New Big East Schools May Rejoin Their Old Conferences

[TallTitan34]

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8653727/boise-state-broncos-sdsu-aztecs-byu-cougars-talk-mwc-return-sources-say

Boise State, San Diego State and BYU have had conversations with Mountain West membership about the possibility of returning to the league, sources told ESPN.

Even though Boise State and San Diego State don't join the Big East until July 1, 2013, the schools would have to pay an exit fee to get out of their contract. Both schools signed contracts with the Big East on Dec. 6, 2011, with a $5 million buyout, but that amount was increased to $10 million in January when Navy announced it was joining the league in 2015.

[JoBo2756]

what a mess...

For all the talk about Marquette being totally screwed, what do you think Boise State, TCU, BYU and San Diego State fans think/thought about the Big East. They must hate it.

[JoBo2756]

Not to say that we aren't totally screwed in the long term... the jury is still out on that one.

[MerrittsMustache]

Let 'em go.

[Niv Berkowitz]

Nope. We are screwed, i think. Whem the music stips and everyone has grabbed their chairs, i think MU will be left holding its jock.

[chapman]

Good.  More schools that would care enough to impose an exit fee when we leave. 

[ecompt]

By the time these schools leave, we'll have enough exit money to pay our own exit fee. Hello, A-10.

[honkytonk]

The BE's greatest revenue source seems to be exit fees. 

[JoBo2756]

The BE's greatest revenue source seems to be exit fees.  

Yea, I was thinking that too. Who needs a big TV contract when all the schools keep leaving... Maybe if we wait until everyone leaves the Big East, we'll get all the money and we can use it to start a football team.  

Let's make some unnatural carnal knowledgeing lemonade.

[brewcity77]

When did BYU become a "new Big East school"?

[Tugg Speedman]

Nope. We are screwed, i think. Whem the music stips and everyone has grabbed their chairs, i think MU will be left holding its jock.

100% wrong.  The schools that are screwed are mid-tier football schools trying to find a home.  A decent basketball only school will find always find a good home.  If we took the advice of this board and spent a huge sum to start a lousy football team, we would be much worse off.

Restated, we are as screwed as Georgetown, Villanova, St' Johns, Providence, etc.

[Tugg Speedman]

Nope. We are screwed, i think. Whem the music stips and everyone has grabbed their chairs, i think MU will be left holding its jock.

One more thing ... the music is never going to stop.  Conference realignment will be a constant for many many years.  It will only stop when college football losing its popularity, if/when that ever happens.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8653727/boise-state-broncos-sdsu-aztecs-byu-cougars-talk-mwc-return-sources-say

Boise State, San Diego State and BYU have had conversations with Mountain West membership about the possibility of returning to the league, sources told ESPN.

Even though Boise State and San Diego State don't join the Big East until July 1, 2013, the schools would have to pay an exit fee to get out of their contract. Both schools signed contracts with the Big East on Dec. 6, 2011, with a $5 million buyout, but that amount was increased to $10 million in January when Navy announced it was joining the league in 2015.

They need to have a plan B.  The remnants of the Big East conference they thought they were joining looks like it won't be there.

What bothers me most is why didn't these conferences just go to 14-16 teams in the first place and get the shuffling all over with at once.  It's disgusting.  The Big East Marquette joined was great while it lasted now we just have to wait for the carosel stops spinning.

[Abode4life]

One more thing ... the music is never going to stop.  Conference realignment will be a constant for many many years.  It will only stop when college football losing its popularity, if/when that ever happens.

Or it will only stop for us when we get in a bball only league.....

[Avenue Commons]

Nope. We are screwed, i think. Whem the music stips and everyone has grabbed their chairs, i think MU will be left holding its jock.

All of the non-football schools in the Big East will be left out. Simple logic dictates that the football schools won't want to share football revenue with the "basketball"schools. However, DePaul, St Johns, Marquette and Georgetown are formidable institutions that carry massive political clout in key American areas. Our Catholic brethren and us will weather this storm. A Catholic League with the BE schools, Dayton, St Joes, SLU etc is starting to make a great deal of sense.

Even if that happens, I'll always be thankful for our time in the Big East. It came on the back end of D Wade and a Final 4 run. That momentum alone was a big part of the program being where it is today.

[brewcity77]

Even if that happens, I'll always be thankful for our time in the Big East. It came on the back end of D Wade and a Final 4 run. That momentum alone was a big part of the program being where it is today.

The problem is the bigger picture. The Big East is a big part of our ENTIRE athletic program being where it is today. Our soccer programs likely aren't both getting NCAA berths or nearly as good. Our women's volleyball isn't on the verge of their second tourney berth in 3 years. Our women's basketball team has had some success. Our lacrosse programs exist. All of that is because of the Big East. And sadly, if the Big East goes away, so does the monster television contract.

We get around $1.6M per year as a member of the Big East. The exposure it gets us is probably worth double that. Put us in the A-10 and you can cut that check by 75% or more. That will mean wholesale cutting of many Olympic sports. And for the sports we keep, we certainly won't be able to justify the long-distance trips we're taking now. Where do we go? The MVC? The Horizon?

That's one thing many people haven't been thinking about. A basketball-only conference with basketball-only television contracts likely means losing a lot of non-basketball sports. It's not a golden goose. At absolute best, it's a brass one.

[bilsu]

All of the non-football schools in the Big East will be left out. Simple logic dictates that the football schools won't want to share football revenue with the "basketball"schools. However, DePaul, St Johns, Marquette and Georgetown are formidable institutions that carry massive political clout in key American areas. Our Catholic brethren and us will weather this storm. A Catholic League with the BE schools, Dayton, St Joes, SLU etc is starting to make a great deal of sense.

Even if that happens, I'll always be thankful for our time in the Big East. It came on the back end of D Wade and a Final 4 run. That momentum alone was a big part of the program being where it is today.

Why would those A-10 schools leave the A-10 for a smaller Catholic league? The Big East going to implode and there is going to be one less conference for basketball. MU should be pro active and move to A-10 now before they have to settle for Horizon league.

[Tugg Speedman]

All of the non-football schools in the Big East will be left out. Simple logic dictates that the football schools won't want to share football revenue with the "basketball"schools. However, DePaul, St Johns, Marquette and Georgetown are formidable institutions that carry massive political clout in key American areas. Our Catholic brethren and us will weather this storm. A Catholic League with the BE schools, Dayton, St Joes, SLU etc is starting to make a great deal of sense.

Even if that happens, I'll always be thankful for our time in the Big East. It came on the back end of D Wade and a Final 4 run. That momentum alone was a big part of the program being where it is today.

This is 100% wrong.

To believe this you have to assume that basketball is a non-revenue sport and we need to be in a football conference to pay for basketball.

Basketball is a revenue sport.  Marquette makes money (millions) playing basketball.  At some point these conferences will stop poaching footballs schools and look to other sources of revenue.  Basketball will head this list.

Be patient.

[Aughnanure]

Why would those A-10 schools leave the A-10 for a smaller Catholic league?The Big East going to implode and there is going to be one less conference for basketball. MU should be pro active and move to A-10 now before they have to settle for Horizon league.

This is why we aren't going to just join the A10 (and why A10 powers would want to partner):

Saint Joseph's   
St. Bonaventure   
George Washington   
La Salle   
Duquesne   
Fordham   
Rhode Island

[Tugg Speedman]

Why would those A-10 schools leave the A-10 for a smaller Catholic league? The Big East going to implode and there is going to be one less conference for basketball. MU should be pro active and move to A-10 now before they have to settle for Horizon league.

Yet another incorrect view of the world.  Again, basketball makes money and MU can field a top flight team.  Be patient.  Once the conferences are done killing each other over football they will turn their attention to basketball and we will be an attractive property.  It might be a few more years.

This board should drop this subject and stick with what it does best ... incorrectly ANLAYzing Vander's game.

[WarriorDoc]

This is why we aren't going to just join the A10 (and why A10 powers would want to partner):

Saint Joseph's   
St. Bonaventure   
George Washington   
La Salle   
Duquesne   
Fordham   
Rhode Island

Exactly, all of those teams would jump in a second to partner with Marquette and Georgetown--but why are we jumping to partner with them?

Even a conference with A-10 powers like Xavier, Dayton, St. Louis, And Butler (who would also be jumping to partner with Nova, Marquette, St John's, etc) is a downgrade for us.  We need to hang onto what we have until it dissolves or doesn't make sense for us to be a part of anymore in terms of dollars.

[ChicosBailBonds]

This is 100% wrong.

To believe this you have to assume that basketball is a non-revenue sport and we need to be in a football conference to pay for basketball.

Basketball is a revenue sport.  Marquette makes money (millions) playing basketball.  At some point these conferences will stop poaching footballs schools and look to other sources of revenue.  Basketball will head this list.

Be patient.

The amount of revenue that b-ball schools bring in is like a gnat to an elephant compared to football. 

Besides, when you can't isolate basketball on its own.  The profit men's hoops makes pays for all the other sports at MU.  The television contracts are tied to football with basketball being a very small portion of it.  Yes, there is value, but enough for football conference to take on basketball only schools?  We'll see.  I definitely don't see it with the Big Ten.  Maybe some of the others, but I have strong doubts about it.  The upside isn't there for these conferences to do this and create the problems with their football members. 

[Big Papi]

Its too bad some of the Big East schools can't wait to leave.  If they were a strong cohesive unit and held their ground, there is a possibility that the ACC gets raided some more and loses 3-4 more teams (two out of three of Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech to ACC and North Carolina to Big 10). Then the ACC and the Big East could look into combining into one mega conference of their own but Louisville can't wait to jump to the Big 12 and you can't blame them for that and UConn will jump to the ACC (why jump into a sinking ship) so what little leverage the Big East has is gone.

My take, life boats are filling up fast and the ACC will lose more programs.  The four major conferences are Big 10, Pac 10, Big 12 and the SEC.  16 teams in each conference is inevitable. The 4 major conferences will not be hybrid conferences.  Notre Dame made a mistake going to the ACC but they are Notre Dame and they will always have a seat with the big boys if they want it but they will have to act again real soon and decide between the Big 12 and the Big 10. 

After the BIG 64 is set, the rest will be left to pick up the pieces and form appropriate conferences for their schools own good.  The BIG 64 will have stability within the next 24 months and the rest will be left scrambling for awhile. 

Geographic conferences will make more sense for the rest to keep costs down since TV revenues will be a lot less.  Lots of football schools outside the BIG 64 will drop to a lower division level football or just drop football in general.  Hello Marquette, Depaul, Cincinnati, Memphis, Butler and about 5 other midwestern schools in the Great Midwest league.  Schools like Memphis and Cincinnati will end up giving up their football programs as again expenses will greatly outweigh revenues.  We will eventually have stability within 5 years and all will be good, at least I hope so.

[brewcity77]

My take, life boats are filling up fast and the ACC will lose more programs.

Agreed. I think UNC, Georgia Tech, FSU, and Clemson are all being targeted by the Big 4, and it wouldn't surprise me if Virginia, Va Tech, and NC State are being eyed up as well. Be curious to see if anyone is in for Duke...there hasn't been much interest of late in the smaller private schools without viable football programs.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

A spot on opinion piece from the New Haven Register's sport's columnist, Chip Malafronte.  

http://www.nhregister.com/articles/2012/11/20/sports/doc50aac7f4a8195679537391.txt?viewmode=fullstory


CHIP MALAFRONTE: Big East Conference looks like it's a goner

By Chip Malafronte, Register Sports Columnist
cmalafronte@nhregister.com / Twitter: @ChipMalafronte


She hung on like a champ. A true battler. Even in the face of unrelenting hardship, it looked like the old girl might even pull through.

But frankly, it was only a matter of time.

The Big East Conference, for all intents and purposes, is a goner.

If the events of the past couple of days haven’t sealed her fate, the inevitable announcements about to come surely will. Maryland, we learned Monday, is headed for the Big Ten. Rutgers will bail and join the Terrapins today, according to reports.

The death blow will be delivered with the next round of defections. The Atlantic Coast Conference needs someone to replace Maryland. UConn is an obvious choice. Louisville, it appears, is under serious consideration, too.

Boise State and San Diego State, ESPN reports, are discussing a return to the Mountain West Conference rather than go through with plans to join the Big East and its rapidly diminishing football conference.

The seismic shift of conference realignment continues to rumble. We’re not finished with plundering. Not by a long shot. Rumors were fierce on Monday. What if Florida State and Clemson are the next objects of affection? Their replacements would be pilfered from, well, where else?

It’s a rapidly changing new world of super-conferences and mega television contracts, and the Big East is helpless. It has been rendered irrelevant.

Football, it’s been said over and over again, drives the athletic bus. The Big East never earned much respect from the rest of the country in that regard, even when it fared well for itself in the 1990s and 2000s.

Now, it will soon be stuck in mid-major purgatory, if it survives at all. It’s unfair. It’s underhanded. It’s a classic smash and grab job as the rich get richer. And there’s nothing the little guys can do to avoid being victims. Again.

UConn is a charter member of the Big East. Since joining in 1979, it has won multiple national championships in men’s and women’s basketball. Not long after upgrading to the big time in football, the Huskies won the league’s automatic bid to the BCS and wound up playing Oklahoma in the 2011 Fiesta Bowl.

From an athletic standpoint, UConn owes everything to the Big East. Yet loyalty has little meaning now. Consider: the Huskies were the new kids in the Big East football party when they joined in 2004. With the loss of Rutgers, they will be football’s elder statesmen. Eight years is roughly the shelf life of a football coach. But a football program? If it seems crazy, that’s because it is crazy.

UConn has dejectedly watched its brethren jump ship while it was passed over again and again. West Virginia left for the Big XII. Syracuse and Pittsburgh are leaving next season for the ACC. And now Rutgers, which, even in perhaps its finest football season, still ranks below every professional franchise in the city when it comes to New York sports, is about to enter the rarefied air of Buckeyes, the Big House and the big television money of the Big Ten network.

UConn president Susan Herbst, athletic director Warde Manuel and the entire board of trustees began lobbying for a way out to ensure the program can continue its rich history of success.

Those prayers, if some reports are accurate, might soon be answered. The news regarding the ACC’s next move shuttled in throughout the day Monday. Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury-News, plugged in to the expansion scene, said an invitation for UConn to the ACC could arrive as soon as Tuesday.

Make no mistake, if and when the ACC comes calling, UConn won’t waste a nanosecond to accept. Imagine a steady diet of Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina and Duke passing through Greater Hartford, while remaining and rekindling regional rivalries with Syracuse, Pitt and Boston College (remember them?) It’s a heck of a lot more appealing then Temple, Central Florida and Southern Methodist.

The reality is the Huskies need that invitation to survive. The UConn brand, both athletically and academically, makes it a perfect fit in the ACC. An invitation makes sense.

No matter what happens, the future of a once great conference is clear.

So long, Big East. Thanks for the memories.

To receive breaking news first, simply text the word nhsports to 22700. *Msg & Data Rates May Apply. Text HELP for help. Text STOP to cancel.

[GGGG]

If UConn leaves, the only Big East football program located in the northeast will be Temple.

[Tugg Speedman]

The amount of revenue that b-ball schools bring in is like a gnat to an elephant compared to football. 

Last I checked the Tourney is valued over a billion dollars.  That does not include the conference tourneys, the TV deals and gates from basketball.  Yes football is much larger but it's still enough money that it will matter.  Not now, however, as the football arms race is in full force.

[Dawson Rental]

Yet another incorrect view of the world.  Again, basketball makes money and MU can field a top flight team.  Be patient.  Once the conferences are done killing each other over football they will turn their attention to basketball and we will be an attractive property.  It might be a few more years.

This board should drop this subject and stick with what it does best ... incorrectly ANLAYzing Vander's game.

If you meant to point out that "anal" is a part of analyzing, you should have spelled analyzing correctly and you shouldn't have capitalized the "Y".  Perhaps you post in too much of a hurry.

[Tugg Speedman]

Besides, when you can't isolate basketball on its own.  The profit men's hoops makes pays for all the other sports at MU.  The television contracts are tied to football with basketball being a very small portion of it.  Yes, there is value, but enough for football conference to take on basketball only schools?  We'll see.  I definitely don't see it with the Big Ten.  Maybe some of the others, but I have strong doubts about it.  The upside isn't there for these conferences to do this and create the problems with their football members. 

Sure you can isolate the basketball revenues.  Until now it has never been an issue.  When it becomes an issue, it will be properly isolated and the value of a non-football school can be determined.

[Hards Alumni]

Last I checked the Tourney is valued over a billion dollars.  That does not include the conference tourneys, the TV deals and gates from basketball.  Yes football is much larger but it's still enough money that it will matter.  Not now, however, as the football arms race is in full force.

Right, plus money is money.  We will have no say, but we will be the icing on the cake of a conference.

[GGGG]

Last I checked the Tourney is valued over a billion dollars.  That does not include the conference tourneys, the TV deals and gates from basketball.  Yes football is much larger but it's still enough money that it will matter.  Not now, however, as the football arms race is in full force.

But the tournament money doesn't go directly to the schools.  Most of it is retained by the NCAA.  Chicos was speaking specifically about the money made on regular season television contracts.

[Tugg Speedman]

But the tournament money doesn't go directly to the schools.  Most of it is retained by the NCAA.  Chicos was speaking specifically about the money made on regular season television contracts.

When the urgency of football realignment cools a bit, they will look to take this away from the NCAA like they did football. 

Then basketball schools will be divvied up in this mix.

We'll be fine ... good thing we don't have a crappy D1-aa football program as an anchor around our neck.

[bilsu]

I am just happy this happened after signing date. Now that we have our class signed, I am not going to worry about this.

[Aughnanure]

When the urgency of football realignment cools a bit, they will look to take this away from the NCAA like they did football.  

Then basketball schools will be divvied up in this mix.

We'll be fine ... good thing we don't have a crappy D1-aa football program as an anchor around our neck.

I understand the theory that the top 4 conferences will go to 16 and split completely from the NCAA and the rest of D1 football is gaining momentum. But it's just not as easy and realistic as everyone thinks. 64 teams (which is LESS than the 6 BCS conferences + Notre Dame had before realignment) leaves out too many schools and states that won't take too kindly to being told they can't compete (even in their dream scenario) for a championship. Add in to the fact that these conferences are also major players in divvying up grant and research money to the academics of these schools - and you will soon find a lot of states that aren't going to be too happy...and they'll have a pretty good argument on the monopoly/antitrust issues.

Now, I certainly think d1 football is going to get consolidated. But it's gotta include a model more like 4x20 - which gets 80 schools and more states. Somehow the leftover programs (like Boise, Houston) will find their way in - but at what role? Will a combined/consolidated Mountain West and Conf USA stick around as the 5th conference (with considerably less powers)?

For basketball, this will get even more complex and controversial. I can see them dwindling the number of D1 bball teams down to 150 or something (and they should, 365 is stupid), but the BCS schools won't just be able to pick up their ball and go home that easy.

[Aughnanure]

I know this guy throws a lot of crap against the wall, but his general movement has been accurate.

So this is interesting
MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Georgetown and Nova in talks with Atlantic 10

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Uconn has informed Big East they are preparing to move to the ACC

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Clemson and FSU are making a final push for the SEC. The B12 awaits...

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
15 schools have contacted the B12 offices since Yesterday morning. Schools spanning coast to coast

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Espn has told Swofford that the conference should brace itself and have 4-6 replacement schools at the ready. Suggested adds UH, SMU,USF,UC

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
My sources are saying UNC UVA have emerged as the Big 10s next 2 targets. GT will have to wait. Delaney wants contiguous state lines

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
UNC has apparently rethought their options. Duke officials are aware of the situation and are livid. Duke contacted B12 this morning

[T-Bone]

One more thing ... the music is never going to stop.  Conference realignment will be a constant for many many years.  It will only stop when college football losing its popularity, if/when that ever happens.

I see it stopping once the folks in DC decide to investigate the NCAA, ESPN, BCS, and everything else going on with college sports. 

[Groin_pull]

I am just happy this happened after signing date. Now that we have our class signed, I am not going to worry about this.

Those LOIs are not iron-clad contracts. If Buzz moves on, each of the players would be granted their release.

[GGGG]

I see it stopping once the folks in DC decide to investigate the NCAA, ESPN, BCS, and everything else going on with college sports. 

....and what exactly do you think they will find that's illegal?

[Groin_pull]

UNC to the Big 10?    Unreal. If that happens, I will truly have seen it all. Can't imagine UNC not being in a conference with Duke, NC State, etc.

We're looking at four mega conferences: Pac-12...Big XII...SEC...and Big 10. The rest will scramble for the scraps and be irrelevant. Hoops-only schools must hope that eventually these mega conferences...in their endless quest for more dollars....turn their attention to the basketball schools. These hoops schools would be the little brothers in the conference. They wouldn't get full shares of revenue—but at least they'd get a (small) seat at the table.

If not, it's on to the A-10...which could soon see itself flooded with applicants.

Either way, MU alums and fans will need to readjust their expectations. MU will now be closer to UW-Milwaukee than UW-Madison.

Bottom line: this sucks.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Last I checked the Tourney is valued over a billion dollars.  That does not include the conference tourneys, the TV deals and gates from basketball.  Yes football is much larger but it's still enough money that it will matter.  Not now, however, as the football arms race is in full force.

Close on the money, I know because we helped pay into that system.  Mike Aresco, our commissioner in the Big East, engineered that deal at CBS.  $10.8 billion over 14 years.

Here's the problem, that television deal funds almost everything for the NCAA. 96% of their revenues on a yearly basis are funded back into the schools while the other 4% goes to admin costs for the NCAA. All the championships for Divisions I through III, men and women, administration, etc.  The football money, most of it, doesn't go to the NCAA.  At the end of the day, the television contract for the NCAA basketball tournament is important to the extent that successful teams get a cut of the pie in the form of revenue units, but that number in the grand scheme of things is actually quite small to the bottom line of a football program.

As an example, each of those units is worth about $240K and the farther you advance, the more units you earn.  That money is actually sent to the conferences and divided up based on the conference revenue sharing plan. 

I'm merely pointing out that the dollars involved on a per school basis from men's basketball aren't what most people think because of how the money is spent.  Only about $185 million even goes into the Basketball Fund, the rest of the dollars are spent on the academic enhancement funds, grant in aid scholarships, running the championships, student assistance fund, etc.

[bilsu]

Those LOIs are not iron-clad contracts. If Buzz moves on, each of the players would be granted their release.

I realize that, but I do not think Buzz is leaving. Also, while MU has been good about releasing players, they do not have to release them. I doubt that MU will release a player that wants to leave, because the Big East is not the Big East anymore.

[bilsu]

I know this guy throws a lot of crap against the wall, but his general movement has been accurate.

So this is interesting
MHver3 ‏@MHver3
Georgetown and Nova in talks with Atlantic 10

That is what worries me the most. Everyone here seems to think we will be okay by assuming the Big East basketball schools will hang together and maybe poach the better A-10 schools. What I fear is the A-10 taking Georgetown and Villanova and no one else.

[Litehouse]

I see this as the only good scenario for us.  Gotta hope the ACC gets depleted quickly, and everyone from the Big East doesn't jump ship too soon so there's more of us than them.

Pac 12 stays put
Big Ten takes Maryland, Rutgers, UVa and UNC
SEC takes Florida State and Clemson
Big 12 takes Louisville, Georgia Tech, Miami, NC State, Va.Tech, and USF
Boise State and SDSU go back to the MWC

ACC and Big East left-overs merge so there's 12 for football and 20 for basketball…
ACC - Wake Forest, Duke, BC
In limbo – Syracuse, Pitt, ND
Big East – UConn, Cincy, Memphis, Temple, SMU, Houston, UCF
Basketball schools – Marquette, DePaul, Georgetown, Villanova, St. Johns, Providence, Seton Hall

[Groin_pull]

I realize that, but I do not think Buzz is leaving. Also, while MU has been good about releasing players, they do not have to release them. I doubt that MU will release a player that wants to leave, because the Big East is not the Big East anymore.

True. But do you think Buzz is going to hang around and coach in a mid-conference league?

I don't.

[brewcity77]

I can't see anyone bailing to the A-10. That would be a massive financial hit.

[T-Bone]

....and what exactly do you think they will find that's illegal?

I don't know anything illegal is going on.  
However it's a HUGE pool of revenue for all parties involved.  It just seems like something the government WOULD create a committee to investigate the balance of power between all parties involved.  

[WarriorDoc]

That is what worries me the most. Everyone here seems to think we will be okay by assuming the Big East basketball schools will hang to gether and maybe poach the better A-10 schools. What I fear is the A-10 taking Georgetown and Villanova and no one else.

I don't know how conference contracts work, but I just could not see schools like Georgetown and Nova taking that big of a financial hit and saying "yep now we're safe" by nuzzling in with the likes of Duquesne and Fordham if they can't get into the ACC.  Wouldn't it be more likely that St. John's, Maruqette, Seton Hall, Providence, etc--all try to pick up the best of the best from the A-10 and try to form a new conference?

[Groin_pull]

I see this as the only good scenario for us.  Gotta hope the ACC gets depleted quickly, and everyone from the Big East doesn't jump ship too soon so there's more of us than them.

Pac 12 stays put
Big Ten takes Maryland, Rutgers, UVa and UNC
SEC takes Florida State and Clemson
Big 12 takes Louisville, Georgia Tech, Miami, NC State, Va.Tech, and USF
Boise State and SDSU go back to the MWC

ACC and Big East left-overs merge so there's 12 for football and 20 for basketball…
ACC - Wake Forest, Duke, BC
In limbo – Syracuse, Pitt, ND
Big East – UConn, Cincy, Memphis, Temple, SMU, Houston, UCF
Basketball schools – Marquette, DePaul, Georgetown, Villanova, St. Johns, Providence, Seton Hall

But will the Pac-12 stay put? Sounds crazy, but I say they'll take another run at Texas and Oklahoma. Of the four mega conferences, the Big XII would appear to be the weakest. If the Pac-12 wants to make a huge splash, why not? Perhaps their hard line approach towards Texas (and its Longhorn Network) won't be so hard in the near future.

Maybe it's crazy...but what isn't in college sports?

[Litehouse]

But will the Pac-12 stay put? Sounds crazy, but I say they'll take another run at Texas and Oklahoma. Of the four mega conferences, the Big XII would appear to be the weakest. If the Pac-12 wants to make a huge splash, why not? Perhaps their hard line approach towards Texas (and its Longhorn Network) won't be so hard in the near future.

Maybe it's crazy...but what isn't in college sports?

Maybe this?  We just have to hope that both the Big 12 and ACC don't survive, and the Big East can somehow merge with whatever is left on the conference that gets depleted the most.

Pac 12 adds Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State
Big Ten takes Maryland, Rutgers and stays at 14
SEC stays at 14
ACC takes Syracuse, Pitt, ND, UConn, Louisville, USF

Big 12 and Big East left-overs merge…
Big 12 – Baylor, Kansas, K-State, Iowa State, WVU, TCU
Big East – Cincy, Memphis, Temple, SMU, Houston, UCF
Basketball schools – Marquette, DePaul, G-Town, Nova, St. Johns, Providence, SHU

[Groin_pull]

Maybe this?  We just have to hope that both the Big 12 and ACC don't survive, and the Big East can somehow merge with whatever is left on the conference that gets depleted the most.

Pac 12 adds Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State
Big Ten takes Maryland, Rutgers and stays at 14
SEC stays at 14
ACC takes Syracuse, Pitt, ND, UConn, Louisville, USF

Big 12 and Big East left-overs merge…
Big 12 – Baylor, Kansas, K-State, Iowa State, WVU, TCU
Big East – Cincy, Memphis, Temple, SMU, Houston, UCF
Basketball schools – Marquette, DePaul, G-Town, Nova, St. Johns, Providence, SHU

That's a lot of wishing and hoping, but that's all MU can do. I think you're right about the Pac-12 adding those four schools. And I'm starting to hear more and more about UNC and UVA going to the Big 10....with Clemson and FSU going to the SEC or Big XII. If so, it may be the Big East and ACC that end up merging.

Or maybe we'll have one conference with 40 football schools. Gosh, imagine the TV revenue for that.  

[The Equalizer]

Now, I certainly think d1 football is going to get consolidated. But it's gotta include a model more like 4x20 - which gets 80 schools and more states. Somehow the leftover programs (like Boise, Houston) will find their way in - but at what role? Will a combined/consolidated Mountain West and Conf USA stick around as the 5th conference (with considerably less powers)?

For basketball, this will get even more complex and controversial. I can see them dwindling the number of D1 bball teams down to 150 or something (and they should, 365 is stupid), but the BCS schools won't just be able to pick up their ball and go home that easy.

The BCS schools alone probably can't, but the 124 FBS probably schools could:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NCAA_Division_I_FBS_football_programs

That squeezes about 220 basketball schools out of the $10.8 billion basketball tournament pool and preseves the current BCS football funding.  

It protects them from antitrust by providing an option for any school that fields an FBS level football program to enter the division--but perhaps not one of the top 4 conferences.  Since most of the 220 schools would either lack the desire or the resources to move up, the FBS schools won't have to worry about the current dillution of revenue by automatic qualifiers and the occaitional low- to mid-major that pulls an upset (or makes a deep run).

MU, Georgetown, Villanova, St. Johns, Butler, Xavier et. al would be left out--they'd become the best teams in the new non-FBS-division, and no longer eligilbe for the marquee end-of-season basketball tournament--whatever it begins to be called.  We'd be relegated to a division slotted between current D1 and current D2.

[Litehouse]

MU, Georgetown, Villanova, St. Johns, Butler, Xavier et. al would be left out--they'd become the best teams in the new non-FBS-division, and no longer eligilbe for the marquee end-of-season basketball tournament--whatever it begins to be called.  We'd be relegated to a division slotted between current D1 and current D2.

That's when we have to join forces with all the other basketball only schools (WCC, A-10, Horizon, etc) and start our own organization with our own post-season tourney.  We could pay the players somehow to ensure we can still compete for the best recruits.  Paying a stipend for 12 or 13 players is a lot more manageable than paying an entire football team and every other student on the non-revenue sports, so we could actually have an advantage over the football schools.  Hopefully it never gets to that point though.

[wiscwarrior]

....and what exactly do you think they will find that's illegal?

Don't have to find anything illegal. It's called "political pressure"... follow the federal grants...

[ChicosBailBonds]

That's when we have to join forces with all the other basketball only schools (WCC, A-10, Horizon, etc) and start our own organization with our own post-season tourney.  We could pay the players somehow to ensure we can still compete for the best recruits.  Paying a stipend for 12 or 13 players is a lot more manageable than paying an entire football team and every other student on the non-revenue sports, so we could actually have an advantage over the football schools.  Hopefully it never gets to that point though.

And what do you do about women's basketball, golf, soccer, cross country?  The Title IX lawsuits will happen faster than we can imagine.

[Aughnanure]

The BCS schools alone probably can't, but the 124 FBS probably schools could:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NCAA_Division_I_FBS_football_programs

That squeezes about 220 basketball schools out of the $10.8 billion basketball tournament pool and preseves the current BCS football funding.  

It protects them from antitrust by providing an option for any school that fields an FBS level football program to enter the division--but perhaps not one of the top 4 conferences.  Since most of the 220 schools would either lack the desire or the resources to move up, the FBS schools won't have to worry about the current dillution of revenue by automatic qualifiers and the occaitional low- to mid-major that pulls an upset (or makes a deep run).

MU, Georgetown, Villanova, St. Johns, Butler, Xavier et. al would be left out--they'd become the best teams in the new non-FBS-division, and no longer eligilbe for the marquee end-of-season basketball tournament--whatever it begins to be called.  We'd be relegated to a division slotted between current D1 and current D2.

No, relax. That's not happening.

[Coleman]

Just join the A-10 and be done with it. Nova, G-town, St. Johns and Providence should come too.

[UDPride]

Ive stated several times that A10 schools will have the most leverage in the basketball-only world. The A10 recently added Butler and VCU when football-destined schools Temple and Charlotte left. That was a very good swap and further focused the league on hoops-only.

The A10 has security and right now security is 9/10ths of the law.  There are league rivalries, schedules, TV deals, conference tourney sites (Barclays), NCAA automatic berths, and many other things going for the A10. Most important: more people want into the A10 than out of it. We can speculate on what teams might want in at any given moment -- some better or worse than others -- but the list of schools will continue to get longer and more competitive as conference shakeups occur.

The top A10 schools are not going to leave the stability and security of the A10 for some new-fangled league that takes 4-5 years to get an NCAA automatic bid, has no conference tournament home, no TV package, etc. Not when they see what's going on right now with everyone jockeying for new leagues left and right.  No A10 school is going to jump from whats already the best basketball-only league to jumpstart a new league with new members whom have made most of their decisions over the last 15 years on nothing but the dollar bill. These A10 schools would be fearful that they join a new league and in 2-3 years some members of the new league split town and leave them behind (see also Great Midwest Conference, Conference-USA).

Five years ago, a new hoops-only league with A10 schools might have been possible. But the A10 has added Sloo, Butler, VCU, and are looking to caulk their own hulls and fasten the hatches for the long haul.

Considering most of those Big East schools refuse to even schedule A10 schools in the non-con, I think its also safe to say there's not as much love out there as some think.  The A10 has simply moved on and I dont think they feel they even need the BE basketball schools anymore.  They have never operated with that massive BE football money and have managed to earn their success on far smaller budgets. And yet many A10 schools have outstanding athletic departments as good or better than some BE schools.

Money is not the answer to everything.  I think the BE hoops schools waited far too long and now they may pay a price and get left out if the A10 doesnt feel the need to throw a life vest.

While everyone is ultimately out for their own survival, there is very little interest in A10 schools exiting the A10 to align with BE schools. If realignment occurs, the A10 will be the one doing the poaching because the existing A10 schools are not going to voluntarily give up their negotiating strength.  A10 schools dont need the BE schools. BE schools may need the A10 schools however -- heck they may need them just on numbers alone to qualify as an automatic bid conference. Big difference.

[GGGG]

If Dayton is invited to the Big East, they leave in a second.  All your words to convince yourself doesn't change that fact.

[brewcity77]

Agreed, Sultan. Not sure how many Big East basketball-only schools could maintain their non-revenue sports if they were making the small potatoes that the A-10 does. Every single A-10 school would get a massive revenue boost if they joined the Big East.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Ive stated several times that A10 schools will have the most leverage in the basketball-only world. The A10 recently added Butler and VCU when football-destined schools Temple and Charlotte left. That was a very good swap and further focused the league on hoops-only.

The A10 has security and right now security is 9/10ths of the law.  There are league rivalries, schedules, TV deals, conference tourney sites (Barclays), NCAA automatic berths, and many other things going for the A10. Most important: more people want into the A10 than out of it. We can speculate on what teams might want in at any given moment -- some better or worse than others -- but the list of schools will continue to get longer and more competitive as conference shakeups occur.

The top A10 schools are not going to leave the stability and security of the A10 for some new-fangled league that takes 4-5 years to get an NCAA automatic bid, has no conference tournament home, no TV package, etc. Not when they see what's going on right now with everyone jockeying for new leagues left and right.  No A10 school is going to jump from whats already the best basketball-only league to jumpstart a new league with new members whom have made most of their decisions over the last 15 years on nothing but the dollar bill. These A10 schools would be fearful that they join a new league and in 2-3 years some members of the new league split town and leave them behind (see also Great Midwest Conference, Conference-USA).

Five years ago, a new hoops-only league with A10 schools might have been possible. But the A10 has added Sloo, Butler, VCU, and are looking to caulk their own hulls and fasten the hatches for the long haul.

Considering most of those Big East schools refuse to even schedule A10 schools in the non-con, I think its also safe to say there's not as much love out there as some think.  The A10 has simply moved on and I dont think they feel they even need the BE basketball schools anymore.  They have never operated with that massive BE football money and have managed to earn their success on far smaller budgets. And yet many A10 schools have outstanding athletic departments as good or better than some BE schools.

Money is not the answer to everything.  I think the BE hoops schools waited far too long and now they may pay a price and get left out if the A10 doesnt feel the need to throw a life vest.

While everyone is ultimately out for their own survival, there is very little interest in A10 schools exiting the A10 to align with BE schools. If realignment occurs, the A10 will be the one doing the poaching because the existing A10 schools are not going to voluntarily give up their negotiating strength.  A10 schools dont need the BE schools. BE schools may need the A10 schools however -- heck they may need them just on numbers alone to qualify as an automatic bid conference. Big difference.

This is where I think you are wrong.  If the Big East dissolves as a football conference, the basketball schools retain the automatic berth, the home (MSG) for the tournament, and a more lucrative television contract than the A-10.  There will be no need to wait 5 years for an autobid, not going to happen.  Even if an entirely new league was started, that has been waived in the past for the big boys of which MU, G'Town, Nova, Memphis, etc all fit in that regard. The NCAA has done it in the past and no reason why they wouldn't again with those types of schools.

If G'Town, MU, Nova, St. John's, Providence, DePaul said to a select group of A-10 schools to join a league, it would happen and it would happen quickly.  More money, better pedigree, better television deal, better markets.

[Litehouse]

And what do you do about women's basketball, golf, soccer, cross country?  The Title IX lawsuits will happen faster than we can imagine.

Pay the womens b-ball team something also if we need to.  Then we could drop most of the other sports.  The main reason we have most of them is to maintain the minimum for NCAA's D1 status.  If we aren't in the NCAA anymore, we don't need those sports.

[GGGG]

Rumors are that the B10 schools could clear $30M per year by 2016...even before new television contracts start in 2017.  Chicos, do you think that might be the case?

[ChicosBailBonds]

Pay the womens b-ball team something also if we need to.  Then we could drop most of the other sports.  The main reason we have most of them is to maintain the minimum for NCAA's D1 status.  If we aren't in the NCAA anymore, we don't need those sports.

I honestly think this is a pipe dream.  The NCAA membership is something adhered to by the University Presidents.  I can't imagine for the life of me schools breaking off to form their own association and only sponsor a few sports, it basically runs against what student athletics is supposed to be about.  I would bet you would sooner see some schools just throw in the towel all together than to do that.  More would be willing to just drop down a level in divisions than start a new governing body.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Rumors are that the B10 schools could clear $30M per year by 2016...even before new television contracts start in 2017.  Chicos, do you think that might be the case?

Well I can tell you that the contracts with BTN allow providers (Uverse, DTV, DISH, Comcast, etc) to not pick up the new markets if they wish.  That is in every deal. 

It gets interesting if a provider decides to do that.   I don't want to get too much further into it because of contractual details, but what I'm sharing above is fairly common industry knowledge that I'm sure will be reported in the coming days, weeks, months about the changing landscape.

The long and short of it is that the money COULD be there but that will be dependent on whether those that pay for it are willing to do so.  With sports fees absolutely insane right now, don't look for that to happen across the board.  The breaking point has been hit for many.  Some providers will do it, others will stand up to it....economically the math no longer works.  You're better off losing customers than paying the fees.  If that happens to a large enough extent, then the money they get will not come to the level they desire.  That's on the cable deal.  On the other deals, with ESPN and ABC, etc, who knows what is in their contracts but if it is like others, they will probably be handled upon end life of the current deals.  No reason for anyone to do leagues a favor in advance, especially when some of these schools won't be joining for a few years out anyway.

Fun times.  Definitely the Haves and the Have Nots....Wisconsin should never lose a game to us again with the amount of money that athletic department has (yet we continually beat them in men's and women's soccer, basketball, etc)....makes it that much more enjoyable. 

[MU82]

You want a real worst-case scenario for MU? How 'bout this:

Within a year or three, all this shakes out and there are four football superconferences. They make a ton of money, not only for their football programs but for their entire athletic programs. The basketball-only schools scramble to form their own alliances.

Then the powers-that-be decide to start paying athletes a small percentage of the money taken in. As if recruiting big-time players isn't difficult enough for the non-superconferences, how about trying to do it with that going on? Why would any recruit play at Marquette or Georgetown when he can make more money at Texas or Michigan?

Might be way out there, but 10 years ago, anybody who would have predicted that what's going on now would have called it way out there.

It's all speculation anyway, all of it, so we shouldn't drive ourselves too crazy. Of course, that's what we do ...

[Pakuni]

You want a real worst-case scenario for MU? How 'bout this:

Within a year or three, all this shakes out and there are four football superconferences. They make a ton of money, not only for their football programs but for their entire athletic programs. The basketball-only schools scramble to form their own alliances.

Then the powers-that-be decide to start paying athletes a small percentage of the money taken in. As if recruiting big-time players isn't difficult enough for the non-superconferences, how about trying to do it with that going on? Why would any recruit play at Marquette or Georgetown when he can make more money at Texas or Michigan?

Might be way out there, but 10 years ago, anybody would have predicted that what's going on now is way out there.

Title IX pretty much makes this impossible. Because if you're going to pay star quarterback $, you're going to have to pay backup field hockey player the same. Even with all the additional revenues, I doubt many schools can afford that.

Historically speaking, college football programs tend to spend what they earn, so that even as revenues have continued to spiral upward, athletic departments still aren't awash in cash. USA Today had a story last year that showed that in four of the past five years, athletic department expenses have grown larger than their revenues. Only about 20 D-I athletic departments in their survey (out of more than 200) were in the black. And many of them are in the black because they use student fees to help prop up the athletic departments.
So, if most schools can't break even under the current system, how's that going to happen when they start paying players?
And, more philosophically, will the public remain as interested when they drop all pretenses and "college football" becomes "minor league football?"

[Litehouse]

I honestly think this is a pipe dream.  The NCAA membership is something adhered to by the University Presidents.  I can't imagine for the life of me schools breaking off to form their own association and only sponsor a few sports, it basically runs against what student athletics is supposed to be about.  I would bet you would sooner see some schools just throw in the towel all together than to do that.  More would be willing to just drop down a level in divisions than start a new governing body.

I wouldn't call it a pipe dream, it's more like our final option to keep high level basketball if all the football schools decide to form their own basketball tournament and shut out the rest of us basketball schools.  If it comes down to that or dropping down to D3 and playing Carroll, St. Norberts, Ripon, and Lawrence, I vote for paying the players.

[Aughnanure]

Ive stated several times that A10 schools will have the most leverage in the basketball-only world. The A10 recently added Butler and VCU when football-destined schools Temple and Charlotte left. That was a very good swap and further focused the league on hoops-only.

The A10 has security and right now security is 9/10ths of the law.  There are league rivalries, schedules, TV deals, conference tourney sites (Barclays), NCAA automatic berths, and many other things going for the A10. Most important: more people want into the A10 than out of it. We can speculate on what teams might want in at any given moment -- some better or worse than others -- but the list of schools will continue to get longer and more competitive as conference shakeups occur.

The top A10 schools are not going to leave the stability and security of the A10 for some new-fangled league that takes 4-5 years to get an NCAA automatic bid, has no conference tournament home, no TV package, etc. Not when they see what's going on right now with everyone jockeying for new leagues left and right.  No A10 school is going to jump from whats already the best basketball-only league to jumpstart a new league with new members whom have made most of their decisions over the last 15 years on nothing but the dollar bill. These A10 schools would be fearful that they join a new league and in 2-3 years some members of the new league split town and leave them behind (see also Great Midwest Conference, Conference-USA).

Five years ago, a new hoops-only league with A10 schools might have been possible. But the A10 has added Sloo, Butler, VCU, and are looking to caulk their own hulls and fasten the hatches for the long haul.

Considering most of those Big East schools refuse to even schedule A10 schools in the non-con, I think its also safe to say there's not as much love out there as some think.  The A10 has simply moved on and I dont think they feel they even need the BE basketball schools anymore.  They have never operated with that massive BE football money and have managed to earn their success on far smaller budgets. And yet many A10 schools have outstanding athletic departments as good or better than some BE schools.

Money is not the answer to everything.  I think the BE hoops schools waited far too long and now they may pay a price and get left out if the A10 doesnt feel the need to throw a life vest.

While everyone is ultimately out for their own survival, there is very little interest in A10 schools exiting the A10 to align with BE schools. If realignment occurs, the A10 will be the one doing the poaching because the existing A10 schools are not going to voluntarily give up their negotiating strength.  A10 schools dont need the BE schools. BE schools may need the A10 schools however -- heck they may need them just on numbers alone to qualify as an automatic bid conference. Big difference.

No one is going to an A-10 with St Joe's, La Salle, George Washington, Duquesne, Fordham, and Rhode Island.

[bilsu]

That is like arguing the 13th player on the team has to be good. Every conference has to have bottom teams and bottom teams do not get NCAA tournament bids.

[Aughnanure]

That is like arguing the 13th player on the team has to be good. Every conference has to have bottom teams and bottom teams do not get NCAA tournament bids.

We don't need 6 of them. We want, at most, a 12 team league. St. Louis can be our bottom-feeder. Or Dayton. Or Creighton. Or Seton Hall. Or DePaul.  But not St. Bonaventure. Not f***ing Fordham. We will have plenty of candidates for bottom feeder positions.