Big East Conference Results

[NotAnAlum]

I'm not quite that confident. Our RPI is still in the triple digits. NIT uses that same as the NCAAs. Buzz' last year we got left out with an RPI in the 90s.

I'm optimistic.  I don't think we win at Butler without HE but assuming he is back by St J, we beat them and lose to X then we have a record of 20-13 in a power conference I would think we get in.  Remember Buzz's last team was 17-15 and riding a 4 game losing streak on selection Sunday.  That is a lot different than 20 wins.  While the NIT may claim they use the RPI they are still interested in what teams will create local ticket sales and attractive television.  I've seen a lot of hard to defend NIT selections or seeds that seemed to be motivated buy factors other than simply the strongest team.  Should also make a difference if the BC is available.  Again its all about that gate, bout that gate.

[The Lens]

If we win Saturday and make some enough noise in the BET to be a legit bubble team (per Lunardi's definition), we're dancing.  I can't see the NCAA letting a bubble team with a legitimate lottery pick be televised in someone else's tournament.

*takes blue and gold glasses off*

The NCAA owns the NIT.  They bought it from 5 NYC area schools in the past 10 years.  That's why you have the new rule about regular season champs make the NIT.  This new NIT gives solid competition.  If you end up playing a Conf Champ?  That's a good game.  Plus it's weeded out the Names for Money, not all but more than usual. 

[BM1090]

W vs butler
W vs providence
W vs nova
L vs Xavier

In or out ? It'd be almost criminal to take providence and butler over us seeing as that would put us 5-0 over them.

Probably out. But it'd give us a puncher's chance. 40% probably? If you get wins over SHU and X instead of PC and Nova I think it goes up to about 55%

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Probably out. But it'd give us a puncher's chance. 40% probably? If you get wins over SHU and X instead of PC and Nova I think it goes up to about 55%

Exactly. Have to hope for bubble teams from other conferences to lose early to locks or to bad teams.

[BM1090]

Exactly. Have to hope for bubble teams from other conferences to lose early to locks or to bad teams.

Honestly, we're out to a good start on this front. Alabama lost a home game to Arkansas last night. Oregon State lost to USC (doesn't hurt too much but avoided a good win). Creighton lost, they're done now. Georgia Tech and Clemson both failed to pick up good wins the night before.

The only one that kind of hurts is St. Bonaventure beating St. Joes but there will most likely be an opportunity for them to get a bad loss in the A10 tournament or at SLU this weekend.

For me, I'm enjoying still somewhat being in the conversation, but I'm not going to take it seriously until Saturday. If we win on Saturday I think we have a great shot in the 4/5 game and then all it takes is one great performance against Nova to give us a chance.

Stanford @ Arizona State, Cincy @ Houston, and UCONN @ SMU would be the three games to keep an eye on tonight.

[SaveOD238]

In or out ? It'd be almost criminal to take providence and butler over us seeing as that would put us 5-0 over them.

This is the best stat we have going for us right now...especially if we win Saturday

[BM1090]

Honestly, we're out to a good start on this front. Alabama lost a home game to Arkansas last night. Oregon State lost to USC (doesn't hurt too much but avoided a good win). Creighton lost, they're done now. Georgia Tech and Clemson both failed to pick up good wins the night before.

The only one that kind of hurts is St. Bonaventure beating St. Joes but there will most likely be an opportunity for them to get a bad loss in the A10 tournament or at SLU this weekend.

For me, I'm enjoying still somewhat being in the conversation, but I'm not going to take it seriously until Saturday. If we win on Saturday I think we have a great shot in the 4/5 game and then all it takes is one great performance against Nova to give us a chance.

Stanford @ Arizona State, Cincy @ Houston, and UCONN @ SMU would be the three games to keep an eye on tonight.

Bubble teams 0-3 tonight barring a 20 point Stanford comeback in the next 10 minutes. It's kind of comical how wide open it is at the bottom of the bracket.

[MU82]

Bubble teams 0-3 tonight barring a 20 point Stanford comeback in the next 10 minutes. It's kind of comical how wide open it is at the bottom of the bracket.

We've got a chance!

[forgetful]

Funny thing is, we have as many top 50 wins (4) as any team in the SEC.  And more top 50 wins than any team in the A10, AAC. 

We also have more top 50 wins than UNC, Pitt, Michigan, and Ohio State, teams that are considered on the bubble or in.

I realize we had a crappy schedule, but we've also proven ourselves against the top 50 better than many of the teams considered in, or on the bubble.

[jsglow]

Funny thing is, we have as many top 50 wins (4) as any team in the SEC.  And more top 50 wins than any team in the A10, AAC. 

We also have more top 50 wins than UNC, Pitt, Michigan, and Ohio State, teams that are considered on the bubble or in.

I realize we had a crappy schedule, but we've also proven ourselves against the top 50 better than many of the teams considered in, or on the bubble.

That's what I keep thinking.  Assuming we win our way to the BEast championship game and then lose we will be 7-8 against RPI Top 50.  Is it really plausible that such a team will be kept out when their very worst loss is to a RPI 175ish DePaul?  Has a 22 win BEast team EVER been denied?  It simply can't matter that we played the 7th place SWAC team rather than the 6th place Horizon team.  That RPI calc simply seems like bullcrap to me.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Didn't Gottlieb or Lundardi say RPI probably means the least this year than in any other season?

[bilsu]

Funny thing is, we have as many top 50 wins (4) as any team in the SEC.  And more top 50 wins than any team in the A10, AAC. 

We also have more top 50 wins than UNC, Pitt, Michigan, and Ohio State, teams that are considered on the bubble or in.

I realize we had a crappy schedule, but we've also proven ourselves against the top 50 better than many of the teams considered in, or on the bubble.

That is good if we can get in the bubble consideration. The problem is getting the NCAA to look at us vs. other teams on the bubble.

[Coleman]

That's what I keep thinking.  Assuming we win our way to the BEast championship game and then lose we will be 7-8 against RPI Top 50.  Is it really plausible that such a team will be kept out when their very worst loss is to a RPI 175ish DePaul?  Has a 22 win BEast team EVER been denied?  It simply can't matter that we played the 7th place SWAC team rather than the 6th place Horizon team.  That RPI calc simply seems like bullcrap to me.

I don't disagree with you (mostly), but I think it is silly to ask if a 22 win Big East team has ever been denied a bid, when this league is essentially in its 3rd season. It is apples and oranges comparing records with the old Big East.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Didn't Gottlieb or Lundardi say RPI probably means the least this year than in any other season?

Yes. But they say that every year. And every year, RPI seems to be the main factor.

[BM1090]

Yes. But they say that every year. And every year, RPI seems to be the main factor.

Eh. It has less of an effect last year. Especially on seeding.

[forgetful]

That's what I keep thinking.  Assuming we win our way to the BEast championship game and then lose we will be 7-8 against RPI Top 50.  Is it really plausible that such a team will be kept out when their very worst loss is to a RPI 175ish DePaul?  Has a 22 win BEast team EVER been denied?  It simply can't matter that we played the 7th place SWAC team rather than the 6th place Horizon team.  That RPI calc simply seems like bullcrap to me.

I agree.  I think we need to at least make it to the BEast championship.  That will force us to be at least looked at.

I think if we get a fair look, our chances go up considerably.

Now, getting to the BEast championship is another issue.

[Herman Cain]

Every year they interview the chairman of the committe that picks the NCAA field. Each time they talk about the overall body of work etc. They publish a whole set of criteria, rpi is one of many points considered.

 At the end of the day if MU gets in the discussion of the bubble teams  we will have as strong a chance as anyone. First,we have to get  in the bubble conversation by winning Saturday and then winning at least one more game in the BET.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Yes. But they say that every year. And every year, RPI seems to be the main factor.

Obviously our RPI numbers don't do us any favors, but I do think the committee recognizes the flaws of RPI / SOS and weight it less due to that.  My concern is really none of our computer numbers are strong - our Kenpom ranking sucks too. Not sure beating Butler then Providence is going to change those enough to be passable. 

[BM1090]

Obviously our RPI numbers don't do us any favors, but I do think the committee recognizes the flaws of RPI / SOS and weight it less due to that.  My concern is really none of our computer numbers are strong - our Kenpom ranking sucks too. Not sure beating Butler then Providence is going to change those enough to be passable.

Probably not, but beating Butler, Providence and Villanova would probably have us up in the 60's in KenPom. We're 9 point underdogs in his system against Butler, so we would jump quite a bit if we won. Probably up from 96 to 85 or so. Then beating providence on a neutral court would probably get us 5 or 6 spots. Beating Nova would be the one that gets us up into the territory that we need to be in.

Two wins won't cut it for a bid or computer numbers. 3 wins might.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

RPI Wizard has MU's RPI/SOS at 75/66 with wins at Butler, v. Providence, v. Nova, Loss to X. This is about a 10 point drop in projected RPI from when I ran this earlier this week.  Don't think thats gonna be enough to get MU in the coversation - but hopefully, like others have said, they notice due to MU's run to the BET final and then take a closer look at their schedule and wins v. top 50.

Hopefully some of our previous opponents make some noise in the next week as well. 

[BM1090]

RPI Wizard has MU's RPI/SOS at 75/66 with wins at Butler, v. Providence, v. Nova, Loss to X. This is about a 10 point drop in projected RPI from when I ran this earlier this week.  Don't think thats gonna be enough to get MU in the coversation - but hopefully, like others have said, they notice due to MU's run to the BET final and then take a closer look at their schedule and wins v. top 50.

Hopefully some of our previous opponents make some noise in the next week as well.

Here's the issue I have with RPI/Committee/really the whole process. Let's say this scenario plays out. We end up 7-8 against the top 50. 22-12 overall. When the committee talks about scheduling they are always stressing "play somebody, beat somebody". We would have more top 50 wins than almost everyone in the field. The issue wouldn't be "playing or beating somebody".  We'd have done that. We'd have accomplished that more than most teams in the country. Not only that, but we would have less "bad losses" than most tournament teams as well.

The sole issue would be the cupcakes. I'm biased, but I think we have a good shot in this scenario. Even in our non conference schedule we played 2 top 50 opponents and 3 more top 100 opponents. Our schedule wasn't soft. The soft cupcakes were just extra soft. I think that can be overlooked.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Here's the issue I have with RPI/Committee/really the whole process. Let's say this scenario plays out. We end up 7-8 against the top 50. 22-12 overall. When the committee talks about scheduling they are always stressing "play somebody, beat somebody". We would have more top 50 wins than almost everyone in the field. The issue wouldn't be "playing or beating somebody".  We'd have done that. We'd have accomplished that more than most teams in the country. Not only that, but we would have less "bad losses" than most tournament teams as well.

The sole issue would be the cupcakes. I'm biased, but I think we have a good shot in this scenario. Even in our non conference schedule we played 2 top 50 opponents and 3 more top 100 opponents. Our schedule wasn't soft. The soft cupcakes were just extra soft. I think that can be overlooked.

I completely agree.  But its not something you want to make a habit of relying on.  If MU were to rattle off three more in a row here (far from a certainty), and finds themselves in the BET final - obviously I hope they win it - but if not, and they end up in the tourney anyway, this should be a lesson.  If this scenario plays out, and MU is left out of the big dance, they have no one to blame but themselves for their scheduling.  As we've all been saying all year, Broeker, Wojo and Co., gave this team very little room for error with the schedule.

Spilled milk, water under the bridge, etc., etc., but hopefully the lesson has been learned. Too good of a program to be playing the dregs of the NCAA.

[real chili 83]

I agree.  I think we need to at least make it to the BEast championship.  That will force us to be at least looked at.

I think if we get a fair look, our chances go up considerably.

Now, getting to the BEast championship is another issue.

If we get to that point, I contend we get in.  The NCAA wants TV sets tuned into watching a lottery pick.

I seem to remember the NCAA letting Oneil in the first time without a tremendous RPI.  They said the berth was a reward for the effort and improvement the coach and team showed that year.  Wojo may just fit that bill if the team makes it to the BET finals.

[brewcity77]

Yes. But they say that every year. And every year, RPI seems to be the main factor.

+1

Until Gottlieb and Lunardi are on the committee, those comments mean squat. The lowest RPI team to make the field last year was Indiana at 63. Anyone saying RPI is less of a factor in inclusion isn't paying attention.

I'll agree they are doing a better job of using other metrics to seed, but it's tough to get in without a good enough RPI. All the more reason this Selection Sunday will likely be a disappointment, because we do have a comparable resume to most teams on the bubble once you look past the RPI/SOS numbers.

[WarriorPride68]

Funny thing is, we have as many top 50 wins (4) as any team in the SEC.  And more top 50 wins than any team in the A10, AAC. 

We also have more top 50 wins than UNC, Pitt, Michigan, and Ohio State, teams that are considered on the bubble or in.

Per RPI Forecast...

MU is 0-4 vs the top 25 in RPI

4-3 vs 26-50 in RPI

those 4 wins are Providence X2, Butler & UW I'm guessing?

4-7 vs RPI top 50 (0-4 top 25) & then 9-0 vs RPI 200+

Edit- sounds like Butler might be the 4th?