Is the NBA draft lottery fixed?

[Celtic Truth]

Is the Draft lottery fixed? I really don't know. In some ways it seams like it really is rigged but I kind of find it hard to believe. Some things just don't seam right though like the NBA owned hornets getting the #1 pick. The cavs and bulls both getting #1 picks in order to pick the obvious top players from their hometowns(Lebron, DRose). Then the cavs doing the near impossible in getting 3 of the last 4 #1 picks after Lebron ditches them and Dan Gilbert makes a stink about it.

I don't know what to think, what's the consencus?

[Skitch]

I'm sure if you tried hard enough you could come up with a conspiracy theory that fit every team in the lottery.  Earlier today I read on Twitter that the Bucks new owners were promised that they would "win" the lottery which was the final selling point and made them willing to pay $550 million instead of the estimated $400 million value. 

[Celtic Truth]

I agree, a lot of the teams could fit into some sort of conspiracy theory. If the celtics or lakers won, it would be because they are big markets with large fan bases and a lot of history. And if the bucks won it could be because they want to transition into the new ownership.

[jesmu84]

Maybe. But I think the bigger issue is that it rewards incompetence and tanking.

[wadesworld]

Maybe. But I think the bigger issue is that it rewards incompetence and tanking.

I don't get why this argument comes up so much for the NBA but not in other sports.  At least in the NBA they give teams without the worst record to get the 1st pick overall vs. the NFL and such where it just goes strictly based off of record, where tanking is guaranteed to pay off.

[Celtic Truth]

The difference between the NBA and NFL is that the NBA has way more games to tank. This is much worse for the fans who have to watch 82 pathetic games compared to just 16. The difference in win totals for an nfl team that tanks is maybe 2 or 3 games. A team good enough to win 5 games could tank and only win 2. But in the NBA a 40 win caliber team could tank and only win 20, that's a huge difference. Also in the nba 1 player can turn around a franchise, but it is harder for 1 rookie to turn around a football team.

[Lennys Tap]

I don't get why this argument comes up so much for the NBA but not in other sports.  At least in the NBA they give teams without the worst record to get the 1st pick overall vs. the NFL and such where it just goes strictly based off of record, where tanking is guaranteed to pay off.

It's because a superstar/franchise player can put a bad team only a player or two away from contention in the NBA. A stud in the NFL is only one of 22 starters. (possible exception - Peyton Manning type QB available).

Sorry for being redundant - Celtic posted (the truth) while I was typing.

[jesmu84]

I don't get why this argument comes up so much for the NBA but not in other sports.  At least in the NBA they give teams without the worst record to get the 1st pick overall vs. the NFL and such where it just goes strictly based off of record, where tanking is guaranteed to pay off.

My apologies. I didn't mean to imply that it doesn't annoy me that similar circumstances occur in other sports as well. This thread just happened to be about the NBA draft.

[wadesworld]

My apologies. I didn't mean to imply that it doesn't annoy me that similar circumstances occur in other sports as well. This thread just happened to be about the NBA draft.

I gotcha. I was just saying that in general I only hear people complain about tanking in the NBA, when the NBA is the only sport that at least gives teams a chance that didn't have the worst record in that sport.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I don't get why this argument comes up so much for the NBA but not in other sports.  At least in the NBA they give teams without the worst record to get the 1st pick overall vs. the NFL and such where it just goes strictly based off of record, where tanking is guaranteed to pay off.

In my mind it is because in the NBA, one player in the draft can make all the difference in the world.  In other sports, one player has a much tougher time being that important.  A QB, sure, but even QB's usually take a long time to develop and be consistently good (usually).

So the tanking process for other sports doesn't happen as much because usually it takes many players to turn around a team.  Remember, the NBA draft only has 2 rounds. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

It's because a superstar/franchise player can put a bad team only a player or two away from contention in the NBA. A stud in the NFL is only one of 22 starters. (possible exception - Peyton Manning type QB available).

Sorry for being redundant - Celtic posted (the truth) while I was typing.

+1....I typed my response before reading the others.  Agree completely...scary, I used the QB example as well.  See, Lenny you and I are always thinking alike.

[Benny B]

I don't get why this argument comes up so much for the NBA but not in other sports.  At least in the NBA they give teams without the worst record to get the 1st pick overall vs. the NFL and such where it just goes strictly based off of record, where tanking is guaranteed to pay off.

Personally, I think that a) it's difficult to recognize when a team is actually tanking and when a team just plain sucks and b) even if/when tanking is recognized, fans are much more tolerant of it when it happens in the NBA... heck even if it is the right thing to do, resting your starters in week 17 will always be a controversial move in the NFL.

[barfolomew]

b) even if/when tanking is recognized, fans are much more tolerant of it when it happens in the NBA...

It is also winked at in the NHL. See Toews' and Kane's nice little break for the last week+ of the regular season, once the Blackhawks playoff position was more or less locked in.

The NBA and NHL are also similar in how significantly the style of play changes once the playoffs start.

[StillAWarrior]

As a Cleveland resident, if the NBA is trying to help the Cavaliers out, I'd request that they quit fixing the draft lottery and start fixing the season and playoffs.  By now, it's pretty apparent that the Cavs' management is too inept to effectively take advantage of fixing of the lottery.

[MU82]

Oh, the lottery is absolutely fixed.

Because if there's one thing the NBA wants, it's a successful franchise in Cleveland.

Lakers? Celtics? Sixers? To heck with 'em! It's all about the Cavs.

[ChicosBailBonds]

As a Cleveland resident, if the NBA is trying to help the Cavaliers out, I'd request that they quit fixing the draft lottery and start fixing the season and playoffs.  By now, it's pretty apparent that the Cavs' management is too inept to effectively take advantage of fixing of the lottery.

A lot of the conspiracy talk is that Cleveland got the pick to get Lebron to go back home as the nucleus of talent is there.

[reinko]

So a 15 billion dollar business,  is gonna stake it's livelihood on a guess that one player will return home for a swan song for a few years.

Yeah,  totally makes sense.

[ChicosBailBonds]

So a 15 billion dollar business,  is gonna stake it's livelihood on a guess that one player will return home for a swan song for a few years.

Yeah,  totally makes sense.

Not my theory, trust me.  Just saying what some folks throw out there.

[jesmu84]

I loved the idea that Andy glockner was positing on Twitter the other day: LeBron taking 1 year contracts for different teams and trying to bring as many championships to as many teams as possible.I'd love to see LeBron on golden state, Phoenix, maybe Orlando in a few years.

[Benny B]

I loved the idea that Andy glockner was positing on Twitter the other day: LeBron taking 1 year contracts for different teams and trying to bring as many championships to as many teams as possible.I'd love to see LeBron on golden state, Phoenix, maybe Orlando in a few years.

If ever there was going to be a conspiracy in the NBA, it would be to prevent LeBron from doing exactly that.

But my guess as to what's behind the curtain here is if you look at a cross-section of the NBA's fans, you're probably going to see a group of people with a predisposition to conspiracies, superstition and fables:



Lots of conspiracies in NASCAR, too, I hear.



And the NFL...



And the NHL (although the loopies in the hockey world have pretty much been quarantined to Eastern Michigan):



And no... I didn't forget to pick on baseball.  It's just that baseball fans are pretty well-grounded... it's the players themselves who are the whack jobs.