New Big East Schools May Rejoin Their Old Conferences

[The Equalizer]

Now, I certainly think d1 football is going to get consolidated. But it's gotta include a model more like 4x20 - which gets 80 schools and more states. Somehow the leftover programs (like Boise, Houston) will find their way in - but at what role? Will a combined/consolidated Mountain West and Conf USA stick around as the 5th conference (with considerably less powers)?

For basketball, this will get even more complex and controversial. I can see them dwindling the number of D1 bball teams down to 150 or something (and they should, 365 is stupid), but the BCS schools won't just be able to pick up their ball and go home that easy.

The BCS schools alone probably can't, but the 124 FBS probably schools could:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NCAA_Division_I_FBS_football_programs

That squeezes about 220 basketball schools out of the $10.8 billion basketball tournament pool and preseves the current BCS football funding.  

It protects them from antitrust by providing an option for any school that fields an FBS level football program to enter the division--but perhaps not one of the top 4 conferences.  Since most of the 220 schools would either lack the desire or the resources to move up, the FBS schools won't have to worry about the current dillution of revenue by automatic qualifiers and the occaitional low- to mid-major that pulls an upset (or makes a deep run).

MU, Georgetown, Villanova, St. Johns, Butler, Xavier et. al would be left out--they'd become the best teams in the new non-FBS-division, and no longer eligilbe for the marquee end-of-season basketball tournament--whatever it begins to be called.  We'd be relegated to a division slotted between current D1 and current D2.

[Litehouse]

MU, Georgetown, Villanova, St. Johns, Butler, Xavier et. al would be left out--they'd become the best teams in the new non-FBS-division, and no longer eligilbe for the marquee end-of-season basketball tournament--whatever it begins to be called.  We'd be relegated to a division slotted between current D1 and current D2.

That's when we have to join forces with all the other basketball only schools (WCC, A-10, Horizon, etc) and start our own organization with our own post-season tourney.  We could pay the players somehow to ensure we can still compete for the best recruits.  Paying a stipend for 12 or 13 players is a lot more manageable than paying an entire football team and every other student on the non-revenue sports, so we could actually have an advantage over the football schools.  Hopefully it never gets to that point though.

[wiscwarrior]

....and what exactly do you think they will find that's illegal?

Don't have to find anything illegal. It's called "political pressure"... follow the federal grants...

[ChicosBailBonds]

That's when we have to join forces with all the other basketball only schools (WCC, A-10, Horizon, etc) and start our own organization with our own post-season tourney.  We could pay the players somehow to ensure we can still compete for the best recruits.  Paying a stipend for 12 or 13 players is a lot more manageable than paying an entire football team and every other student on the non-revenue sports, so we could actually have an advantage over the football schools.  Hopefully it never gets to that point though.

And what do you do about women's basketball, golf, soccer, cross country?  The Title IX lawsuits will happen faster than we can imagine.

[Aughnanure]

The BCS schools alone probably can't, but the 124 FBS probably schools could:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NCAA_Division_I_FBS_football_programs

That squeezes about 220 basketball schools out of the $10.8 billion basketball tournament pool and preseves the current BCS football funding.  

It protects them from antitrust by providing an option for any school that fields an FBS level football program to enter the division--but perhaps not one of the top 4 conferences.  Since most of the 220 schools would either lack the desire or the resources to move up, the FBS schools won't have to worry about the current dillution of revenue by automatic qualifiers and the occaitional low- to mid-major that pulls an upset (or makes a deep run).

MU, Georgetown, Villanova, St. Johns, Butler, Xavier et. al would be left out--they'd become the best teams in the new non-FBS-division, and no longer eligilbe for the marquee end-of-season basketball tournament--whatever it begins to be called.  We'd be relegated to a division slotted between current D1 and current D2.

No, relax. That's not happening.

[Coleman]

Just join the A-10 and be done with it. Nova, G-town, St. Johns and Providence should come too.

[UDPride]

Ive stated several times that A10 schools will have the most leverage in the basketball-only world. The A10 recently added Butler and VCU when football-destined schools Temple and Charlotte left. That was a very good swap and further focused the league on hoops-only.

The A10 has security and right now security is 9/10ths of the law.  There are league rivalries, schedules, TV deals, conference tourney sites (Barclays), NCAA automatic berths, and many other things going for the A10. Most important: more people want into the A10 than out of it. We can speculate on what teams might want in at any given moment -- some better or worse than others -- but the list of schools will continue to get longer and more competitive as conference shakeups occur.

The top A10 schools are not going to leave the stability and security of the A10 for some new-fangled league that takes 4-5 years to get an NCAA automatic bid, has no conference tournament home, no TV package, etc. Not when they see what's going on right now with everyone jockeying for new leagues left and right.  No A10 school is going to jump from whats already the best basketball-only league to jumpstart a new league with new members whom have made most of their decisions over the last 15 years on nothing but the dollar bill. These A10 schools would be fearful that they join a new league and in 2-3 years some members of the new league split town and leave them behind (see also Great Midwest Conference, Conference-USA).

Five years ago, a new hoops-only league with A10 schools might have been possible. But the A10 has added Sloo, Butler, VCU, and are looking to caulk their own hulls and fasten the hatches for the long haul.

Considering most of those Big East schools refuse to even schedule A10 schools in the non-con, I think its also safe to say there's not as much love out there as some think.  The A10 has simply moved on and I dont think they feel they even need the BE basketball schools anymore.  They have never operated with that massive BE football money and have managed to earn their success on far smaller budgets. And yet many A10 schools have outstanding athletic departments as good or better than some BE schools.

Money is not the answer to everything.  I think the BE hoops schools waited far too long and now they may pay a price and get left out if the A10 doesnt feel the need to throw a life vest.

While everyone is ultimately out for their own survival, there is very little interest in A10 schools exiting the A10 to align with BE schools. If realignment occurs, the A10 will be the one doing the poaching because the existing A10 schools are not going to voluntarily give up their negotiating strength.  A10 schools dont need the BE schools. BE schools may need the A10 schools however -- heck they may need them just on numbers alone to qualify as an automatic bid conference. Big difference.

[GGGG]

If Dayton is invited to the Big East, they leave in a second.  All your words to convince yourself doesn't change that fact.

[brewcity77]

Agreed, Sultan. Not sure how many Big East basketball-only schools could maintain their non-revenue sports if they were making the small potatoes that the A-10 does. Every single A-10 school would get a massive revenue boost if they joined the Big East.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Ive stated several times that A10 schools will have the most leverage in the basketball-only world. The A10 recently added Butler and VCU when football-destined schools Temple and Charlotte left. That was a very good swap and further focused the league on hoops-only.

The A10 has security and right now security is 9/10ths of the law.  There are league rivalries, schedules, TV deals, conference tourney sites (Barclays), NCAA automatic berths, and many other things going for the A10. Most important: more people want into the A10 than out of it. We can speculate on what teams might want in at any given moment -- some better or worse than others -- but the list of schools will continue to get longer and more competitive as conference shakeups occur.

The top A10 schools are not going to leave the stability and security of the A10 for some new-fangled league that takes 4-5 years to get an NCAA automatic bid, has no conference tournament home, no TV package, etc. Not when they see what's going on right now with everyone jockeying for new leagues left and right.  No A10 school is going to jump from whats already the best basketball-only league to jumpstart a new league with new members whom have made most of their decisions over the last 15 years on nothing but the dollar bill. These A10 schools would be fearful that they join a new league and in 2-3 years some members of the new league split town and leave them behind (see also Great Midwest Conference, Conference-USA).

Five years ago, a new hoops-only league with A10 schools might have been possible. But the A10 has added Sloo, Butler, VCU, and are looking to caulk their own hulls and fasten the hatches for the long haul.

Considering most of those Big East schools refuse to even schedule A10 schools in the non-con, I think its also safe to say there's not as much love out there as some think.  The A10 has simply moved on and I dont think they feel they even need the BE basketball schools anymore.  They have never operated with that massive BE football money and have managed to earn their success on far smaller budgets. And yet many A10 schools have outstanding athletic departments as good or better than some BE schools.

Money is not the answer to everything.  I think the BE hoops schools waited far too long and now they may pay a price and get left out if the A10 doesnt feel the need to throw a life vest.

While everyone is ultimately out for their own survival, there is very little interest in A10 schools exiting the A10 to align with BE schools. If realignment occurs, the A10 will be the one doing the poaching because the existing A10 schools are not going to voluntarily give up their negotiating strength.  A10 schools dont need the BE schools. BE schools may need the A10 schools however -- heck they may need them just on numbers alone to qualify as an automatic bid conference. Big difference.

This is where I think you are wrong.  If the Big East dissolves as a football conference, the basketball schools retain the automatic berth, the home (MSG) for the tournament, and a more lucrative television contract than the A-10.  There will be no need to wait 5 years for an autobid, not going to happen.  Even if an entirely new league was started, that has been waived in the past for the big boys of which MU, G'Town, Nova, Memphis, etc all fit in that regard. The NCAA has done it in the past and no reason why they wouldn't again with those types of schools.

If G'Town, MU, Nova, St. John's, Providence, DePaul said to a select group of A-10 schools to join a league, it would happen and it would happen quickly.  More money, better pedigree, better television deal, better markets.

[Litehouse]

And what do you do about women's basketball, golf, soccer, cross country?  The Title IX lawsuits will happen faster than we can imagine.

Pay the womens b-ball team something also if we need to.  Then we could drop most of the other sports.  The main reason we have most of them is to maintain the minimum for NCAA's D1 status.  If we aren't in the NCAA anymore, we don't need those sports.

[GGGG]

Rumors are that the B10 schools could clear $30M per year by 2016...even before new television contracts start in 2017.  Chicos, do you think that might be the case?

[ChicosBailBonds]

Pay the womens b-ball team something also if we need to.  Then we could drop most of the other sports.  The main reason we have most of them is to maintain the minimum for NCAA's D1 status.  If we aren't in the NCAA anymore, we don't need those sports.

I honestly think this is a pipe dream.  The NCAA membership is something adhered to by the University Presidents.  I can't imagine for the life of me schools breaking off to form their own association and only sponsor a few sports, it basically runs against what student athletics is supposed to be about.  I would bet you would sooner see some schools just throw in the towel all together than to do that.  More would be willing to just drop down a level in divisions than start a new governing body.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Rumors are that the B10 schools could clear $30M per year by 2016...even before new television contracts start in 2017.  Chicos, do you think that might be the case?

Well I can tell you that the contracts with BTN allow providers (Uverse, DTV, DISH, Comcast, etc) to not pick up the new markets if they wish.  That is in every deal. 

It gets interesting if a provider decides to do that.   I don't want to get too much further into it because of contractual details, but what I'm sharing above is fairly common industry knowledge that I'm sure will be reported in the coming days, weeks, months about the changing landscape.

The long and short of it is that the money COULD be there but that will be dependent on whether those that pay for it are willing to do so.  With sports fees absolutely insane right now, don't look for that to happen across the board.  The breaking point has been hit for many.  Some providers will do it, others will stand up to it....economically the math no longer works.  You're better off losing customers than paying the fees.  If that happens to a large enough extent, then the money they get will not come to the level they desire.  That's on the cable deal.  On the other deals, with ESPN and ABC, etc, who knows what is in their contracts but if it is like others, they will probably be handled upon end life of the current deals.  No reason for anyone to do leagues a favor in advance, especially when some of these schools won't be joining for a few years out anyway.

Fun times.  Definitely the Haves and the Have Nots....Wisconsin should never lose a game to us again with the amount of money that athletic department has (yet we continually beat them in men's and women's soccer, basketball, etc)....makes it that much more enjoyable. 

[MU82]

You want a real worst-case scenario for MU? How 'bout this:

Within a year or three, all this shakes out and there are four football superconferences. They make a ton of money, not only for their football programs but for their entire athletic programs. The basketball-only schools scramble to form their own alliances.

Then the powers-that-be decide to start paying athletes a small percentage of the money taken in. As if recruiting big-time players isn't difficult enough for the non-superconferences, how about trying to do it with that going on? Why would any recruit play at Marquette or Georgetown when he can make more money at Texas or Michigan?

Might be way out there, but 10 years ago, anybody who would have predicted that what's going on now would have called it way out there.

It's all speculation anyway, all of it, so we shouldn't drive ourselves too crazy. Of course, that's what we do ...

[Pakuni]

You want a real worst-case scenario for MU? How 'bout this:

Within a year or three, all this shakes out and there are four football superconferences. They make a ton of money, not only for their football programs but for their entire athletic programs. The basketball-only schools scramble to form their own alliances.

Then the powers-that-be decide to start paying athletes a small percentage of the money taken in. As if recruiting big-time players isn't difficult enough for the non-superconferences, how about trying to do it with that going on? Why would any recruit play at Marquette or Georgetown when he can make more money at Texas or Michigan?

Might be way out there, but 10 years ago, anybody would have predicted that what's going on now is way out there.

Title IX pretty much makes this impossible. Because if you're going to pay star quarterback $, you're going to have to pay backup field hockey player the same. Even with all the additional revenues, I doubt many schools can afford that.

Historically speaking, college football programs tend to spend what they earn, so that even as revenues have continued to spiral upward, athletic departments still aren't awash in cash. USA Today had a story last year that showed that in four of the past five years, athletic department expenses have grown larger than their revenues. Only about 20 D-I athletic departments in their survey (out of more than 200) were in the black. And many of them are in the black because they use student fees to help prop up the athletic departments.
So, if most schools can't break even under the current system, how's that going to happen when they start paying players?
And, more philosophically, will the public remain as interested when they drop all pretenses and "college football" becomes "minor league football?"

[Litehouse]

I honestly think this is a pipe dream.  The NCAA membership is something adhered to by the University Presidents.  I can't imagine for the life of me schools breaking off to form their own association and only sponsor a few sports, it basically runs against what student athletics is supposed to be about.  I would bet you would sooner see some schools just throw in the towel all together than to do that.  More would be willing to just drop down a level in divisions than start a new governing body.

I wouldn't call it a pipe dream, it's more like our final option to keep high level basketball if all the football schools decide to form their own basketball tournament and shut out the rest of us basketball schools.  If it comes down to that or dropping down to D3 and playing Carroll, St. Norberts, Ripon, and Lawrence, I vote for paying the players.

[Aughnanure]

Ive stated several times that A10 schools will have the most leverage in the basketball-only world. The A10 recently added Butler and VCU when football-destined schools Temple and Charlotte left. That was a very good swap and further focused the league on hoops-only.

The A10 has security and right now security is 9/10ths of the law.  There are league rivalries, schedules, TV deals, conference tourney sites (Barclays), NCAA automatic berths, and many other things going for the A10. Most important: more people want into the A10 than out of it. We can speculate on what teams might want in at any given moment -- some better or worse than others -- but the list of schools will continue to get longer and more competitive as conference shakeups occur.

The top A10 schools are not going to leave the stability and security of the A10 for some new-fangled league that takes 4-5 years to get an NCAA automatic bid, has no conference tournament home, no TV package, etc. Not when they see what's going on right now with everyone jockeying for new leagues left and right.  No A10 school is going to jump from whats already the best basketball-only league to jumpstart a new league with new members whom have made most of their decisions over the last 15 years on nothing but the dollar bill. These A10 schools would be fearful that they join a new league and in 2-3 years some members of the new league split town and leave them behind (see also Great Midwest Conference, Conference-USA).

Five years ago, a new hoops-only league with A10 schools might have been possible. But the A10 has added Sloo, Butler, VCU, and are looking to caulk their own hulls and fasten the hatches for the long haul.

Considering most of those Big East schools refuse to even schedule A10 schools in the non-con, I think its also safe to say there's not as much love out there as some think.  The A10 has simply moved on and I dont think they feel they even need the BE basketball schools anymore.  They have never operated with that massive BE football money and have managed to earn their success on far smaller budgets. And yet many A10 schools have outstanding athletic departments as good or better than some BE schools.

Money is not the answer to everything.  I think the BE hoops schools waited far too long and now they may pay a price and get left out if the A10 doesnt feel the need to throw a life vest.

While everyone is ultimately out for their own survival, there is very little interest in A10 schools exiting the A10 to align with BE schools. If realignment occurs, the A10 will be the one doing the poaching because the existing A10 schools are not going to voluntarily give up their negotiating strength.  A10 schools dont need the BE schools. BE schools may need the A10 schools however -- heck they may need them just on numbers alone to qualify as an automatic bid conference. Big difference.

No one is going to an A-10 with St Joe's, La Salle, George Washington, Duquesne, Fordham, and Rhode Island.

[bilsu]

That is like arguing the 13th player on the team has to be good. Every conference has to have bottom teams and bottom teams do not get NCAA tournament bids.

[Aughnanure]

That is like arguing the 13th player on the team has to be good. Every conference has to have bottom teams and bottom teams do not get NCAA tournament bids.

We don't need 6 of them. We want, at most, a 12 team league. St. Louis can be our bottom-feeder. Or Dayton. Or Creighton. Or Seton Hall. Or DePaul.  But not St. Bonaventure. Not f***ing Fordham. We will have plenty of candidates for bottom feeder positions.