamblers know what Marquette's record this year has been against the spread? I'd wager that you'd be well ahead in support of the Warriors and that there will be continued opportunities to make some dough. ;)
Don't know how much weight "bad losses" carry in determining tournament worthiness but, unlike the past few years, there haven't been any to this point in the season.
Quote from: Sheriff on January 10, 2010, 09:22:08 AM
Don't know how much weight "bad losses" carry in determining tournament worthiness but, unlike the past few years, there haven't been any to this point in the season.
Let's see how NC State's season shakes out before we say that.
Quote from: Brewtown Andy on January 10, 2010, 09:31:26 AM
Let's see how NC State's season shakes out before we say that.
Agreed. They lost at home to Virginia. The tea leaves aren't promising for the Wolfpack.
Quote from: Sheriff on January 10, 2010, 09:22:08 AM
Don't know how much weight "bad losses" carry in determining tournament worthiness but, unlike the past few years, there haven't been any to this point in the season.
NC State at home is a bad loss.
For me the answer is yes, but I am reminded of what Buzz seems to say often, that the margin for error is very small for this team. If we were 2-2 or 3-1 or even 4-0, plus if we had beat FSU and/or NC St. our margin of error would be bigger, at least for getting into the tournament. As it stands now, we don't have much leeway for a surprise loss, or even a loss away at a place like Providence.
Quote from: gumbyandpokey on January 10, 2010, 09:47:35 AM
NC State at home is a bad loss.
Unless NC State turns it around, that may turn out to be the case. Just didn't think that that loss would have the same negative impact on a body of work as did the home losses to Winthrop (2006) or North Dakota St (2007).
I believe that we will need at minimum to go 9-9 in Conference to make the tourney. More likely 10-8. Those marks will give us 18 or 19 wins.
That being said, we must get at least two more quality wins over somebody like Syracuse, UCONN, or some of the other top 4 teams in the conference.
Is 10-8 achievable, considering we are now 1-3? What do others think?
Quote from: willie warrior on January 10, 2010, 10:51:57 AM
I believe that we will need at minimum to go 9-9 in Conference to make the tourney. More likely 10-8. Those marks will give us 18 or 19 wins.
That being said, we must get at least two more quality wins over somebody like Syracuse, UCONN, or some of the other top 4 teams in the conference.
Is 10-8 achievable, considering we are now 1-3? What do others think?
I'd agree with that. Two more good wins and no more bad losses and MU has a decent chance. So far, they have one good win (Georgetown) and one bad loss (NC State) that cancel each other out.
UW made the tournament last year with a 19-12 record.
The Badger's "quality wins" were Michigan twice, OSU and Illinois.
Thats it. Those are the only teams they beat that made the tourny last year yet somehow they made it.
They got blown out by UCONN . They lost 2 games to Minnesota and Purdue.
Against tournament teams they were 4-10. They didn't win even one game in the conference tourney.
Right now we have 1 or 2 wins against NCAA teams depending on what happens with Xavier. We have 5 losses against those teams. 3 of them on the road and one on a neutral site.
This idea that you need to beat top 10-15 teams on the road to get in is just silly. All bubble teams are flawed and have less then impressive resumes. The SC watches games and although moral victories don't count playing good teams close does make a difference. If it didn't we wouldn't have been a 6 seed last year because our resume of actual wins wasn't that great.
7 or 8 teams will make the tourny from the Big East. We have beat one of them already. Getting 2-3 more wins against the likes of Pitt, Cincy, ND and Louisville should put us in decent shape to squeek in as long as we get to 10 wins. 11 is a lock obviously.
If we don't beat 2 of those teams(3 of those games are at home) then we don't deserve to get in.
ps. UW also had a bad loss last year against an Iowa team that was worse then NC State is this year.
The Pac-10 being down this year could help MU's chances. The Pac-10 may only put in 2 or 3 teams at the end of the season leaving spots open for a team like MU. I'd feel a lot safer with 11 wins, though.
Quote from: MuMark on January 10, 2010, 11:37:26 AM
UW made the tournament last year with a 19-12 record.
The Badger's "quality wins" were Michigan twice, OSU and Illinois.
Thats it. Those are the only teams they beat that made the tourny last year yet somehow they made it.
They got blown out by UCONN . They lost 2 games to Minnesota and Purdue.
Against tournament teams they were 4-10. They didn't win even one game in the conference tourney.
Right now we have 1 or 2 wins against NCAA teams depending on what happens with Xavier. We have 5 losses against those teams. 3 of them on the road and one on a neutral site.
This idea that you need to beat top 10-15 teams on the road to get in is just silly. All bubble teams are flawed and have less then impressive resumes. The SC watches games and although moral victories don't count playing good teams close does make a difference. If it didn't we wouldn't have been a 6 seed last year because our resume of actual wins wasn't that great.
7 or 8 teams will make the tourny from the Big East. We have beat one of them already. Getting 2-3 more wins against the likes of Pitt, Cincy, ND and Louisville should put us in decent shape to squeek in as long as we get to 10 wins. 11 is a lock obviously.
If we don't beat 2 of those teams(3 of those games are at home) then we don't deserve to get in.
ps. UW also had a bad loss last year against an Iowa team that was worse then NC State is this year.
As I stated earlier in this thread, both UW and Michigan last year made the tourney with only 20 overall wins. That suggests that MU has a chance if they win the games their projected to win (even losing to UCONN and Syracuse).
The benefit that those teams had, that MU won't, is better SOS helping their RPI. Because the Big Televen always plays the B10/ACC challenge, their SOS and opponent SOS boosts RPI as the season goes on.
If MU ends up on the onside looking in with 19 or 20 wins, this will likely be one of the major reasons.
Quote from: mugrad2006 on January 10, 2010, 12:13:19 PM
As I stated earlier in this thread, both UW and Michigan last year made the tourney with only 20 overall wins. That suggests that MU has a chance if they win the games their projected to win (even losing to UCONN and Syracuse).
The benefit that those teams had, that MU won't, is better SOS helping their RPI. Because the Big Televen always plays the B10/ACC challenge, their SOS and opponent SOS boosts RPI as the season goes on.
If MU ends up on the onside looking in with 19 or 20 wins, this will likely be one of the major reasons.
As I said earlier in the thread, the tough losses in winnable games so far puts MU in the position where it needs to win all the games they are projected to win. But, as Buzz says, the margin for error in any one game is small--can't have foul trouble, need to hit threes, gotta force turnovers, must hit free throws--that we must still expect a surprise loss. Hell, even Depaul could shock us the way South Florida did in the past. If we were at least 2-2 so far, and if we hadn't lost the nailbiters out of conference, we wouldn't be in the position where we can't have any disappointing losses.
Buzz says that our margin for error in each game is small, and each loss--whether a moral victory or no--makes the margin of error for the season smaller.
UW made the tourny with 19 wins not 20. One of those wins was against SIU Ewardsville(non D 1) which didn't count as far as the RPI is concerned.
So they had 18 real wins entering the tournament.
How many potential bad losses are still on the MU schedule?
Providence @ home, @Depaul, Depaul @ home, Rutgers @ home, South Florida @ home.
I don't think any BE road loss (except Depaul) could be counted as a bad one.
MU gets these 5, splits the remaining 6 road games (PC, UCONN, 'Cuse, St. Johns, Cincy, SH), then splits the final two @ home ('Ville and ND) should be enough.
But what the crap do I know.
For whomever asked, MU is 6-4 ATS this season.
Xavier +5 won by 10
Mich +1 won by 14
FSU Pk lost by 1
NC St -10 lost by 4
Shorewood St -14 won by 20
Rodents +5.5 lost by 9
WV +12 lost by 1
Nova home PK lost by 2
Gtown - 1.5 won by 3
Nova road +8.5 lost by 2
9-9 seems to me the minimum required to be considered for an at-large heading into the BET. If 9-9 into BET, I'd say one win keeps MU on the bubble (depends on how good mid-major conference champions fare in their conference tourney's, how the other BCS conferences play out), two puts MU in pretty good shape, three is a lock.
10-8 is the true bubble land. I'd say that at a minimum gets them on the bubble. One win in the BET gets them into pretty good shape at that point. I'd say 11-7 puts them in regardless of results in the BET.
Summary ... I'd say any tally of 11 Big East wins between the conference tourney and the regular season would be enough, assuming at least .500 in the regular season.
Now, where to find those 10 more wins ...
Likely wins - PC, DU, Rutgers, USF. Gets MU 4 of the necessary 10.
Means MU would need to take care of business in those 4 and win 6 of the other 10 - at DU, at cuse, at UConn (I'm not totally dismissing MU winning one of those 2 with as competitive as they've been at WVU and nova), at PC, Pitt, at UC, at SJU, at Hall, U of L, ND
Breaking that 10 down farther home and road, likely need one of these combos - 3-0 at home; 3-4 on road (overall 8-1 at home, 3-6 on road); 2-1 at home, 4-3 on road (overall 7-2 at home, 4-5 on road, seems the most likely to me).
Assuming the 4 likely wins above, I'd say it'll take one of the following two scenarios to get the 11 BE wins.
Beat Pitt, U of L and ND at home, beat 3 of 7 DU, cuse, UConn, PC, UC, SJU, Hall on road
Beat 2 of the aforementioned 3 at home, beat 4 of the aforementioned 6 on the road.
I'm honestly not sure we're going to know a ton more about MU's tourney status 5 1/2 weeks from now than we do now. I think MU is something like 7-5 heading into its final 6, with most of them against teams at or near the bubble.
BTW, MU currently is 46th in conference RPI on Jerry Palm's site due to the strength of schedule and one quality win so far. Xavier right now is a good win; TBD if it stays that way. You would hope the NC State loss won't turn out to be a bad one with the strength of the ACC pulling the Wolfpack up, but that is a possibility. NC State is currently 118 in the RPI.
One last note; profiles in the past with the combo of a good road win and a bad home loss seem to have been viewed better than a profile with no good road wins but also no bad home losses.