It was the worst of halves, it was the best of halves.

[The Equalizer]

In case you don't know,  a "trap game" is when you play a bad team right before playing a good team.  It's a trap because the team is looking ahead to their game against the good team and not focusing on the bad team.

People are making fun of you because our next game is against Georgetown... the worst team in the conference. Last night wasn't a trap game. The Georgetown game could be.

Also, trap games are a myth. Just a fans way to blame their team laying an egg on something besides their team playing poorly.

Not a myth, and completely consistent with basic human psychology. It's the same thinking behind the proverb "Don't count your chickens before they hatch."  It's hard to accept the notion that 18 to 20-year-old college students are immune from the tendency to look past the perceived easy win and ignore the subsequent challenge.

You could easily argue that we were a trap game for Baylor, them playing bottom-tier pick in the Big East mid-week in a game everyone expected them to easily win, followed by a big weekend rematch of the 2021 championship game against the #2 national preseason pick. 

Similary, Chicago State was a trap game for us, following a big win over Georgia Tech, and prior to the game against Baylor.  Against a team MU should have run out of the building from the tip, Chicago State led much of the first half and rallied to make the game uncomfortably close at the under 4 timeout.

The players aren't stupid. They know that Georgetown is terrible and UConn is likely the biggest game of the season. It's natural for them to lock in their minds an easy win on Saturday and already be thinking about UConn.  And I'd be shocked if Shaka isn't working hard to keep them focused on Georgetown.

[Pepe Sylvia]

I dunno man, this team can probably hang a hundred on georgetown.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Not a myth, and completely consistent with basic human psychology. It's the same thinking behind the proverb "Don't count your chickens before they hatch."  It's hard to accept the notion that 18 to 20-year-old college students are immune from the tendency to look past the perceived easy win and ignore the subsequent challenge.

You could easily argue that we were a trap game for Baylor, them playing bottom-tier pick in the Big East mid-week in a game everyone expected them to easily win, followed by a big weekend rematch of the 2021 championship game against the #2 national preseason pick. 

Similary, Chicago State was a trap game for us, following a big win over Georgia Tech, and prior to the game against Baylor.  Against a team MU should have run out of the building from the tip, Chicago State led much of the first half and rallied to make the game uncomfortably close at the under 4 timeout.

The players aren't stupid. They know that Georgetown is terrible and UConn is likely the biggest game of the season. It's natural for them to lock in their minds an easy win on Saturday and already be thinking about UConn.  And I'd be shocked if Shaka isn't working hard to keep them focused on Georgetown.

Or you know, maybe we just played well against Baylor and they played poorly. If you believe KenPom numbers, were now the better team than Baylor so maybe we were just the better team playing at home.

For every game where a team played poorly in a "trap game" I can find you 5 examples where a team played as expected or better in one.

[MU82]

For every game where a team played poorly in a "trap game" I can find you 5 examples where a team played as expected or better in one.

Yep. "Trap game" is about as meaningful as results by uniform color.

[pbiflyer]

While Omax was a monster in the second half, I love how basically everyone is contributing. Oso was a bit quiet last night but still had a couple of really nice passes on the interior and defended well down the stretch. Kolek had a great game. Kam did what he does, and he seems to be getting pretty consistent at it.  Stevie seems to finally be a part of the offense now. And the bench guys seem to consistently contribute solid minutes. It is definitely a team that is greater than the sum of its parts. Big, physical teams are going to give them trouble all season, however. We saw it with Providence and again with STJ. Don't know that Shaka has an answer for that.

Was watching some highlights and the commentator said about Oso's assist something along the lines of the upcoming assist highlight is NSFW because it is so nasty. 

[The Equalizer]

Or you know, maybe we just played well against Baylor and they played poorly.

The fact that Baylor played poorly wasn't in dispute.  The question is why.

The most plausible explanation is that they took Marquette lightly and were already focused on Gonzaga for all the reasons I cited previously.

If you believe KenPom numbers, were now the better team than Baylor so maybe we were just the better team playing at home.

Interesting  Are you suggesting that Baylor had some secret knowledge on 11/29 as to what Ken Pom would show on 1/3? 

Or is it more plausible to look at the facts that at the time the game was played, Baylor was more influenced by the 9th place Big East prediction and thus took their oppontent lightly?

For every game where a team played poorly in a "trap game" I can find you 5 examples where a team played as expected or better in one.

I think you inadvertently prove the reality of trap games.

5 out of 6 rather than 6 out of 6?  A 17% failure rate is high enough to suggest that poor results in trap games happen frequently enough to suggest the phenomenon is real.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

The most plausible explanation is that they took Marquette lightly and were already focused on Gonzaga for all the reasons I cited previously.

Is it though???

[PGsHeroes32]

The most plausible explanation is that they took Marquette lightly and were already focused on Gonzaga for all the reasons I cited previously.

Ladies and gentlemen, proof that you cannot in fact fix stupid.

[GoldenEagles03]

Not sure if this was posted anywhere yet or not but Butch Lee with the team after the game.  Pretty cool!

https://twitter.com/MarquetteMBB/status/1610694962806505472?t=FR88YoW4Kyawq8zeg21c1g&s=19

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The fact that Baylor played poorly wasn't in dispute.  The question is why.

The most plausible explanation is that they took Marquette lightly and were already focused on Gonzaga for all the reasons I cited previously.

Show your work here. How can you possibly state this as a certainty?

Interesting  Are you suggesting that Baylor had some secret knowledge on 11/29 as to what Ken Pom would show on 1/3?

That's not what I was saying. I'm saying now we have more information now than we did. Maybe one of the reasons for the score was that we are just better than Baylor and playing at home.

I think you inadvertently prove the reality of trap games.

5 out of 6 rather than 6 out of 6?  A 17% failure rate is high enough to suggest that poor results in trap games happen frequently enough to suggest the phenomenon is real.

....So every time a team plays poorly in a "trap game", 100% of the time it is because they were looking ahead to their next opponent. Again, show your work here.

[Jay Bee]

Road wins in the BE are great, no matter where they are.
And I subscribe to the tenet that defense travels.

However, I think MU's defense inadvertently flew into Newark and got turned around in Penn Station before making it to Queens for the second half.

Why? Home team only wins 60% of the time

[The Equalizer]

Show your work here. How can you possibly state this as a certainty?

I didn't state it as a certainty.  I said it was the most plausible explanation. BTW, you haven't shown your work that proves trap games are a myth.

That's not what I was saying. I'm saying now we have more information now than we did. Maybe one of the reasons for the score was that we are just better than Baylor and playing at home.

But that information wasn't available at the time the game was played, which means it is entirely possible for Baylor to have taken MU lightly as an opponent and got caught looking ahead to Gonzaga.  For you to use this as evidence that trap games are a myth, you would have to demonstrate that Baylor knew that MU was a better team at the time the game was played (not 5 weeks later).

....So every time a team plays poorly in a "trap game", 100% of the time it is because they were looking ahead to their next opponent. Again, show your work here.

How about you show your work that proves 100% of the time it's a myth that teams look past a lightly regarded opponent to a high-profile game that follows?

But since you asked, using KenPom's numbers from 11/4, MU should have been favored by only 0.7 points because they're better and then add 3.5 points for home-court advantage.  There's almost no chance a 26 point margin can be explained by the combination of MU being a better team and playing at home--which means there's a very high likelihood that there are other factors at play.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketball/comments/5xir8t/calculating_win_probability_and_margin_of_victory/

[wadesworld]

People put way too much stock into the psychology of these athletes.  They had a bad game because they had a bigger game a couple days later.  They are more dangerous because they've lost a couple games in a row and are now desperate.

Not many athletes at the level these guys are at are showing up to gyms thinking, "Eh, they're not good.  I don't have to play very hard tonight."  Or, "we're in good shape, we don't need a win this badly."

Kids show up to every game in order to win.

Sometimes bad teams can put a scare into (or even beat) a good team because they just have a better night.  Doesn't mean the star SG for the better team was dreaming up the defenses the top 10 team they're playing in a few days are going to be using against him and he forgot how to attack the defense he was facing that night.

[MU82]

People put way too much stock into the psychology of these athletes.  They had a bad game because they had a bigger game a couple days later.  They are more dangerous because they've lost a couple games in a row and are now desperate.

Not many athletes at the level these guys are at are showing up to gyms thinking, "Eh, they're not good.  I don't have to play very hard tonight."  Or, "we're in good shape, we don't need a win this badly."

Kids show up to every game in order to win.

Sometimes bad teams can put a scare into (or even beat) a good team because they just have a better night.  Doesn't mean the star SG for the better team was dreaming up the defenses the top 10 team they're playing in a few days are going to be using against him and he forgot how to attack the defense he was facing that night.

Exactly. People think a guy is standing at the free-throw line thinking: "This game is going on, but the one I really want is Tuesday's." It's ridiculous. Athletes are wired to compete.

[Galway Eagle]

Exactly. People think a guy is standing at the free-throw line thinking: "This game is going on, but the one I really want is Tuesday's." It's ridiculous. Athletes are wired to compete.

While true taking your foot off the gas too early and going cold is 100% a thing. But yeah I'd say it's more likely that a player didn't sleep the night before, or has a cold, a bad day, has to take a dump, etc etc than it is that there's a real trap game where an entire team is in La La land about the next game.

Caveat is I do think there's a post big win lull that a team can start thinking they're bigger than they are and throw away a game due to lacking intensity that got them there.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I didn't state it as a certainty.  I said it was the most plausible explanation. BTW, you haven't shown your work that proves trap games are a myth.

You misunderstand. I was questioning how you could say that was "the most plausible explanation" as a certainty. I can think of over a dozen more plausible explanations.

But that information wasn't available at the time the game was played, which means it is entirely possible for Baylor to have taken MU lightly as an opponent and got caught looking ahead to Gonzaga.  For you to use this as evidence that trap games are a myth, you would have to demonstrate that Baylor knew that MU was a better team at the time the game was played (not 5 weeks later).

But since you asked, using KenPom's numbers from 11/4, MU should have been favored by only 0.7 points because they're better and then add 3.5 points for home-court advantage.  There's almost no chance a 26 point margin can be explained by the combination of MU being a better team and playing at home--which means there's a very high likelihood that there are other factors at play.

Again you are trying to counter an argument I didn't make. I'm not challenging that the Baylor game didn't meet the definition of what people refer to as a trap game. It did. I'm challenging that the most plausible explanation is that Baylor was daydreaming about playing Gonzaga in a few days and suggesting that a more plausible explanation is that we are the better team and were playing at home and that we played closer to our ceiling than they did to theirs. The "other factors at play" are the realities that basketball players aren't robots and basketball isn't played on paper. Sometimes teams play close to their ceiling. Sometimes they play close to their floor. On nights where a better team is playing close to their ceiling and a worse team is playing close to their floor, a 26 point margin can be the result.

How about you show your work that proves 100% of the time it's a myth that teams look past a lightly regarded opponent to a high-profile game that follows?

I'll be honest, I don't have it. To prove it, I would need to somehow filter out the results of "trap games" and compare those results to the results of all games where a better team plays a worse team and even then there would be limitations in the study. If you want to take that on, be my guest. But you need to acknowledge that you have offered nothing but the observation that sometimes (not even often just sometimes) good teams don't play well against bad teams in "trap games" (this of course also happens in non-trap games all the time) and your opinion that it must be because players/coaches are overlooking the opponent and thinking about their next game.

What I do have is the reality that you will not find any evidence of coaches or players stating that they are looking past their next opponent or don't have to take a opponent seriously. You will find ample evidence of coaches and players saying that they are focused on their next game regardless of the quality of opponent. As annoying as Wades' "The next game is the most important game of the season" schtick is, it's 100% true for players and coaches (not true for us bums on scoop). I think any coach who overlooks their next opponent or lets their players overlook their next opponent will not be a coach for very long.

[PointWarrior]

but what about a trap game played in baby blue uniforms?

Yep. "Trap game" is about as meaningful as results by uniform color.

[THRILLHO]

Exactly. People think a guy is standing at the free-throw line thinking: "This game is going on, but the one I really want is Tuesday's." It's ridiculous. Athletes are wired to compete.

I'm not saying trap games are real, but the people who think they are definitely don't think this.

[StillAWarrior]

The "other factors at play" are the realities that basketball players aren't robots and basketball isn't played on paper. Sometimes teams play close to their ceiling. Sometimes they play close to their floor. On nights where a better team is playing close to their ceiling and a worse team is playing close to their floor, a 26 point margin can be the result.

I think that this is not debatable. I also don't think it's necessarily inconsistent with the entire trap game theory. The key question is why a team plays close to their floor. For the record, I'm not particularly a proponent of the trap game theory. But succeeding in high level sports requires focus. When players (or teams) lose focus for some reason (fight with girlfriend, problems at home, not feeling well, exhaustion, etc.) they are more prone to playing near their floor. I think that what the "trap game" advocates are suggesting is that having a big game coming up can cause a team to lose focus and thus play closer to their floor.

[wadesworld]

I think some teams "play to the level of their opponent" because of the style their opponent brings.  When you're playing a team that is hot garbage, a lot of times it gets chaotic and/or choppy.  A lot of whistles and dead ball turnovers can cause the game to slow down and be ugly.  When you're playing a better opponent things can be cleaner and you get more into the flow of the game.  I don't think it's often because teams just think the opponent stinks so we're not going to play hard.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think that this is not debatable. I also don't think it's necessarily inconsistent with the entire trap game theory. The key question is why a team plays close to their floor. For the record, I'm not particularly a proponent of the trap game theory. But succeeding in high level sports requires focus. When players (or teams) lose focus for some reason (fight with girlfriend, problems at home, not feeling well, exhaustion, etc.) they are more prone to playing near their floor. I think that what the "trap game" advocates are suggesting is that having a big game coming up can cause a team to lose focus and thus play closer to their floor.

I think there are literally 1000s of factors that can impact a player's focus and I think the ones you listed are much more likely to have a meaningful impact than "looking past a bad opponent" and thinking about an upcoming good opponent. I also think there are a ton of more practical factors that go in to a team's play than a player's focus. Chief among them is that players are not robots. You can have a clearheaded player, alone in a gym taking shots from the same spot. He could make the first 10 and on the next 10 miss 3. It doesn't mean there's a "reason" he shot worse on the second ten, he's just a human trying his best and no human can play perfectly all the time even in the best of conditions.

[Newsdreams]

but what about a trap game played in baby blue uniforms?

On national TV! Double whammy!